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28 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Okay let’s break it down for you.

Firstly, lethal means causing death. You’ve posted two links talking about hospital admissions. Nothing to do with deaths. 

Secondly, you said “less lethal”. So to determine if it’s less lethal or not, the current number of deaths (or even hospital admissions if you want to widen your definition from ‘lethal’) is irrelevant on its own. You have to compare it to something. How many deaths were there at the peak of the virus around the end of March? How many are there now? So unless you can show more people are dying from covid now, you’re fighting a losing battle to say it’s equally lethal.

You’ve also posted numerous times about the infection rates being higher than reported, increasing massively etc. Yet despite this massive increase in infections you seem so desperate to tell us all about, the deaths aren’t rising. So how do you explain the fact that across the whole of Europe, the ratio of deaths to positive infections is much, much, much smaller than it was in March? You’ve told us it isn’t down to increased testing. You’ve told us the virus isn’t less lethal. So what is it?

Nobody’s saying that no one will ever die from covid ever again anywhere ever. Nobody’s saying that we don’t need to take it seriously. Nobody’s saying that you can’t be concerned about it. But when you post like your last three posts, it’s nothing more than scaremongering.

Edit: you also said yesterday that there were two people in icu in the QE who were in their twenties with no underlying health conditions. This isn’t mentioned in the article you’ve linked to or anywhere else online. In fact the only mention of people in their twenties in the article you’ve linked to says they caught it longer ago than two weeks and are now recovering. So why not just say that instead of adding details that they have no underlying health conditions (which you don’t know), that they’re in icu (which they aren’t) and even that there are two of them (neither that article or anywhere else I can see specifies). 

Edited by Aggy

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9 hours ago, Aggy said:

 

“Far more likely, I would have thought, is that it’s simply a case of it spreading quicker amongst youngsters (who are not self shielding) and it having had enough time to get through a few generations before it gets to those shielding”

Yes that’s  very likely the way things are working. 👍


As for mutations, I’m not sure there is any evidence that the virus is more or less virulent than it was earlier in the year?  What has changed is behaviour breaking the chain of infection, whether that will be sufficient during the autumn and winter will remain to be seen, my view is it probably won’t be.

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9 hours ago, Aggy said:

Okay let’s break it down for you.

Firstly, lethal means causing death. You’ve posted two links talking about hospital admissions. Nothing to do with deaths. 

Secondly, you said “less lethal”. So to determine if it’s less lethal or not, the current number of deaths (or even hospital admissions if you want to widen your definition from ‘lethal’) is irrelevant on its own. You have to compare it to something. How many deaths were there at the peak of the virus around the end of March? How many are there now? So unless you can show more people are dying from covid now, you’re fighting a losing battle to say it’s equally lethal.

You’ve also posted numerous times about the infection rates being higher than reported, increasing massively etc. Yet despite this massive increase in infections you seem so desperate to tell us all about, the deaths aren’t rising. So how do you explain the fact that across the whole of Europe, the ratio of deaths to positive infections is much, much, much smaller than it was in March? You’ve told us it isn’t down to increased testing. You’ve told us the virus isn’t less lethal. So what is it?

Nobody’s saying that no one will ever die from covid ever again anywhere ever. Nobody’s saying that we don’t need to take it seriously. Nobody’s saying that you can’t be concerned about it. But when you post like your last three posts, it’s nothing more than scaremongering.

Edit: you also said yesterday that there were two people in icu in the QE who were in their twenties with no underlying health conditions. This isn’t mentioned in the article you’ve linked to or anywhere else online. In fact the only mention of people in their twenties in the article you’ve linked to says they caught it longer ago than two weeks and are now recovering. So why not just say that instead of adding details that they have no underlying health conditions (which you don’t know), that they’re in icu (which they aren’t) and even that there are two of them (neither that article or anywhere else I can see specifies). 

Lol why would I be scare mongering. When have I ever said this would be worse than the last strain ?. I even clarified what I said by saying he could be exaggerating. Of course one hopes there will be less deaths, but that’s because it is hoped treatments will work. What is not known is the number of people that will have health problems for the rest of their lives. If you think I scare monger, why do I quote articles of treatments and vaccines long before it is officially announced ?I personally believe this will begin to be over as very soon a vaccine will be available. In his tv interview this guy said there were people in their twenties, he also mentioned that the deaths don’t start for another 28 days as that is how long it takes as an average to go into icu and then die ( can’t prove that as news on iplayer is removed after 24 hours ). I am not sure what you are actually saying ? Are you saying the virus has mutated into something less dangerous, if so I fear you are wrong, it is the same disease it was between March and June. If that is what you are saying then below is a warning from the same article warning people that the virus is the same virus and criticised those trying to claim different.

Anyway don’t bother coming up with a long reply as I will not be coming on this thread again, I only came on here to give you good news re the vaccine ( hardly scare mongering ) and asked Ricardo wether he thought the government figures were accurate as ‘ if it could be believed this is what’s being reported ‘. 
 

He also criticised those claiming the virus has 'weakened' or mutated into a less dangerous version.

Dr Mark Garvey, consultant microbiologist and deputy chief of infection prevention and control for the trust, has studied the virus closely for six months through more than 3,000 patients, and described such claims as "a myth".

"The coronavirus in our patients today is exactly the same now as it was in April, it is exactly the same strain," he said.

 
0_BeFunky-collage-3-1.jpg
Dr Mark Garvey, consultant clinical scientist

"When you look at the mutational frequency of the virus there are very, very small changes - it is essentially exactly the same as it was." 

The smaller numbers involved so far are down to lower incidence in the community, due to social distancing, restrictions on gatherings and so on, and a concentration among younger people, he said.

"But the virus itself is still as harmful," he added.

"At our peak we had 708 in-patients at one time, of which about one in six were critically ill. We are seeing the same proportion now."

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It has nothing to do with a weakening of the virus. What we are seeing is the virus having greater difficulty finding a vulnerable host. Putting it rather brutally it has already burned through the dry tinder. Across Europe infection rates have risen but fatality rates remain many times below the level reached in March / April.

The jury is still out on the question of a second wave but the evidence so far remains weak.

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I expect the Government to take the regional variation into account in their efforts to control our movements and or actions, any disproportional lock down, I don't believe they want to go down that route, it looks as if they still have herd immunity in Boris Cummings brain matrix.

By next year, should our wheat harvest be down again, we might see people die of the causes of a recession due to the law abusing Brexit process, with the dangers of this virus added.

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4 hours ago, ricardo said:

It has nothing to do with a weakening of the virus. What we are seeing is the virus having greater difficulty finding a vulnerable host. Putting it rather brutally it has already burned through the dry tinder. Across Europe infection rates have risen but fatality rates remain many times below the level reached in March / April.

The jury is still out on the question of a second wave but the evidence so far remains weak.

I agree with this but wanted to comment a few days ago on that 'video' which I think actually didn't answer it's own questions and rather cherry picked it's data to fits its hypothesis.

The hypothesis at the root of the video was that irrespective of lockdown strategies in effect the virus curves where all similar as according to the narrator only 20% of the populations where ever susceptible due to cross immunity, genetics and many other 'loosely' proven explanations. In short in all countries the 'downturn' of prevalence occurred simply due to the susceptible 20% or so achieving  a herd immunity. Now while some of these points are correct such a hypothesis on existing herd immunity then completely fails to explain the recent resurgence of the virus (and exponential growth) in Europe and elsewhere. Once herd immunity is achieved apart from very isolated and small 'virgin' blips the prevalence should always be diminishing into the noise as it gets harder and harder to infect fresh meat. Very obviously such herd immunity was not and has not been achieved!

The truth is of course that much 'dry tinder' has indeed been burnt through (care homes) but the lockdowns aka 'fire-breaks' largely interrupted the transmission of the disease and saved many lives. There is however still a lot of dry tinder left to burn hiding away  - some of which doesn't even realize it yet!

As per WBB's article above - nothing of note has changed - we are way off herd immunity - except that we will have slowed the transmission with current restrictions but no doubt the hospital admissions and indeed deaths will follow as sure as night follows day. 28 days was the typical 'lag' as noted elsewhere.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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24 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I agree with this but wanted to comment a few days ago on that 'video' which I think actually didn't answer it's own questions and rather cherry picked it's data to fits its hypothesis.

The hypothesis at the root of the video was that irrespective of lockdown strategies in effect the virus curves where all similar as according to the narrator only 20% of the populations where ever susceptible due to cross immunity, genetics and many other 'loosely' proven explanations. In short in all countries the 'downturn' of prevalence occurred simply due to the susceptible 20% or so achieving  a herd immunity. Now while some of these points are correct such a hypothesis on existing herd immunity then completely fails to explain the recent resurgence of the virus (and exponential growth) in Europe and elsewhere. Once herd immunity is achieved apart from very isolated and small 'virgin' blips the prevalence should always be diminishing into the noise as it gets harder and harder to infect fresh meat. Very obviously such herd immunity was not and has not been achieved!

The truth is of course that much 'dry tinder' has indeed been burnt through (care homes) but the lockdowns aka 'fire-breaks' largely interrupted the transmission of the disease and saved many lives. There is however still a lot of dry tinder left to burn hiding away  - some of which doesn't even realize it yet!

As per WBB's article above - nothing of note has changed - we are way off herd immunity - except that we will have slowed the transmission with current restrictions but no doubt the hospital admissions and indeed deaths will follow as sure as night follows day. 28 days was the typical 'lag' as noted elsewhere.

Fully agree, no evidence of a weakening of the virus through any scientific study that I have seen, the virus is just as dangerous as it always was. Neither do I buy the theory around 20% population susceptibility.

There are two issues at play here imo, the age group of those infected and potentially, infections being less serious due to a lower infective dose. 

As for the former, the infection will not confine itself to the young population, it will leak into the older and more vulnerable groups in due course. There is still plenty of "dry tinder" particularly and sadly in the lower socio economic groups.

As for the latter, what we are doing with our interventions is trying to break the chain of infection. Here I do have some hope if...and its a big if....we don't have too many clowns, like our absent friend, who choose to flout the rules. Additionally the much maligned T T and T whilst not world beating is doing a job, and many many potentially infectious people are temporarily being removed from society again breaking the potential chain of infection. 

My great hope, which I couldn't have expressed well as Aggy was unable follow my thoughts is that we are seeing people becoming infected with a lower dose of virus and this is will be a big help in preventing serious morbidity as a result.

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THE UK's "true" Covid death toll has surpassed more than 57,500, the ONS has confirmed.

In figures published this morning, the ONS reported that there had been 52,420 deaths involving Covid-19 in England and Wales up to September 4.

This is 11K more than we have been fed on.

Anyone think it is deliberate? That is a massive difference.

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I agree with this but wanted to comment a few days ago on that 'video' which I think actually didn't answer it's own questions and rather cherry picked it's data to fits its hypothesis.

The hypothesis at the root of the video was that irrespective of lockdown strategies in effect the virus curves where all similar as according to the narrator only 20% of the populations where ever susceptible due to cross immunity, genetics and many other 'loosely' proven explanations. In short in all countries the 'downturn' of prevalence occurred simply due to the susceptible 20% or so achieving  a herd immunity. Now while some of these points are correct such a hypothesis on existing herd immunity then completely fails to explain the recent resurgence of the virus (and exponential growth) in Europe and elsewhere. Once herd immunity is achieved apart from very isolated and small 'virgin' blips the prevalence should always be diminishing into the noise as it gets harder and harder to infect fresh meat. Very obviously such herd immunity was not and has not been achieved!

The truth is of course that much 'dry tinder' has indeed been burnt through (care homes) but the lockdowns aka 'fire-breaks' largely interrupted the transmission of the disease and saved many lives. There is however still a lot of dry tinder left to burn hiding away  - some of which doesn't even realize it yet!

As per WBB's article above - nothing of note has changed - we are way off herd immunity - except that we will have slowed the transmission with current restrictions but no doubt the hospital admissions and indeed deaths will follow as sure as night follows day. 28 days was the typical 'lag' as noted elsewhere.

Yes, I agree that there is still plenty of dry tinder still around but we have learned through experience to reduce exposure of the vulnerable. I certainly wouldn't dismiss the idea of natural immunity or herd immunity as readily as some are doing. Herd immunity is a natural process and will have an increasing effect over time.

If you are correct about increasing mortality we ought to be seeing it by now. Italy, France and Spain were all weeks ahead of us on the initial epidemic curve and none have yet seen mortality anywhere near the previous rate. I don't expect the UK to be any different in this respect.

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 positives  1.3%

Latest UK Numbers  3105 - 27

Inpatients  972  up by 88 since Saturday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European. (incomplete)

Italy   1008 - 14

France 6158 - 34

Spain   3023 - 33

Germany  1923 - 8

Have a look back over the last two weeks numbers from page 380 this thread. Numbers have bounced about for all countries but still no exponential lift off in mortality. Should we not have seen Italy and Spain in the hundreds by now?

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8 minutes ago, sonyc said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/15/sweden-records-its-fewest-daily-covid-19-cases-since-march?

How fascinating Sweden continues to be.

Almost everywhere else numbers are increasing at the minute.

One would expect to see differences in countries with either light or heavy lockdowns or none at all. The graphs seem to be following the same curves regardless.

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15 minutes ago, ricardo said:

One would expect to see differences in countries with either light or heavy lockdowns or none at all. The graphs seem to be following the same curves regardless.

Ricardo - I have spent a long time in Japan - and they are pretty good on Covid despite the 'density' in places such as Tokyo, Yokohama etc. It should have been a disaster. They have cares home like us too as I know 1st hand! Much could also be said of any number of Chinese cities - not so polite but conformance is guaranteed!

What has always been absolutely noticeable about Japanese society as whole is that they are very polite and conform - face masks for colds, little litter, follow the rules etc (given the density anything else would lead to chaos).

So for what its worth I suspect such scrupulous societies deal collectively with the pandemic much better than our more free for all ones. Sweden as is well known is in reality somewhere between us and them. A more inclusive and caring society, 

 

Oh - ought to add i think I saw somewhere properly researched / scientific (was it ONS)  that about 65% are thought to be susceptible to the disease - not 20%

Edited by Yellow Fever

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Yes there is little doubt that some of the far eastern countries have handled things far better than most. Experience and close proximity to recent viral outbreaks has also been a factor I suggest.

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45 minutes ago, ricardo said:

 positives  1.3%

Latest UK Numbers  3105 - 27

Inpatients  972  up by 88 since Saturday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European. (incomplete)

Italy   1008 - 14

France 6158 - 34

Spain   3023 - 33

Germany  1923 - 8

Have a look back over the last two weeks numbers from page 380 this thread. Numbers have bounced about for all countries but still no exponential lift off in mortality. Should we not have seen Italy and Spain in the hundreds by now?

Not Italy but would have expected it, based purely on numbers, for Spain and France. I believe there are increased admission figures in certain localities in France. Fascinating isnt it.

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2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Yes there is little doubt that some of the far eastern countries have handled things far better than most. Experience and close proximity to recent viral outbreaks has also been a factor I suggest.

I just look for the most likely explanations for differences between countries - and then play devils advocate with any 'hypothesis' such as 'current'  herd immunity. It fails.

The most likely explanations are public and societal attitudes plus demographics.

I'm sure there are questions about viral 'dose', cross immunity but i suspect most are second order compared to the above.  

Also juts heard (R4) as I write our 'test numbers' are also a week out of date  - much as I had guessed /argued in an earlier post. It's worse than we think.

As to hospitalization and morbidity - just a ticking time bomb even with out better and earlier treatments.

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3 hours ago, ricardo said:

 positives  1.3%

Latest UK Numbers  3105 - 27

Inpatients  972  up by 88 since Saturday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European. (incomplete)

Italy   1008 - 14

France 6158 - 34

Spain   3023 - 33

Germany  1923 - 8

Have a look back over the last two weeks numbers from page 380 this thread. Numbers have bounced about for all countries but still no exponential lift off in mortality. Should we not have seen Italy and Spain in the hundreds by now?

Well over 5000 cases per day on the Zoe app

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

So when do you expect deaths to move into the multi hundreds?

That's a tricky one as it depends on how effective our current (or yet to be imposed) restrictions are - and also how long it takes to  jump into the the more elderly population from the house party/barbeque group in the good weather.

I would give it a month for everybody to start realizing it's back and deaths ticking up significantly at the latest-  and then if we don't take more decisive action towards Christmas for a true calamity - probably  not quite so intense but more drawn out than the first (better treatments and understanding  etc). What I would hope is that we take effective preventative action early (T, T & ISOLATE) early to avoid the big hit again.

As an aside was in Gaol Hill Tesco yesterday lunchtime. Two customers without mask - a smart young woman and what looked like a workman. They both should of been shown the door. Therein lies the problem. Apathy and ignorance.  It's not if you think masks are effective or otherwise but all doing the 'right' things aka Japan. They will surely hang separately! 

Let's not hope we have flu pandemic this year as well!

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Well over 5000 cases per day on the Zoe app

I trust this app....probably more these days than government stats. Zoe records folk with symptoms who have self-reported. It's a very good site. Likewise the ONS stats.

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19 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I trust this app....probably more these days than government stats. Zoe records folk with symptoms who have self-reported. It's a very good site. Likewise the ONS stats.

Yes indeed, and a quick plug, the more that report the better the data.Over 4 million of us report... sign up here...

https://covid.joinzoe.com/

Edited by Van wink

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Considering the ONS has revised the number of deaths from 41K to 52K in  England and Wales, and 57K overall a difference not much lower than the town I live in, then I trust nothing at the moment. How can it be out by over 25% when they off nearly 5K not long ago.

All we have is an opinion and our own beliefs. And those are based on stats and figures. Ones that obviously can't be believed. 

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

That's a tricky one as it depends on how effective our current (or yet to be imposed) restrictions are - and also how long it takes to  jump into the the more elderly population from the house party/barbeque group in the good weather.

I would give it a month for everybody to start realizing it's back and deaths ticking up significantly at the latest-  and then if we don't take more decisive action towards Christmas for a true calamity - probably  not quite so intense but more drawn out than the first (better treatments and understanding  etc). What I would hope is that we take effective preventative action early (T, T & ISOLATE) early to avoid the big hit again.

As an aside was in Gaol Hill Tesco yesterday lunchtime. Two customers without mask - a smart young woman and what looked like a workman. They both should of been shown the door. Therein lies the problem. Apathy and ignorance.  It's not if you think masks are effective or otherwise but all doing the 'right' things aka Japan. They will surely hang separately! 

Let's not hope we have flu pandemic this year as well!

 

 

 

I see no evidence for any big uplift at the moment. That might change but so far I am quite sceptical about a major second wave. Let's see how it goes for the next couple of weeks.

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3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I see no evidence for any big uplift at the moment. That might change but so far I am quite sceptical about a major second wave. Let's see how it goes for the next couple of weeks.

And so it starts...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/15/tameside-hospital-fights-uks-first-fatal-outbreak-of-hospital-acquired-covid

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I am shocked that I have posted twice that the ONS has revealed the real death figure-yes that is human beings dying-and no-one has batted an eyelid but are more concerned with guessing the future.

Amazing how blase it all is.  Just old people dying.

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23 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I am shocked that I have posted twice that the ONS has revealed the real death figure-yes that is human beings dying-and no-one has batted an eyelid but are more concerned with guessing the future.

Amazing how blase it all is.  Just old people dying.

In answer to your lack of trust of figures, I suggest the ONS is very faithful as a source. But as ever, figures are just that, they hide the real human stories. 

Meaning is found in the life of the individual. Always. 

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2 hours ago, sonyc said:

I trust this app....probably more these days than government stats. Zoe records folk with symptoms who have self-reported. It's a very good site. Likewise the ONS stats.

Doesn't look too great for the upcoming winter period does it? Thing is, I don't think that having a 2nd lockdown will actually solve much either. I think that would just create more problems than it solves. Surely the best step would be to tell the elderly to shield and try ride out this winter? I think it's just getting to the point where we can't just keep kicking the can down the road forever.

Does anyone actually think a 2nd lockdown would work? If so, then what?

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49 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I am shocked that I have posted twice that the ONS has revealed the real death figure-yes that is human beings dying-and no-one has batted an eyelid but are more concerned with guessing the future.

Amazing how blase it all is.  Just old people dying.

I think that the ONS looks at deaths with covid on the certificate as the cause or as a contributing factor refrdkezs of test status (though a positive test is always included) .  The 'official figures' require a positive test with 28 days.

ONS has always been higher as far as i know.

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