sonyc 5,489 Posted September 17, 2020 https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/chris-whitty-wants-two-week-22696770?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar Whitty's voice has been absent these last few weeks so interesting to read he is pressuring government ....as well as eye opening figures suggested by this report. Yet in the absence of proper testing (with the Zoe app representative of just over 4m reporting over 5k infections, perhaps 38k isn't so far fetched at all scaling it up). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mark .Y. 351 Posted September 17, 2020 53 minutes ago, Herman said: Good Norfolk records plus an odd surname has made my family tree relatively easy to sort. Hits a brick wall in the 16th century but it's assumed because of migration from Europe. No wonder you're so anti-Brexit 🤣🙂😉 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,711 Posted September 17, 2020 Bloody Protestants, coming over here..... 😀 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,160 Posted September 17, 2020 37 minutes ago, sonyc said: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/chris-whitty-wants-two-week-22696770?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar Whitty's voice has been absent these last few weeks so interesting to read he is pressuring government ....as well as eye opening figures suggested by this report. Yet in the absence of proper testing (with the Zoe app representative of just over 4m reporting over 5k infections, perhaps 38k isn't so far fetched at all scaling it up). It’s a really difficult balance right now. But on the Zoe Covid app, the 5,400 number is a projection across the U.K. based on the people reporting so it’s already scaled up. But as I read it, it’s only people with symptomatic Covid so will be an under estimate to that extent eg if 50% are symptomatic you’re looking at about 10,000 new cases daily. 38,000 would be a major leap if true but the app has been a good basis so far and I doubt it’s that far out. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,740 Posted September 17, 2020 16 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said: It’s a really difficult balance right now. But on the Zoe Covid app, the 5,400 number is a projection across the U.K. based on the people reporting so it’s already scaled up. But as I read it, it’s only people with symptomatic Covid so will be an under estimate to that extent eg if 50% are symptomatic you’re looking at about 10,000 new cases daily. 38,000 would be a major leap if true but the app has been a good basis so far and I doubt it’s that far out. I would tend to agree with Whitty. Been caught out once so won't be again. Fool me once, fool me twice etc... Agree with the Zoe figures and yes may well be an underestimate - its the 'wishful thinking' again that I see that worries me in that hospital admissions and indeed deaths are a severe 'lag' figure but like all supertankers once they are obviously on the up it's 4 to 6 weeks too late to turn and avoid the iceberg! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tetteys Jig 830 Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, sonyc said: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/chris-whitty-wants-two-week-22696770?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar Whitty's voice has been absent these last few weeks so interesting to read he is pressuring government ....as well as eye opening figures suggested by this report. Yet in the absence of proper testing (with the Zoe app representative of just over 4m reporting over 5k infections, perhaps 38k isn't so far fetched at all scaling it up). doesn't the Zoe app extrapolate? 38k infections a day would be mental! Be a third of the way back to March estimated levels. I thought it was sat at like 5k a day with 50k total Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tetteys Jig 830 Posted September 17, 2020 Yeah I just looked and it's an estimate on the zoe app for total cases, we are at 6k a day with 60k total. Not good but not 38k a day Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,489 Posted September 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said: It’s a really difficult balance right now. But on the Zoe Covid app, the 5,400 number is a projection across the U.K. based on the people reporting so it’s already scaled up. But as I read it, it’s only people with symptomatic Covid so will be an under estimate to that extent eg if 50% are symptomatic you’re looking at about 10,000 new cases daily. 38,000 would be a major leap if true but the app has been a good basis so far and I doubt it’s that far out. Well it is a very odd figure to be quoted and Costello appears a respected figure. I agree its a big jump over the Zoe app (you're correct about the scale up). It feels as if we are at the cusp of something going on. A rising tide almost? Which set of reports do we respect? The testing problems only make it harder to fathom. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,489 Posted September 17, 2020 (edited) 26 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said: It’s a really difficult balance right now. But on the Zoe Covid app, the 5,400 number is a projection across the U.K. based on the people reporting so it’s already scaled up. But as I read it, it’s only people with symptomatic Covid so will be an under estimate to that extent eg if 50% are symptomatic you’re looking at about 10,000 new cases daily. 38,000 would be a major leap if true but the app has been a good basis so far and I doubt it’s that far out. And another question ICF....do we actually know the split of asymptomatic v symptomatic? It might well be 50% but I've not read the actual proportions at any time. PS. I realise your figures were an educated guess. Edited September 17, 2020 by sonyc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tetteys Jig 830 Posted September 17, 2020 https://mobile.twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306496397529751552 So the bloke they mentioned in the story about the 2 week lockdown now says it's not true, Whitty doesn't support a 2 week lockdown Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted September 17, 2020 24 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: I would tend to agree with Whitty. Been caught out once so won't be again. Fool me once, fool me twice etc... Agree with the Zoe figures and yes may well be an underestimate - its the 'wishful thinking' again that I see that worries me in that hospital admissions and indeed deaths are a severe 'lag' figure but like all supertankers once they are obviously on the up it's 4 to 6 weeks too late to turn and avoid the iceberg! Couldnt agree more, its tempting to believe history wont repeat itself but I'm afraid it will. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,160 Posted September 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, sonyc said: And another question ICF....do we actually know the split of asymptomatic v symptomatic? It might well be 50% but I've not read the actual proportions at any time. PS. I realise your figures were an educated guess. Yep, the tricky bit about asymptomatic carriers is the only way to know is if you test a whole population at some point, which obviously doesn't happen that often. I've seen varying numbers from different studies at different times. My guess is that it will vary depending on the makeup of the group involved and probably younger carriers are more likely to be asymptomatic. I think we can say there are definitely a high percentage of asymptomatic carriers, probably if you took the range 25% to 75% it would be somewhere inside that range, so I just took 50% as being as sensible an assumption as you can use for a back of a fag packet guess ! I'm old enough to have actually done a calculation on the bag of a fag packet ! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,340 Posted September 17, 2020 10 hours ago, keelansgrandad said: I think a bit is a slight economy of description Ricardo. Nearly 25% up. From 1.3 percent to 1.8 percent 😀 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,489 Posted September 17, 2020 21 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said: https://mobile.twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306496397529751552 So the bloke they mentioned in the story about the 2 week lockdown now says it's not true, Whitty doesn't support a 2 week lockdown Fake news then? 🤔 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tetteys Jig 830 Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, sonyc said: Fake news then? 🤔 in fairness he tweeted about whitty advocating national lockdown last night. They guy clearly doesn't know then. I suspect the government don't know what the plan is anyway! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,740 Posted September 17, 2020 44 minutes ago, sonyc said: And another question ICF....do we actually know the split of asymptomatic v symptomatic? It might well be 50% but I've not read the actual proportions at any time. PS. I realise your figures were an educated guess. Can't recall where I saw it but numbers where more 3 or 4 to 1 to 1 (66% + few or asymptomatic). It's one of the arguements of the 'herd immunity' tribe that we've all already had it. I suspect not. Remember that most kids don't show it so it's also quite age dependent behind the head line figures. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jools 584 Posted September 17, 2020 17/09/2020 --- Still threatening a second lockdown 🤪 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tetteys Jig 830 Posted September 17, 2020 https://mobile.twitter.com/jadenozzz/status/1306587037244428291 very interesting strategy discussion this afternoon with Prof Carl Heneghan. His points around sustainable use of testing etc were very pertinent. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,340 Posted September 17, 2020 (edited) positives drop back again (by 600) Latest UK Numbers 3395 - 21 Inpatients 988 up by 87 since yesterday but bouncing around a bit. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ Yesterdays European. Italy 1452 - 12 France 9748 - 46 Spain 11193 - 239 Germany 2021 - 4 Spain and France very high number of positives. Spain fatalities appear to include the addition of historic cases. Italy and Germany still in the same range as three weeks ago. Edited September 17, 2020 by ricardo 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted September 17, 2020 19 hours ago, Jools said: What RW government? Surely you don't mean the current small 'c' conservatives? We on the Right and former Labour voters up North wanted to vote for the Brexit Party, but of course that would've split the vote and we'd have been left with the frightening prospect of a Labour/SNP/Lib-Dum coalition and no Brexit 😲 I don't want to even try and imagine how Steptoe, Swansong and fatty Blackford would've dealt with the China flu 😱 You are typical Tory boy. (You can't be Brexit because they only had one policy.) We have fcuked up but they would have been worse. It wasn't me Miss. Blame someone who has had nothing to do with it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted September 17, 2020 3 hours ago, Jools said: 17/09/2020 --- Still threatening a second lockdown 🤪 Apparently Chris Whitty wanted one. I suppose he will be sent off to Elba with Van Damm now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,160 Posted September 17, 2020 29 minutes ago, ricardo said: positives drop back again (by 600) Latest UK Numbers 3395 - 21 Inpatients 988 up by 87 since yesterday but bouncing around a bit. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ Yesterdays European. Italy 1452 - 12 France 9748 - 46 Spain 11193 - 239 Germany 2021 - 4 Spain and France very high number of positives. Spain fatalities appear to include the addition of historic cases. Italy and Germany still in the same range as three weeks ago. Although France & Spain are at high levels for new cases, they seem to have been "there or thereabouts" 10,000 or so for a while now AFAIR. Has anyone seen any news about measures they've been taking, how much testing they've been doing and so on. Also what are they doing differently in Italy from France, Spain & us ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted September 17, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, ricardo said: positives drop back again (by 600) Latest UK Numbers 3395 - 21 Inpatients 988 up by 87 since yesterday but bouncing around a bit. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ Yesterdays European. Italy 1452 - 12 France 9748 - 46 Spain 11193 - 239 Germany 2021 - 4 Spain and France very high number of positives. Spain fatalities appear to include the addition of historic cases. Italy and Germany still in the same range as three weeks ago. 6478 on Zoe, a far better reflection of where we are. UK test track and trace is really on the back foot atm, struggling to say the least.Dido needs to get a grip cos it’s getting out of control. Edited September 17, 2020 by Van wink Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted September 17, 2020 I’m sorry guys but for all the pontification from various poster: the virus is the same one as we saw earlier in the year and unless we take it seriously the outcome is going to be the same. Please don’t get taken in by all the noise around low hospital admissions atm, those figures will be on the up as we move into the winter. Please follow the rules 👍 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted September 17, 2020 51 minutes ago, Van wink said: I’m sorry guys but for all the pontification from various poster: the virus is the same one as we saw earlier in the year and unless we take it seriously the outcome is going to be the same. Please don’t get taken in by all the noise around low hospital admissions atm, those figures will be on the up as we move into the winter. Please follow the rules 👍 Sensible advice VW. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,340 Posted September 17, 2020 43 minutes ago, Van wink said: I’m sorry guys but for all the pontification from various poster: the virus is the same one as we saw earlier in the year and unless we take it seriously the outcome is going to be the same. Please don’t get taken in by all the noise around low hospital admissions atm, those figures will be on the up as we move into the winter. Please follow the rules 👍 Yes cases will increase as the flu season comes on. I've got my flu jab appointment sorted and advise all who can to do the same. As always, time will tell how this plays out. Wear a mask, keep your distance and stay safe. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,711 Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Van wink said: 6478 on Zoe, a far better reflection of where we are. UK test track and trace is really on the back foot atm, struggling to say the least.Dido needs to get a grip cos it’s getting out of control. She just told committee that the rise in people wanting tests wasn't expected!? 🤨 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted September 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, Herman said: She just told committee that the rise in people wanting tests wasn't expected!? 🤨 It’s just shocking, complacency would be generous Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,489 Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Van wink said: It’s just shocking, complacency would be generous You just get the sense that we are at a pivot point. Like a wave about to crash. Local news tonight in my part of the world has talked up a coming emergency in North Yorkshire where rates have quadrupled. Whitty stated only a few weeks ago that he sensed we would have a very difficult winter. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,489 Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Herman said: She just told committee that the rise in people wanting tests wasn't expected!? 🤨 This is the person given two jobs in very quick time when she hadn't even begun to get the first one in hand. And this is the person who funded Matt Hancock's leadership campaign. Odd that. And Hancock is the one who has appointed her. All so utterly depressing. No wonder people feel a lack of trust. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites