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It was a really weird address to the country including the following near the start of his speech...

"The iron laws of geometrical progression are shouting at us..."

 

I do love a simple message.

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10 minutes ago, sonyc said:

It was a really weird address to the country including the following near the start of his speech...

"The iron laws of geometrical progression are shouting at us..."

 

I do love a simple message.

I think the simple message that he was desperately trying to sell was that none of this was his fault and in that, as in pretty much everything else he's attempted this year, he failed dismally.

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22 minutes ago, sonyc said:

It was a really weird address to the country including the following near the start of his speech...

"The iron laws of geometrical progression are shouting at us..."

 

I do love a simple message.

I’m not sure if anyone writes his speeches or if they just give him a general topic and a list of random phrases they bet him he can’t shoehorn into a sentence. 
 

By far the worst though was “this stuff”. The Prime Minister of the UK in a national TV broadcast during the biggest pandemic of the century, talking about some “stuff”. 

Edited by Aggy

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6 hours ago, Aggy said:

No need for making it simpler. It’s what I’ve been saying to you all morning. Glad we now agree!

So deluded, but if that keeps you happy so be it. We certainly don't agree and the fact that you might think that demonstrates your lack of understanding. I understand the statistics you don't . The NHS accept these stats, the government accept these stats but you don't (perhaps you might think about that).

Edited by horsefly
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57 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I think the simple message that he was desperately trying to sell was that none of this was his fault and in that, as in pretty much everything else he's attempted this year, he failed dismally.

It was so odd....a bit like someone trying to reclaim a part of himself ...attempting to find his usual swagger.

But ....in the context of a message to the nation which really needed to be so concise and clear and I think it fell someway short.

It was different in its tone to some of his previous addresses .....impressionist like an artist. As I said 'weird'.

I think he must desperately hope this thing doesn't grow exponentially (like we all do) but especially because I believe his political capital within his own party might be near running out.

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1 hour ago, Aggy said:

I’m not sure if anyone writes his speeches or if they just give him a general topic and a list of random phrases they bet him he can’t shoehorn into a sentence. 
 

By far the worst though was “this stuff”. The Prime Minister of the UK in a national TV broadcast during the biggest pandemic of the century, talking about some “stuff”. 

Well Crace might well agree with you....here's his take on it all:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/22/its-boristime-v-coronatime-and-theres-only-ever-one-winner?

 

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12 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Blame the public, blame Labour and blame bad luck. It is not his fault. I hope he remembers to take his sincerity pill.

I'm not sure if I've missed the sarcasm in this - but if it's sincere I'm sorry, it's absolutely Boris Johnson's fault.

I wholeheartedly acknowledge that Brexit is the reason we have Boris Johnson as PM, and that the public, labour and bad luck all have played their parts in that little omnishambles. But allowing Boris a literal get out of jail card for being elected to deliver Brexit and not this is just wrong.

The list of failings managed by this government during this crisis is massive. Lockdown was brought in far, far too late. The Cheltenham festival and Liverpool v Madrid matches taking place were absolute jokes of decisions. There's plenty of scientific evidence which suggests even a week or two earlier would have saved thousands of lives.

Then we have PPE. Hundreds of thousands of units of PPE purchased which were found absolutely useless. Care homes, hospices, ambulance trusts and others crying out for it for weeks on end. 

Test and trace. Good grief, these words should follow this government around as a new by word for utter failure. It's the one thing that can really help us right now, the ONE thing this government should be obliged to get right above almost everything else (2nd only to funding and supporting the NHS, IMO). I heard a story from a Dad on Radio 5 Live of his frustrations trying to get a test for his young son. He's based in London. The test he was offered was in Aberdeen. Scandalous. 

Then there's 3 million self employed people entirely overlooked for financial assistance, masks - went from no, don't wear them, to advise maybe you should when you can't socially distance to now yes wear them everywhere indoors - and now this latest set of measures which will pretty much ruin anyone in the night time economy. I'm not sure what good stopping people going out after 10 is going to do for anyone. 

Bit of a rant this, even for me. Apologies everyone.

Edited by Terminally Yellow
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I wonder what the Spanish PM is saying now.  241 deaths recorded in one day and nearly 11,000 recorded infections. 

We are going either there or into full lockdown where we are going if we don't start taking better care again.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Terminally Yellow said:

I'm not sure if I've missed the sarcasm in this - but if it's sincere I'm sorry, it's absolutely Boris Johnson's fault.

I wholeheartedly acknowledge that Brexit is the reason we have Boris Johnson as PM, and that the public, labour and bad luck all have played their parts in that little omnishambles. But allowing Boris a literal get out of jail card for being elected to deliver Brexit and not this is just wrong.

The list of failings managed by this government during this crisis is massive. Lockdown was brought in far, far too late. The Cheltenham festival and Liverpool v Madrid matches taking place were absolute jokes of decisions. There's plenty of scientific evidence which suggests even a week or two earlier would have saved thousands of lives.

Then we have PPE. Hundreds of thousands of units of PPE purchased which were found absolutely useless. Care homes, hospices, ambulance trusts and others crying out for it for weeks on end. 

Test and trace. Good grief, these words should follow this government around as a new by word for utter failure. It's the one thing that can really help us right now, the ONE thing this government should be obliged to get right above almost everything else (2nd only to funding and supporting the NHS, IMO). I heard a story from a Dad on Radio 5 Live of his frustrations trying to get a test for his young son. He's based in London. The test he was offered was in Aberdeen. Scandalous. 

Then there's 3 million self employed people entirely overlooked for financial advice and assistance, masks - went from no, don't wear them, to advise maybe you should when you can't socially distance to now yes wear them everywhere indoors - and now this latest set of measures which will pretty much ruin anyone in the night time economy. I'm not sure what good stopping people going out after 10 is going to do to anyone. 

Bit of a rant this, even for me. Apologies everyone.

Fairly sure KG was indeed being sarcastic,  but can’t argue with any of that!

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8 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I wonder what the Spanish PM is saying now.  241 deaths recorded in one day and nearly 11,000 recorded infections. 

We are going either there or into full lockdown where we are going if we don't start taking better care again.

 

 

We badly need T & T to really work BB. At the moment a good number are not being contacted. Decent story about how local lockdowns have not worked very well in the online Guardian talks through some of the challenges of you're interested.

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3 minutes ago, Terminally Yellow said:

Must have missed the memo.

Excuse my sarcasm TY. Trying to cheer you up a little  that's all.

Edited by sonyc

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9 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Excuse my sarcasm TY. Trying to cheer you up a little  that's all.

Sorry if you thought I was having a go; I really wasn't! I was responding to sarcasm with sarcasm 🙂 All good in the hood my friend.

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51 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I wonder what the Spanish PM is saying now.  241 deaths recorded in one day and nearly 11,000 recorded infections. 

We are going either there or into full lockdown where we are going if we don't start taking better care again.

 

 

This is entirely my worry. I really hope these new restrictions work but frankly I'm not hopeful. Too many people too relaxed or not overly concerned or it won't be them (or their extended family). When it does hit it will be 6 weeks too late.

By the way - just saw a quarter of Upper 6th form Norwich School now having to isolate. You can run but can't hide.

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12 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

This is entirely my worry. I really hope these new restrictions work but frankly I'm not hopeful. Too many people too relaxed or not overly concerned or it won't be them (or their extended family). When it does hit it will be 6 weeks too late.

By the way - just saw a quarter of Upper 6th form Norwich School now having to isolate. You can run but can't hide.

We need to realise that if we want to have liberty and to keep people alive we must be sensible, restrict ourselves and play by the rules.  If we don't the choice for government is stark, deaths or redundancies.  It was good to have a reminder today but if we need a second the gloves must come off again.

And I say this as an optimist.  I've always thought that a degree of spread is not necessarily a bad thing, that in the long run we'll fair no worse and no better than comparable countries or areas and that lockdown was never going to be a magic bullet.

 

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9 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

We need to realise that if we want to have liberty and to keep people alive we must be sensible, restrict ourselves and play by the rules.  If we don't the choice for government is stark, deaths or redundancies.  It was good to have a reminder today but if we need a second the gloves must come off again.

And I say this as an optimist.  I've always thought that a degree of spread is not necessarily a bad thing, that in the long run we'll fair no worse and no better than comparable countries or areas and that lockdown was never going to be a magic bullet.

 

Seems many think Johnson should have gone further - matched Scotland on house visiting.

I would tend to agree - Suspect this will fail and full on lock down almost inevitable later. Too little too late all over again? 

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15 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Don't think he has a clue what the point actually is, staggeringly incompetent and a complete embarassment to be British when we have a complete idiot running the country in the greatest crisis most of us have ever experienced.

the biggest crisis I have ever lived through was the Cuban nuclear missile crisis of 1962 when we were literally days away from nukeing the planet. Although I was just a kid at the time, the fear of being the end of times was much greater than what we are experiencing today. 

Edited by Rock The Boat

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12 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

We need to realise that if we want to have liberty and to keep people alive we must be sensible, restrict ourselves and play by the rules.  If we don't the choice for government is stark, deaths or redundancies.  It was good to have a reminder today but if we need a second the gloves must come off again.

And I say this as an optimist.  I've always thought that a degree of spread is not necessarily a bad thing, that in the long run we'll fair no worse and no better than comparable countries or areas and that lockdown was never going to be a magic bullet.

 

My wife's restaurant was back up to full speed thanks to the hugely successful Eat Out campaign.  Last name night with the announcement of new restrictions, they were empty. So all the good work has been undone at a stroke with people fearful to go out again. With furloughing coming to an end, if trade doesn't pick up then redundancies will sweep through the hospitality industries and these small businesses, once closed, will never open again. 

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16 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

My wife's restaurant was back up to full speed thanks to the hugely successful Eat Out campaign.  Last name night with the announcement of new restrictions, they were empty. So all the good work has been undone at a stroke with people fearful to go out again. With furloughing coming to an end, if trade doesn't pick up then redundancies will sweep through the hospitality industries and these small businesses, once closed, will never open again. 

I have sympathy with such businesses - but one could equally say all the good work (and pain) from the original lockdown was undone at a stroke by the obviously over hasty reopening - indeed active encouragement of such venues. Eat out to keep Covid going Sunak ?

For what it's worth the 10pm close seems a sensible compromise in the circumstances.

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2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Seems many think Johnson should have gone further - matched Scotland on house visiting.

I would tend to agree - Suspect this will fail and full on lock down almost inevitable later. Too little too late all over again? 

Only going one way...

Coronavirus: Scotland sees record 486 people test positive in a day

A total of 486 people have tested positive for coronavirus in Scotland in the last 24 hours, the highest number of cases recorded in a single day, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

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Coronavirus: Scotland sees record 486 people test positive in a day

A total of 486 people have tested positive for coronavirus in Scotland in the last 24 hours, the highest number of cases recorded in a single day, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

Hospital admissions and deaths will be sadly be following but it seems many will only take this seriously again when they see that happening. 

Edited by Van wink

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26 minutes ago, Van wink said:

 

Coronavirus: Scotland sees record 486 people test positive in a day

A total of 486 people have tested positive for coronavirus in Scotland in the last 24 hours, the highest number of cases recorded in a single day, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

Hospital admissions and deaths will be sadly be following but it seems many will only take this seriously again when they see that happening. 

I think they only do about 6k tests per day so thats a big percentage of positives if true.

Just checked and its 14 k so about three and a half percent.

Edited by ricardo
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45 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I think they only do about 6k tests per day so thats a big percentage of positives if true.

Just checked and its 14 k so about three and a half percent.

I'm really very dubious statistically about reading too much into these testing positive (or negative) percentages.

Presently we have the situation which will only get worse where every snivel at school / university / workplace requires a Covid test for the child/student/adult to return. My guess is that a very large number of tests are being done on or by many such people 'to be sure' expecting a negative result. It's a biased self selecting sample at present often to prove a negative.

The ONS true random sampling I think is far more a useful figure but doesn't have the media immediacy of the daily fluctuating figures. 

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Don’t know if it’s good or worse YF but today’s % in Scotland was 7.8% according to Sturgeon.

"Nevertheless, today's number represents 7.8% of people newly tested. That is obviously a real cause for concern, but it also underlines why we took very decisive and very tough action yesterday."

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm really very dubious statistically about reading too much into these testing positive (or negative) percentages.

Presently we have the situation which will only get worse where every snivel at school / university / workplace requires a Covid test for the child/student/adult to return. My guess is that a very large number of tests are being done on or by many such people 'to be sure' expecting a negative result. It's a biased self selecting sample at present often to prove a negative.

The ONS true random sampling I think is far more a useful figure but doesn't have the media immediacy of the daily fluctuating figures. 

I’m not sure any of the stats on testing are particularly definitive for comparisons or analysing “trends” really.

As you point out for quite a while now anyone could and probably have been going to get tested so the percentages go down. If as a result of this current shortage of tests we start to reserve tests for front line workers and hospital admissions, the percentages will likely shoot up. The number of infections themselves is pretty useless without taking into account testing capacity - if the number of infections drops next week, is it because people aren’t getting infected or because they can’t be bothered to drive 300 miles to get the only test left in the country? And then we don’t truly know how many infections there were in March so it’s difficult to benchmark now against then based on number of infections.

Haven’t seen the ONS random sampling before. When did they start / how far back does their data go?

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I’m not sure any of the stats on testing are particularly definitive for comparisons or analysing “trends” really.

As you point out for quite a while now anyone could and probably have been going to get tested so the percentages go down. If as a result of this current shortage of tests we start to reserve tests for front line workers and hospital admissions, the percentages will likely shoot up. The number of infections themselves is pretty useless without taking into account testing capacity - if the number of infections drops next week, is it because people aren’t getting infected or because they can’t be bothered to drive 300 miles to get the only test left in the country? And then we don’t truly know how many infections there were in March so it’s difficult to benchmark now against then based on number of infections.

Haven’t seen the ONS random sampling before. When did they start / how far back does their data go?

 

 

 

Agree with this Aggy 🙂. They do show trends but with all sorts of caveats.

The ONS go back a long way now but are always a week or 'so old' when released but 150,000 now (ws 50K I recall early days)  truly randomly selected tests across the country (and a 20 year long term follow up) . It's these numbers that cause the real anxiety in govt and scientists.

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm really very dubious statistically about reading too much into these testing positive (or negative) percentages.

Presently we have the situation which will only get worse where every snivel at school / university / workplace requires a Covid test for the child/student/adult to return. My guess is that a very large number of tests are being done on or by many such people 'to be sure' expecting a negative result. It's a biased self selecting sample at present often to prove a negative.

The ONS true random sampling I think is far more a useful figure but doesn't have the media immediacy of the daily fluctuating figures. 

I am exactly of the opposite opinion. People who think they might have it are obviously anxious to have a test therefore the testing percentage probably overstates the real position.

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