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3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Something we now know is not going to happen. It was perfectly correct to be ultra cautious in the beginning when we didn't have the data but when the facts change we need to change our reactions. It could well have been 30 to 40 times worse than the flu but thankfully as it turns out it may be a little over twice as bad. Its certainly bad enough to take sensible precautions against but to my mind destroying the economy doesn't seem to be one of them.

How do we know that? (certainly isn't what SAGE is saying)

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2 hours ago, horsefly said:

I'm afraid that's just plain wrong. They did not have prior herd immunity to Covid-19. That's why it is called a novel virus. You can't be immune to a virus that hasn't previously existed.

But immunity is not all or nothing.

If the body has seen something similar before the existing cells might just have enough of a fit to get ahead of the game. This cross reactivity might not be ideal and there might need to be a lot of adaption to secure a perfect fit but it could be the difference in the arms race.

Minor smallpox and cow pox were not caused by the same virus as that for major smallpox but they were close enough to give rise to immunity

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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47 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes - but 0.27% of say 60M is of course 162,000 deaths. I suppose that could be called optimistic. Only 100,000 to go.

Making a complete presumption that everyone in the population is susceptible. If you bothered to listen to the podcasts posted you’d realise that’s not the case

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4 minutes ago, horsefly said:

I think the relevant point is that we don't know yet whether a vaccine or prior infection will provide long term immunity to this novel virus.

True,  so we lockdown for 5 years until we know?

With the vaccine now on the horizon I can see the benefit of a circuit breaker but if we are going to stricter measures we absolutely must have a clearly defined goal and it must be timed so that the virus doesn't simply make up for lost time on the other side of it.

What is your plan?

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1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

But immunity is not all of nothing.

If the body has seen something similar before the existing cells might just have enough of a fit to get ahead of the game. This cross reactivity might not be ideal and there might need to be a lot of adaption to secure a perfect fit but it could be the difference in the arms race.

Minor smallpox and cow pox were not caused by the same virus as that for major smallpox but they were close enough to give rise to immunity

 

This simply doesn't fit the facts of what happened in South Korea. If you have a reference to a scientific paper that says otherwise please do provide a link. Everything I've seen says it was an extremely efficient track and trace system coupled with rigid self-isolation that proved successful. There is a reason why they designated it a novel virus.

 

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10 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

Making a complete presumption that everyone in the population is susceptible. If you bothered to listen to the podcasts posted you’d realise that’s not the case

If you had bothered reading the posts properly you will know we have been discussing herd-immunity. Herd-immunity is only possible if a certain percentage of the population is infected (susceptibilty is a different issue).

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14 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

True,  so we lockdown for 5 years until we know?

With the vaccine now on the horizon I can see the benefit of a circuit breaker but if we are going to stricter measures we absolutely must have a clearly defined goal and it must be timed so that the virus doesn't simply make up for lost time on the other side of it.

What is your plan?

There is only one strategy now that the virus is endemic. That's to ensure the NHS is capable of dealing with the number of hospitalizations caused by the virus. The debate then centres on what suppressing measures are required. Those measures will be determined by the levels of infection, so could involve local lockdowns, circuit breaks or whatever. This will be on-going until we get an effective vaccine. Sadly that's where we are at.

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2 minutes ago, horsefly said:

There is only one strategy now that the virus is endemic. That's to ensure the NHS is capable of dealing with the number of hospitalizations caused by the virus. The debate then centres on what suppressing measures are required. Those measures will be determined by the levels of infection, so could involve local lockdowns, circuit breaks or whatever. This will be on-going until we get an effective vaccine. Sadly that's where we are at.

This is the plan and pretty much everyone on here agrees with it. I suppose I was interested in when you would move to stricter measures.

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1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

This is the plan and pretty much everyone on here agrees with it. I suppose I was interested in when you would move to stricter measures.

Yes indeed! Even the government agrees. Frankly I think the measures required really do need to be dictated by the scientists and health authorities. All we can do is conduct ourselves according to strict measures of hygene (masks, handwashing etc) and hope that enables a less restrictive regime.  But also key to any strategy has to be getting an efficient track and trace system in place. It ain't going to be a barrel of laughs for quite some time.

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16 minutes ago, horsefly said:

This simply doesn't fit the facts of what happened in South Korea. If you have a reference to a scientific paper that says otherwise please do provide a link. Everything I've seen says it was an extremely efficient track and trace system coupled with rigid self-isolation that proved successful. There is a reason why they designated it a novel virus.

 

I dont have papers that make the argument in precise form but cross reactivity is well-established and indeed the very concept of vaccination derives from cross reactivity (hence vaccine /vacca/cow) 

I am not making the claim that South Korea has done well because they have 'all had it already'  but i am raising the discussion as it is where professor guptas thoughts likely are.

If you want a general discussion about the similarity between covid 19 and other coronaviruses there are plenty but this is a start:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/28/science.abd4250.full

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6 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Yes indeed! Even the government agrees. Frankly I think the measures required really do need to be dictated by the scientists and health authorities. All we can do is conduct ourselves according to strict measures of hygene (masks, handwashing etc) and hope that enables a less restrictive regime.  But also key to any strategy has to be getting an efficient track and trace system in place. It ain't going to be a barrel of laughs for quite some time.

I cannot disagree with that.   We must do what we can individually until we no longer need to do so.

I am on here from page 9 or something talking about contact tracing so I cannot really claim that it is not important but it really is no substitute from doing the simple things,  Ie washing and keeping the **** away if we can

 

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1 hour ago, horsefly said:

How do we know that? (certainly isn't what SAGE is saying)

We know it from the copious amounts of data that are now available and we can see the immediate future from those European countries that are several weeks ahead of us in the pandemic. Lots of infections but now thankfully relatively few deaths compared with March / April.

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1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

I haven't read that it is a particularly different to other coronaviruses. 

I'm not sure also why infection would give no immunity but a vaccine  would, the basic mechanism is exactly the same: antigens detected, the immune system gears up and then adapts over the course of the infection  to give a 'better fit' and then puts cells into memory when it's done.

Maybe the entry route (respiratory tract v blood stream) gives a slightly different response but I would have thought that the longer the war the better the victorious fighters are.

You have also said it yourself on your thread.   This disease might (or might not) come back in healthy people but it comes back as a pale imitation of its former self that poses little or no risk to the patient or others.

Hi BB

Of course there are many articles, some will say Herd immunity is impossible some will say it isn’t. Some will say you are immune once you catch it some will say you aren’t. It really depends, like most things in life, you move to the side that supports your own thoughts and views. I have put a link below that to me is a very fair article that gives reasons why it is believed a vaccine will be the only likely way to stop this virus, importantly based on what we know. If you decide to read the article make sure you read it all as it does finish with the unknown of reinfection. Be good to know what you think.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4

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2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi BB

Of course there are many articles, some will say Herd immunity is impossible some will say it isn’t. Some will say you are immune once you catch it some will say you aren’t. It really depends, like most things in life, you move to the side that supports your own thoughts and views. I have put a link below that to me is a very fair article that gives reasons why it is believed a vaccine will be the only likely way to stop this virus, importantly based on what we know. If you decide to read the article make sure you read it all as it does finish with the unknown of reinfection. Be good to know what you think.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4

None of this is exact science, there will always be exceptional cases which for any number of reasons will not conform to the normal rules of how we observe this virus behaving.I reality we don't know if herd immunity will stop the virus, the chances are that we will acquire some sort of immunity over time which may not necessarily be sufficient to prevent illness or spread but will increase considerably our chances of fighting it off. I suspect that Ricardo and others are thinking this way and we don't know as yet if they are right, whichever way you look at it at the moment the deaths per infection rate seems to be lowering. One thing worth remembering though, technically when we see people testing positive they are not necessarily positive cases of CV19, we are detecting a lot more virus than we were in March April which makes relative figures difficult to establish with any degree of certainty.

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On 22/10/2020 at 15:13, ricardo said:

Herd immunity is how every viral epidemic in history has come to an end. This one will be no different.

i'll say it again just for clarity.

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35 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi BB

Of course there are many articles, some will say Herd immunity is impossible some will say it isn’t. Some will say you are immune once you catch it some will say you aren’t. It really depends, like most things in life, you move to the side that supports your own thoughts and views. I have put a link below that to me is a very fair article that gives reasons why it is believed a vaccine will be the only likely way to stop this virus, importantly based on what we know. If you decide to read the article make sure you read it all as it does finish with the unknown of reinfection. Be good to know what you think.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4

If herd immunity is impossible there is no point in us bothering with non medical interventions. It will eventually get to a steady state endemic status and we'll just have to accept it.

Herd immunity in the absence vaccination would be hard to achieve. We got it (in local settings) with SARS and MERS as their R0 was so low but this is different, its like coronaviruses have learnt not to go in too hard. 

My uneducated view is that a policy of encouraging spread amongst one group whilst protecting another is daft but literally no one is doing this so its rather an academic discussion. That said infection is not necessarily a bad thing if it is only in the less vulnerable and can't get to the danger groups. There was some talk that Germany benefitted from this in the early days and continues to benefit still.

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

i'll say it again just for clarity.

Well yes all epidemics end when they cannot grow.  Question is does it get to a  steady endemic state (R=1) or is it eliminated completely everywhere.  

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1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

Well yes all epidemics end when they cannot grow.  Question is does it get to a  steady endemic state (R=1) or is it eliminated completely everywhere.  

It never entirely disappears because new potential victims are born everyday and there are always a few who have not been exposed. It usually remains endemic at a very low level with occasional outbreaks.

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1 minute ago, ricardo said:

It never entirely disappears because new potential victims are born everyday and there are always a few who have not been exposed. It usually remains endemic at a very low level with occasional outbreaks.

Pretty much the same as most, will end up being treated either once off annually or other, as Ricardo says they never go away. It will end up being down graded and a small irritation in the wealthy countries like flu. 
Not sure if other less well off counties will fair the same each year.

With a global population of 7 billion it won’t be the last epidemic.

 

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And now . . . Scotland's deputy first minister says there is a "realistic possibility" that students will not be allowed to go home for Christmas.  Some of them may be delighted of course, but it has never been more obvious that power is the crack cocaine of politics - the more they get, the more they crave.  Where will it end? 

Edited by benchwarmer
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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

i'll say it again just for clarity.

Indeed, the question is how rapidly it develops in the population to the extent that epidemic waves are suppressed. We don’t know how far along that road we have travelled but as I said earlier, it is quite possible for a level of immunity to be developed which does not prevent the spread of infection but that which does reduce the severity of disease.

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321k  tests

20890 - 102         7days ago 18804       14 days ago  13972

positives continue up and down a bit within a small range all much of a muchness

 

Inpatients  7850    no update since Saturday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European. 

Italy   21273 - 128          positives edging up

France 52010 - 116     yet another record number of positives

Spain             second day of  no report

Germany  9829 - 27

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Here’s a report from the icu wards.

A big shout out to those doctors and nurses ensuring less people die. It also seems they have now learnt to develop Covid secure areas so unlike last time more serious operations are still taking place as are many ( but not as many ) non urgent ops. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54690374

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17 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Here’s a report from the icu wards.

A big shout out to those doctors and nurses ensuring less people die. It also seems they have now learnt to develop Covid secure areas so unlike last time more serious operations are still taking place as are many ( but not as many ) non urgent ops. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54690374

Just watched it. Some good news

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22 hours ago, Bagster said:

Please watch this, if you want a future for your children or your grand children , please watch this.

I couldn't delete the 2 Nd one but watch the first one.

Thanks Bagster. An absolute must listen for everyone

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12 hours ago, Herman said:

It's all about trust. We've had 4 plus years of these people feeding us misinformation. Why should we now listen to them during this time of crisis? 

But you were prepared to believe Professor Fergusson and his data model of 250,000 deaths, even though he had previously been involved in disputed research in 2011 that led to the mass culling of farm animals. He also predicted 150,000 would die from BSE, the actuality was 200. And his modelling methodology was highly criticised as having many flawed assumptions.

We are now in this mess because Ferguson's poor modelling attempts were the 'science' that the government listened to. So now we know how wrong the whole basis was, why still blindly follow it?

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7 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

But you were prepared to believe Professor Fergusson and his data model of 250,000 deaths, even though he had previously been involved in disputed research in 2011 that led to the mass culling of farm animals. He also predicted 150,000 would die from BSE, the actuality was 200. And his modelling methodology was highly criticised as having many flawed assumptions.

We are now in this mess because Ferguson's poor modelling attempts were the 'science' that the government listened to. So now we know how wrong the whole basis was, why still blindly follow it?

This is unfair. The professor gave an assessment based on disosed criteria.  No one would have understood it as cast iron and they were quite entitled to ask him to re run the figures on alternative assumptions 

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10 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Look at it this way.  As Yellow Fever demonstrated above he supports the government policy, and this is true of most on here,  even Creative Midfielder. It is 'competence' [read balance] that is in question.  

 

 

That appears to be a non-sequitur to me - if you believe a government is totally incompetent, which at the moment I certainly do, then I would suggest that normally means that their incompetence straddles both the formulation and execution of policies.

And all of that assumes that that the aforesaid government has a basic competence to formulate policies in the first place and then attempt to execute them. The current government doesn't even have that primitive level of competence, it is simply winging it and making it up as they go-along - pretty much anything even resembling an announced policy is normally reversed within days, or at most 2-3 weeks, as it becomes obvious that the 'policy' simply won't\can't fly.

The only exception to this that I can recall is the original furlough scheme but even that had to undergo a number of revisions to plug huge gaps in it, and of course its replacement is currently on either its 3rd or 4th revision within in a month - they are making it up as they go along and left hand doesn't have a clue what right hand is doing.

So to sum up I don't support the government or its policies and its not simply because they are incompetent in implementing their policies but because they are incompetent in every aspect of governance, openly corrupt, utterly untrustworthy and place more importance on their political ideology than expert advice or even common sense in tackling a national emergency.

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