Corona Virus main thread

[Barbe bleu 812]

1 minute ago, Aggy said:

As two examples to follow on from that:

1. A man has terminal cancer and is given three weeks to live. The next day the man is in a car crash and dies from his injuries. Cause of death is the injuries from the crash. But it is inaccurate to say he was not expected to die from anything else. He was expected to die from cancer within three weeks.

2. An 85 year old man has multiple illnesses and doctors think that one of them will cause his organs to stop working within the next four weeks. He has caught covid and dies after only two weeks. Covid could have been the thing that stopped his organs from working. But it isn’t true to say he wasn’t expected to die from anything else. He was expected to die from something else within four weeks.

what he said

[horsefly 4,282]

2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

   Eg Man has a heart attack and is admitted whilst there they have a positve test and dies of heart failure 7 days later.  

I was musing on the significance of events like this that get recorded. I dont suppose we have enough data to really analyse this so bk matter.

 

I see your point now. Certainly the statistics in the chart we are considering do not deal with such cases

[Aggy 752]

12 minutes ago, horsefly said:

The point is that the statistics are not remotely attempting to make such claims and I certainly don't either (just re-read my contributions). 

Well, you do - you say they weren’t expected to die from their other conditions.

Edit: can see your response to BB, so looks like we’re all agreed!.

Edited September 22, 2020 by Aggy

[horsefly 4,282]

8 minutes ago, Aggy said:

As two examples to follow on from that:

1. A man has terminal cancer and is given three weeks to live. The next day the man is in a car crash and dies from his injuries. Cause of death is the injuries from the crash. But it is inaccurate to say he was not expected to die from anything else. He was expected to die from cancer within three weeks.

2. An 85 year old man has multiple illnesses and doctors think that one of them will cause his organs to stop working within the next four weeks. He has caught covid and dies after only two weeks. Covid could have been the thing that stopped his organs from working. But it isn’t true to say he wasn’t expected to die from anything else. He was expected to die from something else within four weeks.

I have already dealt with this earlier, for e.g.

"We are all expected to die of old age at some indeterminate point in the future but if you get run over by a bus this afternoon it will be the injuries thus caused that kill you not old age. And if old age was destined to kill you precisely 1 second after you were actually killed by your bus accident injuries, it will still be those injuries that killed you not old age."

No one is claiming anything at all about the life-expectancy of those with underlying conditions. The statistics do not attempt in any way to do this. Thus your examples do not in anyway shape or form undermine the fact that they record circa 29,000 deaths from Covid-19. They are entirely consistent with accepting the point of your examples, because of this.

 

[horsefly 4,282]

3 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Well, you do - you say they weren’t expected to die from their other conditions.

Edit: can see your response to BB, so looks like we’re all agreed!.

YES! exactly! if they had not got Covid-19 they were not expected to die from those underlying conditions at the point at which they died. That is why the doctor concerned records the death as caused by Covid-19. I think you're missing the point that a doctor's recording of death is an indexical statement. It rightly makes no reference to what they might have died of later if they hadn't died of Covid-19 (just think about this for a moment and you will see that it would be absurd to do so)

[Aggy 752]

17 minutes ago, horsefly said:

I have already dealt with this earlier, for e.g.

"We are all expected to die of old age at some indeterminate point in the future but if you get run over by a bus this afternoon it will be the injuries thus caused that kill you not old age. And if old age was destined to kill you precisely 1 second after you were actually killed by your bus accident injuries, it will still be those injuries that killed you not old age."

No one is claiming anything at all about the life-expectancy of those with underlying conditions. The statistics do not attempt in any way to do this. Thus your examples do not in anyway shape or form undermine the fact that they record circa 29,000 deaths from Covid-19. They are entirely consistent with accepting the point of your examples, because of this.

 

I’m not disputing the statistics or saying they aren’t consistent with the examples.

I’m saying your statement that:

“No one is claiming anything at all about the life-expectancy of those with underlying conditions“

is contradicted by your statement that:

“they were not expected to have died from the effects of their pre-existing condition if they had not caught the virus.”

 

Edited September 22, 2020 by Aggy

[Yellow Fever 3,739]

Guys and girls - does it really matter if its 'just'  41,000 deaths or 65,000 deaths due to Covid in some manner.

Its way way more than the average flu year of 7,000 and shows very clearly in excess deaths.

The question is how do we stop it repeating ?

 

[ricardo 7,339]

6 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

The question is how do we stop it repeating ?

 

You can't until an effective vaccine appears. In any event it won't  be repeating to the same extent as March / April, even Whitty was careful not to make that claim.

There were lots of ifs and maybe's in yesterdays announcement which seemed mainly focused on frightening people into being more observant of the rules. 

[Barbe bleu 812]

The more I look at then and now thw more I wonder just how early we got it.  Had it already been in mass circulation long before we realised?   How far bacm have we dated it in the UK/ Europe?

[Aggy 752]

Is it possible to back-trace it? 
 

Ive got a vague recollection of an article on here about Dutch sewers which I’m sure said something about being able to tell how long it had been around but I might have completely made that up!

[ricardo 7,339]

[ricardo 7,339]

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Johnson, knowing how badly his world beating T&T has failed, is now saying the reason it is spreading is because of close contact. He is fed up with Labour criticising the system.

Yes we know that mop head, but you said your baby would reduce it. And people involved in the system are criticising it.

So once again, he maintains he is in control and has nothing to be sorry four.

Cornwall just had its biggest daily rise since the middle of the crisis.

[Yellow Fever 3,739]

What Gross Govt. Incompetence looks like ..... NO TESTS.

 

[horsefly 4,282]

2 hours ago, Aggy said:

I’m not disputing the statistics or saying they aren’t consistent with the examples.

I’m saying your statement that:

“No one is claiming anything at all about the life-expectancy of those with underlying conditions“

is contradicted by your statement that:

“they were not expected to have died from the effects of their pre-existing condition if they had not caught the virus.”

 

Read my whole statement accurately and you will see there is absolutely no contradiction in my position. If it helps you out let me amend the first statement that you have taken out of context to the following:

"No one is claiming anything at all about the life-expectancy of those with underlying conditions other than they would not have died (of those underlying conditions)at the moment they did if they had not caught Covid-19."

In other words Covid-19 killed them, and we do not speculate at all how long they would have survived with their underlying conditions if it had not.

No doubt future studies utilising statistical analysis will seek to do just that, but this set of statistics doesn't. 

If this isn't clear enough for you then I'm afraid I do not know how to make it any simpler.

 

[ricardo 7,339]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

 

Cornwall just had its biggest daily rise since the middle of the crisis.

Is it spread by pasties?

[ricardo 7,339]

51 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

What Gross Govt. Incompetence looks like ..... NO TESTS.

 

Its much the same everywhere, a six day wait in parts of France and testing in Spain is collapsing. Sometning to do with the supply of re-agents apparently.

[Aggy 752]

22 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Read my whole statement accurately and you will see there is absolutely no contradiction in my position. If it helps you out let me amend the first statement that you have taken out of context to the following:

"No one is claiming anything at all about the life-expectancy of those with underlying conditions other than they would not have died (of those underlying conditions)at the moment they did if they had not caught Covid-19."

In other words Covid-19 killed them, and we do not speculate at all how long they would have survived with their underlying conditions if it had not.

No doubt future studies utilising statistical analysis will seek to do just that, but this set of statistics doesn't. 

If this isn't clear enough for you then I'm afraid I do not know how to make it any simpler.

 

No need for making it simpler. It’s what I’ve been saying to you all morning. Glad we now agree!

[ricardo 7,339]

Positives climb a little over 2% of tests

Latest UK Numbers 

4926 - 37

Inpatients  1319  up 238 since last update Saturday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1350 - 17

France 5298 - 53

Spain  2957 - 56

Germany  2074 -11

Big reduction in French and Spanish positives may reflect testing problems.

[Yellow Fever 3,739]

15 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its much the same everywhere, a six day wait in parts of France and testing in Spain is collapsing. Sometning to do with the supply of re-agents apparently.

How can you expect people to self isolate if they can't even get or book a test in short order ? Every snivel will cause endless lost days. 

God help the schools....

Edited September 22, 2020 by Yellow Fever
Then again I suppose everybody can go and test their eyesight......

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

20 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Is it spread by pasties?

Better not be a shortage of them in a month's time when supplies start to run out after panic buying.

Might as well chuck ourselves off Hells Mouth😭

[The Real Buh 3,423]

If there was ever an example of why all politicians are absolutely f@££ing useless then it’s what’s happened today

guy fawkes night 2 when?

[Surfer 1,547]

Positive test rate - at 2% what is everyone there panicking about? Only the best of the US States are below, or even approaching 2%.. Some of them are at 15%.... so is UK over reacting? 
 

Reagents - why is there a shortage? Why has this problem not been sorted out? There must be money to be made through fixing it? 
 

Boris - it’s not our fault, Briton’s love freedom, in fact all the improvements in Britain over the centuries have come from .... Britain. That’s why we have to bring out the army to help the police and fine everybody. What a great speech .....
 

p.s. you can’t put a few thousand people in a football stadium, but you can keep cinemas open. 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Surfer said:

Positive test rate - at 2% what is everyone there panicking about? Only the best of the US States are below, or even approaching 2%.. Some of them are at 15%.... so is UK over reacting? 
 

Reagents - why is there a shortage? Why has this problem not been sorted out? There must be money to be made through fixing it? 
 

Boris - it’s not our fault, Briton’s love freedom, in fact all the improvements in Britain over the centuries have come from .... Britain. That’s why we have to bring out the army to help the police and fine everybody. What a great speech .....
 

p.s. you can’t put a few thousand people in a football stadium, but you can keep cinemas open. 

When someone is running the country who hasn't the ability and is only in the job because of Brexit, then the mess gets worse exponentially by the wrong decisions he makes.

Blame the public, blame Labour and blame bad luck. It is not his fault. I hope he remembers to take his sincerity pill.

I am positive he is being dramatic for one of two reasons. Either the first wave was worse than published or the testing system has completely broken down.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

3 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Better not be a shortage of them in a month's time when supplies start to run out after panic buying.

Might as well chuck ourselves off Hells Mouth😭

Still getting mine by post, 10 at a time, will have to make sure I heat them ...... really hot😉

Edited September 22, 2020 by Van wink

[Icecream Snow 761]

Listening to Boris at his 8pm address, I wish he could cut out the waffle and get to the point, a few PowerPoint bullet-points would have been quicker and clearer.

A staggering level of fluff.

Edited September 22, 2020 by Icecream Snow

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

9 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

Listening to Boris at his 8pm address, I wish he could cut out the waffle and get to the point, a few PowerPoint bullet-points would have been quicker and clearer.

A staggering level of fluff.

Don't think he has a clue what the point actually is, staggeringly incompetent and a complete embarassment to be British when we have a complete idiot running the country in the greatest crisis most of us have ever experienced.

[Van wink 2,994]

Would I lie to you on next

[ricardo 7,339]

Yawn

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

22 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Yawn

Past your bedtime?