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19 minutes ago, sonyc said:

 

IMG_20201025_220213.jpg

Guys I'm going to say goodnight.

The above reminds me astrology is still quite popular. Some swear by it and you can always find a match in it to your own circumstances. We find the answers we want in the patterns of the stars in the sky.

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Maybe these three are just plain old conspiracy theorists

I could go with many more top epidemiologists from Oxford, Yale Stanford ect but you probably wouldn't bother listening.

You just follow your great leader, for now you are firmly on his boat.

All hail

Alexander Boris de pfeffel Johnson

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Bagster said:

Nobel prize winning Professor Michael levit from Stanford

Is he conspiracy theorist?

If it doesn’t fit the narrative it’s not a relevant opinion. I’ve posted a podcast that’s over an hour long by an expert as an alternative opinion and not a single comment on it. As I’ve said some people have become so engulfed in this virus and the fear of it that they can’t see anything other. Let’s just burn the house down to catch the rat instead....

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It's all about trust. We've had 4 plus years of these people feeding us misinformation. Why should we now listen to them during this time of crisis? 

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7 minutes ago, Herman said:

It's all about trust. We've had 4 plus years of these people feeding us misinformation. Why should we now listen to them during this time of crisis? 

Four plus years of expert epidemiologists opinions on a virus!!?? 

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12 minutes ago, Herman said:

It's all about trust. We've had 4 plus years of these people feeding us misinformation. Why should we now listen to them during this time of crisis? 

I’ll post it again to see if anyone can bring themselves to listen to an alternative expert opinion 

 

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What I am saying is don't trust people like Delingpole. He does the same with climate science and did the same with brexit. He deliberately muddies the water. 

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4 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

Four plus years of expert epidemiologists opinions on a virus!!?? 

They are VASTLY outnumbered by experts who disagree with them. And interestingly those countries, who have followed their advice and rapidly applied the appropriate supressing methods, have all gained much greater control over the virus (see China, see South Korea, see Japan, see Germany etc. etc.). They have far fewer deaths than the UK and far less socio-economic impact. The problem is not with the advice of the overwhelming majority of experts, it's with the shambolic decision making of political buffoons (see USA, see UK, see Brazil etc. etc.).

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38 minutes ago, Herman said:

What I am saying is don't trust people like Delingpole. He does the same with climate science and did the same with brexit. He deliberately muddies the water. 

Herman, this isn't a remain v brexit, it's not left versus right

This is about a corporate takeover of democracy

2008 financial crisis was at the time the biggest fraud in history. The people were left with the bill and no one went to jail

Dupont poisoned the entire world with Teflon, they even put it in cigarettes and gave it to their employees, killing them. No one went to jail

Volkswagen cheated their emissions and again tested them on employees and again just fines, no one went to jail.

The Iraq war was decided by 12 men in a locked room , who were their advisors? They certainly didn't care about a million man march.

Watch this, it's a few minutes of your time

 

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

It's all about trust. We've had 4 plus years of these people feeding us misinformation. Why should we now listen to them during this time of crisis? 

Experts ay, who needs 'em 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Oh deary me Herman, where have I heard that before?

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1 hour ago, horsefly said:

They are VASTLY outnumbered by experts who disagree with them. And interestingly those countries, who have followed their advice and rapidly applied the appropriate supressing methods, have all gained much greater control over the virus (see China, see South Korea, see Japan, see Germany etc. etc.). They have far fewer deaths than the UK and far less socio-economic impact. The problem is not with the advice of the overwhelming majority of experts, it's with the shambolic decision making of political buffoons (see USA, see UK, see Brazil etc. etc.).

If only we had a government like China, only 3 deaths per million people.

Or better still, North Korea, nobody dies at all. 🤣🤣🤣

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3 hours ago, Bagster said:

Nobel prize winning Professor Michael levit from Stanford

Is he conspiracy theorist?

 

There are lots of rebuttals of his views - which boil down to basically saying it is already a 'seasonal' virus already and would of gone away completely of its own accord last summer (lockdown has almost zero effect)

However - If you must go down that particular rabbit hole - 

I don't vouch for this but if you insist - has lots of links.

https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2020/09/21/the-lethal-nonsense-of-michael-levitt/

His (shifting) predictions are all rather embarrassing.

Also added quite a good article in Nature which gives a balanced view on seasonality issues (ergo it will very likely become seasonal but not yet - only when we have very largely all got some immune responses - vaccine or by direct exposure. Until then wave after wave.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18150-z

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12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Experts ay, who needs 'em 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Oh deary me Herman, where have I heard that before?

From yourself? 

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Ok let's try another angle, this is doctor talking at the European parliament.

It's not about covid but it shows the power of lobbying and the priorities of big pharma

Big pharma and big food killing for profit

 

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14 hours ago, Well b back said:

I agree absolutely and she has used it to get people behind her agenda, however ( at least up until now ) the people of Scotland have listened to her, unlike the people of England with Boris.

Would it work if she took over from Boris and ran the U.K. - probably not but in her own country she seems to be listened to. The discussions on who got it right will only be answered with history.

I'm not sure that is all correct Wbb.

I suspect that the Jocks haven't listened to Sturgeon any more than the English have listened to Johnson - hence the continuing problems up there, as here.

The YouGov website gives Johnson an approval rating of 40% and Sturgeon an approval rating of 37%, although a different chart on the same website gives Johnon 35% - whatever, there isn't much in it at all.

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WHY HERD IMMUNITY IS OUT OF THE QUESTION

 

1. Uk poulation is 67,000,000 (http://www.ukpopulation.org/#:~:text=United Kingdom (U.K.) has population of over 66,the 7thmost densely populated country in the Europe.)

2. Herd immunity will require at least 50% spread among the population (Generally, herd immunity against infectious diseases is achieved at between 50 to 70 percent, according to the authors, but this may not be possible for the coronavirus. - (https://www.newsweek.com/herd-immunity-threshold-covid-19-could-just-43-percent-1512978)

3. Assuming the lowest estimate of 50% would require at least 33,500,000 people to contract the virus.

4. The mortality rate of  Covid-19 is estimated to be between 1%-2% (https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/05/05/covid-19-fact-check-coronavirus-mortality-rate-misleading/3019503001/)

5. Assuming the lowest estimate of 1% that means  335,000 deaths (SAGE scientists have predicted a much higher figure around 500,000) 

 

That figure by itself ought to be enough to close the argument. But of course it's implications go way beyond that. We have already seen that Covid-19 has resulted in the cancellation of millions of hospital proceedures as the NHS battles to deal with the virus. No doubt that has lead to many avoidable fatalities too. To date the Government's figures of total number of Covid infections is 873,800. Even if we doubled or trebled that figure, to account for non-reported cases, we get nowhere near the figure of 33,500,000 required for herd immunity. You would have to be brain-dead not to see that this would result in a collapse of the NHS. Herd immunity is simply a non-starter as even Johnson's government recognises.

 

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2 hours ago, Herman said:

It's all about trust. We've had 4 plus years of these people feeding us misinformation. Why should we now listen to them during this time of crisis? 

Look at it this way.  As Yellow Fever demonstrated above he supports the government policy, and this is true of most on here,  even Creative Midfielder. It is 'competence' [read balance] that is in question.

The videos are of people who do not support the policy.   

 

 

Edited by Barbe bleu
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32 minutes ago, Herman said:

From yourself? 

Indeed and it appears that you have finally joined me in discovering that on all contentious issues we have qualified experts who come to different conclusions. Please don't make me go through all the other issues where experts have disagreed, peak oil, the food crisis etc etc. We look back in history and those who got it wrong either go strangely quiet or  adjust their views. (see prof Paul Erlich for an example) t

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1 hour ago, horsefly said:

The problem is not with the advice of the overwhelming majority of experts, it's with the shambolic decision making of political buffoons (see USA, see UK, see Brazil etc. etc.).

The debate on here is now just the brexit thread continued.  This is a shame as it started so well

We all know why the three countries are given as examples but if we want to fully understand the virus we need to look not just at these (though it is important that we do) but also at the likes of Peru  Bolivia, Belgium, Spain, Chile etc on one side do pretty much any E / SE Asian nation on the other.

Perhaps it is political action (or the lack of it) that drives the figures but let's be a bit more scientific than cherry picking  the nations we want to look bad and ignoring the others with comparable data.  

The argument against Trump, Johnson and Bolsonaro will be improved if it is presented in a less partisan manner.

 

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24 minutes ago, horsefly said:

To date the Government's figures of total number of Covid infections is 873,800. Even if we doubled or trebled that figure, to account for non-reported cases, we get nowhere near the figure of 33,500,000 required for herd immunity. You would have to be brain-dead not to see that this would result in a collapse of the NHS. Herd immunity is simply a non-starter as even Johnson's government recognises.

 

You are starting at a different point to professor gupta.   Your assumption is that is that R0 >2 and it is a completely naive population. In this case your analysis is sound.  

Professor Gupta though sees in the figures evidence of prior immunity (presumably as a result of exposure to a different  coronavirus strain but with a similar antigen ).   This prior exposure means that we are already well on the way to herd immunity and prior exposure is already putting the breaks on progession.

 

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7 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

 

We all know why the three countries are given as examples but if we want to fully understand the virus we need to look not just at these (though it is important that we do) but also at the likes of Peru  Bolivia, Belgium, Spain, Chile etc on one side do pretty much any E / SE Asian nation on the other.

 

 

Yes, what is often not explained is that those Asian countries already had a robust track and trace syatem in place due to their earlier proximity to the SARS and MERS outbreaks a few years back. Neither peaked at anywhere near COVID but they learnt valuable lessons and as a result have managed to contain it where most other countries have not.

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13 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Indeed and it appears that you have finally joined me in discovering that on all contentious issues we have qualified experts who come to different conclusions. Please don't make me go through all the other issues where experts have disagreed, peak oil, the food crisis etc etc. We look back in history and those who got it wrong either go strangely quiet or  adjust their views. (see prof Paul Erlich for an example) t

One bloke telling you what you want to hear doesn't necessarily make them an expert. See Minford and Lawson for examples. 

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W.H.O

Death percentage 0.275 overall

If you are under 70 it's 0.05

Average lifespan in UK is 81

Average death from covid is 82

The hit to the economy is now four times greater than the financial crisis

The hit to other NHS services is enormous

It effects the poor the most.

The consequences of starvation in the third world will be enormous, up to 130 million dead.

The cure is far worse than the disease

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1 minute ago, Herman said:

One bloke telling you what you want to hear doesn't necessarily make them an expert. See Minford and Lawson for examples. 

If you avoid Covid you will have the pleasure of looking back in years to come and finding out who got it right.😉

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Add to that

Sweden now has No social distancing, no masks

They are living a normal life

Sweden got it right 

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7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Yes, what is often not explained is that those Asian countries already had a robust track and trace syatem in place due to their earlier proximity to the SARS and MERS outbreaks a few years back. Neither peaked at anywhere near COVID but they learnt valuable lessons and as a result have managed to contain it where most other countries have not.

That's precisely the point. All this was noted and predicted by the UK's "Exercise Cygnus" back in 2016, and all of it was ignored. We could have been prepared but we weren't, that's why we're forced into the crap measures we have to take now. The fundamental reality driving all this is that the NHS will collapse without virus supressing measures.

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2 minutes ago, horsefly said:

That's precisely the point. All this was noted and predicted by the UK's "Exercise Cygnus" back in 2016, and all of it was ignored. We could have been prepared but we weren't, that's why we're forced into the crap measures we have to take now. The fundamental reality driving all this is that the NHS will collapse without virus supressing measures.

I am all for sensible virus supressing measures, I always wear a mask and abide by social distancing, it seems to make sense to me. What I am against is the panic inducing projections that have already been shown to be very wide of the mark.

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