Corona Virus main thread

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

It will be 2 months tomorrow since a hospital death in Cornwall which considering our population has probably the highest rate of elderly is good news.

Plus the usual summer invasion which should have meant a spike but hasn't. (Don't get any ideas of moving👹)

The downside is that for some reason, those in charge of our charitable air Ambulance, have decided that the creep that is Gordon Ramsay is the face of raising money. The same creep who after enraging us by doing a Cummings down here and cleared off after moaning about nosey Cornish.

 

[T 190]

If you just ignore one of the worst death rates and economic and the complete shambles of the Brexit government and select a few convenient statistics then the UK is on a par with Germany. But you would have to be a despicable shamelessly apology of a human being to ignore that if. 

[Barbe bleu 823]

16 minutes ago, T said:

If you just ignore one of the worst death rates and economic and the complete shambles of the Brexit government and select a few convenient statistics then the UK is on a par with Germany. But you would have to be a despicable shamelessly apology of a human being to ignore that if. 

We've been over the history plenty and no doubt will again,  but in terms of the present I think its entirety fair to say that we are largely on a par with Germany right now and probably better off than most of our peers. 

For some on here that's very reassuring. 

[Jools 584]

On 27/08/2020 at 23:18, Jools said:

Except it isn't 50,000 it's 41,477 and as I clearly stated in my previous post that you clearly didn't bother to read, the numbers of deaths ‘WITH COVID’ have been overstated by the authorities -- To what extent we don't yet know...

In 2014, 46,000 people died of flu, btw --- The majority of them had underlying health problems --- Does that make you think? No! Okay, how about this: In 1969, 80,000 people in the UK died from flu -- The country wasn't shutdown. 

Has a decent human being like yourself considered the deaths caused by the lockdown? No! I have, and I can tell you it's killing more people than the virus.

Decency? You Lefties don't know the meaning of the word.

Further to the above in bold:  Scroll down to table 3 --- https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3-wrg3tTKK5-9tOHPGAHWFVO3DfslkJ0KsDEPQpWmPbKtp6EsoVV2Qs1Q

 

Comorbidities

Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups. 

 

So the CDC are admitting that 94% of “COVID-19 Deaths” in the US had Other Causes/Conditions 🤔

 

[Surfer 1,547]

OK Jools I will play your game.... 

YOu say that only 6% of the deaths were recorded by the supervising physician as exclusively due to Covid. 

i.e. 94% of those who died have one or more conditions. 

So whether Covid is a problem or not I guess depends on whether you have another condition eh? 

If 80% of the population did, is that be a problem? How about 60%, 40% - when is it NOT a problem?

The fact is the people who died, died. And they died while being infected with Covid. 

Take Covid away and would they have died? As we don't have enough data to say one way or the other the only sensible way to look at this is the excess deaths recorded over a time period. 

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-excess-deaths-uk-figures.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53592881

At some point, and it may have already happened, the excess deaths may turn negative as Covid cases decline, but then may increase again as the real adverse effects of suppressing Covid show up as deaths from the causes whose treatment was delayed etc. 

[T 190]

9 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

We've been over the history plenty and no doubt will again,  but in terms of the present I think its entirety fair to say that we are largely on a par with Germany right now and probably better off than most of our peers. 

For some on here that's very reassuring. 

Sure I understand some people should be very feeling very guilty if they have any decency and are clutching at straws. But it is no reassurance for people who have lost loved ones and work and for those that care about anyone apart from themselves. No rational person should be reassured that the UK is led by an irrational ideological Brexit government with one of the worst health and economic records in the world. They are incompetent to govern the country and need to be replaced. 

i watch the News in both countries and there is just no way the track and trace and organisation is on a par. Not unless you think that a non league team and Bayern Munich are on a Par   But I can totally understand that if you are more concerned about the nationalistic government that you supported than people’s lives you could delude yourselves that things are on a par. 

Edited September 1, 2020 by T

[Yellow Fever 3,771]

11 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

We've been over the history plenty and no doubt will again,  but in terms of the present I think its entirety fair to say that we are largely on a par with Germany right now and probably better off than most of our peers. 

For some on here that's very reassuring. 

Be careful comparing with Germany. It's premature!

Their schools went back about 3 weeks ago!

We are yet to play that little experiment - result known by about end of this month in case figures.

[T 190]

Germany has a lot more comprehensive test and trace system and local monitoring   and restriction system and a decent leader and political system so if anyone thinks UK is anyway on a par they are delusional.
 

I like Boris as a comedy turn and chief bike monitor but if anyone thinks Brexit is a good idea then they are not intelligent enough to be leader in a crisis and so it has proved. 

[Barbe bleu 823]

24 minutes ago, T said:

Germany has a lot more comprehensive test and trace system and local monitoring   and restriction system and a decent leader and political system so if anyone thinks UK is anyway on a par they are delusional.
 

I dont want to get into a fight on this but is your analysis on track and trace or general infection and progression rates based on evidence?

A lot of people are taking comfort from the apparent lull we are currently experiencing.  Sure it might only be temporary given the schools and universities go back soon and the days are only getting shorter  but I would ask you not to kick over the sandcastles they might be building unless it is supported.

 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,771]

I just saw this in the Guardian - 

Tony Abbott, the former Australian prime minister tipped to become a UK trade envoy, has railed against Covid “health dictatorships”, saying politicians need to balance allowing more elderly Covid patients to die by nature taking its course, with the economic costs of an extreme lockdown.

He said it was costing the Australian government as much as $200,000 (£110,000) to give an elderly person an extra year’s life, substantially beyond what governments would usually pay for life-saving drugs.

He said not enough politicians were “behaving like health economists trained to pose uncomfortable questions about the level of deaths we might have to live with”.

 

Now, from a purely actuarial perspective - if we 'let it rip' we could say 'remove' naturally say 50% of the over 70's perhaps by Christmas - that would save a fortune - and then we could save billions more per year by trying to stay in the EU - given that the very same cohort are largely Brexit supporters too. I would guess it would be 60/40 plus by Christmas for staying in if they were absent! A slam dunk.

Now given Abbotts ideas  - I'm really sure the modal over 65 'Brexit/Tory' supporter will think this is an excellent way forward! Let it rip.

Light 'blue' touchpaper - stand well clear. Bang!

Edited September 1, 2020 by Yellow Fever
Turkeys and Christmas come to mind....

[ricardo 7,384]

Todays UK numbers 1295  (deaths 3), a little over 0.6% so still no uptick.

For comparison yesterdays numbers for our major European neighbours 

Germany 1497 - 5

France 3082 - 29

Spain 2489 - 28

Italy 996 - 6

Nothing you could call a major explosion as yet.

[sonyc 5,511]

14 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Todays UK numbers 1295  (deaths 3), a little over 0.6% so still no uptick.

For comparison yesterdays numbers for our major European neighbours 

Germany 1497 - 5

France 3082 - 29

Spain 2489 - 28

Italy 996 - 6

Nothing you could call a major explosion as yet.

It's more reassuring that the trend is not sharply upward. 

[ricardo 7,384]

9 minutes ago, sonyc said:

It's more reassuring that the trend is not sharply upward. 

I would guess all countries have learnt a thing or two in the past 5 months. Also the populace is more aware and apart from the minority of usual idiots, is taking appropriate measures re hygene and social distancing etc.

I have also seen some recent work suggesting the CFR is below 0.5% and is continuing to fall. Whether this is due to a weakening of the virus, better treatments, more social awareness or the fact that the super vulnerable have already been taken is an arguable point.

Edited September 1, 2020 by ricardo

[Bill 1,788]

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

I would guess all countries have learnt a thing or two in the past 5 months. Also the populace is more aware and apart from the minority of usual idiots, is taking appropriate measures re hygene and social distancing etc.

I have also seen some recent work suggesting the CFR is below 0.5% and is continuing to fall. Whether this is due to a weakening of the virus, better treatments, more social awareness or the fact that the super vulnerable have already been taken is an arguable point.

you need to get out a bit more

social distancing is pretty much ignored, just as the wearing of fancy dress - the only evidence of either of those two are where it is enforced.... not through personal choice

the view seems to be that it has either already killed those it would have killed, and will now kill off a few that it missed

most folk recognise that they have likely been exposed to the virus umpteen times and are still alive, so it is OK

simply peddling your wish will not make it happen

 

ps take a look at the percentage who it is believed were dementia sufferers who died

[Barbe bleu 823]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

you need to get out a bit more

social distancing is pretty much ignored, just as the wearing of fancy dress - the only evidence of either of those two are where it is enforced.... not through personal choice

the view seems to be that it has either already killed those it would have killed, and will now kill off a few that it missed

most folk recognise that they have likely been exposed to the virus umpteen times and are still alive, so it is OK

simply peddling your wish will not make it happen

 

ps take a look at the percentage who it is believed were dementia sufferers who died

I'm not sure I follow this to be honest. I think you are suggesting that distancing and face mask rules are making little difference to spread as they are not being observed and that we have passed the worst of it.  

This would definitely make you one of the most optimistic voices on this thread. Surprising for sure but good on you for challenging your own views.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,771]

All I see is complacency and apathy by the general public and wishful thinking by the government. Only the scientists seem to be ringing rhe alarm bells and possibly Sturgeon as of tonight.

[Bill 1,788]

14 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm not sure I follow this to be honest. I think you are suggesting that distancing and face mask rules are making little difference to spread as they are not being observed and that we have passed the worst of it.  

This would definitely make you one of the most optimistic voices on this thread. Surprising for sure but good on you for challenging your own views.

evening hand crank

- good to see my posting has brought you back

and still lying and misrepresenting as usual

however my pointing out others behaviour and attitude towards something, does not mean I either endorse or practice what they do

but then, where would you be without such activity ?

 

ps pointing out you misrepresenting does not mean I endorse it 😉

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

22 hours ago, Surfer said:

OK Jools I will play your game.... 

YOu say that only 6% of the deaths were recorded by the supervising physician as exclusively due to Covid. 

i.e. 94% of those who died have one or more conditions. 

So whether Covid is a problem or not I guess depends on whether you have another condition eh? 

If 80% of the population did, is that be a problem? How about 60%, 40% - when is it NOT a problem?

The fact is the people who died, died. And they died while being infected with Covid. 

Take Covid away and would they have died? As we don't have enough data to say one way or the other the only sensible way to look at this is the excess deaths recorded over a time period. 

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-excess-deaths-uk-figures.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53592881

At some point, and it may have already happened, the excess deaths may turn negative as Covid cases decline, but then may increase again as the real adverse effects of suppressing Covid show up as deaths from the causes whose treatment was delayed etc. 

It's not really a problem when those dieing are aged 80+. It's sad but had they caught influenza and died then no one would be urging a lockdown of the economy. Yet here we are six months on with better information, better testing and tracing and better knowledge of how to deal with covid-19 infections it's time to stop being scaredy-cats and get back to normal living for the majority. Those with conditions and aged that need to shield will have to learn how to adjust their lives to deal with covid-19 just as they learn to adjust their lives to whatever ails them.

I have a condition and at an age where I need to shield, while my wife goes out to work and mixes with the general public. It would be selfish of me to expect her to become economically inactive for my sake, and I can't expect others to remain economically inactive either. It's me, the shielder who has to take responsibility for my situation. 

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

On 31/08/2020 at 10:49, A Load of Squit said:

Paxman on on what we've learned from the crisis.

Is this the male version of a 'Karen'?

[T 190]

18 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I dont want to get into a fight on this but is your analysis on track and trace or general infection and progression rates based on evidence?

A lot of people are taking comfort from the apparent lull we are currently experiencing.  Sure it might only be temporary given the schools and universities go back soon and the days are only getting shorter  but I would ask you not to kick over the sandcastles they might be building unless it is supported.

 

 

I follow the news in both countries and have seen test and trace in action in Germany from back in February. It is sysstematic in Germany run by existing local health professionals  
 

There is a comprehensive testing programmes at the borders. There is comprehensive testing readily and quickly available. There is an app.  There is a map of the country on the main news outlet showing the number of daily cases per municipality with automatic restrictions above a threshold. There is a competent government and functional healthcare system. I am therefore far more comfortable that Germany is picking up and dealing with a greater proportion of cases.

I’m not sure how many deaths you want and how much hit to GDP you want before you believe that the UK has an incompetent government. I’ve always said that I do think UK is trying to do the right things but Germany is doing it quicker and more systematically with people following the rules more backed up by a better education system, a better healthcare system, better infrastructure, a better political system and better leaders.  The UK needs an urgent enquiry and a review and benchmarking of its fundamental structures.  Brexit merely highlights that there is a fundamental problem  with the education and political system. Covid has highlighted how the UK is systematically and fundamentally behind other countries.
 

No wonder the desperation to hang onto some some lyrics because Britannia doesn’t rule the waves and it is not the land of hope and glory and won’t be until it moves on from the past and fundamentally reforms. 

[A Load of Squit 5,161]

7 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Is this the male version of a 'Karen'?

No, you don't understand what you're talking about.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

Quite a few shifts popping up now.

 

 

Edited September 2, 2020 by Van wink

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

33 minutes ago, T said:

I follow the news in both countries and have seen test and trace in action in Germany from back in February. It is sysstematic in Germany run by existing local health professionals  
 

There is a comprehensive testing programmes at the borders. There is comprehensive testing readily and quickly available. There is an app.  There is a map of the country on the main news outlet showing the number of daily cases per municipality with automatic restrictions above a threshold. There is a competent government and functional healthcare system. I am therefore far more comfortable that Germany is picking up and dealing with a greater proportion of cases.

I’m not sure how many deaths you want and how much hit to GDP you want before you believe that the UK has an incompetent government. I’ve always said that I do think UK is trying to do the right things but Germany is doing it quicker and more systematically with people following the rules more backed up by a better education system, a better healthcare system, better infrastructure, a better political system and better leaders.  The UK needs an urgent enquiry and a review and benchmarking of its fundamental structures.  Brexit merely highlights that there is a fundamental problem  with the education and political system. Covid has highlighted how the UK is systematically and fundamentally behind other countries.
 

No wonder the desperation to hang onto some some lyrics because Britannia doesn’t rule the waves and it is not the land of hope and glory and won’t be until it moves on from the past and fundamentally reforms. 

Agree with nearly all that, and surely the fact that we have an incompetent government isn't even a debating point any more - it is very clearly evident and well-documented.

The one disagreement I have with the above is that I don't believe the UK (if by UK you mean the Government) is trying to do the right things - I could quote plenty of examples of why but actually test and trace is probably as an good example as any. Right from the start of the process there was an outcry from both public health experts and technical experts that the the Government's plans were totally and fundamentmentally flawed - their technical design of the app was just plain wrong and ultimately they had abandon it as unworkable and start again following the design that countries all around the world had adopted at the start. Secondly they completely ignored the advice from our existing public health professionals that tracing needed to be local and should in fact be based on our local tracing public health systems already in place (as Germany was already doing). Again the government approach failed catastrophically and has now been significanlty modified but only after spending billions with private sector firms who frankly hadn't got a clue what they were doing and for many crucial weeks ran a dysfunctional process which even now in its modified form is still a long way off the performance Johnson promised would be achieved by mid-May.

And let's be clear, none of this is hindsight - there was a great deal of advice available and a great deal of discussion in the UK about these issues at the time but the government ignored it all - in my book that doesn't amount to them trying to do the right things.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

11 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

A significant failing and typical of a “ we know best” ideology which runs roughshod over the views of local professionals. T and T is undoubtedly  best done at a local level.

Edited September 2, 2020 by Van wink

[Barbe bleu 823]

9 hours ago, Bill said:

 

however my pointing out others behaviour and attitude towards something, does not mean I either endorse or practice what they do

ps pointing out you misrepresenting does not mean I endorse it 😉

OK,    you said that people are ignoring distancing and mask wearing rules and advice.  This statement raises a question of 'so what?'   

To be fair to you the 'so what' of your post was not addressed within it.   So I'll put it as a question  to you.  If rules are being largely ignored why is it that infection rates are not in exponential growth?  

[Yellow Fever 3,771]

1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

OK,    you said that people are ignoring distancing and mask wearing rules and advice.  This statement raises a question of 'so what?'   

To be fair to you the 'so what' of your post was not addressed within it.   So I'll put it as a question  to you.  If rules are being largely ignored why is it that infection rates are not in exponential growth?  

BB - They probably are in certain communities (exponential can still appear slow from a small base, it's not 'rate' either - 'R' is dimensionless) - and clearly is now in danger of breaking out into the general larger population (hence the lockdowns as in Glasgow last night). Think about Banham Poultry by example - 100 + infections (frm circa 400 employees ?).

[Barbe bleu 823]

59 minutes ago, Van wink said:

A significant failing and typical of a “ we know best” ideology which runs roughshod over the views of local professionals. T and T is undoubtedly  best done at a local level.

 The problem with this of course is that there isn't really a history of integrated public health services at a local level.  We talk about 'directors of public health' like they have army of professional health workers below them who have been kept idle.  I am not sure that this in anyway reflects the reality.

I'm actually agnostic about how a call centre trace and track is organised and dont suppose it really matters where the agent is calling from or who employs them. 

 What does need to happen (if it is not) is the sharing of data with someone empowered to make locally based decisions. For instance if a factory has a breakout who shuts that down and shuts the pub down the road as well?  A centralised system  is very good at aggregate data but ill-equipped at analysising and reacting to data at the micro level and this is what we need now.

Edited September 2, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Tetteys Jig 830]

Id say its more about the frontline team as to why T and T is better at local level. People who know the area, know the people etc rather than, say me picking up the phone and trying to speak to someone from Bristol or somewhere to trace their contacts and where they have been given i have never been there.

I worked in logistics at the council when redesigning the bin rounds and having the drivers involved was one of the most important things we did.

[Barbe bleu 823]

1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Id say its more about the frontline team as to why T and T is better at local level. People who know the area, know the people etc rather than, say me picking up the phone and trying to speak to someone from Bristol or somewhere to trace their contacts and where they have been given i have never been there.

I worked in logistics at the council when redesigning the bin rounds and having the drivers involved was one of the most important things we did.

Yes.   That's a fair point.   Local knowledge could be a real help in spotting  trends and focal points. 

Down side is that if everything is designed and managed locally you are asking something like 250 local authorities with little practical experience at scale to design their own T&T schemes, resource them and then integrate them on a regional and national basis. 

The solution to this is that the scheme is built nationally and then pushed downwards along with the authority to make decisions to meet local circumstances. 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

3 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

 The problem with this of course is that there isn't really a history of integrated public health services at a local level.  We talk about 'directors of public health' like they have army of professional health workers below them who have been kept idle.  I am not sure that this in anyway reflects the reality.

I'm actually agnostic about how a call centre trace and track is organised and dont suppose it really matters where the agent is calling from or who employs them. 

 What does need to happen (if it is not) is the sharing of data with someone empowered to make locally based decisions. For instance if a factory has a breakout who shuts that down and shuts the pub down the road as well?  A centralised system  is very good at aggregate data but ill-equipped at analysising and reacting to data at the micro level and this is what we need now.

Can’t agree on your first point. Having been involved in the past with investigations of  outbreaks we have had capacity and an integrated approach within the resource of the DPH. Outbreaks don’t recognise LA or Health Authority boundaries and in my experience cross boundary working has been a successful and essential part of local infection control with Public Health England or from my day I seem to recall the Centre for Communicable Disease Control or others taking the strategic overview.
As for the idle army of professional health workers, despite the cuts to  local government LA’s do still employ EHO’s who have wide ranging responsibilities but it would be quite possible to shift their focus during an outbreak to create increased resources, The government has now promised to provide resource to the local systems from the centre, but from listening to Andy Burnham this morning sadly this has still not happened.

Local T and T is undoubtedly better than a national call, local knowledge is an important part of assisting contacts to provide information about places visited and potential for spread.

Fully agree on the need for data sharing.