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5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I am exactly of the opposite opinion. People who think they might have it are obviously anxious to have a test therefore the testing percentage probably overstates the real position.

Being devils advocate Ricardo I really suspect many who are working and think they 'may' have it the very last thing they will want is a formal test and enforced isolation. Many won't take it 'just in case' and self manage ! It works all ways.

  

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16 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Agree with this Aggy 🙂. They do show trends but with all sorts of caveats.

The ONS go back a long way now but are always a week or 'so old' when released but 150,000 now (ws 50K I recall early days)  truly randomly selected tests across the country (and a 20 year long term follow up) . It's these numbers that cause the real anxiety in govt and scientists.

The Zoe  study is the best measure for me, now showing nearly 13000 cases a day

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1 minute ago, Van wink said:

6178 today

Yes - I suspect Whitty & Valance knew already what was coming. It's also true that the next week or two are already home and hosed  - in the bag - as far as Covid is concerned!

How many lives does Johnson have ?

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1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes - I suspect Whitty & Valance knew already what was coming. It's also true that the next week or two are already home and hosed  - in the bag - as far as Covid is concerned!

How many lives does Johnson have ?

Definitely.

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3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Definitely.

This is the issue - even if the latest restrictions are effective it may take 2 weeks to really show.

Taking Zoe - 13000 x 2 x 2 = 50,000 ish. That getting up towards the numbers estimated last March!

Edited by Yellow Fever

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Positives climb a little over 2.8% of tests

Latest UK Numbers 

6178 - 37

Inpatients  1469  up 150 since yesterday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1392 - 14

France 10008 - 78

Spain  10779 - 241

Germany  1625 -10

Spanish and French fluctuating wildly

German and Italian very steady

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12 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Being devils advocate Ricardo I really suspect many who are working and think they 'may' have it the very last thing they will want is a formal test and enforced isolation. Many won't take it 'just in case' and self manage ! It works all ways.

  

Possibly but not something any sensible person should do. If you have it any delay could prove fatal.

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Just now, ricardo said:

Possibly but not something any sensible person should do. If you have it any delay could prove fatal.

Yes  - but lots have it mildly or even asymptomatically. If you were a tradesman who only gets paid when you work you might think twice about a test 'on the off chance' if you felt you more likely had a mild cold or similar - perhaps an acquaintance of somebody who did have it - let's wait and see. It's just human nature. You can see it on here all the time.

Two weeks no pay and a lot of inconvenience (even fines) is a great persuader you don't have it!

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10 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Positives climb a little over 2.8% of tests

Latest UK Numbers 

6178 - 37

Inpatients  1469  up 150 since yesterday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1392 - 14

France 10008 - 78

Spain  10779 - 241

Germany  1625 -10

Spanish and French fluctuating wildly

German and Italian very steady

Ignoring the positives and noise - the 'in-patients' now seem to be climbing quite quickly - 10% a day ? Is it now breaking back into the elderly again?. 

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Which is why you need a “ if you test positive, the Government will pay you four weeks income”  program. You will never fix this problem without secure personal economies, and you will never fix the overall economy without mitigating the viral spread. So Treasury and Health - plans please for wage compensation and T3 (Test, Track, Trace) ? If no plans, please resign and let someone else do your job instead. 

Edited by Surfer

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17 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Ignoring the positives and noise - the 'in-patients' now seem to be climbing quite quickly - 10% a day ? Is it now breaking back into the elderly again?. 

It’s getting into the vulnerable groups which was inevitable, it will circulate amongst the younger age groups for a few generations of virus and then start getting into more vulnerable groups, it’s the same pattern as research showed in the States. 
Have a look at the ons graph showing infection by ethnicity, and think about vulnerable groups, a massive problem.

image.thumb.png.6b7ff867478dc7ac0d4480d96c459b14.png

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26 minutes ago, Surfer said:

Which is why you need a “ if you test positive, the Government will pay you four weeks income”  program. You will never fix this problem without secure personal economies, and you will never fix the overall economy without mitigating the viral spread. So Treasury and Health - plans please for wage compensation and T3 (Test, Track, Trace) ? If no plans, please resign and let someone else do your job instead. 

Exactly - Many people I'm sure can't afford to test positive (or to be isolated - Even one Dom Cummings if I recall)! 

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42 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes  - but lots have it mildly or even asymptomatically. If you were a tradesman who only gets paid when you work you might think twice about a test 'on the off chance' if you felt you more likely had a mild cold or similar - perhaps an acquaintance of somebody who did have it - let's wait and see. It's just human nature. You can see it on here all the time.

Two weeks no pay and a lot of inconvenience (even fines) is a great persuader you don't have it!

I absolutely agree with this.

I also wonder whether some of the T&T issues are that people give false names/phone numbers when going into a pub for exactly the same reason. I certainly wouldn't want to have to self-isolate because somebody else in the pub, who may not have even been in the same room as me, has had a positive test 5 days later.

That might sound harsh and is certainly counter-productive in stopping the spread of the virus but I strongly believe lots of it is going on.

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32 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It’s getting into the vulnerable groups which was inevitable, it will circulate amongst the younger age groups for a few generations of virus and then start getting into more vulnerable groups, it’s the same pattern as research showed in the States. 
Have a look at the ons graph showing infection by ethnicity, and think about vulnerable groups, a massive problem.

image.thumb.png.6b7ff867478dc7ac0d4480d96c459b14.png

Careful, Van Winkerton, you'll get labelled a racist by the usual suspects for posting factual information...

They played that card on me way back on pg 343 >

 

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2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

I absolutely agree with this.

I also wonder whether some of the T&T issues are that people give false names/phone numbers when going into a pub for exactly the same reason. I certainly wouldn't want to have to self-isolate because somebody else in the pub, who may not have even been in the same room as me, has had a positive test 5 days later.

That might sound harsh and is certainly counter-productive in stopping the spread of the virus but I strongly believe lots of it is going on.

Thanks Mark.

I'd even go a bit further. I suspect people can broadly be divided into two categories. Those that are busy working, families possibly with children at school and generally not vulnerable. For this group the prospect of having a positive test or even preventative quarantine is very unwelcome and best avoided if at all possible. It causes chaos in otherwise busy lives. Yes I'm sure most will obey the rules but won't go out of their way to get a test unless essential or unavoidable.

Then we have the more vulnerable group, largely more elderly. For this group any sign of Covid will be an existential threat and an early test and diagnosis welcome. They may also be less generally busy yet financially secure. Quarantine is less troublesome.

Given that Covid is currently believed to be more prevalent in the 1st younger set I might suspect many with symptoms are not readily coming forward.

 

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It looks like Scotland's spike is mainly to do with the return of students. Rather expected to be fair. 

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39 minutes ago, Herman said:

It looks like Scotland's spike is mainly to do with the return of students. Rather expected to be fair. 

Indeed. The worry is that they finish their autumn term and go home for Christmas taking the virus with them into their home towns. I read that one university might be considering not allowing students home (asking them) because of the worry!

I'm expecting Sunak to come up with some decent measures in the meantime...just seen his photo opp outside number 11 (with Frances Grady). Sunak speaks clearly and appears to have some depth as well as  intelligence in his broader responses to questions asked of him. One of the highlights of this lamentable government. If they had any sense they would ditch Johnson. I'm hopeful the measures will re-assure lots of businesses and employees in the coming months.

The numbers with the virus feel like they're increasing faster than the doubling every 7 days. Locally for example we have seen over a 40% increase in 24 hours alone (Zoe app source).

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On 22/09/2020 at 23:31, Terminally Yellow said:

Sorry if you thought I was having a go; I really wasn't! I was responding to sarcasm with sarcasm 🙂 All good in the hood my friend.

No, I didn't...I was worried you may have thought I was being personally sarcastic! No problem.

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At least there is some recognition that there has to be immediate action should a case occur.

7 schools in Cornwall have several cases and are sending whole years home.

Unfortunately a large bacon factory i still operating, even though it had 88 cases in two days. The excuse being, its among the eastern europeans who live ten to a house so it will be contained because all they do is work and sleep.

Whatever the result, while the numbers are low in comparison, the hospital admissions are rising. Many of the popular areas of Cornwall are still jam full.

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It was refreshing to hear a grown up, with a level of honesty, from the despatch box. There will be people that miss out again but a lot that will benefit but it is not an easy task for Rishi. 

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Article behind paywall in Telegraph suggesting CV has mutated in the states to become more infectious and “ find its way around hand washing and facemasks” now I know this is a sneaky little **** but sounds like it might have an IQ higher than Trumps, which isnt a huge leap for a virus but still, a little sceptical on this one, but will have to see.

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35 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Article behind paywall in Telegraph suggesting CV has mutated in the states to become more infectious and “ find its way around hand washing and facemasks” now I know this is a sneaky little **** but sounds like it might have an IQ higher than Trumps, which isnt a huge leap for a virus but still, a little sceptical on this one, but will have to see.

Interesting although I suspect some people think face masks stop the virus, whereas all they actually do is reduce the level of transmission.  On TV from the US you often see people wearing face masks but in close proximity as if they think the face masks will stop them getting infected, when all they do is cut down on the transmission, so if you're close by someone with it, you can still catch it.

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"Interesting although I suspect some people think face masks stop the virus, whereas all they actually do is reduce the level of transmission.  On TV from the US you often see people wearing face masks but in close proximity as if they think the face masks will stop them getting infected, when all they do is cut down on the transmission, so if you're close by someone with it, you can still catch it."

 

It depends upon the size of the droplet apparently.

 

I use the word "apparently" as there are conflicting views on this constantly  put forward.

Very small droplets (aerosol?) may get through BUT then a small exposure to these does not give you the virus,  or does not make you an extreme case, apparently.

The following is interesting:

"There is a social stigma attached to not wearing a mask in South Korea.

The offender is not only reprimanded for not respecting the citizenship rights of others, but also as an uncultured person."

Perhaps that should become the norm here because, as you point out, mask wearing does reduce the level of transmission. 

Edited by BroadstairsR

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56 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Interesting although I suspect some people think face masks stop the virus, whereas all they actually do is reduce the level of transmission.  On TV from the US you often see people wearing face masks but in close proximity as if they think the face masks will stop them getting infected, when all they do is cut down on the transmission, so if you're close by someone with it, you can still catch it.

Absolutely, the face coverings we are encouraged to wear are about reducing spread rather than self protection. There are of course others that have a personal protective function.

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23 hours ago, Van wink said:

The Zoe  study is the best measure for me, now showing nearly 13000 cases a day

Over 16000 today

image.thumb.png.bb0e35e93943578ec764eb5cb39f4508.png

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