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2 hours ago, Herman said:

Where's safer Dr. Ricardo. North Norfolk or the South Coast (Hastings/Rye area)?

NN coast has been horrendous, too many visitors this summer, but I’m over near Sandringham for a few days and all of a sudden it’s bliss again, I’m sure that’s reflected across the whole of the coast atm, great time to visit.

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

NN coast has been horrendous, too many visitors this summer, but I’m over near Sandringham for a few days and all of a sudden it’s bliss again, I’m sure that’s reflected across the whole of the coast atm, great time to visit.

My mate's mum lives over Hemsby way somewhere and he wasn't too impressed when he visited. More to do with the attitudes of people and their lack of concern for anybody's health that annoyed him. He forbade his children from going anywhere near the arcades after seeing the state of them.😀

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5 hours ago, ricardo said:

Similar figures to yesterday

Latest UK Numbers  2919 - 14

Inpatients  837

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1434 - 14

France 8577 - 30

Spain   8866  - 34

Germany  1393  - 1

 

Good to see Spain deaths back down. Quite a big jump back down. France stable. That’s going to be the key over the winter months - don’t get hysterical if the deaths do go up a bit (because they will, like flu deaths go up every winter) and just make sure it doesn’t get uncontrollable. 

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5 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Good luck to Sweden - the more data points the better - you might question if it's 'ethical' to deliberately go for herd immunity though. Are the deaths worth it?

Our lockdown wasn’t intended to stop every death remember, so “are the deaths worth it” is a bit of an unfair question.

If there wasn’t a very real risk that our hospitals would be flooded (as happened for a thankfully fairly short period of time) then we wouldn’t have had lockdown either.

Edited by Aggy

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6 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Interesting thoughts.   There is something about Sweden though.  Everywhere else in Europe is seeing cases rise dnd I think the same is largely true  of deaths (albeit on a  much smaller scale).   Sweden is seeing the  opposite, what makes them the exception ?

As to immunity lasting only 3 months, if that were the case then we might as well give up completely and just accept that out time is limited...

Except your time isn’t limited (except in the more general case that, yes, you will die of something eventually). Firstly you aren’t guaranteed to get it. Secondly the large large majority who do get it won’t die from it. We haven’t got immunity to “normal” flu or all sorts of bugs that go round - lots of infectious things kill people, but we don’t think “our time is limited” and live our entire lives in fear because x thousand people died last year from flu.

Edited by Aggy

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1 hour ago, Aggy said:

Except your time isn’t limited (except in the more general case that, yes, you will die of something eventually). Firstly you aren’t guaranteed to get it. Secondly the large large majority who do get it won’t die from it. We haven’t got immunity to “normal” flu or all sorts of bugs that go round - lots of infectious things kill people, but we don’t think “our time is limited” and live our entire lives in fear because x thousand people died last year from flu.

I think ygat was the point i was making.   If we don't have long run immunity to this strain there is literally no point in hiding from it.  But I believe we will have long term immunity

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15 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

I would rather have a pasty than the crabs😀

We get our pasty’s by post, ten at a time, loverly😁

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BREAKING: India reports 96,760 new coronavirus cases, the biggest daily figure anywhere in the world since the pandemic began......poor souls

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54 minutes ago, Van wink said:

BREAKING: India reports 96,760 new coronavirus cases, the biggest daily figure anywhere in the world since the pandemic began......poor souls

They are the ones they know about, reckon it’s double that

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21 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

They are the ones they know about, reckon it’s double that

Yep spot on 👍

Edited by Van wink

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Reports indicate R rate is now 1.7 nationwide.

In other news, we may copy Belgium's approach (10pm curfews) but some Tory ministers are unhappy.

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8 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Reports indicate R rate is now 1.7 nationwide.

In other news, we may copy Belgium's approach (10pm curfews) but some Tory ministers are unhappy.

Imperial estimating 1.7 I believe, it’s amazing how quickly it can get hold  once it’s started passing through the population again, a few generations of infection and we’re off.

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1.7 seems to equate to a doubling every 7 or 8 days from what I've understood. In the previous peak R was around 3 I recall (doubling every 3 days or so). Today's figures then might be in the mid 3000s.☹️

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25 minutes ago, sonyc said:

1.7 seems to equate to a doubling every 7 or 8 days from what I've understood. In the previous peak R was around 3 I recall (doubling every 3 days or so). Today's figures then might be in the mid 3000s.☹️

Ricky will be along shortly no doubt 😀

3539.....spot on

Edited by Van wink

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28 minutes ago, sonyc said:

1.7 seems to equate to a doubling every 7 or 8 days from what I've understood. In the previous peak R was around 3 I recall (doubling every 3 days or so). Today's figures then might be in the mid 3000s.☹️

Correct but France and Spain going haywire

Latest UK Numbers  3539 - 6

Inpatients  863 up from 837

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1597 - 10

France 9843 - 19

Spain   10764  - 71

Germany  1758  - 9

 

Note also 50k more test yesterday in UK now 227k so positives still under 2%

Edited by ricardo

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3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Correct but France and Spain going haywire

Latest UK Numbers  3539 - 6

Inpatients  863 up from 837

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1597 - 10

France 9843 - 19

Spain   10764  - 71

Germany  1758  - 9

 

Note also 50k more test yesterday in UK now 227k

We are behind though by a few weeks. I think it's a fairly safe bet to suggest we will be reaching 8000/9000 fairly soon if we follow those trajectories. Hospitalisation is key isn't it. Though I note those numbers are increasing too. Let's hope we can keep the more vulnerable communities better protected via policy, behaviour, testing.

Do you believe in those "Moonshot" numbers Ricardo? 1m tests per day by December? Then more in 2021. Scientists have poured scorn or perhaps I should say, have tempered those figures with a degree of scepticism. Hope we can increase numbers for the sake of the economy. (Unsure myself though if £100bn is a good use of money for untried and unknown reliability of saliva tests). I even agreed with Hartley Brewer (there's always a first) when she suggested money like that should be used on cancer and other non Covid treatments and the backlog 

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First hospital death in Cornwall since late June.

Grandson had a test on Wednesday as he had the symptoms after a weekend trip to Windsor to see his Dad. Think he may just be a bit rundown but we aren't taking any chances until the result is negative.

Golf trip to Ashbury (16 of us) in October looking less likely. Easy to keep distance on the course but meals and evenings could affect the outcome.

 

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1 minute ago, sonyc said:

We are behind though by a few weeks. I think it's a fairly safe bet to suggest we will be reaching 8000/9000 fairly soon if we follow those trajectories. Hospitalisation is key isn't it. Though I note those numbers are increasing too. Let's hope we can keep the more vulnerable communities better protected via policy, behaviour, testing.

Do you believe in those "Moonshot" numbers Ricardo? 1m tests per day by December? Then more in 2021. Scientists have poured scorn or perhaps I should say, have tempered those figures with a degree of scepticism. Hope we can increase numbers for the sake of the economy. (Unsure myself though if £100bn is a good use of money for untried and unknown reliability of saliva tests). I even agreed with Hartley Brewer (there's always a first) when she suggested money like that should be used on cancer and other non Covid treatments and the backlog 

The history of action during the crisis would suggest £100Bn is likely to be a waste.

Hartley Brewer being conciliatory recently. Has she had an epiphany?

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3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

The history of action during the crisis would suggest £100Bn is likely to be a waste.

Hartley Brewer being conciliatory recently. Has she had an epiphany?

She is someone who simply wants the economy opened up fully and likens C19 with flu. There is an argument there but unsure if I sign up to it fully. Yet, for sure, I can see an argument for that kind of resource going towards folk in waiting lists, for scans etc.

I'm like you perhaps, you'll be thinking that the government (Hancock) picks out big numbers and announces them before capacity is built. It is rather a distraction. I'm a bit old fashioned. Even in my job before when we had really good news to announce I was less keen on crowing about it. These days this lot seem to use phrases like 'world beating' when it's not even been in operation long. They need to over-perform first.

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Oxford and City college London predicted ( to the government ) this exact outcome if they stuck with changing the message in July. Worryingly they are telling the government what’s going to happen if other things don’t change, and all but saying I wonder if we will be listened to this time.

In 2 weeks time we will be at the point of no return as people ( and uni campuses ) go out for one last big party.  

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We live outside Birmingham so won’t be part of their lockdown ( although of course we can visit none of our relatives and friends that live in Birmingham ). We have just driven through Birmingham and wish we had videoed some of what we saw. Full buses with about 50 % in face masks, kids leaving school congregating in large numbers ( way over 30 ), hugging and absolutely no social distancing. We are being told about schools all over being closed with outbreaks.
This is probably more worrying than the initial outbreak as there won’t be another lockdown and unlike last time this means there will be no means of stopping it.

Worrying times.

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6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

She is someone who simply wants the economy opened up fully and likens C19 with flu. There is an argument there but unsure if I sign up to it fully. Yet, for sure, I can see an argument for that kind of resource going towards folk in waiting lists, for scans etc.

I'm like you perhaps, you'll be thinking that the government (Hancock) picks out big numbers and announces them before capacity is built. It is rather a distraction. I'm a bit old fashioned. Even in my job before when we had really good news to announce I was less keen on crowing about it. These days this lot seem to use phrases like 'world beating' when it's not even been in operation long. They need to over-perform first.

We can speculate for hours about the easing of lockdown despite the historical evidence that these types of virus don't go away.

Forget any systems. forget testing. What caused the downturn was lockdown and the overall attitude of the UK public. That is no longer the case and the predictions are correct.

In fact there was never anything to crow about. We can leave that to Trump.

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Here’s a stat for Ricardo. Although the government are saying the R rate is between 1 and 1.2 the experts are saying it’s actually 1.7, according to The Evening Standard ?

Covid-19 infections 'doubling every seven to eight days' as experts fear R rate could be 1.7

 

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54 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

We can speculate for hours about the easing of lockdown despite the historical evidence that these types of virus don't go away.

Forget any systems. forget testing. What caused the downturn was lockdown and the overall attitude of the UK public. That is no longer the case and the predictions are correct.

In fact there was never anything to crow about. We can leave that to Trump.

Well, as it looks like it's going to get tough again, let's hope the government makes a better fist of managing and communicating.

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Oxford and City college London predicted ( to the government ) this exact outcome if they stuck with changing the message in July. Worryingly they are telling the government what’s going to happen if other things don’t change, and all but saying I wonder if we will be listened to this time.

In 2 weeks time we will be at the point of no return as people ( and uni campuses ) go out for one last big party.  

I knew people had short memories but it’s been fascinating to watch how quickly something even as horrific as what was happening earlier in the year seems to have been wiped from the consciousness of so many. I would never have believed it but now we know how shallow our collective concern and memory can be. And to think people were talking  about how this pandemic may be an agent for change, there really is little hope for any global movements for change, the world will need to be burning down around our ears before we try to take real action, the big challenges we face require preemptive remedial measures, we are only capable of action when it’s too late. Feeling  depressed🙁

Edited by Van wink

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11 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I knew people had short memories but it’s been fascinating to watch how quickly something even as horrific as what was happening earlier in the year seems to have been wiped from the consciousness of so many. I would never have believed it but now we know how shallow our collective concern and memory can be. And to think people were talking  about how this pandemic may be an agent for change, there really is little hope for any global movements for change, the world will need to be burning down around our ears before we try to take real action, the big challenges we face require preemptive remedial measures, we are only capable of action when it’s too late. Feeling  depressed🙁

I was certainly one for being hopeful of some positive change. Yet, we don't seem to have much vision as a country. If we do what is it? Just to be out of Europe? That seems to be the thrust. There needs to be a far greater move towards something the whole country can get behind.

Dreaming as ever. 🤔

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