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5 hours ago, ricardo said:

Sounds a lot doesn't it? Until you realise that 1.4 million people work for the NHS. So just over 2%.

Total absence this time last year was a shade under 5%.Ā  At the height of the pandemic in April total absence was 6.2% compared to 4.1% the year before. I am not sure what the current total rate is.Ā 

https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/nhs-sickness-absence-rates/nhs-sickness-absence-rates---january-2018-to-march-2018-and-annual-summary-2010-11-to-2017-18#key-facts

Ā 

https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/nhs-sickness-absence-rates

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2 hours ago, paul moy said:

Errrrr... many are saying that lockdowns don't work. Read the posts.

I have.Ā  Ā No one is sayingĀ we should not lockdown if the hospitals areĀ full. What they are saying in so many words is that lockdowns and not a panacea, theyĀ are a very limited and very blunt instrument.

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34 minutes ago, ricardo said:

We have all seen the numbers slow and start to turn but that won't stop them claiming in a couple of weeks that its the Lockdown what done it.

ONS Figures

Ā 

Rate of growth in infections in England and Wales has stabilised ā€“ ONS

Rounding up those ONS figures, statisticians have said the rate of infections across England and Wales appears to be slowing down.

The ONSĀ said an estimated 618,700 people in EnglandĀ ā€“ one in 90 ā€“ had Covid-19 between 25 and 31 October; up from 568,100 the week before. But, while the infection rate has increased in recent weeks, the ā€œrate of increase is less steep compared with previous weeksā€, the ONS said.Ā Ruth Studley, the head of analysis for the Covid-19 infection survey, has said:

At a national level we are seeing infections slow across England and Wales but they are still increasing. Within England, every region apart from the north-east has shown increased levels of infection.

The level of infection in young adults and older teenagers appears to have levelled off recently. However, they continue to be the most likely to be infected despite increases in all other age groups.

When looking at new daily infections, the ONS said the rate across England appears to have stabilised.

The figures do not include people staying in hospitals or care homes and are based on more than 689,000 swab tests gathered from across the UK from people with and without symptoms.

More than 64,000 deaths involving Covid-19 have now occurred in the UK, according to figures produced by statistical agencies.

Ā 

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A huge amount of testing being done

344kĀ  testsĀ 

23387Ā  - 355 Ā Ā Ā  Ā  Ā Ā  7days agoĀ  24405Ā  Ā  14 days agoĀ  20530

Down on last week

InpatientsĀ  12999 up 58 on yesterdayĀ 

Ā 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

ItalyĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā  34505 - 428 very high for Italy

France Ā  Ā  58046 - 363

Spain Ā  Ā  Ā  21908 - 368

GermanyĀ  21757 - 162

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5 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Sorry but that isn't true, and you only have to look further afield to see that - life in China has been pretty normal for months apart from controls on people entering the country, as have a number of other countries in the region.

Of course the virus flared up again in this country because despite all the advance warning we had from SE Asia and continental Europe we locked down far too late with the virus widespread throughout the country and then unlocked with it still far too prevalent and no effective track and trace system. On top of that we allowed people to go on holiday to other areas with plenty of virus still present and return home without any checks.

Lockdowns can, and have reduced deaths (massively in some cases) in certain countries and whilst there is an inevitable economic hit everywhere as a result of the virus, those countries which have implemented effective public health responses and have also suffered substantially less economic damage than those that have botched it, such as ourselves - this IMO is the key point, in this country (and others) it is treated as a choice between prioritising public health or the economy, or achieving a 'balance' as our dimwits like to say.

What some of the smarter governments around the world realised right at the start was that protecting public health and their economies weren't alternatives but one and the same thing - because it makes no difference whether we're locked or unlocked, allowed to travel or not etc, etc. If this virus is circulating unchecked and people are dying, and scared stiff of catching it then our economy is knackered anyway - and let's face it, our government has certainly scared people sh*tless over the last few months so nothing is going to change that now, unless and until an effective vaccine arrives.

Couple of important things to remember..one is that the Italy / Euro strain of Covid and to the Brazil , C and S American strain of Covid were scientfically proven to be mutantly different to the Asian strain...plus a Chinese government can willingly force and tell its populationĀ  what to do, and Taiwanese, Korean, VietnameseĀ  governments have a populations that mostly rigidly adhere to what their governments say...Bill long ago, as well as others, noted that in the West the general populations just cant and wont adhere to a strict policy of rigid enforcementsĀ  with Covid..its not always about governments being smart or otherwise, its about what their subjects will go along with that matters.

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6 hours ago, The Real Buh said:

Itā€™s not something thatā€™s new. Doctors wonā€™t just keep people alive for the hell of it. Its also something thatā€™s not done lightly. They arenā€™t going to deny a healthy person who has a shot at survival the care they needed. Itā€™s immoral to keep people ā€œaliveā€ in name alone.

Of course it is not done lightly but if there was no lockdown then more of these horrid decisions would have to be made.Ā 

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15 minutes ago, Herman said:

Is that Brexit Bulldog David Davis??

That would be the one but (in this case) he's absolutely right! The pale lump of lard got well and truly shafted by some truly alarming projections which were so disparate in their range of outcomes as to be of little value and have been increasingly discredited since. As the official infection figures show (and as Ricardo consistently) points out there has been NO 'doubling every 7 day's (or 14 days or whatever it was) yet (once again) the British public has been so terrified of this virus (approx . 2/3rds support the new Lockdown) that they have lost all sense of perspective and backbone.Ā Whilst the Government (via the BOE) simply cranks up the printing presses to pay for furlough, the attitude seems to be '..............''I'm getting paid so why should I care'.'Ā Ā Ā 

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1 hour ago, Essjayess said:

Couple of important things to remember..one is that the Italy / Euro strain of Covid and to the Brazil , C and S American strain of Covid were scientfically proven to be mutantly different to the Asian strain...plus a Chinese government can willingly force and tell its populationĀ  what to do, and Taiwanese, Korean, VietnameseĀ  governments have a populations that mostly rigidly adhere to what their governments say...Bill long ago, as well as others, noted that in the West the general populations just cant and wont adhere to a strict policy of rigid enforcementsĀ  with Covid..its not always about governments being smart or otherwise, its about what their subjects will go along with that matters.

Indeed, and the attitude of a section of society to wearing of masks and social distancing has contributed enormously to us needing another lockdown.

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2 minutes ago, yellowrider120 said:

That would be the one but (in this case) he's absolutely right! The pale lump of lard got well and truly shafted by some truly alarming projections which were so disparate in their range of outcomes as to be of little value and have been increasingly discredited since. As the official infection figures show (and as Ricardo consistently) points out there has been NO 'doubling every 7 day's (or 14 days or whatever it was) yet (once again) the British public has been so terrified of this virus (approx . 2/3rds support the new Lockdown) that they have lost all sense of perspective and backbone.Ā Whilst the Government (via the BOE) simply cranks up the printing presses to pay for furlough, the attitude seems to be '..............''I'm getting paid so why should I care'.'Ā Ā Ā 

The key figures have always been hospital admissions and deaths imo, not potentially flawed positive tests.Ā  Just a few weeks ago many commentators were asking why we were still wearing face nappies, quarantining and closing bars early. Ā 

The current lockdown is justified in my view on admissions and deaths, as well as the attitude of careless and reckless selfish individuals openly flouting commonsense restrictions.Ā 

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3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

ONS Figures

Ā 

Rate of growth in infections in England and Wales has stabilised ā€“ ONS

Rounding up those ONS figures, statisticians have said the rate of infections across England and Wales appears to be slowing down.

The ONSĀ said an estimated 618,700 people in EnglandĀ ā€“ one in 90 ā€“ had Covid-19 between 25 and 31 October; up from 568,100 the week before. But, while the infection rate has increased in recent weeks, the ā€œrate of increase is less steep compared with previous weeksā€, the ONS said.Ā Ruth Studley, the head of analysis for the Covid-19 infection survey, has said:

At a national level we are seeing infections slow across England and Wales but they are still increasing. Within England, every region apart from the north-east has shown increased levels of infection.

The level of infection in young adults and older teenagers appears to have levelled off recently. However, they continue to be the most likely to be infected despite increases in all other age groups.

When looking at new daily infections, the ONS said the rate across England appears to have stabilised.

The figures do not include people staying in hospitals or care homes and are based on more than 689,000 swab tests gathered from across the UK from people with and without symptoms.

More than 64,000 deaths involving Covid-19 have now occurred in the UK, according to figures produced by statistical agencies.

Ā 

The figures roseĀ by 9% in a week , thatā€™s a slowing in the rate of increase, odd that some seem to view that as cases dropping.

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

The figures roseĀ by 9% in a week , thatā€™s a slowing in the rate of increase, odd that some seem to view that as cases dropping.

Yes. In football terms keep your eye on the ball....

Or alternatively playĀ the ball and not the man.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes. In football terms keep your eye on the ball....

Or alternatively playĀ the ball and not the man.

Indeed, as if it was better to be drowning in 7ft rather than 8ft of wateršŸ˜

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2 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Couple of important things to remember..one is that the Italy / Euro strain of Covid and to the Brazil , C and S American strain of Covid were scientfically proven to be mutantly different to the Asian strain...plus a Chinese government can willingly force and tell its populationĀ  what to do, and Taiwanese, Korean, VietnameseĀ  governments have a populations that mostly rigidly adhere to what their governments say...Bill long ago, as well as others, noted that in the West the general populations just cant and wont adhere to a strict policy of rigid enforcementsĀ  with Covid..its not always about governments being smart or otherwise, its about what their subjects will go along with that matters.

Whilst there is something in what you say regarding the cultural differences between European and S.E Asian populations that doesn't go anywhere near explaining the massive difference in outcomes that those countries achieved - and anyway during the first lockdown in this country we had no significant issues with the population adhering to the rules, apart of course from the the PM's chief advisor and a handful of Tory MPs.

And it isn't just about whether the lockdown is adhered to either, the timing is crucial. Those governments were much smarter than the UK (and some of the other Europeans) by going early and effectively nipping the virus spread in the bud, rather than let it spread everywhere and only try to contain it as it threatens to get completely out of control - this is in fact a totally different strategy, their lockdowns were intended to eliminate the virus completely and to a very large extent they suceeded. Our strategy, if you can call it a strategy, was never to eliminate it but to limit it to an acceptable level - without ever having a definition of what an acceptable level was, or in other words just trying to muddle through in entirely re-active mode and no clear objective or strategy.

Finally it's not a always cultural thing either, look at New Zealand and Greece for two examples who very successfully followed the SE Asian model, no dissent from the population, very few deaths and an economic hit for sure but nowhere as severe as the one we've inflicted on ourselves.

Of course I'm not suggesting that it is the only factor but however unpalatable it may be for some, if you look at the hugely differing outcomes that countries have achieved the defining factor has been the competence and decisiveness of the government response. This not only has a very direct effect, but it also creates a feedback loop - returning to the question of adherence it is very clear that leaders who are trusted and viewed as competent, such as Arden and Merkel or even Sturgeon have a positive impact on adherence to the restrictions. Even Johnson, despite his very obvious flaws, was given the benefit of doubt by most at the start of the crisis but that trust has completely evaporated as the shambles in the UK has steadily unfolded.

Ultimately it does boil down to leadership and intelligent, competent governance and the UK has come up a long way short on both counts.

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CM,Ā  I'mĀ  not sure but I suspect that Johnson has never been given the benefit of the doubtĀ by you!

I do think it would be interesting to know why SE Asia has done well.Ā  I suspectĀ  that compliant populations areĀ factors but I also think there is more to it. As far as I know Japan, S Korea and China did not follow the same model but all have coped well.

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9 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

CM,Ā  I'mĀ  not sure but I suspect that Johnson has never been given the benefit of the doubtĀ by you!

I do think it would be interesting to know why SE Asia has done well.Ā  I suspectĀ  that compliant populations areĀ factors but I also think there is more to it. As far as I know Japan, S Korea and China did not follow the same model but all have coped well.

You are quite right that I personally have never given Johnson the benefit of the doubt, but believe it or not I was prepared for the possibility that with a national crisis looming he might prove me wrong. šŸ™‚

But in practice I would say it was obvious very early on, by which I mean February and certainly early March, that Johnson wasn't going to provide the leadership or competence necessary to deliver an effective response. Nevertheless I still think it is true to say that a large majority of the population did give him the benefit of the doubt at the start and that an even larger majority of the population (including me) did adhere pretty strictly to the first lockdown restrictions.

The fact that there is now very significant resistance, in fact some outright defiance, to the recent lockdown measures is entirely Johnson's responsibility. With his incompetence, lack of leadership and general untrustworthiness he has very consistently over-promised and under-delivered.

So I think this notion that the SE Asian countries have been far more successful in dealing with the virus than us simply because their citizens are more compliant and adhered more strictly to what they were asked\told to do is just plain wrong, or at best is a minor but far from the main factor in their success.

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38 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

CM,Ā  I'mĀ  not sure but I suspect that Johnson has never been given the benefit of the doubtĀ by you!

I do think it would be interesting to know why SE Asia has done well.Ā  I suspectĀ  that compliant populations areĀ factors but I also think there is more to it. As far as I know Japan, S Korea and China did not follow the same model but all have coped well.

They stuck to the rules.Ā  We don't.Ā Ā 

Edited by paul moy
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1 hour ago, paul moy said:

They stuck to the rules.Ā  We don't.Ā Ā 

Possibly a big part but the truth is that whilst we know that SE Asia as a whole has done very well we dont know the reasons.Ā  The only people who believe they know for sure are a prisoner of their own bias.

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7 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Possibly a big part but the truth is that whilst we know that SE Asia as a whole has done very well we dont know the reasons.Ā  The only people who believe they know for sure are a prisoner of their own bias.

A few simple reasons. They've had this sort of thing before so took it seriously from the beginning. They were/are prepared. They do lockdowns properly with little to no caveats. They test and trace well.

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

A few simple reasons. They've had this sort of thing before so took it seriously from the beginning. They were/are prepared. They do lockdowns properly with little to no caveats. They test and trace well.

Also, when the people responsible for making and policing the rules break them they resign/get sacked.

Ā 

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10 hours ago, Bagster said:

God you lot are as thick as mince.

I'm embarrassed for you

It is hard not to conclude that some people are just impervious to logic even when the facts are clearly laid out for them.

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Maybe you lads could get angry about the right things for once.

Ā 

Edited by Herman
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3 hours ago, Herman said:

A few simple reasons. They've had this sort of thing before so took it seriously from the beginning. They were/are prepared. They do lockdowns properly with little to no caveats. They test and trace well.

I thinkĀ it fair to say that they took it seriously. And the other bits are well worth exploring.

And the controversial hypotheses...

Ā Some covid disease/death went unrecorded;Ā Ā they have wider spread immunity through previous similar infection;Ā Ā their climate is not as hospitable Ā to covid19 as European / S American;Ā  genetics, diet etc assist.

All possibilities.

Ā 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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12 hours ago, Bagster said:

God you lot are as thick as mince.

I'm embarrassed for you

Youā€™re talking to theĀ sound asleep woke brigade. They are probably convinced that world governments will just willingly hand these powers of control back once this is over.Ā Thatā€™s if it ever is, for as long as we continue to test for the virus thenĀ with the false positives rate,Ā the virus can never go away...

Hard to think anything other than the virus has been hijacked for other reasons after watching thisĀ 

Edited by Teemuā€™s right foot

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