Corona Virus main thread

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Tweed is what we need

[ricardo 7,343]

Now positives drop back to just over 1%

Latest UK Numbers  2621 - 9

Inpatients  884  no change

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European. (incomplete)

Italy   1458 - 7

France 7183 - 6

Spain   ? again no reports

Germany  752 - 1

still no sign of an exponential second wave anywhere

[Aggy 752]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Now positives drop back to just over 1%

Latest UK Numbers  2621 - 9

Inpatients  884  no change

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European. (incomplete)

Italy   1458 - 7

France 7183 - 6

Spain   ? again no reports

Germany  752 - 1

still no sign of an exponential second wave anywhere

When you say ‘incomplete’ here, does that mean Spain’s are missing or are all incomplete?
 

France’s seems a pretty big drop in deaths and cases.

[Aggy 752]

Just now, Aggy said:

When you say ‘incomplete’ here, does that mean Spain’s are missing or are all incomplete?
 

France’s seems a pretty big drop in deaths and cases.

Also, I don’t even read/watch the news anymore Ricardo, I just log on here around tea time for your daily update!

[ricardo 7,343]

8 minutes ago, Aggy said:

When you say ‘incomplete’ here, does that mean Spain’s are missing or are all incomplete?
 

France’s seems a pretty big drop in deaths and cases.

Haven't found anything from Spain for Sat or Sun.

The others are complete.

[ricardo 7,343]

8 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Also, I don’t even read/watch the news anymore Ricardo, I just log on here around tea time for your daily update!

👍

[sonyc 5,490]

27 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Also, I don’t even read/watch the news anymore Ricardo, I just log on here around tea time for your daily update!

I used to log in every two weeks or so to read the match report. I now do so daily to read the figures. Except an hour or so earlier 😉

[ricardo 7,343]

6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I used to log in every two weeks or so to read the match report. I now do so daily to read the figures. Except an hour or so earlier 😉

Sorry about the match reports. Virus willing they will resume at some stage in the not too distant future. From all that I am reading and seeing on the internet regarding the epidemic, I am becoming more and more confident that we will be back at CR some time this season.

Mrs R and I had a pleasant trip up to North Norfolk today (socially distanced of course). Coffee at Walsingham, lunch at Hunstanton and a drive through quiet country roads. A glorious sunny September day and a joy to be out in this beautiful county of ours. As our most famous son remarked, "I am a Norfolk man and glory in being so."👍

Spot on Horatio.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Sorry about the match reports. Virus willing they will resume at some stage in the not too distant future. From all that I am reading and seeing on the internet regarding the epidemic, I am becoming more and more confident that we will be back at CR some time this season.

Mrs R and I had a pleasant trip up to North Norfolk today (socially distanced of course). Coffee at Walsingham, lunch at Hunstanton and a drive through quiet country roads. A glorious sunny September day and a joy to be out in this beautiful county of ours. As our most famous son remarked, "I am a Norfolk man and glory in being so."👍

Spot on Horatio.

Lovely walk and a pint at the Gin Trap yesterday, a stroll through Dersingham Bog today, in my waders 😉

[ricardo 7,343]

2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Lovely walk and a pint at the Gin Trap yesterday, a stroll through Dersingham Bog today, in my waders 😉

Drove past it on the way back this afternoon. Mrs R tells me the food has a good reputation but have never tried it yet.

[Van wink 2,994]

25 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Drove past it on the way back this afternoon. Mrs R tells me the food has a good reputation but have never tried it yet.

No neither have we but a very convenient location for a half way round pint on a circular walk😀

[sonyc 5,490]

36 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Sorry about the match reports. Virus willing they will resume at some stage in the not too distant future. From all that I am reading and seeing on the internet regarding the epidemic, I am becoming more and more confident that we will be back at CR some time this season.

Mrs R and I had a pleasant trip up to North Norfolk today (socially distanced of course). Coffee at Walsingham, lunch at Hunstanton and a drive through quiet country roads. A glorious sunny September day and a joy to be out in this beautiful county of ours. As our most famous son remarked, "I am a Norfolk man and glory in being so."👍

Spot on Horatio.

You could try a virtual report of course. Not the same as being at the ground ....as well as an entirely different pre match ritual. It might be quite surreal.

Spent many years going to Old Hunstanton as used to live not far away. Sunny Hunny. 

[ricardo 7,343]

2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

You could try a virtual report of course.

 

I did give this some thought but dismissed it as a bit false.

I can't really start by saying I settled down in the armchair with a nice cup of tea and a biscuit and waited for IFollow to unfreeze itself, can I?😉

On reflection, nipping out for a wee would be a lot easier though.😉

[sonyc 5,490]

5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I did give this some thought but dismissed it as a bit false.

I can't really start by saying I settled down in the armchair with a nice cup of tea and a biscuit and waited for IFollow to unfreeze itself, can I?😉

On reflection, nipping out for a wee would be a lot easier though.😉

You could start like that yes....a bit of impressionism never goes amiss. Get some training in for your chapters.

And you can always freeze live TV for the latter 😉

[Yellow Fever 3,746]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

Now positives drop back to just over 1%

Latest UK Numbers  2621 - 9

Inpatients  884  no change

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European. (incomplete)

Italy   1458 - 7

France 7183 - 6

Spain   ? again no reports

Germany  752 - 1

still no sign of an exponential second wave anywhere

I think we currently have to be cautios about our test numbers.

I belive we have 200,000 test in backlog and others can't get a test when they need one. Test are also taking days to be processed and results returned.

Upshot is it' highly likely we are undereporting our current prevalence 

[Van wink 2,994]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think we currently have to be cautios about our test numbers.

I belive we have 200,000 test in backlog and others can't get a test when they need one. Test are also taking days to be processed and results returned.

Upshot is it' highly likely we are undereporting our current prevalence 

Indeed, the Zoe app has today’s figures at 4200 which I suspect is a more accurate reflection. Seeing the recent figures for age distribution of positive tests, no doubt Increased hospital admissions will showing in a week or two.

[Yellow Fever 3,746]

3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Indeed, the Zoe app has today’s figures at 4200 which I suspect is a more accurate reflection. Seeing the recent figures for age distribution of positive tests, no doubt Increased hospital admissions will showing in a week or two.

I also suspect these test figures and their 'issues'  where responsible for the sudden jump a week ago by 50% or whatever. At the time I wondered if it was a blip but it stayed all but static for days. I think the jump was unnatural and more like test 'noise' dominating an upward curve. Expect another sudden jump which will shock when the backlog gets reported etc.

I see no reason for wishful thinking and I suspect the powers that be know it.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

58 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I did give this some thought but dismissed it as a bit false.

I can't really start by saying I settled down in the armchair with a nice cup of tea and a biscuit and waited for IFollow to unfreeze itself, can I?😉

On reflection, nipping out for a wee would be a lot easier though.😉

How about, "Settling down in the armchair, and ignoring the damp spot in the corner, I noticed Mrs Ricardo had bought Custard Creams this week, probably because they fit better on the saucer."

 I bet half time isn't a queue for a jimmy riddle either.

[Aggy 752]

42 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think we currently have to be cautios about our test numbers.

I belive we have 200,000 test in backlog and others can't get a test when they need one. Test are also taking days to be processed and results returned.

Upshot is it' highly likely we are undereporting our current prevalence 

Are we underreporting deaths and hospital admissions as well? 

[Aggy 752]

38 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Indeed, the Zoe app has today’s figures at 4200 which I suspect is a more accurate reflection. Seeing the recent figures for age distribution of positive tests, no doubt Increased hospital admissions will showing in a week or two.

Are you going to choose a date for the upshot and stick with it vw? You’ve been saying they’ll rise in a couple of weeks since the end of June!

I expect they will rise as we get into autumn and winter. We always have more pneumonia / flu deaths around this time through to March, so no reason to believe covid won’t be the same. An uprise shouldn’t be an issue and certainly shouldn’t in itself be enough to bring in, for instance, lockdown changes. We don’t do so when more people die from flu around this time of year. The only issue is if it becomes unmanageable. At the moment, no sign of that. And we’ve got the nightingale hospitals completely empty ready for use (mostly) still if necessary. Plenty of reason for optimism. 

[Van wink 2,994]

17 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Are you going to choose a date for the upshot and stick with it vw? You’ve been saying they’ll rise in a couple of weeks since the end of June!

I expect they will rise as we get into autumn and winter. We always have more pneumonia / flu deaths around this time through to March, so no reason to believe covid won’t be the same. An uprise shouldn’t be an issue and certainly shouldn’t in itself be enough to bring in, for instance, lockdown changes. We don’t do so when more people die from flu around this time of year. The only issue is if it becomes unmanageable. At the moment, no sign of that. And we’ve got the nightingale hospitals completely empty ready for use (mostly) still if necessary. Plenty of reason for optimism. 

What I have said is that once we get community spread even within young people, there with likely be several generations of viral infection within that age group and it will then start to pass into the older and more vulnerable age groups, as that happens we will see more hospitalisations and deaths. I still stand by that, there is no research that I am aware of that shows the virus has become less virulent. The hope in all this is that many of the infections will result from a lower infective dose due to improved hygiene and hence the severity of the disease will be less. We will have to see. 

[Aggy 752]

13 minutes ago, Van wink said:

What I have said is that once we get community spread even within young people, there with likely be several generations of viral infection within that age group and it will then start to pass into the older and more vulnerable age groups, as that happens we will see more hospitalisations and deaths. I still stand by that, there is no research that I am aware of that shows the virus has become less virulent. The hope in all this is that many of the infections will result from a lower infective dose due to improved hygiene and hence the severity of the disease will be less. We will have to see. 

I don’t understand your theory about why it will spread into elder and vulnerable people. Why is the viral generation relevant?
 

Are you saying it is spreading to the elderly already but isn’t affecting them as much anymore and might do so more when it mutates? And if so, why are young people relevant?

Edited September 14, 2020 by Aggy

[Van wink 2,994]

Evidence from the the states is that where younger people are infected the virus will pass amongst that age group for several cycles of infection or generations, it will then begin to move out from that group and infect older people.

 

[Aggy 752]

20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Evidence from the the states is that where younger people are infected the virus will pass amongst that age group for several cycles of infection or generations, it will then begin to move out from that group and infect older people.

 

How? Have you got a link to some info?

I don’t understand the link between the viral generation and spread.

I can understand that as it goes through generations and mutates it might become “stronger” and therefore more greatly affects people (which will usually have more of an impact on elderly people than young, as you see with flu - it’s not that young people don’t get flu, it’s that it is shrugged off by the immune system of youngsters far more easily. We predict the wrong strand of flu in the flu jab and youngsters who don’t ever get a jab are equally affected but more elderly people die).

But I can’t understand how it apparently chooses not to infect older people for a few generations and then decides to spread to them. Far more likely, I would have thought, is that it’s simply a case of it spreading quicker amongst youngsters (who are not self shielding) and it having had enough time to get through a few generations before it gets to those shielding - but it likely would have got there eventually regardless of the viral generation. 

Edited September 14, 2020 by Aggy

[Surfer 1,547]

More breaking news from the States... Mormons are immune from the Virus. Well we already knew Southern Californian Republicans think they are hence the major spike in cases before the Governor mandated masks ... many of these arguments are QAnon conspiracy theories. 

https://twitter.com/keithedwards/status/1305620707053723648

 

[Well b back 3,190]

1 hour ago, Aggy said:

Are we underreporting deaths and hospital admissions as well? 

It seems so. Below are the latest from the Oxford App they feel there are at least 5,000 positives a day at the moment. The NY Times (  who on our Come On Sarah Thread we have got to trust ) are reporting a backlog of 185,000 results, which have had to be sent to Europe as we cannot cope. There are also indications that there are at least double the tested number unable to book a test and then just give up.

 

[Well b back 3,190]

2 hours ago, Aggy said:

Are we underreporting deaths and hospital admissions as well? 

It seems so. Below are the latest from the Oxford App they feel there are at least 5,000 positives a day at the moment. The NY Times (  who on our Come On Sarah Thread we have got to trust ) are reporting a backlog of 185,000 results, which have had to be sent to Europe as we cannot cope. There are also indications that there are at least double the tested number unable to book a test and then just give up.

 

[Well b back 3,190]

For those thinking ( or hoping ) the virus is less lethal, here is some news from parts of France.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54151281

[Aggy 752]

8 minutes ago, Well b back said:

It seems so. Below are the latest from the Oxford App they feel there are at least 5,000 positives a day at the moment. The NY Times (  who on our Come On Sarah Thread we have got to trust ) are reporting a backlog of 185,000 results, which have had to be sent to Europe as we cannot cope. There are also indications that there are at least double the tested number unable to book a test and then just give up.

 

So which bit of that relates to,hospital admissions or deaths?

[Aggy 752]

8 minutes ago, Well b back said:

For those thinking ( or hoping ) the virus is less lethal, here is some news from parts of France.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54151281

So what bit of that shows the virus is not less lethal?