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15 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I hope you’re right Aggy. I was expecting to see a substantial rise in daily figures in the UK by now, with associated hospital admissions, thankfully we are not seeing it as yet. We must also be seeing an increased level of community immunity as time progresses, at some stage that will become significant. Fingers crossed.

I  oticed that the number of hospital admissions is on the links that ricardo provides. Has anyone spotted the trend on these? 178 on today's 

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27 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Grassroots Football can return in September and possibly Rugby in October. There are no protocols only guidance, which is just not going to be adhered to. Imagine how many millions that entails? And after each match and midweek training etc

So I am completely at a loss why there is a debate about schools and hospitality. I see them as far easier to control than grassroots sport.

Grassroots clubs are already playing friendlies KG, and have been for a couple of weeks I think.I believe our local club had a grant from Norfolk FA to assist with Covid preparations. Also policies like showering and changing at home.

Edited by Van wink

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19 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I  oticed that the number of hospital admissions is on the links that ricardo provides. Has anyone spotted the trend on these? 178 on today's 

From the graph they appear to be flat or marginally down.

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15 minutes ago, Van wink said:

From the graph they appear to be flat or marginally down.

It's not 178 it's 128 and has steadily come down.

Those in hospital have come down from 30k to 930.

 

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2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

It's not 178 it's 128 and has steadily come down.

Those in hospital have come down from 30k to 930.

 

It’s encouraging and the sooner we understand why the better it will be.

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Thanks to her brilliant running of the track and trace system, Dido Harding is to be promoted to run the new, improved PHE.🤨

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56 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Grassroots clubs are already playing friendlies KG, and have been for a couple of weeks I think.I believe our local club had a grant from Norfolk FA to assist with Covid preparations. Also policies like showering and changing at home.

Rugby players have to get showered at home but 30 guys can be on a pitch together rubbing faces?  And thats before refs and subs.

Can't help thinking that the shower bit might be window dressing

 

 

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22 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'd be interested to hear from aggy and ricardo on this.

We should be seeing the effect of Scottish schools opening soon i guess which could inform English policy but with proposed re openings happening soon we might not have too much to go on before decisions need to be taken.

My view is that if there is a trade off it must be in favour of schools and that we might not have the data to make an informed decision by the time one is due which means an instinctual approach is required.

That being said surely we know what level of spread is caused by school children by now!

 

 

I know you didn't say you would be interested to hear from me, but...................... 🙂

I get the feeling that there is a strong belief that a vaccine will be available from around November so it is a matter of trying to keep everything ticking over and the virus suppressed until then.

Once the vulnerable and the NHS workers are vaccinated, the Government will arrange to quickly and efficiently roll it out to the rest of the population 😉

No, seriously, once a vaccination programme is underway, the pressure comes off and things should improve on an almost daily basis. The key thing is that it will give people confidence to move forward again and maybe we can start to get back to "normality" - even given that the "new normality" might be slightly different.

Edited by Mark .Y.
Spelt normality wrong....twice !!

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2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

I know you didn't say you would be interested to hear from me, but...................... 🙂

I get the feeling that there is a strong belief that a vaccine will be available from around November so it is a matter of trying to keep everything ticking over and the virus suppressed until then.

Once the vulnerable and the NHS workers are vaccinated, the Government will arrange to quickly and efficiently roll it out to the rest of the population 😉

No, seriously, once a vaccination programme is underway, the pressure comes off and things should improve on an almost daily basis. The key thing is that it will give people confidence to move forward again and maybe we can start to get back to "normaility" - even given that the "new normaility" might be slightly different.

ha!  No disrespect intended.

I mentioned aggy and ricardo as they have in the past held opposite and strong views.  But that's not to say that I wasn't interested in yours!

The consensus appears to be that although the data is similar to that we saw in march there is no going back.  The dissenting view is YFs (and to a lesser extent VW) who advocates a very cautious approach. 

No right or wrong answers in this.

As a natural optimist who likes a a data led approach I think I probably agree with the consensus and have faith in our ability to get a working  vaccine where it needs to be before the end of the year....

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49 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

ha!  No disrespect intended.

I mentioned aggy and ricardo as they have in the past held opposite and strong views.  But that's not to say that I wasn't interested in yours!

The consensus appears to be that although the data is similar to that we saw in march there is no going back.  The dissenting view is YFs (and to a lesser extent VW) who advocates a very cautious approach. 

No right or wrong answers in this.

As a natural optimist who likes a a data led approach I think I probably agree with the consensus and have faith in our ability to get a working  vaccine where it needs to be before the end of the year....

Yes I'm cautious - any vaccine (of which I'm quite optimistic as to eventual effectiveness) is however unlikely to be available to the general public (and two doses) until say Christmas / January plus a roll out time. That's frankly too late to stop a resurgence of the virus this autumn and early winter as I believe we are already slowly witnessing with our 'relaxed' approach.

Hence, I'd rather be dammed for being too stringent than too weak (as per wobbly utterly useless Boris) - said the same to Ricardo well before the original lock down (should of been 2 weeks earlier - would of saved 90 % of the deaths and quicker out / less economic damage so was proved right even with hindsight) and was criticized for being a little too draconian / authoritarian! RWNJ is me.

So - if we wish to open the schools in 2 weeks (a must) then be prepared to act !

Take some leadership even if unpopular!

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Fair points YF.  

I suppose we might also argue that if we let it get out of hand in autumn it will render the spring lockdown pointless.

I guess NZ is in this position in an extreme form and in some ways have become a hostage to their early success.

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2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Fair points YF.  

I suppose we might also argue that if we let it get out of hand in autumn it will render the spring lockdown pointless.

I guess NZ is in this position in an extreme form and in some ways have become a hostage to their early success.

Yes - We mustn't undo what we have achieved already with complacency.

A political reality is however is that IF (and a big IF but looks likely as we stand) we get a major resurgence this autumn and the government is forced into a second total lockdown including schools  - politically that i think would be the end of the Johnson government as its position would then be totally untenable with the social and economic damage. Better a further smaller hit and pain now to the govt. than the executioners block later. 

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France 2200, Germany 1100

No real sign of an exponential pick up yet. Perhaps we are now seeing a steady low level transmission kept in check by local action.

Time will tell.

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It does seem that we have come through the worst. There will be cases and maybe even a second wave but the death rate will be nowhere near in comparison.

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47 minutes ago, ricardo said:

France 2200, Germany 1100

No real sign of an exponential pick up yet. Perhaps we are now seeing a steady low level transmission kept in check by local action.

Time will tell.

Social distancing, face covering and good hand hygiene. The messages are hopefully well in place now, from my experience people generally are behaving pretty well, went to a few stores in Norwich today and face coverings was very much the norm.

Return to work and more frequent contact in enclosed environments as Autumn and Winter appear is the real worry. We know how highly infectious this is,

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46 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Social distancing, face covering and good hand hygiene. The messages are hopefully well in place now, from my experience people generally are behaving pretty well, went to a few stores in Norwich today and face coverings was very much the norm.

Return to work and more frequent contact in enclosed environments as Autumn and Winter appear is the real worry. We know how highly infectious this is,

Would have thought those likely to be back physically “in the office” are either already there or won’t be going back over the winter.

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9 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Would have thought those likely to be back physically “in the office” are either already there or won’t be going back over the winter.

Depends on what you do Aggy. Certainly MOJ is returning for some tribunals etc during October November, if all goes to plan.

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3 hours ago, Van wink said:

Depends on what you do Aggy. Certainly MOJ is returning for some tribunals etc during October November, if all goes to plan.

Tribunals and court hearings will be fairly easy to socially distance, and many will remain online. They involve a handful of people - more likely to catch something down the pub. 
 

The issue will be when you’ve got hundreds and thousands of people flocking back to cramped office blocks, communal lifts and lobbies etc.. There may be some going back in the near future, but if employers want people in work, what reason is there for them not to be in already? If employers have not forced people back already, I don’t see why they’d suddenly force people to start going back as we approach flu season.

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many are working from home and so there is little incentive to go back - though what will cause many to go back is the reduction in furlough pay, and it's complete ending on 31st Oct

Use of facemasks is varied - out on the street etc it is almost a rarity - certain specialist shops folk pull out a mask before going in, and the varied supermarkets it is becoming less so around 40% not wearing, and around half of staff similar

as to social distancing that has gone by the board as has sanitising hands and trolleys and without a massive change in behaviour there a few folk sticking on a mask as a requirement of using a shop is pretty futile, that is why so many shop staff have long given up, as a 20 mins or so with a mask on maybe ok, but 8 hours will simply not be enforceable

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Already permanently a WFH person but I can't imagine sitting in a mask for 8 hours in an office, just not viable for an every day office environment without people messing around with them, taking them off etc. and then it defeats the object of bothering. I feel like the masks should be reserved for using in situations where sustained close contact can't be avoided like shops and public transport etc.

Saying that, I can't see what bringing people back from WFH will achieve for many jobs if they have been proven to be doable at home for the last few months, why bother even entertain any risk of spread if you don't have to? We should be lapping up all the non invasive measures we can to slow spread.

The only thing I can think of is that the economy will "suffer" from people not taking expensive train journeys and having to spend £££ on expensive coffee and lunches. Hopefully the start of the end of "big city life" culture

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8 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Already permanently a WFH person but I can't imagine sitting in a mask for 8 hours in an office, just not viable for an every day office environment without people messing around with them, taking them off etc. and then it defeats the object of bothering. I feel like the masks should be reserved for using in situations where sustained close contact can't be avoided like shops and public transport etc.

Saying that, I can't see what bringing people back from WFH will achieve for many jobs if they have been proven to be doable at home for the last few months, why bother even entertain any risk of spread if you don't have to? We should be lapping up all the non invasive measures we can to slow spread.

The only thing I can think of is that the economy will "suffer" from people not taking expensive train journeys and having to spend £££ on expensive coffee and lunches. Hopefully the start of the end of "big city life" culture

More like the friends and family of the current government would lose rents as companies decide they don't need all their office space anymore. I think many will downsize their space and encourage more WFH 

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52 minutes ago, NFN FC said:

More like the friends and family of the current government would lose rents as companies decide they don't need all their office space anymore. I think many will downsize their space and encourage more WFH 

They have been pushing us to move further into the digital age, which is fair enough, only covid has accelerated the process so fast that it is now hurting the people that have been pushing it. Karma? 

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10 minutes ago, Herman said:

They have been pushing us to move further into the digital age, which is fair enough, only covid has accelerated the process so fast that it is now hurting the people that have been pushing it. Karma? 

Perhaps in the city centre but outside of these the loss of offices to residential might maintain rents for what remains and landowners making the change will be better off.

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22 minutes ago, NFN FC said:

More like the friends and family of the current government would lose rents as companies decide they don't need all their office space anymore. I think many will downsize their space and encourage more WFH 

I think that is right and will apply everywhere but of course far more so in London with sky high rents and travelling costs.

I dare say many companies will want to keep a presence in London 'for show' more than anything else but I think we will see some really dramatic downsizing of office accomodation, especially in London.

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1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I think that is right and will apply everywhere but of course far more so in London with sky high rents and travelling costs.

I dare say many companies will want to keep a presence in London 'for show' more than anything else but I think we will see some really dramatic downsizing of office accomodation, especially in London.

Its already happening and has been for a while. The question really is how will this impact on The City and zone one.

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2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Its already happening and has been for a while. The question really is how will this impact on The City and zone one.

That misunderstands why commercial rents are so high.

Remove the high demand  because of working from home, and you remove the need for residential renting close to those offices

And with little social infrastructure to support residential rental they will not attract the middle to upper level of renting

Not that difficult to work out, I would have thought

 

 

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