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11 hours ago, Aggy said:

https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/local/northyorkshire/18808438.harrogate-hospital-ready-needed/
 

NHS Nightingale in Harrogate ready and able to take patients if needed (although not currently needed). Positive in many respects. Hopefully won’t be needed but gives us options if required.

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12982764/fewer-patients-icu-manchester-now-than-last-year/

https://inews.co.uk/news/analysis/manchester-intensive-care-beds-tier-3-restrictions-analysis-730414

Something I had completely missed. As mentioned by others who knows what stats to believe nowadays, but NHS E’s own stats suggest this time last year Manchester’s critical beds were 87 per cent full and Salford’s were 96 per cent full. Tameside 100 per cent full this time last year according to these links. 

yup, we were in "winter measures" for years according to my mate over there who was working in these hospitals. Funny how we turned a blind eye to it all pre covid.

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11 hours ago, Aggy said:

https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/local/northyorkshire/18808438.harrogate-hospital-ready-needed/
 

NHS Nightingale in Harrogate ready and able to take patients if needed (although not currently needed). Positive in many respects. Hopefully won’t be needed but gives us options if required.

Unfortunately, The Northern Echo is wrong on both counts.

The Harrogate Nightingale is very much needed - Covid capacity in Leeds is already swamped so I would be amazed if that wasn't the case in Bradford as well although I have no info on that.

The Harrogate Nightingale isn't ready - I believe it was told to get ready two or three weeks ago but the assumption\belief in Leeds is that they don't have the necessary staff available - why would they when our two main teaching hospitals are totally understaffed already, I can't imagine where they were expecting to magic them up from for the Nightingale.

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3 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Unfortunately, The Northern Echo is wrong on both counts.

The Harrogate Nightingale is very much needed - Covid capacity in Leeds is already swamped so I would be amazed if that wasn't the case in Bradford as well although I have no info on that.

The Harrogate Nightingale isn't ready - I believe it was told to get ready two or three weeks ago but the assumption\belief in Leeds is that they don't have the necessary staff available - why would they when our two main teaching hospitals are totally understaffed already, I can't imagine where they were expecting to magic them up from for the Nightingale.

You'd be correct Creative.

https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18808623.surge-seriously-unwell-covid-19-patients-bradford-sees-suspension-select-surgeries/

But Look North had a feature this week that the Harrogate Nightingale could mobilise in 5 days if required and planning has been in place for a while. Yet it was the head saying it and I suppose she would be saying that.

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3 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Unfortunately, The Northern Echo is wrong on both counts.

The Harrogate Nightingale is very much needed - Covid capacity in Leeds is already swamped so I would be amazed if that wasn't the case in Bradford as well although I have no info on that.

The Harrogate Nightingale isn't ready - I believe it was told to get ready two or three weeks ago but the assumption\belief in Leeds is that they don't have the necessary staff available - why would they when our two main teaching hospitals are totally understaffed already, I can't imagine where they were expecting to magic them up from for the Nightingale.

they are still busy trying to staff the nightingales. One of my friends who was set to work there in April has got her job back there. No idea where they are with getting it resolved though. Harrogate area itself is doing reasonably well with containing things relative to the likes of Leeds, York and Bradford next door to us so I'd imagine it will be spillover from these areas that is first into the Nightingales. I wonder if they will redistribute more staff from other, less effected areas of the country to man these

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1 minute ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Unfortunately, The Northern Echo is wrong on both counts.

The Harrogate Nightingale is very much needed - Covid capacity in Leeds is already swamped so I would be amazed if that wasn't the case in Bradford as well although I have no info on that.

The Harrogate Nightingale isn't ready - I believe it was told to get ready two or three weeks ago but the assumption\belief in Leeds is that they don't have the necessary staff available - why would they when our two main teaching hospitals are totally understaffed already, I can't imagine where they were expecting to magic them up from for the Nightingale.

That I must say was my understanding as well re the Nightingales that the issues were staffing ie regular NHS self isolating, and stress and the lack of people able or willing to work in them. I am sure that is what the NHS person keeps repeating on Radio5. It is also reported ( by the NHS not the government ) that Liverpool are about to run out of ICU beds.

As always I will stand to be corrected.

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7 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Unfortunately, The Northern Echo is wrong on both counts.

The Harrogate Nightingale is very much needed - Covid capacity in Leeds is already swamped so I would be amazed if that wasn't the case in Bradford as well although I have no info on that.

The Harrogate Nightingale isn't ready - I believe it was told to get ready two or three weeks ago but the assumption\belief in Leeds is that they don't have the necessary staff available - why would they when our two main teaching hospitals are totally understaffed already, I can't imagine where they were expecting to magic them up from for the Nightingale.

 

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

You'd be correct Creative.

https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18808623.surge-seriously-unwell-covid-19-patients-bradford-sees-suspension-select-surgeries/

But Look North had a feature this week that the Harrogate Nightingale could mobilise in 5 days if required and planning has been in place for a while. Yet it was the head saying it and I suppose she would be saying that.

 

1 minute ago, Tetteys Jig said:

they are still busy trying to staff the nightingales. One of my friends who was set to work there in April has got her job back there. No idea where they are with getting it resolved though. Harrogate area itself is doing reasonably well with containing things relative to the likes of Leeds, York and Bradford next door to us so I'd imagine it will be spillover from these areas that is first into the Nightingales. I wonder if they will redistribute more staff from other, less effected areas of the country to man these

 

Guys - these are all the reasons why we desperately need to keep the lid on Covid. The NHS is obviously already in places on the brink and having to make uncomfortable decisions.

It really doesn't matter anymore why the NHS was understaffed before or the fibs told about the Nightingales  - it's what we do now that matters.

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25 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Unfortunately, The Northern Echo is wrong on both counts.

The Harrogate Nightingale is very much needed - Covid capacity in Leeds is already swamped so I would be amazed if that wasn't the case in Bradford as well although I have no info on that.

The Harrogate Nightingale isn't ready - I believe it was told to get ready two or three weeks ago but the assumption\belief in Leeds is that they don't have the necessary staff available - why would they when our two main teaching hospitals are totally understaffed already, I can't imagine where they were expecting to magic them up from for the Nightingale.

Well it was me saying it was not needed yet rather than the article - on the basis there’s nobody in it.

The medical director yesterday said they’re ready to start accepting people. Not sure why she would say that yesterday if they weren’t.
 

Whether they can staff full capacity, I don’t know. But if the medical director says they’re ready to start accepting patients, I can’t believe for one second they wouldn’t be able to accept any.

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1 minute ago, Tetteys Jig said:

they are still busy trying to staff the nightingales. One of my friends who was set to work there in April has got her job back there. No idea where they are with getting it resolved though. Harrogate area itself is doing reasonably well with containing things relative to the likes of Leeds, York and Bradford next door to us so I'd imagine it will be spillover from these areas that is first into the Nightingales. I wonder if they will redistribute more staff from other, less effected areas of the country to man these

I think all that is right but the issue, I suspect, with trying to redistribute staff from other areas of the NHS is firstly that the NHS nationally is massively short of both nurses and doctors so even in areas with lower infection rates hospitals are likely to be understaffed already.

The other significant problem is that certainly for nurses, if not doctors, there are some very specific skills\training required for nursing Covid patients (use of ventilators being one of several) and these skills are not that common amongst nurses generally unless they have worked in A&E or Respiratory and even then not always - I guess quite a lot must have had training in recent months but what I can say for sure is that in our area we are having real problems on Covid wards because not omly are there insufficient numbers available to staff Covid wards properly (i.e. to run safely) but even within those numbers they are including nurses in the rota who don't have the skills required and so are effectively passengers.

The senior hospital management are well aware that these wards are runing unsafely yet still they are trying to cram more patients in (under instruction from the top I believe - threatened with financial penalties by the Government if they don't continue to deliver non-Corvid care targets, would you believe??). But still no sign of the Nightingale kicking in.

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Just now, Aggy said:

Well it was me saying it was not needed yet rather than the article - on the basis there’s nobody in it.

The medical director yesterday said they’re ready to start accepting people. Not sure why she would say that yesterday if they weren’t.
 

Whether they can staff full capacity, I don’t know. But if the medical director says they’re ready to start accepting patients, I can’t believe for one second they wouldn’t be able to accept any.

You're Manchester based aren't you Aggy? So you have a view on the Tier 3 arguments recently? Manchester certainly in the news a lot of late.

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26 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Guys - these are all the reasons why we desperately need to keep the lid on Covid. The NHS is obviously already in places on the brink and having to make uncomfortable decisions.

It really doesn't matter anymore why the NHS was understaffed before or the fibs told about the Nightingales  - it's what we do now that matters.

Very true, but in part due to the above the truth is that right now we have very few options and none of them good as far as the hospitals are concerned.

The only thing I can see that the Government could do that would have a moderately quick impact (apart from a proper short lockdown which they're clearly not going to do) would be to do what they've been told to do for months by virtually everyone - scrap Serco et al and hand test, trace and track over to local public health bodies with some real funding - unfortunately they've made it very clear they're not going to do that either.

Edited by Creative Midfielder

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I can agree - and as per WBB I don't think anybody's concerns with the government and Johnson in particular are traditional politics. I'm basically centre left  - but agree with some sort of poll tax - go figure - and don't like handouts for the work shy or those that don't try or just 'expect'.  Those that do need help or fall on hard times as anybody could get it with compassion not penny pinching though.  

For this government its all about incompetence or wishful thinking - You can almost guarantee whatever decision they make it will be the wrong one, the numbers spun or lied. From my American days they couldn't give away dollar bills in Times Square. They have dug such a hole they can't tell fact from fiction. 

He seems to have more and more attacks on him everyday and that is completely wrecking the public trust in anything he is saying. NI, Wales and Scotland taking different routes, Scientists going public with their dire predictions ( I am not saying the predictions are correct ), arguing in public with people like Burnham ( If he believed Manchester needed to be locked down if it was Sturgeon ( who I used to have little time for ) there wouldn’t have been negotiating ). I now see Spector is seriously questioning the official figures as playing down the situation. Care homes were given advice, which was completely ignored ( luckily ) by the care homes and they locked down and in this wave they are becoming the success story, however relatives are of course demanding an explanation as to why they can’t see their relatives. A proper leader would have crossed that hurdle 2 months ago.

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4 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Very true, but in part due to the above the truth is that right now we have very few options and none of them good as far as the hospitals are concerned.

The only thing I can see that the Government could do that would have a moderately quick impact (apart from a proper short lockdown which they're clearly not going to do) would be to do what they've been told to do for months by virtually everyone - scrap Serco et al and hand test, trace and track over to local public health bodies with some real funding - unfortunately they've made it very clear they're not going to do that either.

Personal opinion but if ( I stress if ) the virus continues on its rampage and spreads South, by Christmas we will be in a complete mess.

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15 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I think all that is right but the issue, I suspect, with trying to redistribute staff from other areas of the NHS is firstly that the NHS nationally is massively short of both nurses and doctors so even in areas with lower infection rates hospitals are likely to be understaffed already.

The other significant problem is that certainly for nurses, if not doctors, there are some very specific skills\training required for nursing Covid patients (use of ventilators being one of several) and these skills are not that common amongst nurses generally unless they have worked in A&E or Respiratory and even then not always - I guess quite a lot must have had training in recent months but what I can say for sure is that in our area we are having real problems on Covid wards because not omly are there insufficient numbers available to staff Covid wards properly (i.e. to run safely) but even within those numbers they are including nurses in the rota who don't have the skills required and so are effectively passengers.

The senior hospital management are well aware that these wards are runing unsafely yet still they are trying to cram more patients in (under instruction from the top I believe - threatened with financial penalties by the Government if they don't continue to deliver non-Corvid care targets, would you believe??). But still no sign of the Nightingale kicking in.

It is important that we always remember these wonderful people and as a nation always ensure NONE of the blame is ever laid at their doorsteps.

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I'm starting to believe that Labour are getting a better grip on strategy than the government. I'm pleased Sunak has changed his tack on tier 2. But Labour called for economic support to be brought in alongside the tiers when were introduced. Yet they met with deaf ears. Roll on two weeks and an outcry from Manchester (& Sheffield/South Yorkshire who've termed the tier 3 negotiations "tawdry") and we see the latest knee jerk response.

On the plus side, better late than never. 

Edited by sonyc
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9 minutes ago, Well b back said:

He seems to have more and more attacks on him everyday and that is completely wrecking the public trust in anything he is saying. NI, Wales and Scotland taking different routes, Scientists going public with their dire predictions ( I am not saying the predictions are correct ), arguing in public with people like Burnham ( If he believed Manchester needed to be locked down if it was Sturgeon ( who I used to have little time for ) there wouldn’t have been negotiating ). I now see Spector is seriously questioning the official figures as playing down the situation. Care homes were given advice, which was completely ignored ( luckily ) by the care homes and they locked down and in this wave they are becoming the success story, however relatives are of course demanding an explanation as to why they can’t see their relatives. A proper leader would have crossed that hurdle 2 months ago.

Frankly he's simply, completely and utterly out of his depth surrounded by floozies. Cummings wanted more 'science' based advisors and indeed managers last year - and then they wonder why anybody with any scientific background runs a mile from this bunch! 

As in any large successful business with decisive leaders there is moment to cut your losses and act for the greater good. It doesn't make you popular but it's right. 

In that nobody saw this coming I have some sympathy for him - but we now need effective leaders. Oh for Merkel.

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Just now, sonyc said:

You're Manchester based aren't you Aggy? So you have a view on the Tier 3 arguments recently? Manchester certainly in the news a lot of late.

Yep.

I think tier three (in current form) is pretty pointless and will cause more damage than good, but I also think it has recently been overplayed economically. I can’t get too excited about tier 3 vs 2 if I’m honest. Especially as tier 2 is “looser” than what GM has been in for months anyway - 3 is closer to what we’re used to over here (as I expect is the case where you are).

The difference between tier 2 and 3 is going to make a tiny difference to rates of infection. I mean what difference is closing pubs that don’t serve food but keeping everything else open going to make? Hospitality in total is supposed to account for no more than about 4 per cent of infections and this is a small proportion of the hospitality sector. There will be thousands of people out of jobs though as a result, so I do sort of wonder what the point is. That said, the large majority of businesses even in the hospitality sector can remain open in tier 3 so it isn’t the economic disaster some are making out (not that that helps those who are out of a job).

The recent arguing from Burnham et al seems to me to be as much as anything a point of principle and getting ready for the future. If we are going to shut things down again forcibly, the “replacement furlough” scheme needs to be reviewed. It means people get paid less and because of how it is structured, it also means businesses have less incentive  to keep two people on each getting some support via furlough than they are to keep one and let the other go. Politicians in GM (not just burnham but Tories as well) reckoned they needed the equivalent of the old furlough scheme to support people and the government haven’t given that. It’s quite clear that lockdowns, restrictions and circuit breaks have heath impacts, many of which would be made significantly better with proper financial support.

 

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4 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I'm starting to believe that Labour are getting a better grip on strategy than the government. I'm pleased Sunak has changed his tack on tier 2. But Labour called for economic support to be brought in alongside the tiers when were introduced. Yet they met with deaf ears. Roll on two weeks and an outcry from Manchester (& Sheffield/South Yorkshire who've termed the tier 3 negotiations "tawdry") and we see the latest knee jerk response.

On the plus side, better late than never. 

Yep

After gyms were considered where the virus spread most ( I no longer no if that’s true or not ) they now ( after the arguments in Lancs v Liverpool ) are perfectly safe. Another U-Turn another confusing message.

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6 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Yep

After gyms were considered where the virus spread most ( I no longer no if that’s true or not ) they now ( after the arguments in Lancs v Liverpool ) are perfectly safe. Another U-Turn another confusing message.

That is a weird decision I think. Gyms, you would think are places where the air you breathe is re-cycled and forcibly so? (The 3 C's). Likewise as @Aggy has pointed out, the hospitality industry appears to be responsible for about 4 to 5% of infections yet it is disproportionately affected through the measures.

You just have to assume it's the science guiding the decisions? Surely, no government would or could decide otherwise in such nuanced decisions like this. 

 

Edited by sonyc

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3 minutes ago, sonyc said:

That is a weird decision I think. Gyms, you would think are places where the air you breathe is re-cycled and forcibly so? (The 3 C's). Likewise as @Aggy has pointed out, the hospitality industry appears to be responsible for about 4 to 5% of infections yet it is disproportionately affected through the measures.

You just have to assume it's the science guiding the decisions? Surely, no government would or could decide otherwise in such nuanced decisions like this. 

 

I just question the 4 or 5% as to what that means.

Most infections are within the home or bubble.

What we really want to know is where it jumps from 'bubble' to 'bubble'.

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25 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I just question the 4 or 5% as to what that means.

Most infections are within the home or bubble.

What we really want to know is where it jumps from 'bubble' to 'bubble'.

I expect amongst the young, it is a mix between social venues and houses/apartments.

Amongst the most vulnerable/elderly, it will be far more having people over at home. 

Most hospitality venues are run very well in a covid secure manner. Having your grandkids round for tea and biscuits - on most occasions less likely to be as stringently covid secure as most hospitality venues. Edit: which presumably is why even the middle tier bans meeting at home/indoors from outside of your bubble.

 

Edited by Aggy

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1 hour ago, Aggy said:

I expect amongst the young, it is a mix between social venues and houses/apartments.

Amongst the most vulnerable/elderly, it will be far more having people over at home. 

Most hospitality venues are run very well in a covid secure manner. Having your grandkids round for tea and biscuits - on most occasions less likely to be as stringently covid secure as most hospitality venues. Edit: which presumably is why even the middle tier bans meeting at home/indoors from outside of your bubble.

 

 

As you r in Manchester just saw this - .

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/22/nightingale-to-reopen-as-liverpool-sets-new-covid-patient-record

 

Crunch.

A Nightingale hospital for coronavirus patients in north-west England will reopen next week after the number of people being treated by medics in Liverpool surpassed the peak of the first wave.

Prof Jane Eddleston, Greater Manchester’s medical lead on the coronavirus, said the huge makeshift facility in Manchester city centre would take recovering Covid patients from “the end of next week”.

Hospitals in the north-west of England are at the frontline of the second wave of coronavirus as the disease continues to spread rapidly, particularly in Greater Manchester and Liverpool, where medics are increasingly concerned about the number of over-60s becoming infected.

Dr Tristan Cope, medical director of Liverpool University hospitals, said the city was now treating more Covid-19 patients than they did in April at the peak of the first wave and that “numbers continue to rise”.

Liverpool’s three main hospitals were on Thursday treating 398 people with coronavirus, compared to 390 during their busiest day in the spring. Cope said hospital staff were under “a huge strain,” having to treat an increase in Covid patients alongside routine non-critical and emergency care.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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6 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

There is a simple but alarming answer to that point Ricardo.

If the vaccines fail to work effectively its very hard to see how any 'herd immunity' or 'previous exposure' approach would either. Herd immunity would rapidly fade too.

NZ hopes currently to simply to control the virus until such time as the guinea pigs in place like us prove an effective vaccine. It's a win-win for them. All the advantages and few of the downsides. If a vaccine is possible they will have it in the Spring.

Herd immunity is how every viral epidemic in history has come to an end. This one will be no different.

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25 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

As you r in Manchester just saw this - .

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/22/nightingale-to-reopen-as-liverpool-sets-new-covid-patient-record

 

Crunch.

A Nightingale hospital for coronavirus patients in north-west England will reopen next week after the number of people being treated by medics in Liverpool surpassed the peak of the first wave.

Prof Jane Eddleston, Greater Manchester’s medical lead on the coronavirus, said the huge makeshift facility in Manchester city centre would take recovering Covid patients from “the end of next week”.

Hospitals in the north-west of England are at the frontline of the second wave of coronavirus as the disease continues to spread rapidly, particularly in Greater Manchester and Liverpool, where medics are increasingly concerned about the number of over-60s becoming infected.

Dr Tristan Cope, medical director of Liverpool University hospitals, said the city was now treating more Covid-19 patients than they did in April at the peak of the first wave and that “numbers continue to rise”.

Liverpool’s three main hospitals were on Thursday treating 398 people with coronavirus, compared to 390 during their busiest day in the spring. Cope said hospital staff were under “a huge strain,” having to treat an increase in Covid patients alongside routine non-critical and emergency care.

Yep as said earlier - the number of patients in icu certainly in the GM Trusts is the same as last year, despite covid. They were 90-100 per cent full last year. So we aren’t seeing (yet) covid causing more capacity issues in icu than is normal for this time of the year, but that the nightingales are open and ready to function can only help. I’m sure had the nightingales been open last year, Tameside (100 per cent icu  capacity in October 2019) would have liked to have made use of them.

Not that it is relevant to now, but no doubt there will be questions asked as to why the current government hasn’t bothered to help these capacity issues in the past when we managed to extremely quickly get some set up this year (albeit only temporary and with various issues - a proper long term plan might have avoided the need).

Why there isn’t an increase from last year is an interesting one. It’s only in icu rather than hospitals as a whole (no idea what the figures are for that), which might suggest we have a better handle on being able to treat people and stop them from escalating from “normal” hospital to intensive care and/or can get them back out of icu quicker. It might be that many of those who are in icu with covid might well have been the people who would have been in there with something else now.

The comments re increase in over 60s being infected reflect almost exactly those of Richard Leese and what he said GM medics were concerned about. If you’re vulnerable/retirement age, sensible to “shield” even if the government isn’t making you.

Edited by Aggy

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Just now, Van wink said:

Many of the vulnerable are unable to effectively shield.

So none should try and protect themselves?

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As I said yesterday, if the only argument against shielding is that some people can’t or won’t, or that it isn’t “democratic”, then the same arguments can be used for virtually every possible measure you can think of.

Suggesting elderly vulnerable people shouldn’t try and shield because some of them can’t do so is bonkers. 

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11 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Many of the vulnerable are unable to effectively shield.

Out of interest van wink, genuine question, are you against full nationwide lockdown like we had in March for the same reason? 
 

Yes there will be some multi generational households but a tiny minority. For the extreme majority of elderly and vulnerable people, what’s the difference between full nationwide lockdown and shielding now? 

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49 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Herd immunity is how every viral epidemic in history has come to an end. This one will be no different.

Worrying reports on ZOE of more and more second infections.

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I wouldn’t have released lockdown when the figures were as high as they were, I wouldn’t have opened up as much as we did, both of which would have lead to a much lower level of community infection than we see now, I would also have gone for a full lock down circuit breaker as and when recommended by SAGE, having failed miserably on the previous two points.

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Hi Ricardo

If you are watching the presser they just absoloutely said there are between 53 and 90,000 positives a day currently. They expect that to increase substantially when the new figures come out tomorrow.

 

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