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22 minutes ago, Herman said:

Maybe you lads could get angry about the right things for once.

 

This is the sort if thing that needs to be taken seriously.   Problem is our politics are so partisan and the drivers of this so associated with brexit etc that they can be dismissed as " campaigning lawyers" or conspiracy theorists. What it needs is a brexiteer or other "rwnj" to take up this angle

 

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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24 minutes ago, Herman said:

Maybe you lads could get angry about the right things for once.

 

So someone who has experience in developing vaccines to market gets appointed head of vaccine rollout 

You need to get your head examined, Heeman 

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Ever thought all the Ivor Cummings stuff smacks of the Climate Change debate.

The vast consensus of scientists all generally agree but with various nuances and are open minded to serious questioning but a small bunch of self-publicists with an agenda pick up on any old theory (they'll be a new one along tomorrow) and try to undermine the consensus because for any number of differing reasons they don't like the current consensus need for a lock down.

We've had - its seasonal, it's no worse than flu, it's confused with flu, it's already going away in the UK because we're British,  we all have herd immunity already, we've all had it already,  it only kills those already past it, its a Chinese plot, for balance its an American plot, its genetic, the great reset. Feel free to add any more you can think of.

Quite Trumpian in it's absurdity.

Edited by Yellow Fever
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14 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Ever thought all the Ivor Cummings stuff smacks of the Climate Change debate.

The vast consensus of scientists all generally agree but with various nuances and are open minded to serious questioning but a small bunch of self-publicists with an agenda pick up on any old theory (they'll be a new one along tomorrow) and try to undermine the consensus because for any number of differing reasons they don't like the current consensus need for a lock down.

We've had - its seasonal, it's no worse than flu, it's confused with flu, it's already going away in the UK because we're British,  we all have herd immunity already, we've all had it already,  it only kills those already past it, its a Chinese plot, for balance its an American plot, its genetic, the great reset. Feel free to add any more you can think of.

Quite Trumpian in it's absurdity.

👍👍👍

This, precisely this.

Climate change. All the climate scientists versus Nigel Lawson and the Telegraph.

Brexit. All the worlds economists versus Patrick Minford and the Telegraph.

Covid. All the worlds medical experts versus Ivor Cummins and the Telegraph.

 

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You know  a new low has been reached when the data stops being discussed because it can no longer support the projections that were made and the personal attacks become louder as the facts kick away the pillars of their argument.

The virus is doubling every seven days, ooh! well perhaps every 14 then, no? anyone for 21?

      errrrr well actually no it isn't so we won't talk about that anymore and they might forget it was ever mentioned.😉

 

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Meanwhile in the hospitals, where they don't have the luxury to indulge in conspiracy theories and pseudo-scientific speculation, they have to deal with actual infected bodies turning up at their doors.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/politics/judges-want-more-evidence-from-trump-campaign-as-election-cases-get-tossed/ar-BB1aMOHD?ocid=msedgdhp

I wonder if Guptra, Cummings et al will turn up at their local Covid ward to help out.

 

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Probably best to stick to your favourite thread than clutter this one with off topic stuff.

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Simple facts Ricardo. Infections are increasing. Deaths are increasing. Johnson locked down too late. We're now in lockdown.

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1 minute ago, Herman said:

Simple facts Ricardo. Infections are increasing. Deaths are increasing. Johnson locked down too late. We're now in lockdown.

Infections are static or declining. Deaths due to respitory ailments unfortunately will increase as they always do at this time of year. Covid will take its toll, mostly of the old and infirm sadly but on balance lockdown won't  alter  those facts and may even enhance them.

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44 minutes ago, Herman said:

Simple facts Ricardo. Infections are increasing. Deaths are increasing. Johnson locked down too late. We're now in lockdown.

Im not sure infections are rising overall, or rather the ONS doesn’t think they are:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/6november2020

There appears to be some regional variation.  With rates, unsurprisingly, highest in regions in the lowest tiers and where incidents in the first wave were lowest.

I am a mild supporter  of the second lockdown and can see the sense of a short pause ending with the economically  vital Christmas period and the start of vaccination.  I am not sure what locking down earlier would have achieved unless it was going to be for longer and ending at the same time

other snippets:

The ONS does not support the idea that schools going back is driving this:

"Since the start of the school year there has been no evidence of difference in the positivity rate between primary and secondary school teachers and their households, other key workers and their households, and other professions and their households."

there is no ONS data on the question of whether or not the infections is moving from university students to the vulnerable but it can be said that lecturers are not more affected than those in other professions.

Edited by Barbe bleu

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1 hour ago, horsefly said:

Meanwhile in the hospitals, where they don't have the luxury to indulge in conspiracy theories and pseudo-scientific speculation, they have to deal with actual infected bodies turning up at their doors.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/politics/judges-want-more-evidence-from-trump-campaign-as-election-cases-get-tossed/ar-BB1aMOHD?ocid=msedgdhp

I wonder if Guptra, Cummings et al will turn up at their local Covid ward to help out.

 

Isn’t that exactly what they have signed up to do? Treat the sick and dying? I don’t want to go to war so I won’t sign up for the army....

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344k  tests 

24957  - 413          7days ago  21915    14 days ago  23012

 

Inpatients  12949 down 50 on yesterday 

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy          37089 - 428

France     60486 - 828 worst I've seen for France

Spain       22516 - 347

Germany  22246 - 174

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7 hours ago, ricardo said:

You know  a new low has been reached when the data stops being discussed because it can no longer support the projections that were made and the personal attacks become louder as the facts kick away the pillars of their argument.

The virus is doubling every seven days, ooh! well perhaps every 14 then, no? anyone for 21?

      errrrr well actually no it isn't so we won't talk about that anymore and they might forget it was ever mentioned.😉

 

Have you noticed how the 250,000 deaths that kicked off this paranoia is never mentioned any more?

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6 hours ago, Herman said:

Simple facts Ricardo. Infections are increasing. Deaths are increasing. Johnson locked down too late. We're now in lockdown.

Deaths from missed cancer screening are increasing. Deaths from cardiac arrests are increasing. Deaths from suicides are increasing. But big pharma will make billions from the vaccine.

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6 hours ago, horsefly said:

Meanwhile in the hospitals, where they don't have the luxury to indulge in conspiracy theories and pseudo-scientific speculation, they have to deal with actual infected bodies turning up at their doors.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/politics/judges-want-more-evidence-from-trump-campaign-as-election-cases-get-tossed/ar-BB1aMOHD?ocid=msedgdhp

I wonder if Guptra, Cummings et al will turn up at their local Covid ward to help out.

 

Why would they turn up at the covid wards where no one is dying? Had you bothered to watch Bagsters latest video you will see that those deaths labelled as covid are all occurring at home. If people were seriously ill with covid they would now be in hospital and not at home. The home deaths are being either mislabelled or those for whom any kind of treatment is beyond usefulness due to age of the patient.

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23 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Whilst there is something in what you say regarding the cultural differences between European and S.E Asian populations that doesn't go anywhere near explaining the massive difference in outcomes that those countries achieved - and anyway during the first lockdown in this country we had no significant issues with the population adhering to the rules, apart of course from the the PM's chief advisor and a handful of Tory MPs.

And it isn't just about whether the lockdown is adhered to either, the timing is crucial. Those governments were much smarter than the UK (and some of the other Europeans) by going early and effectively nipping the virus spread in the bud, rather than let it spread everywhere and only try to contain it as it threatens to get completely out of control - this is in fact a totally different strategy, their lockdowns were intended to eliminate the virus completely and to a very large extent they suceeded. Our strategy, if you can call it a strategy, was never to eliminate it but to limit it to an acceptable level - without ever having a definition of what an acceptable level was, or in other words just trying to muddle through in entirely re-active mode and no clear objective or strategy.

Finally it's not a always cultural thing either, look at New Zealand and Greece for two examples who very successfully followed the SE Asian model, no dissent from the population, very few deaths and an economic hit for sure but nowhere as severe as the one we've inflicted on ourselves.

Of course I'm not suggesting that it is the only factor but however unpalatable it may be for some, if you look at the hugely differing outcomes that countries have achieved the defining factor has been the competence and decisiveness of the government response. This not only has a very direct effect, but it also creates a feedback loop - returning to the question of adherence it is very clear that leaders who are trusted and viewed as competent, such as Arden and Merkel or even Sturgeon have a positive impact on adherence to the restrictions. Even Johnson, despite his very obvious flaws, was given the benefit of doubt by most at the start of the crisis but that trust has completely evaporated as the shambles in the UK has steadily unfolded.

Ultimately it does boil down to leadership and intelligent, competent governance and the UK has come up a long way short on both counts.

Still very early in the history of this Covid 19 saga CM...you mentioned NZ and Greece...well...NZ...masses of open land space, small population, just 2 or 3 cities of any  decent size...a thousand miles or more from the nearest neighbours..if they are not very helpful things to keep a virus under control then i dont know what is. Greece?...yes, like Poland and a few other east European lands  the virus never really took off in the first wave, but now its different...Poland is having a very bad time now and Greece in the last few days has seen the start of a big rise in cases and deaths that doesnt bode well for the coming weeks and months.

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9 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Still very early in the history of this Covid 19 saga CM...you mentioned NZ and Greece...well...NZ...masses of open land space, small population, just 2 or 3 cities of any  decent size...a thousand miles or more from the nearest neighbours..if they are not very helpful things to keep a virus under control then i dont know what is. Greece?...yes, like Poland and a few other east European lands  the virus never really took off in the first wave, but now its different...Poland is having a very bad time now and Greece in the last few days has seen the start of a big rise in cases and deaths that doesnt bode well for the coming weeks and months.

Don't disagree with any of that but equally nothing there negates the plain facts that effective leadership and competent governance in the examples I quoted produced a markedly different and better outcome than would have otherwise been the case, and indeed was the case in most other countries.

If you still don't believe me then look at Australia who have all the same advantages as you outline for N.Z., arguably more in some respects, but whose low calibre government managed to produce a far worse outcome.

Must admit that I'm a bit puzzled as to why the notion that a government's actions (or inactions) in a national crisis have an impact on the outcomes is in any way contentious, I always thought that was rather the point about government and why we go to all the trouble and expense of electing them?

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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/covid-vaccine-taskforce-pr-taxpayer-cost-b1683887.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1604798698

The head of the UK's vaccine taskforce has hired eight public relations consultants at a cost to the taxpayer of £670,000, according to leaked documents seen by The Sunday Times.

Kate Bingham, who was appointed to chair the group by Boris Johnson, reportedly "insisted" on hiring the team from London agency Admiral Associates.

The consultants have been overseeing her media strategy since June at the equivalent salary of £167,000 a year each, it is claimed.

Kate who?

Venture capitalist Kate Bingham is married to a Tory minister & has *no* experience in healthcare. So @BorisJohnson made her head of his “vaccines taskforce”.

 

 

 

 

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On 07/11/2020 at 09:34, ricardo said:

It is hard not to conclude that some people are just impervious to logic even when the facts are clearly laid out for them.

 

I watched this as far as the first 15 minutes and had to switch off as it clearly starts with a false premise and goes downhill from there.

It seems to think the current Covid 'excess' deaths as of mid October mean there is no significant second wave. Given that these deaths mid October stem from infections 4 to 6 weeks earlier (late August early September) when the virus prevalence was at much lower levels then it is not surprising that they are not at the 1000's per week yet. Perhaps they should compare such weekly deaths with say mid February 2020 (and wishfully ignore what soon followed). They also seem to completely misunderstand that modelled 'projections' are just that. Projections assuming we don't change our ways / restrictions and are used to inform choices. Changes in restrictions take 4 ot 6 weeks anyway to trickle through to 'deaths'.

All in all it no wonder that most scientists simply pass on such self-opinionated nonsense.

All that said by all means question the numbers or perceived facts but not in an agenda driven 'shock-jock' you-tube hit manner. I suppose it sells advertising / books.

However perhaps one should make one overriding point about all these pet theories ultimately arguing not to lock down and let it run its course. Its called risk analysis that anybody credible in power has to do to guide their choices.

What are the risks to 'no-lockdown' strategy and these pet theories if they're WRONG about the virus - hundreds of thousands of deaths, long Covid, and economic, NHS (let alone political) collapse.

What are the risks to a modest lockdown strategy as at present - in short we know the size of economic hit and we can 'control' the virus. 

It really is no-brainer for those that have to make hard choices as opposed to those that can can just play but with no consequences.

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344k  tests 

20572 - 156         7days ago  23254    14 days ago  19790

positives have declined by 2.5% over the past seven days.

no doubling over over 7 , 14, 21 or even 28 days

 

Inpatients  12949 the usual no update at weekends

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy          39811 - 425

France     86852 - 304 massive positives, comparitively few deaths.

Spain      no update

Germany  17119 - 71

Edited by ricardo
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2 hours ago, ricardo said:

 

344k  tests 

20572 - 156         7days ago  23254    14 days ago  19790

positives have declined by 2.5% over the past seven days.

no doubling over over 7 , 14, 21 or even 28 days

 

Inpatients  12949 the usual no update at weekends

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy          39811 - 425

France     86852 - 304 massive positives, comparitively few deaths.

Spain      no update

Germany  17119 - 71

Is that maths correct ???   I've had a few drinks watching the footy but surely it's more than 2.5% ???

Edited by Mark .Y.

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9 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Is that maths correct ???   I've had a few drinks watching the footy but surely it's more than 2.5% ???

I’ve had a few too but it looks nearer 12% to the casual drinker 😁

Edited by Van wink

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19 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I’ve had a few too but it looks nearer 12% to the casual drinker 😁

Yeh, I first tried to blame it on the Hobgoblin............. but even my fuzzy brain saw through that 🙂

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47 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Is that maths correct ???   I've had a few drinks watching the footy but surely it's more than 2.5% ???

Take it up with the Coronavirus Dashboard, its their figure. Its the seven day totals, sorry if that wasn't clear.

image.png.fd49b684bc9583e31f1656e9cadb1b9c.png

Edited by ricardo

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

 

Agreed - even more evidence that the pale lump of lard was bounced into this ridiculous second Lockdown by projections that were wildly diverse and hyped up madly by the media (Radio Five Live for example) who were positively demanding action by banging on about 'up to 4000 deaths a day' and 'the NHS will be overwhelmed by x date in x city'. Whilst we pretty much had to lockdown in March through Government inaction  earlier, the Government should have fought tooth and nail to have avoided this one. They succumbed to Tweedledee and  Tweedledum though and now we are seeing through the inconsistencies of ........'the science'. You know the sort that said a few months ago that............'there is no evidence that wearing masks helps at all' (Jenny Harries and JVT). Even at the infamous SAGE meeting of September 21st where they called for the so called two week circuit breaker, there was (apparently) a note at the bottom of the minutes which read..........'the evidence base into the effectiveness and harms of these interventions is generally weak'. Surely any Government worth its salt would have latched onto that and widened its scope of  'scientific evidence'?? 

With the eulogising over Uncle Joe now likely to diminish somewhat this week ahead, attention will turn back to this 'second wave' and if (hopefully) infections continue to plateau / fall  with hospitalizations not that far behind, serious questions need to be asked as to how Hand **** and the odious Gove effectively teamed up with 'the science' to beat a timid PM into submission.      

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13 hours ago, A Load of Squit said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/covid-vaccine-taskforce-pr-taxpayer-cost-b1683887.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1604798698

The head of the UK's vaccine taskforce has hired eight public relations consultants at a cost to the taxpayer of £670,000, according to leaked documents seen by The Sunday Times.

Kate Bingham, who was appointed to chair the group by Boris Johnson, reportedly "insisted" on hiring the team from London agency Admiral Associates.

The consultants have been overseeing her media strategy since June at the equivalent salary of £167,000 a year each, it is claimed.

Kate who?

Venture capitalist Kate Bingham is married to a Tory minister & has *no* experience in healthcare. So @BorisJohnson made her head of his “vaccines taskforce”.

 

 

 

 

Why not Google her?

 

Bingham worked in business development for Vertex Pharmaceuticals and consultants Monitor Company before joining investment company Schroder Ventures in 1991 (now SV Health Investments). She became a management partner specializing in biotechnology, and has served on the boards of companies in the UK, US, Ireland, Sweden and Germany, including Autifony Therapeutics, Bicycle Therapeutics, Mestag Therapeutics, Pulmocide, Sitryx, and Zarodex Therapeutics. As of November 2020 she is listed as being a director of the following active companies: Mestag Therapeutics Ltd; Cybele Therapeutics Ltd; Bicycle tx Ltd; Bicycle Therapeutics plc; Sitryx Therapeutics Ltd; Pulmocide Ltd; Autofony Therapeutics Ltd; Bicycle RD Ltd; SV Health Investors Ltd; SCV Health Managers LLP.[1] She is also a board member of the Francis Crick Institute.

Her business skills are in drugs discovery, and has a reputation amongst pharmaceutical and vaccine companies

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