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1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Q

As for £12billion on a dysfunctional track and trace - we definitely need a good track and trace system and we could have had one at a fraction of that cost but for the governverment's incompetence and their insistence on following their ideological obsessions rather use the professional expertise already in place.

I am on here as a massive advocate of contact tracing.  I thought reliance on the pre-existing system to be the number one ir two cause of our problems.

I am a lot more sceptical now though. The numbers are too big,  its too widely spread and we are too mobile for me to think this makes a big contribution to suppression anymore.  

A guy walks across the south bank to get on a tube at Waterloo, goes to kings Cross and gets the inter city to Newcastle where he walks to the office via Gregg's.   We are not tracking all of that.  Even North Korean levels of surveillance couldn't track that. Maybe we could get a quite a few but the tide is inevitable without a vaccine.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Aggy said:

All sensible and largely agreed.

Another thing to consider, I think, is what we class as overwhelmed. Saying hospitals are 85 per cent or 97 per cent or 100 per cent full or whatever is only part of the story.  I posted links a while back so won’t repeat in full, but NW icus were no more overwhelmed in October 2020 than October 2019. Overall capacity in hospitals 2014-2016 was over the 85 per cent target every single quarter (likely much higher in winter months). 2013 - a third of hospitals at some point had to turn patients away because they were too full. 

On routine ops, the other point is that we have the longest waiting times ever already. You could be waiting 4-6 months for an operation and then still have it rearranged. We are pretty much always too overwhelmed to treat people quickly enough. You very rarely get diagnosed on Monday and have your op the following Wednesday - we’re too full to do that.

So we need to make sure we’re comparing figures to what they usually are. If we’re just as overwhelmed as every other year, then it doesn’t really justify lockdowns. If we’re going to be seriously overwhelmed, then perhaps it does. 

Your comments on the nightingales also sensible. I haven’t seen anything actually saying that will be the case, but did say myself some while ago that I’m hopeful we’ll be able (and it would be sensible) to use them less like Icus and more like “normal” wards to aid with capacity. This would also mean we’d need fewer staff to man them - you need more staff to be constantly putting out fires in icu than you do to monitor stable patients who you just don’t want to get any worse or who are already well on the road to recovery.

Hi Aggy

You are giving out to many of those little hearts you will be running out soon lol ( don’t stop though the discussions are good and I think we are all understanding more of the different views ).

Yes I didn’t know that about the Nightingales. Did you know also they are already staffed ? Although I think it is really great, this is exactly the sort of place the government are letting us down, by not explaining properly what’s happened. Just on here think how many disagreements this would have stopped, as our hospitals ( as we know them ) would be overrun or empty or not looking after cancer patients. This simple bit of information coupled with how the mainstream hospitals have adapted surely would have given people much more confidence there was a plan. Why do we have to find ou from small print hidden away.

Here is the relevant paragraph for NHS Nightingale North West

The hospital has up to 750 beds for patients. It will provide care for those who no longer need to be in a critical care environment. It will also link closely to community health and social care services, as well as the hospitals across the North West region.

And the link for the actual job description that also tells us they are already staffed if they needed.

https://www.nhsprofessionals.nhs.uk/en/Nightingale/Nightingale/NHS-Nightingale-Hospital--North-West

Like I say I was shocked as well as I thought the Nightingales were as discussed, but clearly they are also for normal procedures as well as Covid.

 

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2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Is that in the UK? Be interested to see the article.

There was always a suggestion that London was hit earlier than imagined and that the lockdown came after the peak in a lot of its parts (hence why we are seeing the worst of it in the North now despite London not exactly being renowed as a healthy environment with healthy inhabitants).

You won’t see a link for the first bit I guess !

Moving on though I had Radio 5 on on the way home, and interestingly ( and allegedly ) the government are not denying the story regards the report on the 2nd wave. 

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13 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi Aggy

You are giving out to many of those little hearts you will be running out soon lol ( don’t stop though the discussions are good and I think we are all understanding more of the different views ).

Yes I didn’t know that about the Nightingales. Did you know also they are already staffed ? Although I think it is really great, this is exactly the sort of place the government are letting us down, by not explaining properly what’s happened. Just on here think how many disagreements this would have stopped, as our hospitals ( as we know them ) would be overrun or empty or not looking after cancer patients. This simple bit of information coupled with how the mainstream hospitals have adapted surely would have given people much more confidence there was a plan. Why do we have to find ou from small print hidden away.

Here is the relevant paragraph for NHS Nightingale North West

The hospital has up to 750 beds for patients. It will provide care for those who no longer need to be in a critical care environment. It will also link closely to community health and social care services, as well as the hospitals across the North West region.

And the link for the actual job description that also tells us they are already staffed if they needed.

https://www.nhsprofessionals.nhs.uk/en/Nightingale/Nightingale/NHS-Nightingale-Hospital--North-West

Like I say I was shocked as well as I thought the Nightingales were as discussed, but clearly they are also for normal procedures as well as Covid.

 

Comment today - Sounds a bit like Norwich Community Hospital (aka the old West Norwich) 

The Nightingale hospital in Manchester will start receiving patients who do not have Covid-19 from today, the NHS has confirmed.

Nightingale hospitals in northern England were put on standby earlier this month as a result of a surge in coronavirus cases.

A spokesperson for the NHS in the north-west said: “The NHS Nightingale hospital north-west will accept patients from today to provide care for those who do not have Covid-19, but do need further support before they are able to go home, such as therapy and social care assessments.”

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18 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi Aggy

You are giving out to many of those little hearts you will be running out soon lol ( don’t stop though the discussions are good and I think we are all understanding more of the different views ).

Yes I didn’t know that about the Nightingales. Did you know also they are already staffed ? Although I think it is really great, this is exactly the sort of place the government are letting us down, by not explaining properly what’s happened. Just on here think how many disagreements this would have stopped, as our hospitals ( as we know them ) would be overrun or empty or not looking after cancer patients. This simple bit of information coupled with how the mainstream hospitals have adapted surely would have given people much more confidence there was a plan. Why do we have to find ou from small print hidden away.

Here is the relevant paragraph for NHS Nightingale North West

The hospital has up to 750 beds for patients. It will provide care for those who no longer need to be in a critical care environment. It will also link closely to community health and social care services, as well as the hospitals across the North West region.

And the link for the actual job description that also tells us they are already staffed if they needed.

https://www.nhsprofessionals.nhs.uk/en/Nightingale/Nightingale/NHS-Nightingale-Hospital--North-West

Like I say I was shocked as well as I thought the Nightingales were as discussed, but clearly they are also for normal procedures as well as Covid.

 

I usually waste my ‘little heart allowance’ with the confused face whenever I look on here and the brexit thread! 

Thanks for your link there and YF’s also - all sounds like promising steps to help avoid any overwhelming of the hospitals. 

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2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Is that in the UK? Be interested to see the article.

There was always a suggestion that London was hit earlier than imagined and that the lockdown came after the peak in a lot of its parts (hence why we are seeing the worst of it in the North now despite London not exactly being renowed as a healthy environment with healthy inhabitants).

Not sure I go with all of that - there was even a 'positive' probably false for sewage in Spain in March 2019! You you need quite an outbreak to detect it in diluted sewage so the odd case I would think is undetectable via this method - in the noise!

There is some evidence for an odd case around December (France comes to mind) but generally no real cases until it took off in Italy in Europe (when doctors put 2 + 2 =4). No doubt a few earlier cases that went unnoticed in December elsewhere. Happy to correct that if we can show a proper outbreak much earlier with hindsight.. 

You can make the same arguments for Wuhan - I think the earliest patient never visited that market place and it's likely it never started there (somewhere in SE Asia - Say September - November) but Wuhan is certainly where modern medicine first identified it.  They are still trying to identify where CV19 truly came from - a bat yes but its a bit fuzzy after that.

I don't think there is much factual evidence that London was past any peak before the lockdown took effect - but certainly the virus was less prevalent in the north and in other places at that time than London.

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11 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Comment today - Sounds a bit like Norwich Community Hospital (aka the old West Norwich) 

The Nightingale hospital in Manchester will start receiving patients who do not have Covid-19 from today, the NHS has confirmed.

Nightingale hospitals in northern England were put on standby earlier this month as a result of a surge in coronavirus cases.

A spokesperson for the NHS in the north-west said: “The NHS Nightingale hospital north-west will accept patients from today to provide care for those who do not have Covid-19, but do need further support before they are able to go home, such as therapy and social care assessments.”

That’s good and bad news ( if you get my gist )

But why on earth did the government not say the Nightingales are for this and this is why we think we can cope as well as not ignore other illnesses. We could have seen they had a plan and surely we would have looked at them and literally said ‘ at least they have a plan this time. They are digging holes for themselves that never needed to be dug. Had I not seen that on their application I would now be saying, ‘ can’t cope ‘

Bazaar

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13 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I usually waste my ‘little heart allowance’ with the confused face whenever I look on here and the brexit thread! 

Thanks for your link there and YF’s also - all sounds like promising steps to help avoid any overwhelming of the hospitals. 

Cheers Aggy -  Apologies if I get a little curt sometimes - Watched Newsnight or was it 'the papers' last night and Isabel Oakshott was on the 82 year old ploy as usual without any context and basically saying what's all the fuss about. She's exactly the sort of non-expert interviewee for some that causes all the scientific issues. 

 

10 minutes ago, Well b back said:

That’s good and bad news ( if you get my gist )

But why on earth did the government not say the Nightingales are for this and this is why we think we can cope as well as not ignore other illnesses. We could have seen they had a plan and surely we would have looked at them and literally said ‘ at least they have a plan this time. They are digging holes for themselves that never needed to be dug. Had I not seen that on their application I would now be saying, ‘ can’t cope ‘

Bazaar

I think WBB beware of politicians (or their appointees) with forked tongues - even Bagster might agree with that 🙂

My guess is that the Nightingales are not really staffed for ICU but ordinary recuperating!

 

Edited by Yellow Fever
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Just now, Yellow Fever said:

Cheers Aggy -  Apologies if I get a little curt sometimes - Watched Newsnight or was it 'the papers' last night and Isabel Oakshott was on the 82 year old ploy as usual without any context and basically saying what's all the fuss about. She's exactly the sort of non-expert interviewee for some that causes all the scientific issues. 

 

I think WBB beware of politicians (or their appointees) with forked tongues - even Bagster might agree with that 🙂

 

Yeah but he'd probably be thinking of them having literal forked tongues in the David Icke sense....😂

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280k  tests

24701 - 310         7days ago 26668       14 days ago  19724

The first reduction in positives on the 7 day count

 

Inpatients  9520    up 321 since yesterday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European. 

Italy   21994 - 221      

France 33417 - 523

Spain           18418 - 267

Germany  13161 - 81

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So France and Germany looking at new "lockdowns" although these are not full on lockdowns like back in March/April.

 

It seems really out of control in France, worst in Europe at the moment.  One comment quoted is that they've found a 9pm curfew hasn't made much difference because "people just meet at 6pm instead" - well, duh !

 

Germany seems to be looking at measures that go a bit further than our Tier 3 - bars/restaurants will be shut except for takeaways, but otherwise pretty similar.

 

From my experience here in Nottingham, the tier 2 restrictions have definitely had an impact, to a large degree I think it's just people taking it seriously now - back in September if you went into the City centre, it was almost like pre-Covid, whereas the last week or so, it's been much quieter with people masked up and keeping proper distances.  Cases had dropped dramatically, I think the decision to put Notts into tier 3 was largely because infections were spreading beyond the student population and hospital admissions going up.

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I usually waste my ‘little heart allowance’ with the confused face whenever I look on here and the brexit thread! 

Thanks for your link there and YF’s also - all sounds like promising steps to help avoid any overwhelming of the hospitals. 

 

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Hi Aggy

You are giving out to many of those little hearts you will be running out soon lol ( don’t stop though the discussions are good and I think we are all understanding more of the different views ).

Yes I didn’t know that about the Nightingales. Did you know also they are already staffed ? Although I think it is really great, this is exactly the sort of place the government are letting us down, by not explaining properly what’s happened. Just on here think how many disagreements this would have stopped, as our hospitals ( as we know them ) would be overrun or empty or not looking after cancer patients. This simple bit of information coupled with how the mainstream hospitals have adapted surely would have given people much more confidence there was a plan. Why do we have to find ou from small print hidden away.

Here is the relevant paragraph for NHS Nightingale North West

The hospital has up to 750 beds for patients. It will provide care for those who no longer need to be in a critical care environment. It will also link closely to community health and social care services, as well as the hospitals across the North West region.

And the link for the actual job description that also tells us they are already staffed if they needed.

https://www.nhsprofessionals.nhs.uk/en/Nightingale/Nightingale/NHS-Nightingale-Hospital--North-West

Like I say I was shocked as well as I thought the Nightingales were as discussed, but clearly they are also for normal procedures as well as Covid.

 

I wouldn’t put too much reliance on that WBB, NHS professional recruitment for tier two contact tracers closed a long time ago, but we are desperately short now and buying in staff at huge cost from Serco and Sitel. 

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18 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

So France and Germany looking at new "lockdowns" although these are not full on lockdowns like back in March/April.

 

It seems really out of control in France, worst in Europe at the moment.  One comment quoted is that they've found a 9pm curfew hasn't made much difference because "people just meet at 6pm instead" - well, duh !

 

Germany seems to be looking at measures that go a bit further than our Tier 3 - bars/restaurants will be shut except for takeaways, but otherwise pretty similar.

 

From my experience here in Nottingham, the tier 2 restrictions have definitely had an impact, to a large degree I think it's just people taking it seriously now - back in September if you went into the City centre, it was almost like pre-Covid, whereas the last week or so, it's been much quieter with people masked up and keeping proper distances.  Cases had dropped dramatically, I think the decision to put Notts into tier 3 was largely because infections were spreading beyond the student population and hospital admissions going up.

 

 

France is looking very very serious, we are a few weeks behind them, I do hope those that wanted proof before acting now feel sufficiently well informed.......too late of course!

Edited by Van wink
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Positives by specimen date

The fine City is fairly well down the list.

North Norfolk is the place to be.

 

67kfyMy.jpeg

 

 

Edited by ricardo

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44 minutes ago, Van wink said:

 

I wouldn’t put too much reliance on that WBB, NHS professional recruitment for tier two contact tracers closed a long time ago, but we are desperately short now and buying in staff at huge cost from Serco and Sitel. 

Hi VW

It was more the point of how well the NHS seem to be organised now and to be fair I think in this day and age all stats and comments have their figures slanted to say whatever lol.

It actually destroys a lot of the arguments that whatever the number is will die of cancer, heart because of no treatment, no screening ect ect. I think like a lot of things this was the case in March / April  but not now. There will be some missed screenings of course there will as people will not turn up not the NHS is closed. Unless things change this time the NHS is really still open for the other serious illnesses.

Personally I think the NHS has done an amazing job regards this. How many times on here did we say yes but what’s your answer to posters, but the NHS themselves had the answer.

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1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

So France and Germany looking at new "lockdowns" although these are not full on lockdowns like back in March/April.

 

It seems really out of control in France, worst in Europe at the moment.  One comment quoted is that they've found a 9pm curfew hasn't made much difference because "people just meet at 6pm instead" - well, duh !

 

Germany seems to be looking at measures that go a bit further than our Tier 3 - bars/restaurants will be shut except for takeaways, but otherwise pretty similar.

 

From my experience here in Nottingham, the tier 2 restrictions have definitely had an impact, to a large degree I think it's just people taking it seriously now - back in September if you went into the City centre, it was almost like pre-Covid, whereas the last week or so, it's been much quieter with people masked up and keeping proper distances.  Cases had dropped dramatically, I think the decision to put Notts into tier 3 was largely because infections were spreading beyond the student population and hospital admissions going up.

 

 

If you go on new daily cases then France is not the worst in Europe,  once again its Belgium that  are far worse than France, closely followed by Switzerland. The past few days Belgium have been roughly avereraged 15k new cases a day for a population of 11 million, thats well above 1k new cases per million of population, Switzerland  have averaged about 8k new cases a day  for a population of 8 million. But  no doubt its still bad in France, but out of control?..how does one judge when its out of control?

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5 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

 

With the greatest respect over the last few days the NHS has shown NOW this is no longer happening. You have taken things from April and May. Please read the information over the last few days from lots of posters, the NHS is not just open but have managed to solve the problems of making them Covid secure. They even confirm no monogram appointments will be cancelled. No death is a good death, wether from Covid or something else. Like others they had no idea how to deal with this but used the summer to learn the lessons.

I think now they have done an amazing job and proved my view and your view wrong that there were no answers, but they stepped up to the plate and gave us the answers well done NHS and I think we should all stop judging them on April and May, they are after all putting their lives on the line and sacrificing their own families for the care of others.

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38 minutes ago, Well b back said:

With the greatest respect over the last few days the NHS has shown NOW this is no longer happening. You have taken things from April and May. Please read the information over the last few days from lots of posters, the NHS is not just open but have managed to solve the problems of making them Covid secure. They even confirm no monogram appointments will be cancelled. No death is a good death, wether from Covid or something else. Like others they had no idea how to deal with this but used the summer to learn the lessons.

I think now they have done an amazing job and proved my view and your view wrong that there were no answers, but they stepped up to the plate and gave us the answers well done NHS and I think we should all stop judging them on April and May, they are after all putting their lives on the line and sacrificing their own families for the care of others.

That may well be the case but I will continue to highlight the cost of the lockdown on lives effected for things other than covid. Irrespective of if it’s happening now, it did happen and many will die because of it, including many of the missing children from these stats. 

Edited by Teemu’s right foot

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Germany’s statement. If we get a Uturn I guess it will be like this. And please don’t bite my head off I didn’t say there will be one.

A broad but limited lockdown in Germany is going to take place from 2 November, reports say. An earlier draft plan, which we reported on, had the start date as two days later. 

Under the proposals, as yet unconfirmed: 

  • Schools would remain open
  • Social contacts would be limited to two households and tourism would be halted
  • Cinemas, theatres, leisure centres would be shut
  • Bars would close and restaurants would be limited to takeaways
  • Tattoo and massage parlours would shut but hairdressers would be allowed to stay open
  • Companies badly hit by the lockdown could be reimbursed with up to 75% of their November 2019 takings

Chancellor Angela Merkel and the state premiers will reconvene on 11 November to reassess the situation, under those proposed measures.

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Positives by specimen date

The fine City is fairly well down the list.

North Norfolk is the place to be.

 

67kfyMy.jpeg

 

 

It may not be at the top of the list but I can assure you more and more pressure is building up on local T and T. I would advise people in Norfolk not to be complacent and take all the precautions they can.

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28 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi VW

It was more the point of how well the NHS seem to be organised now and to be fair I think in this day and age all stats and comments have their figures slanted to say whatever lol.

It actually destroys a lot of the arguments that whatever the number is will die of cancer, heart because of no treatment, no screening ect ect. I think like a lot of things this was the case in March / April  but not now. There will be some missed screenings of course there will as people will not turn up not the NHS is closed. Unless things change this time the NHS is really still open for the other serious illnesses.

Personally I think the NHS has done an amazing job regards this. How many times on here did we say yes but what’s your answer to posters, but the NHS themselves had the answer.

The NHS is much better prepared, organised, equipped with PPE, provided with effective clinical interventions etc in every way far better prepared, and of course it should be. I still expect to see stories starting to emerge of pressures that overwhelm staff and resources, I would certainly view with scepticism any claims from Government regarding preparedness. My view is we are going to be shocked by numbers of deaths in the coming weeks and be forced into the lockdown that should have happened weeks ago.

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5 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

That may well be the case but I will continue to highlight the cost of the lockdown on lives affected for things other than covid. Irrespective of if it’s happening now, it did happen and many will die because of it, including many of the missing children from these stats. 

Any death is a bad death.

And yes if it is a child that’s more heartbreaking, but back then if they would have caught Covid that would have been serious to, they didn’t know how to protect you then and we were all to scared.

They have learnt as have the care homes. We had 2 family members die from Covid who went into a hospital without Covid and came out with it. That is highly unlikely to happen now and I think far more of us would not be as scared off from keeping to an appointment as we were in March. 
Hindsight is a wonderful thing and the most we can ask for is lessons are learnt. I really believe the NHS should be congratulated for solving these problems and this time keeping our hospitals open for all serious disease they can’t change their past and I am sure they were heartbroken at every death wether that was from Covid or anything else.

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12 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The NHS is much better prepared, organised, equipped with PPE, provided with effective clinical interventions etc in every way far better prepared, and of course it should be. I still expect to see stories starting to emerge of pressures that overwhelm staff and resources, I would certainly view with scepticism any claims from Government regarding preparedness. My view is we are going to be shocked by numbers of deaths in the coming weeks and be forced into the lockdown that should have happened weeks ago.

Buy how long would we have had to lockdown to make sure that it actually has an effect if we did it weeks ago?

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1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

Buy how long would we have had to lockdown to make sure that it actually has an effect if we did it weeks ago?

I don’t know

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15 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It may not be at the top of the list but I can assure you more and more pressure is building up on local T and T. I would advise people in Norfolk not to be complacent and take all the precautions they can.

Spot on VW

I live in a WS postcode and unlike when we lived in Wymondham the scenario of ‘ well do you know anyone that’s had it ‘ up here we all know people not just that have had it but have got it. Once it hits an area it’s like a tsunami. You also come to realise that a lot of people that get it would never of even known had they have not found out by accident, so you no longer know if the person that just got close to you has it or is contagious just before symptoms.

I can only beg the good people of Norfolk to keep to the rules and you may just escape it’s awful sting.

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2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Buy how long would we have had to lockdown to make sure that it actually has an effect if we did it weeks ago?

A lot less 5 weeks ago than if we have to Uturn. 
 

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18 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I still expect to see stories starting to emerge of pressures that overwhelm staff and resources, I would certainly view with scepticism any claims from Government regarding preparedness. My view is we are going to be shocked by numbers of deaths in the coming weeks and be forced into the lockdown that should have happened weeks ago.

I believe this too. Death numbers simply continue to increase. Sage and Indy Sage have indicated that numbers might be 500 per day by the end of the next 4 weeks. I think in some way the sheer numbers mean that people become less shocked and this part of the forum attests to that (it feels.) I am strongly of the view that the short fire break asked for by Starmer was the right think to do. No question that we will see increasing amounts of panic in the press. One interesting analysis though will emerge with the Welsh measures. In a way it has become like a controlled experiment in the scheme of things.For sure, the administration has been hounded in terms of attempts to restrict damage to smaller businesses. Of course, their attempts to change the 'pandemic dynamic' may fall very short. It will be interesting to see in late November.

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