Corona Virus main thread

[dj11 377]

11 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Now this is what you call track trace, or even trace and track.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54504785

But we will have operation Moonshot. 

[Well b back 3,190]

I don’t know about others but I am getting highly confused with this student thing. Just the other day somebody kindly put on an email from their MP saying positive students were being cOusted from their home address not their student address. Today the Nottingham leaders ( including the Labour MP ) are arguing that the local lockdown should not be happening as ‘ most of the cases in Nottingham are Students ‘. Something’s amiss here, are students and education the real drivers behind these big outbreaks and because of the reluctance to close education ( certainly schools most agree with ) a few white fibs are being told. Personally I have no idea but if these student figures are to be believed some days it’s 2/3 of the countries positives.

[sonyc 5,492]

42 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm a bit lost.   Do you support the tier system or is there a better way?

I think clarity of message will be far improved Bb. The 'stay alert' message has not been understood universally.

The greatest problem for places in the north of there is another few months of business interruption will see many people struggle. The 66% support I think is possibly not going to sustain people. If you are a huge company you may survive, if a small concern you won't (bit like the Premier League analogy I suppose). 

There are no easy answers are there? I suppose the biggest hope, to repeat once again, is the vaccine.

Apart from a couple of weeks (it feels like that) my wife has not been able to see her elderly mother since March....her "support bubble" is a few miles closer. It is ironic that the north is affected far worse, given the so called levelling up agenda (Liverpool especially) given how out of touch many people feel with successive Conservative governments (read John Harris's article yesterday in the Guardian)...that policy is London-centric. Before, investment was often left to administrations seeking European support (ERDF, ESF) but that is about to become a thing of the past. The crux is of course, structural or macro-economic. Maybe this government recognised the problem with its infrastructure policies pre pandemic. And it finds itself stymied now of course.

 

[Well b back 3,190]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

I think clarity of message will be far improved Bb. The 'stay alert' message has not been understood universally.

The greatest problem for places in the north of there is another few months of business interruption will see many people struggle. The 66% support I think is possibly not going to sustain people. If you are a huge company you may survive, if a small concern you won't (bit like the Premier League analogy I suppose). 

There are no easy answers are there? I suppose the biggest hope, to repeat once again, is the vaccine.

Apart from a couple of weeks (it feels like that) my wife has not been able to see her elderly mother since March....her "support bubble" is a few miles closer. It is ironic that the north is affected far worse, given the so called levelling up agenda (Liverpool especially) given how out of touch many people feel with successive Conservative governments (read John Harris's article yesterday in the Guardian)...that policy is London-centric. Before, investment was often left to administrations seeking European support (ERDF, ESF) but that is about to become a thing of the past. The crux is of course, structural or macro-economic. Maybe this government recognised the problem with its infrastructure policies pre pandemic. And it finds itself stymied now of course.

 

Oxford told the government if they change the message to stay alert at the beginning July exactly what would happen, but they chose to ignore them.

[sonyc 5,492]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

I don’t know about others but I am getting highly confused with this student thing. Just the other day somebody kindly put on an email from their MP saying positive students were being cOusted from their home address not their student address. Today the Nottingham leaders ( including the Labour MP ) are arguing that the local lockdown should not be happening as ‘ most of the cases in Nottingham are Students ‘. Something’s amiss here, are students and education the real drivers behind these big outbreaks and because of the reluctance to close education ( certainly schools most agree with ) a few white fibs are being told. Personally I have no idea but if these student figures are to be believed some days it’s 2/3 of the countries positives.

I believe you touch on an important matter. The worry is students bringing the virus into more vulnerable communities locally. I still think the confluence of the 3 C's outlined in the report It's Character Forming posted is very relevant.

[sonyc 5,492]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Oxford told the government if they change the message to stay alert at the beginning July exactly what would happen, but they chose to ignore them.

Talking to people (a whole variety) where I live, there is a very wide range of opinion, understanding, confusion and I ought to say, ignorance, about what they are allowed to do. Many people have been breaking the rule of 6, household mixing and social distancing (eating out and in pubs, family outings etc). I see examples every day. Of course many people follow the protocols but I'm pointing out it is far from consistent. I guess that's our culture and human nature ("it will never happen to me").

[Well b back 3,190]

Just now, sonyc said:

Talking to people (a whole variety) where I live, there is a very wide range of opinion, understanding, confusion and I ought to say, ignorance, about what they are allowed to do. Many people have been breaking the rule of 6, household mixing and social distancing (eating out and in pubs, family outings etc). I see examples every day. Of course many people follow the protocols but I'm pointing out it is far from consistent. I guess that's our culture and human nature ("it will never happen to me").

Yes ( you may remember from the come on Sarah thread ) Oxford actually said by changing the message to stay alert exactly as you have mentioned would happen and by the time we got to around now the virus would have taken hold.

I know it’s a difficult job, but they keep quoting hindsight as though they were never told. Oxford work for the government regards the advice side. And just to say because I note a lot of Oxford comments, yesterday was really worrying. Again 4 months ago you may remember from the other thread the emergence of BCG ( TB vaccine as a protector, not a vaccine ). Oxford immediately recommended this needs to be looked at quickly due to The South African medical paper results, ie 78% less likely to develop severe symptoms. Yesterday we see headlines that we are just starting BCG trials, yet again we are so far behind the world.

[Barbe bleu 816]

33 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Talking to people (a whole variety) where I live, there is a very wide range of opinion, understanding, confusion and I ought to say, ignorance, about what they are allowed to do. Many people have been breaking the rule of 6, household mixing and social distancing (eating out and in pubs, family outings etc). I see examples every day. Of course many people follow the protocols but I'm pointing out it is far from consistent. I guess that's our culture and human nature ("it will never happen to me").

I agree that there is  lack of understanding about the technical details and working out the precise details of what is allowed and what is banned and what is allowed but advised against requires pretty close analysis of the documents.

That said though there is not an adult in the country who doesn't have a very keen grasp on what they can do to help out.  Problem is that in many cases they choose to ignore it or consider compliance to be someone else's responsibility

I guess this really is a time when we are exploring the limits of our liiberal freedoms and our basic human rights.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

I don’t know about others but I am getting highly confused with this student thing. Just the other day somebody kindly put on an email from their MP saying positive students were being cOusted from their home address not their student address. Today the Nottingham leaders ( including the Labour MP ) are arguing that the local lockdown should not be happening as ‘ most of the cases in Nottingham are Students ‘. Something’s amiss here, are students and education the real drivers behind these big outbreaks and because of the reluctance to close education ( certainly schools most agree with ) a few white fibs are being told. Personally I have no idea but if these student figures are to be believed some days it’s 2/3 of the countries positives.

I think the student thing derives from where the student's GP is registered. Many will still have or kept the 'home' address.

Ergo many 'student ' positives may show up in far flung towns but it's probably to certain extent swings and roundabouts.

Stick to the random ONS data. Tells people where it is and what's it's doing.

 

[sonyc 5,492]

The Nightingales are being prepared then as posters have initimated. Looking at those graphs from the scientist briefing just now (Stephen Powys ...hospitalisations & Van Tam...age profiles for older people affected) it could be two weeks away for Liverpool to be at its April peak. Hopefully the latest outbreak can be stabilised soon. Good to hear that ICU survival rates have improved.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

30 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I agree that there is  lack of understanding about the technical details and working out the precise details of what is allowed and what is banned and what is allowed but advised against requires pretty close analysis of the documents.

That said though there is not an adult in the country who doesn't have a very keen grasp on what they can do to help out.  Problem is that in many cases they choose to ignore it or consider compliance to be someone else's responsibility

I guess this really is a time when we are exploring the limits of our liiberal freedoms and our basic human rights.

Somebody said that the real issue is that many of us if not most of us keep 'bending' the rules slightly (it's not me - honest 😉 ) - we meet grandparents and extended family, have small parties of 6 or 7, don't really isolate at the pubs and restaurants properly. Some refuse masks and so on. Result is the virus makes hay. We are all to blame for our relaxed complacent current attitude.

If true, it's only too easy to see why only a severe lock-down really works - one you can't avoid.   

 

[king canary 7,580]

So I'm on the ONS/Oxford study and had my first swab today- not a pleasant experience!

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

2 hours ago, dj11 said:

But we will have operation Moonshot. 

😂 Yes indeed, although as we all know its real name should be operation Moonshine............

[sonyc 5,492]

9 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

😂 Yes indeed, although as we all know its real name should be operation Moonshine............

Made of green cheese I think.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

7 hours ago, Herman said:

Having Shapps as my MP is finally paying off. 😐 

Good luck to all of you based in the North.

we have a Tory "yes man" in Harrogate so hoping that saves us from a proper shafting! I've got the gym tomorrow and footy Weds so...

[Tetteys Jig 830]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Somebody said that the real issue is that many of us if not most of us keep 'bending' the rules slightly (it's not me - honest 😉 ) - we meet grandparents and extended family, have small parties of 6 or 7, don't really isolate at the pubs and restaurants properly. Some refuse masks and so on. Result is the virus makes hay. We are all to blame for our relaxed complacent current attitude.

If true, it's only too easy to see why only a severe lock-down really works - one you can't avoid.   

 

how long can you batter a country with severe lockdown though? Yes it was viable in March but now the cat is out of the bag and the wallet is empty, now what?

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Somebody said that the real issue is that many of us if not most of us keep 'bending' the rules slightly (it's not me - honest 😉 ) - we meet grandparents and extended family, have small parties of 6 or 7, don't really isolate at the pubs and restaurants properly. Some refuse masks and so on. Result is the virus makes hay. We are all to blame for our relaxed complacent current attitude.

If true, it's only too easy to see why only a severe lock-down really works - one you can't avoid.   

 

Looks as if fixed penalties are being used more, student party in Norwich, c100 people, some with symptoms, three fined £10k each. Good luck getting the money. Of course this should have been happening a lot sooner and the traffic light system we will now see should have been worked up, widely consulted on and gained approval over the summer so it could be implemented on a regional basis when the inevitable happened without the uproar we now see.Another example of failing to make good use of the time we all bought ourselves.

[ricardo 7,349]

1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

how long can you batter a country with severe lockdown though? Yes it was viable in March but now the cat is out of the bag and the wallet is empty, now what?

I expect it will end in tiers.

[Mr Angry 1,547]

16 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I expect it will end in tiers.

Yeah, we’re the only area in Tier 3-Liverpool’s latest figures are 599 cases per 100,000. We’re much lower on The Wirral than a lot of other areas. We’ve been careful since March so the new measures won’t make any difference to our life.

[ricardo 7,349]

285k  tests

13972 - 50

Inpatients  3837 not updated since Saturday, actual data is from Thursday 8th Oct.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   5456 - 29

France 16101 - 46

Spain  not updated again

Germany  2838 - 11

All countries more or less in the same ballpark as they were a week ago. France and Spain seem to flucuate more than Germany and Italy but little sign of any exponential increase in these numbers.

Edited October 12, 2020 by ricardo

[ricardo 7,349]

[Barbe bleu 816]

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

 Of course this should have been happening a lot sooner and the traffic light system we will now see should have been worked up, widely consulted on and gained approval over the summer

This tiered approach is just a repackage of the original idea.   The boffins said in March or April that we would be in an put of lockdown for a while and we have already seen limited lockdown with tailored requirements for many weeks now.

You could argue that this approach has been under consultation since 2019 when it all started

 

[Van wink 2,994]

46 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

This tiered approach is just a repackage of the original idea.   The boffins said in March or April that we would be in an put of lockdown for a while and we have already seen limited lockdown with tailored requirements for many weeks now.

You could argue that this approach has been under consultation since 2019 when it all started

 

You could argue that, but a more persuasive argument would be that the government fails to consult.

[ricardo 7,349]

[Barbe bleu 816]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

You could argue that, but a more persuasive argument would be that the government fails to consult.

I suspect you're right. Of course this begs the question 'so what'. 

[sonyc 5,492]

6 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

we have a Tory "yes man" in Harrogate so hoping that saves us from a proper shafting! I've got the gym tomorrow and footy Weds so...

OT:  I'm watching my second team (Bradford) ...maybe you've seen Harrogate are live on the telly too TJ?

[Tetteys Jig 830]

7 minutes ago, sonyc said:

OT:  I'm watching my second team (Bradford) ...maybe you've seen Harrogate are live on the telly too TJ?

yup, watching right now! Only live game I managed to go to was a pre season one vs Brighouse (they must be low enough level to allow fans). Crazy how far town have come in recent years! I used to play for the development team and other than not falling over when I take a penalty, I'm pretty rubbish 😆

[Van wink 2,994]

16 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I suspect you're right. Of course this begs the question 'so what'. 

So you need to take people with you, especially with something like this, that works best if they at least feel they have a voice.

[Barbe bleu 816]

7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

So you need to take people with you, especially with something like this, that works best if they at least feel they have a voice.

Possibly, we certainly need people to buy into this again.

Whether Joe Anderson being on a Teams chat where he adds his in-depth knowledge of epidemiology to the conversation will achieve this or not i dont know. 

That being said I do think there is a role for different voices in policy making.

Edited October 12, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,182]

last week, 2 of our lads at work tested positive. The guidance we got was that anyone who had used the site canteen where they sit breaktimes, or their toilets, should quarantine, so we sent virtually the whole site home. 3 of us in the office don´t really use the canteen. So we stayed on. My work contact details were  not passed to the track and trace system by my manager

I had a text message yesterday, on my work phone, telling me to quarantine. God knows how they got my number, I thought it was a mistake. I contacted the tracing team today and they think I was with someone positive last Tuesday at work. I´m pretty certain I wasn´t....

A good point and a bad point. It shows that the tracing system here is working really well when they can contact me on a number neither I or my employer has given them (I have a tracing app on my personal phone). But then  again, because it was my work phone, I didn´t pick up the message until today, and I didn´t know not to go to the pub last night

I have a test tomorrow, hopefully back at work Wednesday, latest Thursday