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17 minutes ago, Van wink said:

33400 positives today, big jump.

Also a massive increase in testing numbers since yesterdays figures. Up by 72k so difficult to compare with previous weeks by number rather than by percentage. The previous seven day average was 7.4% . Todays figure looks like 8.7%.

I suspect the mass testing now taking place in Liverpool is going to skew the figures and prevent any valid comparison.

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10 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Also a massive increase in testing numbers since yesterdays figures. Up by 72k so difficult to compare with previous weeks by number rather than by percentage. The previous seven day average was 7.4% . Todays figure looks like 8.7%.

I suspect the mass testing now taking place in Liverpool is going to skew the figures and prevent any valid comparison.

Not sure the Liverpool figures have made that much difference but certainly we should be looking at trend rather than daily figures 

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7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Also a massive increase in testing numbers since yesterdays figures. Up by 72k so difficult to compare with previous weeks by number rather than by percentage. The previous seven day average was 7.4% . Todays figure looks like 8.7%.

I suspect the mass testing now taking place in Liverpool is going to skew the figures and prevent any valid comparison.

The huge amount of daily testings has to be weighed into the overall picture for sure, its a far off cry from those days of Spring when we had testings of only 10 or 20k a day...we simply do not know how many had been infected those days, its a complete guessing game for that period. Even now of course we dont know an exact daily number, no nation could know, but definitely  its  a much higher number of  infections that are being caught and counted.

Much was made yesterday of UK being the first nation to hit 50k deaths in Europe, as if we are some kind of Covid Pariah nation. Stats can be looked at and analysed in many ways of course, but when you see a nation that has the 2nd highest population in Europe and also a country, England, within that nation with the 2nd highest density of population compared to rest of mainland Europe, thats a double whammy that no other European nation comes close to matching, so no surprise to me that we hit 50k first.

Perhaps some other forum member knows but the 50k deaths in the UK is for all deaths with Covid 19 mentioned on the death certificate, not necessarily actually dying because of Covid. Does every other single European nation follow this route or do some just report deaths  from actual  cause from Covid?

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22 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Not sure the Liverpool figures have made that much difference but certainly we should be looking at trend rather than daily figures 

Trends yes.

If I read correctly there was a lull and then an uptick. - but too soon to say (REACT) if meaningful.

I suspect although only a personal opinion it's the school 1/2 term effect that came and went.

Be wary of the daily confirmed figures - who are we testing, where, how many times and so on. Any number of distortions from the actual regional prevalence both high (students) and low (self-employed).

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Thanks. This makes sense if my area is any guide. I was astonished to see case numbers rise from 7k to over 10k. I was hoping it was due to trail off. Yet, I keep reading R is now below 1. Must be a lag?

Not looking good up your way SONYC

 

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Yes, there is some truth in this Y.F.
 
I have found it difficult to align the number of positives by date with the number of tests due to different methods of reporting. This chart seems to give to best overview with tests by specimen date. Those with more than one test are only counted once. This is the one that should show accurate trends.
 
image.thumb.png.056aad642f9bbb3e62a6e11b2813dfe2.png
Edited by ricardo
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32 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

The huge amount of daily testings has to be weighed into the overall picture for sure, its a far off cry from those days of Spring when we had testings of only 10 or 20k a day...we simply do not know how many had been infected those days, its a complete guessing game for that period. Even now of course we dont know an exact daily number, no nation could know, but definitely  its  a much higher number of  infections that are being caught and counted.

Much was made yesterday of UK being the first nation to hit 50k deaths in Europe, as if we are some kind of Covid Pariah nation. Stats can be looked at and analysed in many ways of course, but when you see a nation that has the 2nd highest population in Europe and also a country, England, within that nation with the 2nd highest density of population compared to rest of mainland Europe, thats a double whammy that no other European nation comes close to matching, so no surprise to me that we hit 50k first.

Perhaps some other forum member knows but the 50k deaths in the UK is for all deaths with Covid 19 mentioned on the death certificate, not necessarily actually dying because of Covid. Does every other single European nation follow this route or do some just report deaths  from actual  cause from Covid?

As I understand the 50,000 + is people that died within 28 days of a positive Covid test. The number dieing with Covid mentioned on their death certificate is 62,000.

A bit like Sonyc here in the Midlands we have been in the higher 2 tiers for several weeks and numbers are still going up. 

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3 minutes ago, Well b back said:

As I understand the 50,000 + is people that died within 28 days of a positive Covid test. The number dieing with Covid mentioned on their death certificate is 62,000.

A bit like Sonyc here in the Midlands we have been in the higher 2 tiers for several weeks and numbers are still going up. 

YES - I think of Tier 2 as the Tier 3 waiting room.  Tier 3 does seem to have an effect though as expected.

It all adds up to this 4 week 'break' as being painful but necessary.

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5 minutes ago, ricardo said:
Yes, there is some truth in this Y.F.
 
I have found it difficult to align the number of positives by date with the number of tests due to different methods of reporting. This chart seems to give to best overview with tests by specimen date. Those with more than one test are only counted once. This is the one that should show accurate trends.
 
image.thumb.png.056aad642f9bbb3e62a6e11b2813dfe2.png

Yes agreed - I've always been doubtful from the very start (calling for random testing) as to how meaningful any non-random daily 'confirmed' case numbers are. They don't (or shouldn't) jump around by thousands daily up or down but follow a trend given the large numbers. 

I very much suspect the number shot up in September/October because of Students (easily and extensively tested) - but these are now dropping out to be replaced by more 'community' growth albeit at a slower but more deadly rate. 

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6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The Welsh lockdown doesn't seem to have done much good to their R rate.

image.png.a457042f09729c3c6d405967e88ddf4b.png

Thats their hospital admissions?...... you would expect a lag........maybe I have misunderstood that....what ia Hospital Admissions R

Edited by Van wink

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image.thumb.png.c2ac4e3132e0028e615c79b4f498173c.png

 

This chart also looks like a better way to look at hospitalisations over time. Appears to be flattening.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy         32961 - 623

France    35879 - 328

Spain     19096 - 349

Germany  20536 - 222

Edited by ricardo

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11 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Thats their hospital admissions?...... you would expect a lag........maybe I have misunderstood that....what ia Hospital Admissions R

The Welsh Lockdown began on 23rd Oct with R at almost its lowest point. It ended on the 9th Nov.

As they say in Yankee Land "Go figure".

Edited by ricardo

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42 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Not looking good up your way SONYC

 

No it isn't. 8 deaths reported today for the last 24 hours but no news on hospitals not bring able to cope as yet. On TV though last night the senior clinician stated he was worried for winter. The C19 unit is however currently experiencing higher numbers than in April.

Can't say I'm not worried but then maybe that's because I'm a worrier. Just heard that two of my cousins in London have tested positive too. Mild symptoms at present and hope it stays that way. The hospitalisation rates last wave were high because of London's big hit weren't they? The capital took the brunt. I've read too that oxygen supplies are running low in hospitals on the east coast of Yorkshire because of demand.

I don't know what the answer is policy-wise anymore. It's easy to use the keyboard and complain. At least no PPE complaints this time, nor ventilation worries, nor testing capacity (of course T & T is well criticised but numbers hugely up since April). And care homes are faring better?  As for the tiers and lockdown, maybe we have to see in a week or perhaps two?

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9 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The Welsh Lockdown began on 23rd Oct with R at almost its lowest point. It ended on the 9th Nov.

As they say in Yankee Land "Go figure".

What I can’t figure is what the graph is showing, what is Hospital Admissons R?

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1 minute ago, sonyc said:

No it isn't. 8 deaths reported today for the last 24 hours but no news on hospitals not bring able to cope as yet. On TV though last night the senior clinician stated he was worried for winter. The C19 unit is however currently experiencing higher numbers than in April.

Can't say I'm not worried but then maybe that's because I'm a worrier. Just heard that two of my cousins in London have tested positive too. Mild symptoms at present and hope it stays that way. The hospitalisation rates last wave were high because of London's big hit weren't they? The capital took the brunt. I've read too that oxygen supplies are running low in hospitals on the east coast of Yorkshire because of demand.

I don't know what the answer is policy-wise anymore. It's easy to use the keyboard and complain. At least no PPE complaints this time, nor ventilation worries, nor testing capacity (of course T & T is well criticised but numbers hugely up since April). And care homes are faring better?  As for the tiers and lockdown, maybe we have to see in a week or perhaps two?

Looking at the Coronavirus. dat site it does look like hospitalisations are flattening out. The BBC news said numbers have even declined in Liverpool and the North West so some good news there. You appear to be bearing the brunt at the moment but it does seem that there is spare capacity in other regions. Positives still low in Norwich although there has been a slight uptick.

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3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

What I can’t figure is what the graph is showing, what is Hospital Admissons R?

Its the rate of R determined by hospitalisation data. Don't ask me how they work it out.

I note that the ZOE app continues to show a slow decline in numbers.

Edited by ricardo

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This is the R by region by specimen date of positives. Don't ask me how they work that out either.

image.png.0a3a3bbc9b42bca0b9d72b9303928a1a.png

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10 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its the rate of R determined by hospitalisation data. Don't ask me how they work it out.

I note that the ZOE app continues to show a slow decline in numbers.

These are the figures for Welsh regions which can be understood .....as they say in Yankee land 😉

image.png

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20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

These are the figures for Welsh regions which can be understood .....as they say in Yankee land 😉

image.png

I reckon they must have all sat at home catching it then.😀

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2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Looks to have been effective.

A very clear effect. It was stated that only until mid November would they have known about the effect of their lockdown. Obviously I keep an eye on the Rhondda😉

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2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

A very clear effect. It was stated that only until mid November would they have known about the effect of their lockdown. Obviously I keep an eye on the Rhondda😉

As we do 😁

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ONS "The R rate for the UK is estimated to have fallen to between 1.0 and 1.2, the number of new daily infections remains around the 50,000 mark, the latest figures show."

Good to see R fallen, still a massive number of daily infections but some signs of progress, in some areas at least.

Edited by Van wink
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Just read up on the so called Mink variant of Covid 19 in North Denmark, which has between 5-7 mutations and can possibly render  vaccines useless and pretty much kill a persons immunity stone dead against Covid..no wonder Matt Hancock and other health professionals are concerned by this, if it got out and travelled the globe it really could be the ultimate nightmare.

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