Jump to content
Fuzzar

Corona Virus main thread

Recommended Posts

They repeated it in the questions as they were astonished by the three surveys they put up. I have quoted the SKY question below.

He suggests that daily case numbers of 40,000-50,000 a day surely justify more "draconian" action and asks whether the UK is ignoring the lessons of the first wave in not now considering some sort of circuit break, as is being contemplated in Wales.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The official figures announced for the 14 days to 8/10 were as below, and it would have by now increased by 40 - 60 %.

  • New cases numbered 362,000 in the two weeks to 8 October - "a big increase"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, ricardo said:

image.png.bfedea53735f8ac240ca7ac111e736a0.png

TBH I wouldn't put much faith in any of our numbers any more - of course there are still significant regional differences in rates of infection but the message I got yesterday direct from the Covid frontline in our one of our city centre teaching hospitals is that things are already far worse than in March\April!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

TBH I wouldn't put much faith in any of our numbers any more - of course there are still significant regional differences in rates of infection but the message I got yesterday direct from the Covid frontline in our one of our city centre teaching hospitals is that things are already far worse than in March\April!!

Agreed

I was gob smacked when I saw those figures yesterday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

304k  tests

16171 - 150            7days ago 15166         14 days ago  12872

 

Inpatients  5608 up by 297 since yesterday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1010 - 55

France 25086 - 122

Spain  12169 - 222

Germany  7976 - 26

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

304k  tests

16171 - 150            7days ago 15166         14 days ago  12872

 

Inpatients  5608 up by 297 since yesterday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1010 - 55

France 25086 - 122

Spain  12169 - 222

Germany  7976 - 26

Still confused, yesterday by the governments own admission there were 40-50000 new cases on Thursday. And for the 2 weeks to the 8/10 there were 362,000 new cases. They then said this was doubling each 10 days. I assume the difference is the number of confirmed cases with a test against the number of actuals as confirmed by Oxford, Zoe and that other one they said yesterday ? and only a 1/3 of confirmed tests are actually having a test ie loads of asymptotic and people that don’t want or can’t get a test.

He suggests that daily case numbers of 40,000-50,000 a day surely justify more "draconian" action and asks whether the UK is ignoring the lessons of the first wave in not now considering some sort of circuit break, as is being contemplated in Wales.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Still confused, yesterday by the governments own admission there were 40-50000 new cases on Thursday. And for the 2 weeks to the 8/10 there were 362,000 new cases. They then said this was doubling each 10 days. I assume the difference is the number of confirmed cases with a test against the number of actuals as confirmed by Oxford, Zoe and that other one they said yesterday ? and only a 1/3 of confirmed tests are actually having a test ie loads of asymptotic and people that don’t want or can’t get a test.

He suggests that daily case numbers of 40,000-50,000 a day surely justify more "draconian" action and asks whether the UK is ignoring the lessons of the first wave in not now considering some sort of circuit break, as is being contemplated in Wales.

You shouldn't be, these are the confirmed positives from the actual tests, not estimations based on reported symptoms.

The reported numbers are what we go by for worldwide statistics not ZOE estimations or guesswork. If numbers were doubling every seven or ten days we would be seeing it in the official stats and quite clearly we are not. I strongly suspect that we are near the top in infections and the rate of hospitalisations should top out soon.

The coming week will tell if we are plateauing or indeed already past peak.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at massive numbers here, if the age profile of those infected continues to shift there is every chance that number of infections may start to come down but at the same time hospitalisations increase. Time will tell.

DB706C08-9E89-4AEC-969E-A7F728D0B9DD.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Looking at massive numbers here, if the age profile of those infected continues to shift there is every chance that number of infections may start to come down but at the same time hospitalisations increase. Time will tell.

DB706C08-9E89-4AEC-969E-A7F728D0B9DD.png

I have a suspicion that a lot of the recent headline surge is highly tested and easily quarantined students in halls of residence. These cases have probably platued and may even be dropping. However rhe pace is being picked up now n the general and more diffuse community. ONS and Zoe may well reflect this. Tough times ahead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I have a suspicion that a lot of the recent headline surge is highly tested and easily quarantined students in halls of residence. These cases have probably platued and may even be dropping. However rhe pace is being picked up now n the general and more diffuse community. ONS and Zoe may well reflect this. Tough times ahead.

Yeh, those are my thoughts too. Hospitalisations will be surging soon, tough times indeed 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Ricardo

Then I am even more confused. Unless I misheard and I am happy to be corrected they said they no longer go on the daily figures as they are clearly no longer relevant and we are now at 40 - 50,000 a day hence the reason to lock various areas down. 
Please tell me if I have misunderstood somebody.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi Ricardo

Then I am even more confused. Unless I misheard and I am happy to be corrected they said they no longer go on the daily figures as they are clearly no longer relevant and we are now at 40 - 50,000 a day hence the reason to lock various areas down. 
Please tell me if I have misunderstood somebody.

The figures you have seen may be based on the latest ons survey as shown below, this relates to 2-8 October so they may have extrapolated the figures to bring them up to date? And these are just England of course.

“During the most recent week (2 to 8 October 2020), we estimate there were around 5.11 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 4.15 to 6.99) in the community population in England, equating to around 27,900 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 22,700 to 38,200).”

Edited by Van wink

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi Ricardo

Then I am even more confused. Unless I misheard and I am happy to be corrected they said they no longer go on the daily figures as they are clearly no longer relevant and we are now at 40 - 50,000 a day hence the reason to lock various areas down. 
Please tell me if I have misunderstood somebody.

I think the ONS number (true random sample) was about 28000 (England) on the 8th (95% confidence was something like 22 to 38K). Bear in mind this is the true estimate of the number of cases not just those tested hence asymptomatic as well and hence far more informative for policy than the self selecting daily test numbers.

Given that this statistical sample was of the 8th October and a doubling time of say 10 days its easy to see why it could now be actually 40 to 50K day. Panic.

As per VW Zoe seems currently more inline with ONS. ONS and certainly ZOE give lead estimates -  the daily numbers are lag.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Van wink said:

The figures you have seen may be based on the latest ons survey as shown below, this relates to 2-8 October so they may have extrapolated the figures to bring them up to date? 

During the most recent week (2 to 8 October 2020), we estimate there were around 5.11 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 4.15 to 6.99) in the community population in England, equating to around 27,900 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 22,700 to 38,200).

Doubled up 😄

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still don’t get it, I am sure they said they do not take any notice of this figure anymore. Maybe I am being very thick but yesterday there were 792 hospital admissions for Covid. There are more daily admissions in each of the North East, North West and Midlands ( the lowest was Midlands with 230 ) than the national figure in the official figures of each days admissions. If you take the total English admissions at 127,622 over 7 months that averages out at around 608 per day. image.thumb.png.d5c3780485286323b01fac7ca9622206.png
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Well b back said:

Still don’t get it, I am sure they said they do not take any notice of this figure anymore. Maybe I am being very thick but yesterday there were 792 hospital admissions for Covid. There are more daily admissions in each of the North East, North West and Midlands ( the lowest was Midlands with 230 ) than the national figure in the official figures of each days admissions. If you take the total English admissions at 127,622 over 7 months that averages out at around 608 per day. image.thumb.png.d5c3780485286323b01fac7ca9622206.png
 

What you are not seeing is the numbers leaving hospital. The number on the official data page are those in hospital on that current day. Yes 792 may well have entered hospital but on the official figures it looks like over 500 left.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really am not trying to argue, but on Friday they said the test and trace figures are a long way out and they no longer use them. ( see the link below. Based on the ONS figures their model try’s to bring the figures up to date and their model ( the one which the government and SAGE are using ) have daily infections at 43,000. At 30 minutes and 31 minutes these points are made saying test and trace numbers  are a small proportion of what’s really happening. Then at 46 minutes SKY change their question to ask why the government are not locking down based on these figures. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000nzkn/bbc-news-special-coronavirus-update-16102020

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I really am not trying to argue, but on Friday they said the test and trace figures are a long way out and they no longer use them. ( see the link below. Based on the ONS figures their model try’s to bring the figures up to date and their model ( the one which the government and SAGE are using ) have daily infections at 43,000. At 30 minutes and 31 minutes these points are made saying test and trace numbers  are a small proportion of what’s really happening. Then at 46 minutes SKY change their question to ask why the government are not locking down based on these figures. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000nzkn/bbc-news-special-coronavirus-update-16102020

No argument from me WBB. As per me (and VW) and indeed Vallence the current 'confirmed' cases are only a proportion (and very misleading) for any policy decision - indeed also on the course and spread of the virus. That why they are largely ignored and only the ONS (plus the academic sampling/studies) are used. I've been making that point on the 'daily' figures since last March although they make good headline figures for the unwary.

Ditto 'deaths' and indeed hospital admissions at 'face' value. Lots of reporting delays hence usually best to wait a week to see how they settle down. 

Frankly the experts have much better handle on this (and on unseens local data sets) than the average layman like you or me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

No argument from me WBB. As per me (and VW) and indeed Vallence the current 'confirmed' cases are only a proportion (and very misleading) for any policy decision - indeed also on the course and spread of the virus. That why they are largely ignored and only the ONS (plus the academic sampling/studies) are used. I've been making that point on the 'daily' figures since last March although they make good headline figures for the unwary.

Ditto 'deaths' and indeed hospital admissions at 'face' value. Lots of reporting delays hence usually best to wait a week to see how they settle down. 

Frankly the experts have much better handle on this (and on unseens local data sets) than the average layman like you or me.

Thanks thought I was going mad.

I don’t like to be confrontational as you know and I am always happy to be corrected. To that end the person I know on the frontline who keeps telling me about how bad it is I asked why is there such a difference in the hospital figures and the government figures ( when she was on the phone to my wife ). She told me 4 alarming things, 1. A proportion of ICU deaths do not even count anymore as it takes an average of 21 days to die once you go to ICU, therefore a % will die over 28 days as they go over 28 days of being diagnosed. 2.Lots still die at home and it is really quick, so a frail 80 year old for instance will likely die without a test. 3. I asked why if the number of net admissions are going up so slowly why are they so swamped. Her explanation was the figures we are seeing conveniently do not have the deaths added, so if there are 150 hospital deaths in a day, that will look like 150 discharges. 4. To keep the hospital beds as open as possible several homes and places of rest are designated as recovery areas, ie you are no longer thought to be contagious, you are no longer likely to die, but you still need hospital care. You are therefore discharged, but under normal circumstances you wouldn’t be. 
I would guess we are somewhere in the middle, ie the government are feeding us headline figures which we take without question, and for those on the frontline ( with the greatest of respect ) see it at the worst then add some. 
To add some positivity, she is hopeful that not so many people will die this time round, but added scarily that of course the less deaths there are the more swamped they will become. 
Now you must remember as well we live in the Midlands. When I lived in Norwich during phase 1 we were sheltered and it was difficult to comprehend what was happening. Now I see it in a different light and in some areas once it takes hold it is like a tsunami.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

don’t like to be confrontational as you know and I am always happy to be corrected. To that end the person I know on the frontline who keeps telling me about how bad it is I asked why is there such a difference in the hospital figures and the government figures "

 

Thanks WBB. Like you I'm not an awkward person but I have reached the stage of not believing the figures provided by government. I've probably been a gullible believer before. I tend to trust Zoe more because it is independent, whilst the source of course is people self-reporting. Where I live I watch new infection rates go from +200 some days to +1000 (the latter is not just one day but on many days in the last month, occasionally there are lower figures.... so from 6000 it can go to 5200 for example). So, I imagine if my city area is representative (it probably is a decent guide) then daily infection rates must be at least 10 times the daily increase in my city, purely on projections of population. Probably more. It's made me believe that new infection rates must be north of 50,000 each day. I'm no expert but I watch the figures and try and apply common sense.

 

I don't wish to be scaremongering either, don't see the point. Yet I'm wary of the official figures and especially of people with over-confident positions I read in the media. So I treat assertions that things are not at the stage where we should worry with a degree of scepticism yet hope my caution is ill-founded and that I'm  badly informed. I don't know who to believe!

Edited by sonyc
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Thanks thought I was going mad.

I don’t like to be confrontational as you know and I am always happy to be corrected. To that end the person I know on the frontline who keeps telling me about how bad it is I asked why is there such a difference in the hospital figures and the government figures ( when she was on the phone to my wife ). She told me 4 alarming things, 1. A proportion of ICU deaths do not even count anymore as it takes an average of 21 days to die once you go to ICU, therefore a % will die over 28 days as they go over 28 days of being diagnosed. 2.Lots still die at home and it is really quick, so a frail 80 year old for instance will likely die without a test. 3. I asked why if the number of net admissions are going up so slowly why are they so swamped. Her explanation was the figures we are seeing conveniently do not have the deaths added, so if there are 150 hospital deaths in a day, that will look like 150 discharges. 4. To keep the hospital beds as open as possible several homes and places of rest are designated as recovery areas, ie you are no longer thought to be contagious, you are no longer likely to die, but you still need hospital care. You are therefore discharged, but under normal circumstances you wouldn’t be. 
I would guess we are somewhere in the middle, ie the government are feeding us headline figures which we take without question, and for those on the frontline ( with the greatest of respect ) see it at the worst then add some. 
To add some positivity, she is hopeful that not so many people will die this time round, but added scarily that of course the less deaths there are the more swamped they will become. 
Now you must remember as well we live in the Midlands. When I lived in Norwich during phase 1 we were sheltered and it was difficult to comprehend what was happening. Now I see it in a different light and in some areas once it takes hold it is like a tsunami.

No worries from me - All opinion is good but I just caution about trying to read unduly 'positive' meanings (not that good new isn't good) from dodgy data sets. Rubbish in rubbish out etc. Seems like 'Sky'  or was it the 'BBC' as you note came to the same conclusions on a serious informed programme. As you know I keep saying 'no wishful thinking' - its too serious and indeed unethical / immoral to gamble peoples lives on a hunch. Keep to the basics of what we know works as to public health unless you have good data to the contrary.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

No worries from me - All opinion is good but I just caution about trying to read unduly 'positive' meanings (not that good new isn't good) from dodgy data sets. Rubbish in rubbish out etc. Seems like 'Sky'  or was it the 'BBC' as you note came to the same conclusions on a serious informed programme. As you know I keep saying 'no wishful thinking' - its too serious and indeed unethical / immoral to gamble peoples lives on a hunch. Keep to the basics of what we know works as to public health unless you have good data to the contrary.

I agree.

I now tend to think that everybody that has an interest adds their own take. Andy Burnham is just quoted as saying there were 4 admissions yesterday so Johnson is scaremongering. Now I suspect he is telling the truth, but basing his figures on one hospital rather than than the area. If however his statement is correct I tend to agree why are Manchester locking down and London not.
I am at the stage where I have no idea who to believe anymore, why can’t we be treated like adults and given the facts. Surely with the facts people can decide for themselves if they should socially distance ect ect more.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54436334
 

excellent article of the true cost of covid 19

its not all transmission rates and death rates. It’s ruining people’s lives and damaging them permanently. Physically and mentally. That’s why I totally oppose another national lockdown. There must be another way of fighting this virus and managing the other effects it has. 

Edited by The Real Buh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...