Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,339]

This isn't a second wave. It's a continuation of the initial infection due to an easing of lockdown.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

Just now, ricardo said:

This isn't a second wave. It's a continuation of the initial infection due to an easing of lockdown.

 

Yes agreed. Poor terminology.

[Barbe bleu 812]

24 minutes ago, ricardo said:

This isn't a second wave. It's a continuation of the initial infection due to an easing of lockdown.

 

Plot it on a bar chart and it certainly looks like a second wave!

In march we faced a growing caseload but (relative with what was to come) low deaths.  There was much criticism of lockdown timing.

Question is do we have a preemptive second go around?

[Yellow Fever 3,736]

36 minutes ago, ricardo said:

This isn't a second wave. It's a continuation of the initial infection due to an easing of lockdown.

 

Undoubtedly true -  it's more 'controlled' (but growing still) at present simply due to the weak but existing restrictions. I sadly see currently no reason not to expect us to follow France and Spain and it to explode once more especially once it breaks back into more susceptible populations. No wishful thinking.

NZ has it right - lockdown fast and hard and not weak and wobbly as we have. 

[Barbe bleu 812]

9 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Undoubtedly true -  it's more 'controlled' (but growing still) at present simply due to the weak but existing restrictions. I sadly see currently no reason not to expect us to follow France and Spain and it to explode once more especially once it breaks back into more susceptible populations. No wishful thinking.

NZ has it right - lockdown fast and hard and not weak and wobbly as we have. 

Sounds like you are advocating a second general lockdown?

[Yellow Fever 3,736]

4 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Sounds like you are advocating a second general lockdown?

I think yes. If you want the kids back at school in a couple of weeks or so then the numbers need to be at the very least already falling  now not rising! That means shutting pubs and restaurants I guess at the very least now. If we don't and it explodes in September again I wonder who will be blamed 'Blue' ?

Uncomfortable but simply true. 

[Barbe bleu 812]

I'd be interested to hear from aggy and ricardo on this.

We should be seeing the effect of Scottish schools opening soon i guess which could inform English policy but with proposed re openings happening soon we might not have too much to go on before decisions need to be taken.

My view is that if there is a trade off it must be in favour of schools and that we might not have the data to make an informed decision by the time one is due which means an instinctual approach is required.

That being said surely we know what level of spread is caused by school children by now!

 

 

[ricardo 7,339]

I think you only have to look at Sweden, who didn't have a lockdown and didn't close schools. Their epidemic curve had a slightly longer peak and a slower decline but infections still went down to a low level. Initially there were forecasts that Sweden's approach would result in 100k deaths but this hasn't happened and seems very unlikely to happen now.

I think we should be looking at the epidemic  graphs of countries who made different decisions and compare the actual data with the forecasts.

 

[Bill 1,788]

3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I think you only have to look at Sweden, who didn't have a lockdown and didn't close schools. Their epidemic curve had a slightly longer peak and a slower decline but infections still went down to a low level. Initially there were forecasts that Sweden's approach would result in 100k deaths but this hasn't happened and seems very unlikely to happen now.

I think we should be looking at the epidemic  graphs of countries who made different decisions and compare the actual data with the forecasts.

or better, gaze at a few tea leaves

there are so many variables that the above is pretty much meaning less

simply looking at Norfolk infections and deaths without taking into account the huge number of 2nd homers etc who travelled up to Norfolk would not give a fair indication

Did Sweden halve an event like the Cheltenham festival where so many from so many different areas of the UK were in proximity for such a sustained period of time ?

look at Cholera in the 19th century - it would be lunacy to total up the number of deaths then try to extrapolate from there, they were almost all 'isolated cases' and the numbers affected were often determined by the population density as the susceptibility

looking at pretty meaningless numbers no doubt satisfies some need for those who will slaver and drool over the numbers put up on www.saddo.com - but here they are of far greater hindrance than help

[Van wink 2,994]

51 minutes ago, Bill said:

 

look at Cholera in the 19th century - it would be lunacy to total up the number of deaths then try to extrapolate from there, they were almost all 'isolated cases' and the numbers affected were often determined by the population density as the susceptibility

 

Nonsense from Billy, look up the work of  John Snow who using epidemiological data stopped the 1854 Cholera outbreak,  sadly the importance of his work wasn't recognised at the time, too many old fools believing in the miasma theory, a bit like you! 

https://www.pastmedicalhistory.co.uk/john-snow-and-the-1854-cholera-outbreak/

[Bill 1,788]

Oh dear, poor hand crank

as clueless as ever

the link actually backs up exactly my point ie the problem lies with outbreaks and their specific causes, not as the nonsense abour rze numbers etc

 

ps any evidence of my betting with, you, my supposed stealing of money or your moving from the private sector to the NHS

[Van wink 2,994]

Clearly they haven't grown back Billy, if they were ever there 😉

[Barbe bleu 812]

This bloody bet thing.  Just both of you accept and lets get it done.  Bill, how about you pay £1 if caught out and VW you pay £400?

Interesting that Ricardo is leaning towards staying open as he was first into lockdown in March.   Got to say that  YF and Ricardo both make good cases. The swedish experience does give a lot of hope but the figures are not so different to those we saw in early to mid march. So which experience do you learn from?

 

 

 

Edited August 17, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[ricardo 7,339]

15 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

This bloody bet thing.  Just both of you accept and lets get it done.  Bill, how about you pay £1 if caught out and VW you pay £400?

Interesting that Ricardo is leaning towards staying open as he was first into lockdown in March.   Got to say that  YF and Ricardo both make good cases. The swedish experience does give a lot of hope but the figures are not so different to those we saw in early to mid march. So which experience do you learn from?

 

 

 

I think we have to learn from the actual data not anecdotal nonsense about what may or may not have transpired from the Cheltenham Festival, football matches, demonstrations etc.

A quick lockdown undoubtedly saves lives early on but the virus cannot be eliminated and will always retain a residual pool to reinfect the susceptible.  This is what we now see in the data from countries like Australia etc that had a modicum of success early on.

 The reality is that without an effective vaccine the virus will eventually run through sufficient victims until herd immunity is established. In my opinion another total lockdown is unviable economically so I don't  expect to see one.

[ricardo 7,339]

Latest figures down again.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

I think we have to learn from the actual data not anecdotal nonsense about what may or may not have transpired from the Cheltenham Festival, football matches, demonstrations etc.

A quick lockdown undoubtedly saves lives early on but the virus cannot be eliminated and will always retain a residual pool to reinfect the susceptible.  This is what we now see in the data from countries like Australia etc that had a modicum of success early on.

 The reality is that without an effective vaccine the virus will eventually run through sufficient victims until herd immunity is established. In my opinion another total lockdown is unviable economically so I don't  expect to see one.

We won't see a general lockdown again, not unless we have widespread community spread, localised action will be the norm.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Latest figures down again.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

good news

[Bill 1,788]

44 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

This bloody bet thing.  Just both of you accept and lets get it done.  Bill, how about you pay £1 if caught out and VW you pay £400?

there's no 'bet thing'

as you of all people should know 😜

just hand crank caught out lying...again

 

ps remember when he was going to 'blow me out of the water'.... I wonder what happened to that 🤔

[Van wink 2,994]

Calling people liars on so many threads Billy, but when put to the test you don’t have the balls to back it up. 
Bit of a Jaffa 😉

[Herman 9,710]

Tier 2 = NHS

Tier 3 = Serco.

Either this or t'other way round.

[Barbe bleu 812]

I think that everyone has drawn their own conclusions on the basis of Bills reticence (and wondered why the witchfinder 🧙‍♀️ general thought you might be lying about something so innocuous anyway.)

 

 

[Bill 1,788]

16 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I think that everyone has drawn their own conclusions on the basis of Bills reticence (and wondered why the witchfinder 🧙‍♀️ general thought you might be lying about something so innocuous anyway.)

my reticence ...... oh dear hand crank, you really are getting desperate now

hand crank made the claim (lie) so I think it is acceptable for him to prove that claim

why cannot he not provide evidence of his claim, simple as that

 

and others might wonder that the person I know to be hand crank BB is getting so involved, more so after I was supposed to spoil all threads

bring back RTB is my thought

now cough up hand crank, and prove that I am a liar

because if the boot was on the other foot I would have cleared my name at the first instance - but we both know why you can't 🤥

[Van wink 2,994]

[Bill 1,788]

that's an unusual NHS payslip, hand crank 😅

come on, 'blow me out of the water'

with your evidence

[Van wink 2,994]

3 minutes ago, Bill said:

that's an unusual NHS payslip, hand crank 😅

come on, 'blow me out of the water'

with your evidence

The offer is still there Billy, surely you would like to see me cough up £400 to charity. If you are so convinced I am lying call my bluff... as I said earlier, if you haven’t got the balls STFU 😘

[Bill 1,788]

It is not a game of poker

I am not obliged to put money on the table to 'see you'

If there was any evidence in the slightest you would have put it up knowing that would damn me for eternity, so to speak

The reason you cannot provide evidence is there is none, as we both know

So I won't wait for anything, as with the accusations that I stole money from the legion they isn't any

Though there is plenty of evidence of RTB continuously backing you on that lie, and BB on this lie.

What that is I leave others to ponder - why you have no evidence I think they have already worked out

 

fin

[Van wink 2,994]

Put your money where your mouth is Billy. 

[Aggy 750]

7 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'd be interested to hear from aggy and ricardo on this.

We should be seeing the effect of Scottish schools opening soon i guess which could inform English policy but with proposed re openings happening soon we might not have too much to go on before decisions need to be taken.

My view is that if there is a trade off it must be in favour of schools and that we might not have the data to make an informed decision by the time one is due which means an instinctual approach is required.

That being said surely we know what level of spread is caused by school children by now!

 

 

I doubt there will ever be a trade off. Pubs, restaurants, hotels etc closing isn’t just people missing out on a drink with their mates, it’s livelihoods lost. And if it’s ‘acceptable’ for kids to run around getting and spreading covid, why are young, healthy, very low risk adults going to stand for having their livelihoods taken away? 

Especially when deaths and hospital admissions continue to go down - talk of having both opening meaning we will lose control of new infections is not going to really bother people if there isn’t any corresponding increase in deaths.

I’m also a bit unsure as to what evidence there is that opening schools will push us over the edge in terms of controlling the number of infections. Children can - and are - playing together now already. They can meet up with their mates in a park or back yard, then go and visit their grandparents, then go and get a haircut, walk round Sainsburys without a mask on, visit their parents’ friends’ house with their parents etc. Schools should by now have suitable distancing and sanitisation measures in place so that the exposure for children isn’t really much more than what they’re exposed to already.

Chuck in as well that those most at risk of suffering from the economic impact are younger adults - many of whom are likely to have young kids. If the parents lose their jobs, they’re going to struggle to feed and look after the kids. So it’s not a simple education vs pubs argument. 

You’re right BB that we might not have the data right now but for me, unless there’s very clear data, and/or the deaths are starting to increase, then you can’t bring in measures which will start ruining people’s lives and the economy. 

My guess is that it will be a both or neither thing. Hospitality industry closes down at the same time as schools (unlikely unless drastic upshot in deaths), or both are open but controlled. Most likely, it will be controlled, localised increases in restrictions (affecting schools and adults).

When the furlough scheme ends / reduces further and the true extent of job losses is made clear as further redundancies are made, I think we’ll see, if anything, a bigger swing to protecting the economy and a move towards the vulnerable “self-shielding” to protect themselves and other more vulnerable people whilst others carry on as currently.

[Van wink 2,994]

33 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I doubt there will ever be a trade off. Pubs, restaurants, hotels etc closing isn’t just people missing out on a drink with their mates, it’s livelihoods lost. And if it’s ‘acceptable’ for kids to run around getting and spreading covid, why are young, healthy, very low risk adults going to stand for having their livelihoods taken away? 

Especially when deaths and hospital admissions continue to go down - talk of having both opening meaning we will lose control of new infections is not going to really bother people if there isn’t any corresponding increase in deaths.

I’m also a bit unsure as to what evidence there is that opening schools will push us over the edge in terms of controlling the number of infections. Children can - and are - playing together now already. They can meet up with their mates in a park or back yard, then go and visit their grandparents, then go and get a haircut, walk round Sainsburys without a mask on, visit their parents’ friends’ house with their parents etc. Schools should by now have suitable distancing and sanitisation measures in place so that the exposure for children isn’t really much more than what they’re exposed to already.

Chuck in as well that those most at risk of suffering from the economic impact are younger adults - many of whom are likely to have young kids. If the parents lose their jobs, they’re going to struggle to feed and look after the kids. So it’s not a simple education vs pubs argument. 

You’re right BB that we might not have the data right now but for me, unless there’s very clear data, and/or the deaths are starting to increase, then you can’t bring in measures which will start ruining people’s lives and the economy. 

My guess is that it will be a both or neither thing. Hospitality industry closes down at the same time as schools (unlikely unless drastic upshot in deaths), or both are open but controlled. Most likely, it will be controlled, localised increases in restrictions (affecting schools and adults).

When the furlough scheme ends / reduces further and the true extent of job losses is made clear as further redundancies are made, I think we’ll see, if anything, a bigger swing to protecting the economy and a move towards the vulnerable “self-shielding” to protect themselves and other more vulnerable people whilst others carry on as currently.

I hope you’re right Aggy. I was expecting to see a substantial rise in daily figures in the UK by now, with associated hospital admissions, thankfully we are not seeing it as yet. We must also be seeing an increased level of community immunity as time progresses, at some stage that will become significant. Fingers crossed.

Edited August 17, 2020 by Van wink

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Grassroots Football can return in September and possibly Rugby in October. There are no protocols only guidance, which is just not going to be adhered to. Imagine how many millions that entails? And after each match and midweek training etc

So I am completely at a loss why there is a debate about schools and hospitality. I see them as far easier to control than grassroots sport.