Corona Virus main thread

[sonyc 5,484]

29 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Yes, what is often not explained is that those Asian countries already had a robust track and trace syatem in place due to their earlier proximity to the SARS and MERS outbreaks a few years back. Neither peaked at anywhere near COVID but they learnt valuable lessons and as a result have managed to contain it where most other countries have not.

Absolutely. The big question then is in knowing how well this has been managed, why haven't we been moving to the same target? Why hasn't our strategy been to have an excellent T & T? Why all the nonsense we've witnessed? The flummery? The U Turns? 

I believe we are simply far too different as a society.

[Bagster 101]

I social distance and wash my hands, mask wearing has been shown to have very little use against viruses as the WHO have stated .

They also admitted that they changed their mind on mask wearing because of pressure from the health industry ie lobbying.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,734]

18 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I am all for sensible virus supressing measures, I always wear a mask and abide by social distancing, it seems to make sense to me. What I am against is the panic inducing projections that have already been shown to be very wide of the mark.

Without a doubt the leading suppressor indicator of the virus has been the amount of social distancing & masks etc in any particular society - coerced or otherwise. An effective TTI system builds on this.

Sadly in the 'West' and the USA / UK in particular these limits on your 'freedoms' (or better put your responsibility to greater society) clashes with some on the right's view to do what they damn well like. 

[Bagster 101]

Let's actually listen to the experts, not the lobbyists

[Well b back 3,182]

I understood that herd immunity was impossible with this virus as you can catch it over and over again. Zoe is now showing signs of that. The only way, again as I understand it is to gain herd immunity is with vaccines that it seems will protect you for at least a year and will need 50 % of the population to take the initial ones. Even those if launched next month as expected won’t change much until the summer.

How does anyone know what will happen to people that catch Covid ? This is a virus the likes we have never seen before. It has evolved from other viruses and tricks your body. There are different thoughts some say there will be no long term effects, the main body seem to think there will be 5 - 10% with long term effects, others predict dire consequences. I suspect personally 1 or 3 wont happen, but as it stands nobody can be certain. 
Are we saying our doctors and nurses are not telling truth ? If so I think you should find platforms to tell them directly. They are putting their lives at risk. Many have died and I would hazard a guess that not many, if any of those were over 82. 
I guess the next thing we will be getting is the same people telling us not to take the vaccine. We have already had one of you telling people ‘ it is a vaccine that has been developed in a few months ‘, simply not true. The taking of the vaccine in this country unlike some others will probably not be compulsory, but don’t be shocked if until there is a cure if it is the case that if many don’t take it there are no full football stadiums and our movement to countries that have immunised are reduced. 

The link below is not the science behind the virus this is what the virus is. It is an evolved virus, which is believed to be the first to not bother if it kills you. It has learnt to infect by hiding itself. That is what makes it different to the likes of SARS and Ebola, your body is tricked into thinking you are perfectly well and you are infectious at that time, something a virus has never been able to do before.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54648684

In conclusion all I am asking is whatever is true what are the answers ? And could you start quoting Brazil’s figures against ours ie how many of their citizens are getting cancer screening and cancer treatment at the moment.

[Well b back 3,182]

23 minutes ago, Bagster said:

Let's actually listen to the experts, not the lobbyists

A little while ago people were telling us that China handled it because they learnt lessons from the likes of SARS. I understood one of the things they learnt from SARS was to wear masks ?

[Bagster 101]

The WHO have declared that covid19 is a very mild pandemic

If you wish to give children who have a extraordinary low levels of risk to the virus a vaccine that has been rushed through by big pharma , then maybe you should have a word with yourself.

My brother had long covid, so three weeks of a nasty flu and then reoccurring for the next 8 weeks, gradually getting better, he is absolutely fine now

 

[Well b back 3,182]

57 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I am all for sensible virus supressing measures, I always wear a mask and abide by social distancing, it seems to make sense to me. What I am against is the panic inducing projections that have already been shown to be very wide of the mark.

Unfortunately very few people in the West have not not broken the rules. To the other extreme in China if you break the rules you are likely to be a social outcast or thrown in prison. I am not using science just what I see, Trump rips his mask off as does his supporters, lots seem to catch it, Biden keeps his on and there team quarantine when they come into contact in the main they don’t catch it, and certainly don’t become super spreaders.
I seem to remember you were one of the ones predicting the shut down of the world and life as we know it ending ie football seasons stopping, if I am correct I believe you also predicted football would stop again.

You with some of your initial predictions were the reason lots of people became scared of this virus.

[Well b back 3,182]

8 minutes ago, Bagster said:

The WHO have declared that covid19 is a very mild pandemic

If you wish to give children who have a extraordinary low levels of risk to the virus a vaccine that has been rushed through by big pharma , then maybe you should have a word with yourself.

My brother had long covid, so three weeks of a nasty flu and then reoccurring for the next 8 weeks, gradually getting better, he is absolutely fine now

 

Misinformation.
The 3 vaccines at the front have been in development for years. Please could you show me a link where it has ever been said children under 18 will be given the vaccine in the U.K. ? ( can’t speak for other countries ). U.K. government policy is that no vaccine will be administered to people aged under 18.

Dont mind people coming up with fors and against but please avoid completely incorrect information.

[Bagster 101]

Well vaccines generally work far better on the young than the old

Why have our government bought so many vaccines if they only wAnt to vaccinate a few?

Australia have already basically got no jab, no pay in place.

Why are health passports being considered?

I am sorry , I have very little trust in government or big pharma, this is not about the vaccine, it's about the company.

We need to ask more questions, not just accept everything we are told

 

[ricardo 7,334]

20 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Unfortunately very few people in the West have not not broken the rules. To the other extreme in China if you break the rules you are likely to be a social outcast or thrown in prison. I am not using science just what I see, Trump rips his mask off as does his supporters, lots seem to catch it, Biden keeps his on and there team quarantine when they come into contact in the main they don’t catch it, and certainly don’t become super spreaders.
I seem to remember you were one of the ones predicting the shut down of the world and life as we know it ending ie football seasons stopping, if I am correct I believe you also predicted football would stop again.

You with some of your initial predictions were the reason lots of people became scared of this virus.

Indeed, at the beginning we had no data and no idea what the infection fatality rate would be. It could have been a new Black Death with a large percentage dying and we were right to be very cautious. 

Since then we have learned that it is mainly fatal to the elderly with underlying problems. The overall fatality rate now appears to be around 0.27 percent. Unpleasant for those in the at risk age group but the vast majority should be getting on with living.

We have seen the data, we should learn from it and take the appropriate action which doesn't include destroying the rest of the economy.

[Yellow Fever 3,734]

35 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Unfortunately very few people in the West have not not broken the rules. To the other extreme in China if you break the rules you are likely to be a social outcast or thrown in prison. I am not using science just what I see, Trump rips his mask off as does his supporters, lots seem to catch it, Biden keeps his on and there team quarantine when they come into contact in the main they don’t catch it, and certainly don’t become super spreaders.
I seem to remember you were one of the ones predicting the shut down of the world and life as we know it ending ie football seasons stopping, if I am correct I believe you also predicted football would stop again.

You with some of your initial predictions were the reason lots of people became scared of this virus.

As some may know WBB I have quite a lot of first hand experience in China, Japan and yes USA. It's never quite that cut and dried but the gist of your argument is true (China being huge and diverse). The Chinese have to do what they are told (they probably would anyway), the Japanese will do what is collectively 'right' most obviously seen in their politeness to each other whereas the US is a mix. I note the Swedes are pretty compliant too!  In both Japan and China, Korea etc. generally mask wearing is seen as the natural thing to do if you have cold / snivel so as to try to not pass it on.  I suspect that we may also get with that habit now in the west. Social outcast not too with an obvious cold!

As to scared of the virus - personally I'm not but that's just me (in my earliest posts I even wondered if I could catch it early while the NHS wasn't too busy - my wife worries far more than me) - it is what it is yet I do see many people who are terrified of it to the point of not being able to function - I guess many of these are the ones who don't go to the doctors / hospitals for screening or whatever for fear of the virus. Unable to balance risks.

All I really ask is that any of these govt. measures are effective (mask wearing is easy and a non-issue) and not half measures. Far better to be decisive than as we always seem to doing not strong enough and the worst of all worlds follows.

I will leave the conspiracy theorists to themselves and the odd often misunderstood to be fair youtube video at margins of the scientific debate and consensus. 

 

Edited October 26, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Well b back 3,182]

4 minutes ago, Bagster said:

Well vaccines generally work far better on the young than the old

Why have our government bought so many vaccines if they only wAnt to vaccinate a few?

Australia have already basically got no jab, no pay in place.

Why are health passports being considered?

I am sorry , I have very little trust in government or big pharma, this is not about the vaccine, it's about the company.

We need to ask more questions, not just accept everything we are told

 

Please stop giving misinformation. U.K. government policy at present is there will be no need to give vaccines to the under 18’s. The Oxford vaccine has been developed over a number of years and yes you are correct there are only 2 vaccines ever produced that protect everyone.

I would ask again please show me the link where the Goverment has changed its policy to immunise under 18’s I am fascinated that after 3 weeks they have changed their policy already.

Do you realise that for Oxford and Pfizer you require 2 doses not one. Therefore if we have bought for instance 40 million doses only 20 million people people can be immunised. 
Like I say there are plenty of reasons for and against as to why you should or should not have the vaccine, but putting information into a public place that is completely incorrect isn’t one of them, in my opinion.

The link please ?

[horsefly 4,273]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

You are starting at a different point to professor gupta.   Your assumption is that is that R0 >2 and it is a completely naive population. In this case your analysis is sound.  

Professor Gupta though sees in the figures evidence of prior immunity (presumably as a result of exposure to a different  coronavirus strain but with a similar antigen ).   This prior exposure means that we are already well on the way to herd immunity and prior exposure is already putting the breaks on progession.

 

After seeing professor Gupta's very poor performance on Question Time I was left totally unconvinced of her claims as indeed are most scientists working in the field. Back in May she claimed:

"...the coronavirus pandemic is "on its way out" of Britain after infecting as much as half the population."

"Professor Sunetra Gupta says there would be a "strong possibility" that pubs, nightclubs and restaurants in Britain could reopen without serious risk from COVID-19. ...Asked for her updated ratio, Prof Gupta said the epidemic had "largely come and is on its way out in this country" and that the rate would be "definitely less than one in 1000 and probably closer to one in 10,000", or between 0.1 percent and 0.01 percent."

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1285638/bbc-question-time-fiona-bruce-latest-uk-lockdown-coronavirus-camilla-tominey

I fail to see how her analysis has in any way been borne out by the subsequesnt progress of the virus. I suggest she visits the covid wards up North if she thinks the epidemic has "largely come and gone".

 

[Yellow Fever 3,734]

3 minutes ago, horsefly said:

After seeing professor Gupta's very poor performance on Question Time I was left totally unconvinced of her claims as indeed are most scientists working in the field. Back in May she claimed:

"...the coronavirus pandemic is "on its way out" of Britain after infecting as much as half the population."

"Professor Sunetra Gupta says there would be a "strong possibility" that pubs, nightclubs and restaurants in Britain could reopen without serious risk from COVID-19. ...Asked for her updated ratio, Prof Gupta said the epidemic had "largely come and is on its way out in this country" and that the rate would be "definitely less than one in 1000 and probably closer to one in 10,000", or between 0.1 percent and 0.01 percent."

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1285638/bbc-question-time-fiona-bruce-latest-uk-lockdown-coronavirus-camilla-tominey

I fail to see how her analysis has in any way been borne out by the subsequesnt progress of the virus. I suggest she visits the covid wards up North if she thinks the epidemic has "largely come and gone".

 

The problem is some scientists, starting out with the best intentions, get turned into mini-celebrities by the media and when their pet theories fail (ot at the very least have severe questions asked about them - i.e her previous 'herd immunity' levels being inconsistent with the virus resurgence) they struggle to be able to admit the issues and retreat quite honourably back to a science based safe harbour. Instead you seem to get then digging ever deeper holes egged on by a gullible public and voracious media.

[horsefly 4,273]

29 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Indeed, at the beginning we had no data and no idea what the infection fatality rate would be. It could have been a new Black Death with a large percentage dying and we were right to be very cautious. 

Since then we have learned that it is mainly fatal to the elderly with underlying problems. The overall fatality rate now appears to be around 0.27 percent. Unpleasant for those in the at risk age group but the vast majority should be getting on with living.

We have seen the data, we should learn from it and take the appropriate action which doesn't include destroying the rest of the economy.

There are many figures being posted regarding the percentage fatality rate and I'm sure we all find ourselves drawn to the one that fits our argument best. But there really is only one figure that is fundamentally important at the moment and that's how many people require hospitalization as a result of Covid infection. It is this figure which determines whether the NHS can cope or will crash. And it is this figure that determines what supressing measures are required. 

[Yellow Fever 3,734]

3 minutes ago, horsefly said:

There are many figures being posted regarding the percentage fatality rate and I'm sure we all find ourselves drawn to the one that fits our argument best. But there really is only one figure that is fundamentally important at the moment and that's how many people require hospitalization as a result of Covid infection. It is this figure which determines whether the NHS can cope or will crash. And it is this figure that determines what supressing measures are required. 

Yes - but 0.27% of say 60M is of course 162,000 deaths. I suppose that could be called optimistic. Only 100,000 to go.

[horsefly 4,273]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes - but 0.27% of say 60M is of course 162,000 deaths. I suppose that could be called optimistic. Only 100,000 to go.

Sadly people just don't get it do they! Even if we were to put aside the moral issues about allowing such a calamatous death toll (which obviously we shouldn't) the fundamental point is that the NHS simply collapses under that level of hospitalization. And that collapse entails a massive increase in deaths from all the other causes that they will be unable to treat.

I suppose we could adopt the 14th century practice of confining victims alone in their homes until they suffocate. Perhaps there will be a few volunteers here who will walk the streets with a bell yelling "Bring out your dead".

 

[Yellow Fever 3,734]

Just now, horsefly said:

Sadly people just don't get it do they! Even if we were to put aside the moral issues about allowing such a calamatous death toll (which obviously we shouldn't) the fundamental point is that the NHS simply collapses under that level of hospitalization. And that collapse entails a massive increase in deaths from all the other causes that they will be unable to treat.

I suppose we could adopt the 14th century practice of confining victims alone in their homes until they suffocate. Perhaps there will be a few volunteers here who will walk the streets with a bell yelling "Bring out your dead".

 

I'm playing very loose and fast with the numbers here so don't take literally - but the point about "NHS simply collapses under that level of hospitalization. And that collapse entails a massive increase in deaths from all the other causes that they will be unable to treat" - is simply the point that I was making yesterday or day before

Any way jobs to do - 

 

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

How many have died quietly, could not get their long planned operation or cancer treatment, during the last six month? How many have died before they could access their pensions?, did all their life's contribution, very likely invested by the Government as of normal, and now going back into the coffers of these snollygosters, how much did these 'lost contributions amount to?

A good article on the utility of fear that is being used in ample proportions. And some excellent comments to boot.

 

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2020/10/covid-19-and-the-political-utility-of-fear/comment-page-4/#comment-961939

 

[horsefly 4,273]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm playing very loose and fast with the numbers here so don't take literally - but the point about "NHS simply collapses under that level of hospitalization. And that collapse entails a massive increase in deaths from all the other causes that they will be unable to treat" - is simply the point that I was making yesterday or day before

Any way jobs to do - 

 

oops! sorry to repeat you, but then again I think it's a point that can't be repeated enough. It is THE driver of government policy.

[sonyc 5,484]

Just now, horsefly said:

oops! sorry to repeat you, but then again I think it's a point that can't be repeated enough. It is THE driver of government policy.

It is the driver of policy because of decades of under investment. It's a defensive strategy not one that can ever 'get ahead of the curve' because by its nature it is one that is reactive.

[Barbe bleu 809]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

Yes, what is often not explained is that those Asian countries already had a robust track and trace syatem in place due to their earlier proximity to the SARS and MERS outbreaks a few years back. Neither peaked at anywhere near COVID but they learnt valuable lessons and as a result have managed to contain it where most other countries have not.

The South Korean contact tracing system was certainly what we would call 'extreme'.

Professor Gupta might claim though that we are in danger of learning the wrong lessons of these outbreaks if we look just at the response and ignore the possibility that S. Korean's are getting  through this well  because they have lived through it all before and now have immunity

 

[horsefly 4,273]

1 minute ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

How many have died quietly, could not get their long planned operation or cancer treatment, during the last six month? How many have died before they could access their pensions?, did all their life's contribution, very likely invested by the Government as of normal, and now going back into the coffers of these snollygosters, how much did these 'lost contributions amount to?

A good article on the utility of fear that is being used in ample proportions. And some excellent comments to boot.

 

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2020/10/covid-19-and-the-political-utility-of-fear/comment-page-4/#comment-961939

 

Absolutely! But that's precisely why the NHS has to be protected from being overwhelmed. If it does collapse under the weight of Covid hospitalization then the numbers of people dying of the other conditions you mention will sky-rocket. Virus suppressing measures are required precisely to enable other normal health interventions to continue.

[Yellow Fever 3,734]

1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

The South Korean contact tracing system was certainly what we would call 'extreme'.

Professor Gupta might claim though that we are in danger of learning the wrong lessons of these outbreaks if we look just at the response and ignore the possibility that S. Korean's are getting  through this well  because they have lived through it all before and now have immunity

 

BB - Interesting theory but the problem with all these 'immunity' arguments is that they don't stack up very well against observed reality.

For Korea - how does the previous immunity stack up with the super-spreeder event at that church - infected 1000 people! Now if there was significant 'herd immunity' that would seem very unlikely mostly in one super church. I might get better odds winning the lottery twice.

No - It's a fallacy.  Busted flush. Move on.

[horsefly 4,273]

2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

The South Korean contact tracing system was certainly what we would call 'extreme'.

Professor Gupta might claim though that we are in danger of learning the wrong lessons of these outbreaks if we look just at the response and ignore the possibility that S. Korean's are getting  through this well  because they have lived through it all before and now have immunity

 

I'm afraid that's just plain wrong. They did not have prior herd immunity to Covid-19. That's why it is called a novel virus. You can't be immune to a virus that hasn't previously existed.

[Barbe bleu 809]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

I understood that herd immunity was impossible with this virus as you can catch it over and over again. Zoe is now showing signs of that. The only way, again as I understand it is to gain herd immunity is with vaccines that it seems will protect you for at least a year and will need 50 % of the population to take the initial ones. Even those if launched next month as expected won’t change much until the summer.

How does anyone know what will happen to people that catch Covid ? This is a virus the likes we have never seen before. It has evolved from other viruses and tricks your body. 

I haven't read that it is a particularly different to other coronaviruses. 

I'm not sure also why infection would give no immunity but a vaccine  would, the basic mechanism is exactly the same: antigens detected, the immune system gears up and then adapts over the course of the infection  to give a 'better fit' and then puts cells into memory when it's done.

Maybe the entry route (respiratory tract v blood stream) gives a slightly different response but I would have thought that the longer the war the better the victorious fighters are.

You have also said it yourself on your thread.   This disease might (or might not) come back in healthy people but it comes back as a pale imitation of its former self that poses little or no risk to the patient or others.

[horsefly 4,273]

8 minutes ago, sonyc said:

It is the driver of policy because of decades of under investment. It's a defensive strategy not one that can ever 'get ahead of the curve' because by its nature it is one that is reactive.

Spot on Sonyc! That's what makes the failure to implement any of the recommendations of Exercise Cygnus such a scandal. The virus is now endemic in the UK and we can now only react to it with suppressing measures. A vaccine now remains our only genuine hope of a return to "normality". ON that note I begin participating in a vaccine trial this Friday, so will update on that if anything interesting arises.

[ricardo 7,334]

29 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes - but 0.27% of say 60M is of course 162,000 deaths. I suppose that could be called optimistic. Only 100,000 to go.

Something we now know is not going to happen. It was perfectly correct to be ultra cautious in the beginning when we didn't have the data but when the facts change we need to change our reactions. It could well have been 30 to 40 times worse than the flu but thankfully as it turns out it may be a little over twice as bad. Its certainly bad enough to take sensible precautions against but to my mind destroying the economy doesn't seem to be one of them.

[horsefly 4,273]

1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

I haven't read that it is a particularly different to other coronaviruses. 

I'm not sure also why infection would give no immunity but a vaccine  would, the basic mechanism is exactly the same: antigens detected, the immune system gears up and then adapts over the course of the infection  to give a 'better fit' and then puts cells into memory when it's done.

Maybe the entry route (respiratory tract v blood stream) gives a slightly different response but I would have thought that the longer the war the better the victorious fighters are.

You have also said it yourself on your thread.   This disease might (or might not) come back in healthy people but it comes back as a pale imitation of its former self that poses little or no risk to the patient or others.

I think the relevant point is that we don't know yet whether a vaccine or prior infection will provide long term immunity to this novel virus.