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5 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I believe this too. Death numbers simply continue to increase. Sage and Indy Sage have indicated that numbers might be 500 per day by the end of the next 4 weeks. I think in some way the sheer numbers mean that people become less shocked and this part of the forum attests to that (it feels.) I am strongly of the view that the short fire break asked for by Starmer was the right think to do. No question that we will see increasing amounts of panic in the press. One interesting analysis though will emerge with the Welsh measures. In a way it has become like a controlled experiment in the scheme of things.For sure, the administration has been hounded in terms of attempts to restrict damage to smaller businesses. Of course, their attempts to change the 'pandemic dynamic' may fall very short. It will be interesting to see in late November.

I don’t know about Starmer, he seems to blow hot and cold, I was initially impressed but not so sure now, but certainly wouldn’t blame his mum for the name she gave him.

Its about the SAGE advice for me, I am aware that experts can seek to over enjoy the limelight, they don’t find themselves in it very often. I was around when CJD linked with BSE hit the headlines and working in public health at the time, the doomsday scenario outlined  by people like Lacey never came to fruition, I saw him at a conference at the time, but he was right about the link. 
Thing is now though this is not one or two experts, this is the worldwide body of mainstream public health advisors all reciting the same message, the rogue outliers get a lot more publicity than they deserve and do us all a disservice imho.

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28 minutes ago, Well b back said:

A lot less 5 weeks ago than if we have to Uturn. 
 

 

31 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I don’t know

This is the problem.  Lockdown suppresses the spread but it will not eliminate the disease that much is crystal clear. When we unlock the virus spreads again and with exponential growth it won't take much time to make up for lost ground

If we want to lockdown to reduce risk over Christmas, or because the vaccine is in sight, or because the NHS is looking full, fine -  but locking down just because numbers are high is pointless, it is just delaying the inevitable. Which would be quite bad if we push the peak into flu season

Edited by Barbe bleu
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I keep seeing this 500 figure today as well and 25,000 in hospital, you can have your head bitten off Sonyc rather mine for mentioning it lol.

Without any conspiracy theories I have a question that I am really struggling to get my head round. The same report also says as does that this morning that Goverment are preparing for more deaths than the first wave. I don’t get it, is it because the winter goes Oct - March and they are classing more as just a time difference, or-am I missing something ?. My head tells me from what I saw the other day treatments are really helping, so this should mean a drop, and as yet this is just not ravishing the care homes where our most frail citizens live and 2 weeks ago it had still avoided us oldies. Or is it that there weren’t really 100,000 cases a day way back but there will be now or even there was 100,000 now there will be 150,000. 
Something my head is missing but not sure what it is.

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44 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

 

This is the problem.  Lockdown suppresses the spread but it will not eliminate the disease that much is crystal clear. When we unlock the virus spreads again and with exponential growth it won't take much time to make up for lost ground

If we want to lockdown to reduce risk over Christmas, or because the vaccine is in sight, or because the NHS is looking full, fine -  but locking down just because numbers are high is pointless, it is just delaying the inevitable.

It’s not about eliminating the disease, nobody is claiming that. If infection rates are kept under control test track and trace will work, it will have a significant impact on slowing the spread, if linked of course with other properly targeted financial support measures.All we can hope to do is keep the lid on community spread, until a saviour of some sort comes along, but we have let things get out of control again and the writing was on the wall many months ago. 

Edited by Van wink

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8 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I don’t know about Starmer, he seems to blow hot and cold, I was initially impressed but not so sure now, but certainly wouldn’t blame his mum for the name she gave him.

Its about the SAGE advice for me, I am aware that experts can seek to over enjoy the limelight, they don’t find themselves in it very often. I was around when CJD linked with BSE hit the headlines and working in public health at the time, the doomsday scenario outlined  by people like Lacey never came to fruition, I saw him at a conference at the time, but he was right about the link. 
Thing is now though this is not one or two experts, this is the worldwide body of mainstream public health advisors all reciting the same message, the rogue outliers get a lot more publicity than they deserve and do us all a disservice imho.

My wife has the view that this pandemic is our 'war', if you get her meaning. Only octagenarians will remember WW2 and there will be a few on here I guess? I'm quite sure though that wartime will have had  a good deal of dissent and differing opinions!

My point on Starmer was not about his ability / aptitude but more a simple reference to the 2 week circuit break and 'in it' together measure that would have bought more time. I agree, it doesn't stop the spread but numbers might remain more 'manageable'. The worry is that things get out of hand. Probably a majority on this thread (just) feel the current measures are enough and they may be correct. And I keep hoping they are, whilst watching numbers increase. It is also unsettling here in the north of course. Perhaps there may be a different view from Norfolk based posters if they lived in a different area?  Norfolk seems one of the best places in a pandemic for sure.

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7 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I keep seeing this 500 figure today as well and 25,000 in hospital, you can have your head bitten off Sonyc rather mine for mentioning it lol.

Without any conspiracy theories I have a question that I am really struggling to get my head round. The same report also says as does that this morning that Goverment are preparing for more deaths than the first wave. I don’t get it, is it because the winter goes Oct - March and they are classing more as just a time difference, or-am I missing something ?. My head tells me from what I saw the other day treatments are really helping, so this should mean a drop, and as yet this is just not ravishing the care homes where our most frail citizens live and 2 weeks ago it had still avoided us oldies. Or is it that there weren’t really 100,000 cases a day way back but there will be now or even there was 100,000 now there will be 150,000. 
Something my head is missing but not sure what it is.

I also don't understand - it doesn't compute for me. Apparently, it will be worse. But how? Thta would mean more than another 40k covid deaths right? And many more for non-covid.

Edited by sonyc

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1 minute ago, sonyc said:

My wife has the view that this pandemic is our 'war', if you get her meaning. Only octagenarians will remember WW2 and there will be a few on here I guess? I'm quite sure though that wartime will have had  a good deal of dissent and differing opinions!

My point on Starmer was not about his ability / aptitude but more a simple reference to the 2 week circuit break and 'in it' together measure that would have bought more time. I agree, it doesn't stop the spread but numbers might remain more 'manageable'. The worry is that things get out of hand. Probably a majority on this thread (just) feel the current measures are enough and they may be correct. And I keep hoping they are, whilst watching numbers increase. It is also unsettling here in the north of course. Perhaps there may be a different view from Norfolk based posters if they lived in a different area?  Norfolk seems one of the best places in a pandemic for sure.

I lived in Wymondham until July, I didn’t realise how safe it was ( if safe is the right word ). We have to think of Covid all the time to keep our risks to a minimum.

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4 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I also don't understand - it doesn't compute for me. Apparently, it will be worse. But how? Thta would mean more than another 40k covid deaths right? And many more for non-covid.

I know it’s doing my head in.

I understand average deaths won’t be as accurate this time, if and only if China are to be believed, as flu there is apparently at its lower ever so should follow here especially as there are even tv ads for the flu jab.

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For those that want the evidence first.....we are again a few weeks behind France.
 

France will introduce a new coronavirus lockdown from Friday, President Emmanuel Macron has announced.

In his second major televised address in two weeks, Macron said France was “overwhelmed by the pace at which the virus is spreading," which was “worse than even the most pessimistic projections”.

Average daily infections more than doubled from 17,000 to 36,000 in the two weeks since his last address.

 

The latest figures represent a record level of new cases in the country, more than seven-times the peak from the first wave earlier this year. “

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33 minutes ago, sonyc said:

My wife has the view that this pandemic is our 'war', if you get her meaning. Only octagenarians will remember WW2 and there will be a few on here I guess? I'm quite sure though that wartime will have had  a good deal of dissent and differing opinions!

My point on Starmer was not about his ability / aptitude but more a simple reference to the 2 week circuit break and 'in it' together measure that would have bought more time. I agree, it doesn't stop the spread but numbers might remain more 'manageable'. The worry is that things get out of hand. Probably a majority on this thread (just) feel the current measures are enough and they may be correct. And I keep hoping they are, whilst watching numbers increase. It is also unsettling here in the north of course. Perhaps there may be a different view from Norfolk based posters if they lived in a different area?  Norfolk seems one of the best places in a pandemic for sure.

I hope they are correct too, but I’m pretty sure they are wrong.

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Regarding trace and track.

I don't know how things are where you guys are but I can assure you that in my experience if will not matter how much money you throw at it - it will never work properly.

People simply do not log into the places they visit, they pretend to scan the QR code or they give a false name/phone number- I'm not judging or criticising, I'm just saying how it is.

There may be some benefit but it is very limited 

 

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43 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It’s not about eliminating the disease, nobody is claiming that. If infection rates are kept under control test track and trace will work, It will have a significant impact on slowing the spread, if linked of course with the other properly targeted financial support measures.All we can hope to do is keep the lid on community spread, until a saviour of some sort comes along, but we have let things get out of control again and the writing was on the wall many months ago. 

As I said above I cant help thinking that contact tracing is becoming Increasing symbolic and that it is fanciful to think that we could ever track more than a small proportion of contacts. Sure in a place like a remote food factory its possible but not in a city environment

Lockdown will slow the spread for the duration of the measures absolutely but then what?

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Just seen it VW.

Gosh unless I have misinterpreted it is a one month full lockdown you can’t even leave your house except for shopping and medical and even then shopping is once a week.

 

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45 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I keep seeing this 500 figure today as well and 25,000 in hospital, you can have your head bitten off Sonyc rather mine for mentioning it lol.

Without any conspiracy theories I have a question that I am really struggling to get my head round. The same report also says as does that this morning that Goverment are preparing for more deaths than the first wave. I don’t get it, is it because the winter goes Oct - March and they are classing more as just a time difference, or-am I missing something ?. My head tells me from what I saw the other day treatments are really helping, so this should mean a drop, and as yet this is just not ravishing the care homes where our most frail citizens live and 2 weeks ago it had still avoided us oldies. Or is it that there weren’t really 100,000 cases a day way back but there will be now or even there was 100,000 now there will be 150,000. 
Something my head is missing but not sure what it is.

You're not "missing something", the second wave is expected to last considerably longer (oct onwards) so even though they expect the number of daily death to be fewer than the peaks of last spring, there will be many more days of them.

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And if this report is to be believed our great leader is about to go into hiding.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has hired a well-connected former political journalist to run newly televised press briefings, allowing his messages to go unfiltered by a press corps that has become increasingly critical of Downing Street’s erratic handling of Covid-19.

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5 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Just seen it VW.

Gosh unless I have misinterpreted it is a one month full lockdown you can’t even leave your house except for shopping and medical and even then shopping is once a week.

 

Their first lockdown was very stringent. This one keeps factories and some other businesses going as well as schools. Perhaps this will be something like our Tier 4?

It may be easy to predict but maybe we follow suit in 2 weeks? Cue arguments about why it wasn't done earlier, cue arguments about staff shortages just at the wrong time, cue demands for Harding to be sacked etc etc Of course there will be more people demanding an end to restrictions and mass rallies again. Great 😞

Edited by sonyc

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1 minute ago, horsefly said:

You're not "missing something", the second wave is expected to last considerably longer (oct onwards) so even though they expect the number of daily death to be fewer than the peaks of last spring, there will be many more days of them.

Thanks hf.

I do hope it’s as simple as that.

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4 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

European governments must have found the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow... 

You wanted the children looked after, all the lockdowns ( or at least this is what it seems ) are keeping schools open.

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4 minutes ago, Well b back said:

You wanted the children looked after, all the lockdowns ( or at least this is what it seems ) are keeping schools open.

Let’s hope so as they will need all the education they can get to be able to pay this colossal debt off for the rest of their lives

Edited by Teemu’s right foot

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Just now, Teemu’s right foot said:

Let’s hope so as they will need all the education that can get to be able to pay this colossal debt off for the next millennium 

But the hospitals need to be able to stay open and treat not just the Covid, but as we have agreed the cancers, hearts ect ect, they can only do that with staff. Some of Germany’s problems now I guess are they are taking in Belgium’s sick as Belgium is at breaking point. 
 “We’ve been through it once before, and it wasn’t very nice, but there was an end to it,” said Dr. Alison Pittard, the dean of the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine. “Whereas now, this is going to go on for much longer. We did not and do not have enough staff.”

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9 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Germany is to give businesses 75% of their earnings as at November 2019

The Dow has gone through the floor nearly 1000 points down.

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32 minutes ago, Well b back said:

The Dow has gone through the floor nearly 1000 points down.

Perhaps there is a connection with the White House chief of staff admitting they were not actually trying to control the virus...🤓

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Without wanting to get into a discussion about how Sweden have handled this as I’m sure it’s probably been done to death in many of the previous pages, It is quite surprising that they are only averaging 2 deaths a day with restrictions in place that haven’t gone anywhere near the lengths of other countries. Appreciate that Sweden has a population of London and density of population in countries such as ours helps the virus spread. 
 

 

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1 minute ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

Without wanting to get into a discussion about how Sweden have handled this as I’m sure it’s probably been done to death in many of the previous pages, It is quite surprising that they are only averaging 2 deaths a day with restrictions in place that haven’t gone anywhere near the lengths of other countries. Appreciate that Sweden has a population of London and density of population in countries such as ours helps the virus spread. 
 

 

Look at your own picture clearly and point out the old and vulnerable. They are not allowed to leave their homes. Then look at their real figures.

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1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Look at your own picture clearly and point out the old and vulnerable. They are not allowed to leave their homes. Then look at their real figures.

Many people here think that we should have properly supported the old and vulnerable with financial support and shielded them whilst everyone else kept the economy going. I don’t know if it’s a feasible option, the overwhelming majority of deaths have been elderly so maybe it would have protected them more, but the  government say it isn’t and we’ve spent billions of pounds paying very healthy people to sit at home. I’d say criticism of how Sweden have handled it from our country is a case of people in glass houses myself. 

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12 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

Without wanting to get into a discussion about how Sweden have handled this as I’m sure it’s probably been done to death in many of the previous pages, It is quite surprising that they are only averaging 2 deaths a day with restrictions in place that haven’t gone anywhere near the lengths of other countries. Appreciate that Sweden has a population of London and density of population in countries such as ours helps the virus spread. 
 

 

From a BMJ report which of course like everything could be wrong but a would choose to believe above Facebook or twitter.

We are extremely concerned that the Swedish model may be given some credence,” he said. “We believe it is ineffective. Sweden has had an enormous amount of deaths per head of population, 5880 deaths representing 581 deaths per million population. Compared with its neighbours it has been unsuccessful in preventing deaths—Finland, for example, has had 343 deaths, which equals 62 deaths per million population.”

Scally said the report also sought to tackle the “myths” that Sweden had not imposed any restrictions to curb the spread of covid-19.

The report highlighted that on 17 March, Sweden moved to online learning only for all children 16 and over and university students, and did not return to face-to-face teaching until the middle of June. Schools for children under 16 stayed open, but have had small class sizes, social distancing, and hygiene measures put in place.

It also noted that Sweden has had other restrictions such as a ban on travel from outside the European Union (in place until November 2020), a ban on visiting retirement homes until October 2020, and a continuing ban on gatherings of more than 50 people.

The report said that in September Denmark has seen a surge in covid-19 cases and Norway saw a sharp increase that has since levelled off. Sweden’s cases appeared relatively flat in early September, which has been taken by some as proof that Sweden’s strategy is working. But it points out that Sweden’s cases are now rising again, and both Finland’s and Norway’s cases per population remain lower than Sweden’s. Nordic countries are currently functioning under similar levels of restrictions, it added.

The report also draws attention to the economic comparisons, noting that the latest data from the European Commission shows that Sweden’s likely gross domestic product this year and next is similar to that of Denmark, Finland, and Norway.

“We see no merit in Sweden being held up as an example,” Scally said.

Based on the available data, the briefing paper says, “There is little to suggest that Sweden’s strategy is better than its Nordic neighbours (particularly Norway and Finland) and a lot to suggest that it is worse, with a much larger burden of disease over spring and summer.

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On 27/10/2020 at 21:10, Bagster said:

That is a fair point purple, but this and most pandemics are focused on the cities.

Stockholm is where it hit the hardest in Sweden.

Besides the French have all conformed, all masked up, no exceptions 130€ fine and they are being strict.

No kidding, nothing, I am shocked at how compliant they are.

When I go running I see people with masks on in the car and I live in the country.

Everyone seems petrified!!

The thing is , why?

It's clearly killing the old and very sick

Death rate overall is .23% which is equivalent to a bad flu

Death rate for the under 70's  is 0.05 which is less than seasonal flu.

We are locking down for this madness...........WHY?

I am afraid poor old Bagster may tonight be on the verge of exploding...

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“ Based on the available data, the briefing paper says, “There is little to suggest that Sweden’s strategy is better than its Nordic neighbours (particularly Norway and Finland) and a lot to suggest that it is worse, with a much larger burden of disease over spring and summer.“


But will they have a much less of the disease now over the winter months? Have they got the majority of the suffering out of the way over the summer. Until this winter and so called second wave is over we can’t judge their overall strategy. 

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