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I’m not quite sure where I’m going to end up with this post so apologies if it turns into a bit of a rant but these protesters and their ilk just make me so angry. 

Six years ago I made the decision to leave the UK and move out here to New Zealand. What a great decision that has turned out to be. Apart from the great lifestyle, how nice it is to have a government that at least seems 90% competent when it comes to Covid and its response. A defined plan, a clear message passed on to the populace by daily press briefings and a population on board with very, very few exceptions. As such, over six months down the line and we still have fewer than 2000 cases and only 25 deaths. Life goes on pretty much as normal given the world we currently live in, just without the tourists which is the biggest hit to the economy. 

Every country seems to have their conspiracy theory loons but seeing protesters complaining of tyranny and loss of civil liberties and infringement of their human rights just winds me up. There are many countries in the world with tyrannical rulers but the UK is such a long way from that. Go visit those countries, try protesting the government and you might find out what tyranny really looks like. Anyone care to explain to me which part of the Bill of Human Rights these protestors have had violated. Certainly not the part about being allowed to protest peacefully without fear of arrest. As for civil liberties, I’m not entirely sure what is meant by that but the way these people talk about them is what really angers me. How is wearing a mask or having to social distance to stop the spread of a highly infectious, potentially debilitating or lethal disease such a problem. If everyone sucked it up and did what was required for 6-8 weeks you could bring it under control and then go back to a normal life. Instead, that seems to much to ask of many people and my parents ( in their 80s and living in Scotland) have now been in total lockdown for more than seven months. And I mean total lockdown. They just don’t leave the house. What about their civil liberties to be able to go outside and live their lives without fear of being infected with something that has a high chance of killing at least one of them. With the increase in cases and winter coming, to potentially make things worse I have no idea when they will be able to get out and about. I can’t see it being 2020 so probably another 5 months at least. They’ve been ok so far because it’s been summer and they’ve been able to spend time in the garden but I worry for their psychological well-being over the winter. Words can’t describe the loathing I feel for these people and their selfishness. 

Apologies to anyone who has read this far but I just needed somewhere to sound off and voice my worries and anger at the way things seem to be in the UK. 

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Feel free to sound off. I agree with you. The limitations have really been generally quite minimal to most. The error was in coming out out of lockdown much to early amd not finishing the job. Snakes and ladders and we just slipped down a Johnson snake back to the start.

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41 minutes ago, Yellow Kiwi said:

I’m not quite sure where I’m going to end up with this post so apologies if it turns into a bit of a rant but these protesters and their ilk just make me so angry. 

Six years ago I made the decision to leave the UK and move out here to New Zealand. What a great decision that has turned out to be. Apart from the great lifestyle, how nice it is to have a government that at least seems 90% competent when it comes to Covid and its response. A defined plan, a clear message passed on to the populace by daily press briefings and a population on board with very, very few exceptions. As such, over six months down the line and we still have fewer than 2000 cases and only 25 deaths. Life goes on pretty much as normal given the world we currently live in, just without the tourists which is the biggest hit to the economy. 

Every country seems to have their conspiracy theory loons but seeing protesters complaining of tyranny and loss of civil liberties and infringement of their human rights just winds me up. There are many countries in the world with tyrannical rulers but the UK is such a long way from that. Go visit those countries, try protesting the government and you might find out what tyranny really looks like. Anyone care to explain to me which part of the Bill of Human Rights these protestors have had violated. Certainly not the part about being allowed to protest peacefully without fear of arrest. As for civil liberties, I’m not entirely sure what is meant by that but the way these people talk about them is what really angers me. How is wearing a mask or having to social distance to stop the spread of a highly infectious, potentially debilitating or lethal disease such a problem. If everyone sucked it up and did what was required for 6-8 weeks you could bring it under control and then go back to a normal life. Instead, that seems to much to ask of many people and my parents ( in their 80s and living in Scotland) have now been in total lockdown for more than seven months. And I mean total lockdown. They just don’t leave the house. What about their civil liberties to be able to go outside and live their lives without fear of being infected with something that has a high chance of killing at least one of them. With the increase in cases and winter coming, to potentially make things worse I have no idea when they will be able to get out and about. I can’t see it being 2020 so probably another 5 months at least. They’ve been ok so far because it’s been summer and they’ve been able to spend time in the garden but I worry for their psychological well-being over the winter. Words can’t describe the loathing I feel for these people and their selfishness. 

Apologies to anyone who has read this far but I just needed somewhere to sound off and voice my worries and anger at the way things seem to be in the UK. 

spot on mate, thats what right wing populism does to a country full of unintelligent and selfish people.

I wish the protesters would just admit they have little care for the elderly above their own selfish wants and needs in life rather than all this rubbish on conspiracies and civil rights etc.

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3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 It doesn't however negate the 6 months paid holiday for many (the majority) who simply took advantage of it. 

I really don't understand where you are coming from here though.

They are paid 80% of their wages / up to £2500 to not do any work for their employer

They aren't taking advantage of that by not working, they are doing as instructed and legally required. 

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6 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

I really don't understand where you are coming from here though.

They are paid 80% of their wages / up to £2500 to not do any work for their employer

They aren't taking advantage of that by not working, they are doing as instructed and legally required. 

Back to the original comment Sunak popularity. For most 6 month paid holiday. A bit like free beer.

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yet another drop today (245k tests 2.3% positives) lowest in five days

5693 - 17

Inpatients  1727 still awaiting update

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1869 -17

France 14412 - 39

Spain  ?

Germany  1319 - 2

 

Edited by ricardo

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21 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

I really don't understand where you are coming from here though.

They are paid 80% of their wages / up to £2500 to not do any work for their employer

They aren't taking advantage of that by not working, they are doing as instructed and legally required. 

The idea that it was a holiday must only be genuinely held by those who are retired and/or financially secure enough that they probably could be. For the millions on furlough who live pay cheque to pay cheque to pay rent/mortgages, feed their kids etc. Im sure a holiday was the last thing they thought it was. 

As you said above, my experience is that everyone who was on furlough was thrilled to be back in work even when it was only part time furlough/part time working. They’ve all spent six months worrying about their jobs. They’ve seen reports that it might be 2024 before the economy and number of jobs are back to pre-covid levels and that was before the new restrictions came in. Those who have been on furlough could be part of millions losing their jobs and relying on benefits for half a decade. But yeah, “a bit like free beer.”

Edited by Aggy

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4 minutes ago, Aggy said:

The idea that it was a holiday must only be genuinely held by those who are retired and/or financially secure enough that they probably could be. For the millions on furlough who live pay cheque to pay cheque to pay rent/mortgages, feed their kids etc. Im sure a holiday was the last thing they thought it was. 

As you said above, my experience is that everyone who was on furlough was thrilled to be back in work even when it was only part time furlough/part time working. They’ve all spent six months worrying about their jobs. They’ve seen reports that it might be 2024 before the economy and number of jobs are back to pre-covid levels and that was before the new restrictions came in. Those who have been on furlough could be part of millions losing their jobs and relying on benefits for half a decade. But yeah, “a bit like free beer.”

Yeah, was a mixed bag for me, half of the furloughed I knew spent the whole time being stressed out and worried about whether they'd be allowed back.

The other half loved sunbathing for months. 

I'd hazard a guess that the first lot are the ones who do sensible things like put money in their pension and not putting their Ibiza holiday on a credit card. 

I was grateful to just have a job throughout, I consider myself very fortunate. 

Edited by TeemuVanBasten
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1 hour ago, Aggy said:

The idea that it was a holiday must only be genuinely held by those who are retired and/or financially secure enough that they probably could be. For the millions on furlough who live pay cheque to pay cheque to pay rent/mortgages, feed their kids etc. Im sure a holiday was the last thing they thought it was. 

As you said above, my experience is that everyone who was on furlough was thrilled to be back in work even when it was only part time furlough/part time working. They’ve all spent six months worrying about their jobs. They’ve seen reports that it might be 2024 before the economy and number of jobs are back to pre-covid levels and that was before the new restrictions came in. Those who have been on furlough could be part of millions losing their jobs and relying on benefits for half a decade. But yeah, “a bit like free beer.”

Whatever you want to think Aggy. We didn't furlough anybody but many of our suppliers (enginering) did. Then they came in morning / evening shifts and are all now back normally as far as I can tell. No jobs lost.

I think this is currently true for the majority of those furloughed.

Yes, for some their jobs may now be permanently lost as opposed to a short term measure across the worst of the lockdown. I actually have far more sympathy for those self employed as ltd. Companies who got no support or furlough whatsoever.

 

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1 hour ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Yeah, was a mixed bag for me, half of the furloughed I knew spent the whole time being stressed out and worried about whether they'd be allowed back.

The other half loved sunbathing for months. 

I'd hazard a guess that the first lot are the ones who do sensible things like put money in their pension and not putting their Ibiza holiday on a credit card. 

I was grateful to just have a job throughout, I consider myself very fortunate. 

Yeah, thankfully, not too many of my closest friends or family were on furlough so I’ve only got a fairly limited pool to base my direct experiences on. Those I do know did of course enjoy the good weather - I’m not sure what else they could have done given they weren’t allowed to work - but all were very eager to get back and would much rather have been working.

My partner’s company made large scale redundancies/firings before the furlough package was announced, some (but not all) were re-hired purely to go on furlough and they are all (with very limited exception) still on furlough now. Highly likely they’ll be let go in a couple of weeks when the furlough scheme properly ends - a company with multiple offices in Scotland and England probably going to be down about 30-40 per cent on headcount from before covid. Back office and admin basically all gone and plenty of the main workers as well. My partner was one who was kept on throughout and I’m sure plenty of those on furlough would have preferred to be in her position.

One of the younger lads where I am and who works closely with me had a new born child and used the furlough basically as extended parental leave - loved the time with his kid and made the most of a bad situation - but he’s desperate to get back to 100 per cent work (currently still only doing three days). New kid, he needs a job!

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Image

Seems to be starting to level off a bit. Scare tactics and the public taking sensible actions cutting the rate of increase markedly.

Whitty's projections certainly look fanciful on the evidence so far.

Still plenty of time though.

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3 hours ago, ricardo said:

Image

Seems to be starting to level off a bit. Scare tactics and the public taking sensible actions cutting the rate of increase markedly.

Whitty's projections certainly look fanciful on the evidence so far.

Still plenty of time though.

the worry is that the virus doesn't magically just "go away" when Valances mid October chart finishes.

We are currently around 5 or 6 doubling periods of deaths away from where we were in April but with less tools in the box.

Looks like we may have got the doubling time down from 7 days to more like 20 days, even so, at that rate, in 100 to 120 days, we will be back to 1k a day dead unless we can slow the spread down further. This puts us nicely at Christmas... how pleasant!

If winter takes its toll and it spreads even quicker, we will be there sooner. Supposedly the max doubling rate of Covid based on normal societal functionality is 4 days per doubling, we hit 7 days earlier this month.

There is talk that Manaus was so badly hit, they naturally achieved a form of herd immunity starting in June and naturally, cases dropped off. In the last couple of weeks or so, they have had a bit of a resurgence which suggests reinfections so it will be interesting to see how that works out for them... if their 2nd wave is a bit pathetic then it will give us all hope that this damned curse from the heavens/some dodgy Chinese butchers (whichever you believe) will be over soon. Let's just hope a vaccine arrives soon and can be safely and effectively administered to enough of us!

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Talk of two week 'circuit breakers' are in the press (closures of pubs, restaurants etc plus no indoor mixing of households). Might be applied across regions rather than nationally.

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12 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Talk of two week 'circuit breakers' are in the press (closures of pubs, restaurants etc plus no indoor mixing of households). Might be applied across regions rather than nationally.

 The indoor mixing more likely to be the next change (if any) I’d have thought. The stats suggesting spread in pubs and restaurants is fairly small and household spread is the main issue. Probably because the pubs and restaurants are, in the large, governing it themselves quite well, whereas much harder to stop people meeting in homes.

Over where you are has had no social mixing in houses completely for a while hasn’t it?

One thing nobody really picked up on on here was Boris’ mention of the army in his speech/ramble last week. Highly doubt he’ll have soldiers knocking on people,S doors asking your mum to go home, but that sort of “threat” suggests they know it’s household spread that’s the issue. 

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The latest Public Health England (PHE) report shows roughly 5 per cent of cases identified through test and trace have been linked to outbreaks in pubs, Prof Bauld said.” 

Prof Griffin agreed, but says he fears the 10pm curfew in England doesn’t address the real issue behind the growing case numbers, as it does not stop people from meeting outdoors, travelling with other households in cars, or meeting in houses.

He made the distinction between the Rule of Six, which limits the number of people who are able to meet, and the importance of limiting the numbers of households allowed to mix indoors or outside, which has been restricted in Scotland and Wales, and which he said is the most important factor.

“If you think of the train of onward transmission between six people from different households meeting and then going on to meet six other people each, that’s far harder to keep control over than two or three households meeting up.”

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Aggy said:

 The indoor mixing more likely to be the next change (if any) I’d have thought. The stats suggesting spread in pubs and restaurants is fairly small and household spread is the main issue. Probably because the pubs and restaurants are, in the large, governing it themselves quite well, whereas much harder to stop people meeting in homes.

Over where you are has had no social mixing in houses completely for a while hasn’t it?

One thing nobody really picked up on on here was Boris’ mention of the army in his speech/ramble last week. Highly doubt he’ll have soldiers knocking on people,S doors asking your mum to go home, but that sort of “threat” suggests they know it’s household spread that’s the issue. 

Quite right about pubs as vectors. They have been making bio-secure arrangements in my area for sure, likewise restaurants. And I agreed with a fella on the news the other night that the hospitality industry has been unfairly targeted given the percentage of cases reportedly deriving from the sector. The 10pm lockdown though has created other behavioural problems (York, Leeds and North East...perhaps London too....I've read  about) where folk have all been asked to leave at 10pm so you just get drinks taken outdoors and continued in a kind of street party. A bit like a football crowd.

Yes, here in Yorkshire we have had no mixing for what seems like months. It is variable in its effect, with some households just ignoring it or getting round it. My wife hasn't seen her mum for a long while as she is strictly not her "support bubble" as there are 2 other sisters living closer though you could argue she is very important. We have been following what is asked. I'm less convinced that maybe 30% of people haven't. I believe it's because people just don't understand rather than a willfulness. As for folk drinking and partying in the street, I'm also of the view they know exactly what they're doing but drink blinds common sense or responsibility (it always has).

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13 minutes ago, sonyc said:

The 10pm lockdown though has created other behavioural problems (York, Leeds and North East...perhaps London too....I've read  about) where folk have all been asked to leave at 10pm so you just get drinks taken outdoors and continued in a kind of street party.

Yes, here in Yorkshire we have had no mixing for what seems like months. It is variable in its effect, with some households just ignoring it or getting round it. My wife hasn't seen her mum for a long while as she is strictly not her "support bubble" as there are 2 other sisters living closer though you could argue she is very important. We have been following what is asked. I'm less convinced that maybe 30% of people haven't. I believe it's because people just don't understand rather than a willfulness. As for folk drinking and partying in the street, I'm also of the view they know exactly what they're doing but drink blinds common sense or responsibility (it always has).

Street parties and, I would imagine, taking it back to become a house party where social distancing isn’t as monitored as it would be in the pub itself and it isn’t even outdoors on the street which would help compared to being all cramped into a kitchen or lounge. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the curfew causes more problems than it solves. 

I think there’s a fairly large degree of wilfulness and also people knowing that it’s pretty hard to police. Okay, maybe a 100 person house party with loud music like we’ve seen in some places will get found out, but a nice civilised middle aged dinner party in a quiet suburb or rural village somewhere? Or a low key kids birthday party with grandparents, cousins and a few family friends? I think there’s probably also a feeling that it’s other people who cause the problems - students, foreigners with different living arrangements than your usual middle class “English” family, young people etc. so it’s “okay for me” to break the rules because others are the problem. 

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11 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Street parties and, I would imagine, taking it back to become a house party where social distancing isn’t as monitored as it would be in the pub itself and it isn’t even outdoors on the street which would help compared to being all cramped into a kitchen or lounge. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the curfew causes more problems than it solves. 

I think there’s a fairly large degree of wilfulness and also people knowing that it’s pretty hard to police. Okay, maybe a 100 person house party with loud music like we’ve seen in some places will get found out, but a nice civilised middle aged dinner party in a quiet suburb or rural village somewhere? Or a low key kids birthday party with grandparents, cousins and a few family friends? I think there’s probably also a feeling that it’s other people who cause the problems - students, foreigners with different living arrangements than your usual middle class “English” family, young people etc. so it’s “okay for me” to break the rules because others are the problem. 

I believe it was predicted that universities re-opening this September were always going to be a risk. But would do you do? Simply that courses should go online?

It's their future mixing with households that is the concern.

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59 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I think there’s a fairly large degree of wilfulness and also people knowing that it’s pretty hard to police. Okay, maybe a 100 person house party with loud music like we’ve seen in some places will get found out, but a nice civilised middle aged dinner party in a quiet suburb or rural village somewhere? Or a low key kids birthday party with grandparents, cousins and a few family friends? I think there’s probably also a feeling that it’s other people who cause the problems - students, foreigners with different living arrangements than your usual middle class “English” family, young people etc. so it’s “okay for me” to break the rules because others are the problem. 

Quite right Aggy - I can look at my own 'extended' family and in the less enlightened parts (Suffolk) there seems always 'it won't be us' attitude in a gentle way middle class way.

Not quite so sure on the 'house party' syndrome - I suspect the 10pm is purely a political fig-leaf contrivance - but the group that would go back for a private party will do so at 11pm as well with the clubs closed - so it probably still helps a little for the majority.

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Hi everyone

On a different thread we have found the NY Times to be spot on with their reporting about 99% of the time. They have told us things months before they happened and have a lot of journalists ‘ on the inside ‘. I thought I would share an article with you that they have printed today, about Boris and Sage, how minutes are slightly reworded and how some scientists  believe Boris is going to pile all the blame on the scientists of SAGE even though he allegedly ignored the advice he didn’t want to hear. The face coverings way back is an interesting one, with the claim that the U.K. government are to blame for U.K. citizens being anti face coverings. Also I didn’t realise this new body replaces scientists with their own picks. I found it interesting so hope you do to.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/sage-britain-coronavirus-ferguson.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20200928&instance_id=22585&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=141174537&section=topNews&segment_id=39204&te=1&user_id=974bdc9414d93873197a0e53bd27f7aa

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there is no requirement to wear masks in the HoC bars which are exempt from the 10pm curfew. They do not have to wear masks when they go shake their members, or somebody else's, in the lavatory. Whilst they will continue to quaff and slurp subsidised beer and spirits next year, we all will have to pay at least 3% more for stuff, cause the EU did it, theEU are at fault for us leaving, off course, (sarcastic).

This virus is a godsend to bumbling public schoolboys deprived of much love, such as Johnson, and parliament seems unable to stop his zeal to turn himself into lying toad dictator.

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Not quite so sure on the 'house party' syndrome - I suspect the 10pm is purely a political fig-leaf contrivance - but the group that would go back for a private party will do so at 11pm as well with the clubs closed - so it probably still helps a little for the majority.

Listening to Andy Burnham this morning, for whom I have a great deal of respect, suggesting off licences and shops should be stopped from selling booze at 21.00 to prevent people pouring out of pubs and continuing the party. I really am not sure about the effececy of this 22.00 kick out policy but hope it is based on some evidence. Seems to be a policy adopted in some European countries as well.

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48 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Listening to Andy Burnham this morning, for whom I have a great deal of respect, suggesting off licences and shops should be stopped from selling booze at 21.00 to prevent people pouring out of pubs and continuing the party. I really am not sure about the effececy of this 22.00 kick out policy but hope it is based on some evidence. Seems to be a policy adopted in some European countries as well.

I am unsure how a 10pm pub closure policy might be based on evidence to be honest. I think it was simply an attempt to keep the night economy going but also trying to be seen to do something.

Interesting to hear the scientist from Belgium talk of no closing times in Belgium.  Yet their rates have increased too so it may change.

I think behaviour in a few countries in Europe is different around public drinking on the whole.

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People want an ecidence based approach to lockdowns but what does this mean really?  There is no real evidence of how infection rates are different between 10pm closing and  normal opening hours because the experiment had not been conducted until now.  

What we have instead is the best analysis that can be done in the circumstances.   Yes, it's a compromise but isnt everything we do on this now?

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4 hours ago, sonyc said:

I believe it was predicted that universities re-opening this September were always going to be a risk. But would do you do? Simply that courses should go online?

It's their future mixing with households that is the concern.

I wonder if universities re-opening was more about collecting accommodation fees than anything else.

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16 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

People want an ecidence based approach to lockdowns but what does this mean really?  There is no real evidence of how infection rates are different between 10pm closing and  normal opening hours because the experiment had not been conducted until now.  

What we have instead is the best analysis that can be done in the circumstances.   Yes, it's a compromise but isnt everything we do on this now?

There is data picked up by track and trace, I’m not sure how much proper analysis of it takes place but it is often mentioned by Ministers in an apparent justification for a certain measure, I have my doubts about the validity.

 

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30 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

People want an ecidence based approach to lockdowns but what does this mean really?  There is no real evidence of how infection rates are different between 10pm closing and  normal opening hours because the experiment had not been conducted until now.  

What we have instead is the best analysis that can be done in the circumstances.   Yes, it's a compromise but isnt everything we do on this now?

Even if there isn’t any hard evidence because the experiment hasn’t been conducted yet, what is the logic? Whilst I can’t be entirely sure with this government, I presume they didn’t just sit in a cabinet meeting with a whiteboard shouting out random thoughts and “close pubs at 10” was the only one they could come up with.

Part of the problem, imo, is that we don’t know what evidence and analysis is being used to guide the government or what their logic is. I’ve seen loads of people online with comments such as “ah yes, because covid obviously only comes out after 10pm” .  There hasn’t really (that I’m aware of) been any counter-comment from the government. 

Why do they think closing at 10 helps? What do they think the stats are going to show? How many infections might be avoided by closing a couple of hours earlier? What are people going to do after early kick out? We’ve got highly sophisticated modelling systems that can apparently predict all sorts of things - what did the results show when they closed pubs at 10 pm on their modelling systems? What compromise have they made - what gets to stay open because the pubs close earlier? Burnham and north west politicians have gone so far today as to say the 10pm curfew undermines local restrictions currently in the north west. So did the government take those into account?

If they haven’t got answers to all of that, then why should they expect people to listen to them? And if they have got answers to all of that, what’s the harm in making it public so people know, respect the logic - I think that would lead to more compliance. 

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2 hours ago, sonyc said:

I am unsure how a 10pm pub closure policy might be based on evidence to be honest. I think it was simply an attempt to keep the night economy going but also trying to be seen to do something.

Interesting to hear the scientist from Belgium talk of no closing times in Belgium.  Yet their rates have increased too so it may change.

I think behaviour in a few countries in Europe is different around public drinking on the whole.

From what I heard / gathered there was some belief that people generally got more drunk (or lose inhibitions / restraint) the longer the night wore on - I guess they start at much the same time anyway - so curtailing the latest hour or so might help keep a remnant of social distancing intact.

However - seeing the images in London and elsewhere its pretty obvious that this crowd aren't responsible enough to be sensible so I expect in due course a total local shutdown of such premises should CV-19 spread - a fairly sure bet. It was a govt. compromise that's being abused.

Perhaps in other countries there is different drinking culture and people are generally more sensible?

Edited by Yellow Fever

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