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4 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I suspect a lot of that is correct. The NHS has the strengths and weaknesses of a sprawling organisation.

But, I think that very little of what is being seen can be explained by what is happening in a clinical environment.  This is a public health emergency, not a medical one

 

I think it is both in reality, and unfortunately the public health aspect which I agree is extremely important and is actually more locally based than the NHS but the public health services have both suffered far greater resource cuts than the NHS itself and when we needed them the most the control freaks in Westminister sidelined our local public health bodies in favour of the usual suspects in the private sector who had neither the competance or experience to deliver the public health outcomes we so desperately need. Seems as though they are finally beginning to backtrack on this a bit now but as so much of the Government's response to this crisis it is too little and far too late.

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2 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

we have an NHS severely weakened by ten years of incompetent and under-funded governance

The NHS underfunded?

🤪

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I don't know how they can control it but Northern Territories in Australia is closing its borders for another 18 months.

Australia is a Commonwealth of course so it will be interesting to see what the other states do.

Edited by keelansgrandad

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16 hours ago, Bill said:

ooh ......................go on

take one of those photos like you did when you were posting as bagster... a builder with a C5, parked up in the drive of a small bungalow\

and someone who has taken so much trouble and time to post so many lies about would not resist this chance, surely ?

Tell us why contract would require you to be moved around the country (UK), when the new system merely talks of

"If the dedicated national team cannot make contact with a resident within a set period of time, the local public health officials can use the data provided by NHS Test and Trace to follow up, which in some pilot areas has involved local authority teams and voluntary partners visiting people at home."

nothing whatsoever about those using a phone to be moved to another part of the country. - why would they when you think of the cost ?

the reality is that yet again you have lied, as so often, not expecting anyone to either remember or check up

of course you could blow me out of the water.................. or simply use BB or RTB to distract, as usual

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16 hours ago, Van wink said:

Para 1 ....incorrect Billy........”I do not engage in matters that I do not already know a considerable lot about” 😂.......good start👍

So as you know “a considerable amount” about this Bill, odd that the first thing you say is complete rubbish. 
I do in fact know “ a considerable amount” from first hand experience, now off you go and do a bit more Googling, only next time use some better sources and you might get something right. Pop in later and update me there’s a good chap 😘

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The 'considerable amount' only seems so when compared to your pitiful attempts to distract from your obvious lie.

All I have done is put up evidence to question your claims

Now, why not put up evidence to back your claims ?

As I can assure you were the roles reversed I would have put up the required evidence long ago

So the question will remain with others, why not ?

Edited by Bill

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Last weeks antibody random sampling figures -

6% Nationally, 13% in London.

As I'm not one for wishful thinking or unproven significant scientific additional immunity mechanisms - these numbers at face value don't lend any credence to herd immunity ideas and leaves us wide open to a resurgence of the virus ... indeed the slow but relentless uptick in new cases tends to support that view.

Now, it may be true that  many of the low hanging fruit (i.e. care homes) may have already had their dose and possibly the virus is weakening but I very much suspect the relaxation in social distancing is about to come back and bite us.

That said I would agree schools back but shut the rest ... or accept the consequences eyes open.

 

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3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Last weeks antibody random sampling figures -

6% Nationally, 13% in London.

As I'm not one for wishful thinking or unproven significant scientific additional immunity mechanisms - these numbers at face value don't lend any credence to herd immunity ideas and leaves us wide open to a resurgence of the virus ... indeed the slow but relentless uptick in new cases tends to support that view.

Now, it may be true that  many of the low hanging fruit (i.e. care homes) may have already had their dose and possibly the virus is weakening but I very much suspect the relaxation in social distancing is about to come back and bite us.

That said I would agree schools back but shut the rest ... or accept the consequences eyes open.

 

Yesterday’s figures were alarming as we seem to be following curves in Spain and France: as we did at the beginning. I don’t see that we are doing anything significantly different from Spain and France to prevent a similar trajectory.

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1 minute ago, Van wink said:

Yesterday’s figures were alarming as we seem to be following curves in Spain and France: as we did at the beginning. I don’t see that we are doing anything significantly different from Spain and France to prevent a similar trajectory.

Indeed, we are still continuing to relax restrictions ostrich like.

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22 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Last weeks antibody random sampling figures -

6% Nationally, 13% in London.

As I'm not one for wishful thinking or unproven significant scientific additional immunity mechanisms - these numbers at face value don't lend any credence to herd immunity ideas and leaves us wide open to a resurgence of the virus ... indeed the slow but relentless uptick in new cases tends to support that view.

Now, it may be true that  many of the low hanging fruit (i.e. care homes) may have already had their dose and possibly the virus is weakening but I very much suspect the relaxation in social distancing is about to come back and bite us.

That said I would agree schools back but shut the rest ... or accept the consequences eyes open.

 

I would be very interested in the research that must be happening on the proportion of confirmed cases that do not result in detectable antibody levels but nontheless confer immunity on the individual.  

At the moment we are forced to accept 6% and 13% but we've long suspected that true rates of immunity are much higher.  Surely some estimation of this can be put forward by now.

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22 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I would be very interested in the research that must be happening on the proportion of confirmed cases that do not result in detectable antibody levels but nontheless confer immunity on the individual.  

At the moment we are forced to accept 6% and 13% but we've long suspected that true rates of immunity are much higher.  Surely some estimation of this can be put forward by now.

this might be of interest

edit - also this

Edited by How I Wrote Elastic Man

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6 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Thanks.  Obviously a limited study but suggests that one in ten infections do not create a detectable antibody response at all.  

I guess though we also need to know how the antobody surveys are being done and at what point. Its one thing saying that 90% of people generate an antibody response.  Its potentially quite another to test them at a time when this response is likely to be detected

 

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Thanks Elastic.

So only about 1 in 10 have Covid but no antibodies  - in-fact in the realms of false positives/negatives but in any event largely insignificant - plus we don't know how long any such AB  immunity will last.

Any T cell immunity (as above)  and similar is however ongoing research.

Just saw BB come to the same facts.

I think my point about limited to zero current herd (6 or 6.6% who a cares) immunity stands.

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4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

I think my point about limited to zero current herd (6 or 6.6% who a cares) immunity stands.

I'd agree with that.  We have to take the pessimistic view until the researxh catches up.   

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8 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'd agree with that.  We have to take the pessimistic view until the researxh catches up.   

That's really my point - I will quite happily accept say 20% of the population may have some unknown immunity (genetic, previous diseases - even a small % were genetically resilient to the bubonic plague in medieval times etc)  but I suspect the vast majority of us have little to no immunity. The only question would be how bad will we get it!

Those that have already 'caught' it may be largely in jobs, life-styles that left them particularly exposed i.e. in the NHS, care homes, high density multi generational living  - those with 'bohemian' lifestyles as well or just plain unlucky. For the rest of us it may just be our good fortune it has, as yet, not found us yet and perhaps it may also be quite fragile and easily stopped with limited social distancing measures. 

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3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Positives drop back to just over 0.6 percent today. ( 1012 )

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Hospitalised now below 1K ( was over 30k)

It’s a relief to see the figures drop back a bit from yesterday, day to day figures I know are not representative of trend but I was concerned when I saw the jump yesterday. Let’s hope we can buck the trend and not follow what’s happening in France and Spain, I am not optimistic but lets see.

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4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Positives drop back to just over 0.6 percent today. ( 1012 )

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Hospitalised now below 1K ( was over 30k)

As a vulnerable Ricardo, are you confident or reticent about the next couple of months. Much of the Western world is imposing tougher restrictions again while the UK , maybe behind in the time frame, seems to be ignoring the possibility that there could be problems ahead. Even local outbreaks are serious.

Furlough will end and virtually everything employment wise will be back, but obviously not normal.

Autumn will be upon us although in some ways that could be a relief if people start their hibernation process. And I assume holidays will be over and mass movement will have stopped.

Would you go to Carrow Road even if there is ample social distancing?

 

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38 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

As a vulnerable Ricardo, are you confident or reticent about the next couple of months. Much of the Western world is imposing tougher restrictions again while the UK , maybe behind in the time frame, seems to be ignoring the possibility that there could be problems ahead. Even local outbreaks are serious.

Furlough will end and virtually everything employment wise will be back, but obviously not normal.

Autumn will be upon us although in some ways that could be a relief if people start their hibernation process. And I assume holidays will be over and mass movement will have stopped.

Would you go to Carrow Road even if there is ample social distancing?

 

Yes, I am fairly confident about the next couple of months. We know a lot more about the virus and I think most of us are being careful in our everday actions. Crowded coffee shops and supermarkets are now something I purposefully avoid. I used to enjoy the occasional pint at lunchtime but have not been in a pub since March. 

I think it is important to keep abreast of developments in your local area and tailor your actions to local information. I think we are fairly safe here in Norwich and Norfolk at the moment. As to football,  I would be quite happy to go to a socially distanced CR while the rate of infection remains very low.

 

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I went to my local council owned cinama/cafe just for a quick coffee. I'm not sure if the rigamarole of taking my name, giving me a number, showing me to the cafe and showing me to a seat was worth it for a £2 brew.😀

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

I went to my local council owned cinama/cafe just for a quick coffee. I'm not sure if the rigamarole of taking my name, giving me a number, showing me to the cafe and showing me to a seat was worth it for a £2 brew.😀

Well, we all have to push the boat out now and again.😉

  • Haha 1

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3 hours ago, Van wink said:

It’s a relief to see the figures drop back a bit from yesterday, day to day figures I know are not representative of trend but I was concerned when I saw the jump yesterday. Let’s hope we can buck the trend and not follow what’s happening in France and Spain, I am not optimistic but lets see.

Are Spain and France’s death rates going up yet?

I saw Spain had a “spike” to 26 deaths but they had a similar one off “spike” on 4 August then dropped back immediately to 0-3, and they’ve had random “spikes” to 17, 18 for one off days throughout June and July (I say random - not sure if they’re something like our ‘bank holiday spikes’). Has there been any sustained increase in daily deaths anywhere in Europe though? Presume there must have been somewhere?

 

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46 minutes ago, Jools said:

The vitamin D deficient and virus susceptible folk of Manchester celebrating their independence day last night:

https://mobile.twitter.com/LFC_blano/status/1294594057382092801

 

Make your mind up Jools. One minute they are not really British and the next minute they are.

Which one is it?

And just to disappoint you Jools, Police said no arrests were made either in Manchester or London.

Yes they were bleddy effin stupid to congregate like that. Just miss the celebration for a year instead of risking your and everyone elses health. No respect for them for that at all. Mindless fools.

Afzal Khan, the Labour MP for Gorton and Shadow Deputy Leader of the House of Commons, said those who took part had shown disrespect to the residents of Rusholme and 'put us all at risk' by ignoring coronavirus lockdown rules.

Disappointed, frustrated and angered with the appalling behaviour on Wilmslow Road last night," he wrote.

Happy with that?

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1 hour ago, Aggy said:

Are Spain and France’s death rates going up yet?

I saw Spain had a “spike” to 26 deaths but they had a similar one off “spike” on 4 August then dropped back immediately to 0-3, and they’ve had random “spikes” to 17, 18 for one off days throughout June and July (I say random - not sure if they’re something like our ‘bank holiday spikes’). Has there been any sustained increase in daily deaths anywhere in Europe though? Presume there must have been somewhere?

 

Not sure on the death rates Aggy and that’s a fair question. Another fair question is why if infections are going up are hospitalisations and subsequent death rates not increasing. There are theories but as far as I am aware nothing proven. Your argument seems to me to be always driven by consideration of the number of deaths, which is fair to a point, my thoughts tend to go back to first principals based on our experience so far, that being if infections rise in due course hospitalisations and deaths will follow. 

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12 hours ago, Van wink said:

Not sure on the death rates Aggy and that’s a fair question. Another fair question is why if infections are going up are hospitalisations and subsequent death rates not increasing. There are theories but as far as I am aware nothing proven. Your argument seems to me to be always driven by consideration of the number of deaths, which is fair to a point, my thoughts tend to go back to first principals based on our experience so far, that being if infections rise in due course hospitalisations and deaths will follow. 


My argument is that the “economy vs lives” debate is a very different debate to the “economy vs having three days in bed with a bit of flu” debate.

If there is clear evidence that infections in the community are actually rising (and we’re not just seeing an increase due to increased testing identifying numbers that have always been there), and there’s clear evidence that the genuine increase of infections will lead to more deaths, then yes there’s a clear argument for increased restrictions to save lives.

As it is currently, despite an increase in infections multiple places in Europe, I haven’t seen deaths significantly increase anywhere. I have seen testing ramped up significantly everywhere. The infections have been rising in some countries for over a month yet no significant increase in deaths. It’s probably too simplistic to attribute it all to the testing, but if it’s something else (such as the virus becoming weaker), then that can only be good news too. 

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On 14/08/2020 at 19:41, Van wink said:

Billy, I posted a small section of a new contract I was sent, I did that genuinely as thought others may be interested to see how T and T is changing. 
As for your question, I have no idea why they have used the same phrase that they used in other contracts, other than the very obvious observation that contracts are not written from scratch each time, and that HR use standard phrases that may appear in many contracts.

But the 'they' in question is Serco, or Sitel. The contract tracers as you claim to be one of are not employed by the NHS, so there would be no NHS contract to be signed.

That is why I know you are, once again, lying.

In fact what has been changed is that "allocating roles to regional teams to work with councils, after criticism that the centrally run system was failing to tackle local outbreaks."

Nothing about private staff being moved to the NHS, or even moved around the country.

However it matters little what you post about my supposed behaviour, be it you or as RTB/BB. What does matter is that the evidence of your lying is put forward

What others make of it is up to them

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2 hours ago, Bill said:

But the 'they' in question is Serco, or Sitel. The contract tracers as you claim to be one of are not employed by the NHS, so there would be no NHS contract to be signed.

That is why I know you are, once again, lying.

In fact what has been changed is that "allocating roles to regional teams to work with councils, after criticism that the centrally run system was failing to tackle local outbreaks."

Nothing about private staff being moved to the NHS, or even moved around the country.

However it matters little what you post about my supposed behaviour, be it you or as RTB/BB. What does matter is that the evidence of your lying is put forward

What others make of it is up to them

If you don’t know what your talking about, which you clearly don’t,  it’s better to keep quite Billy. I am employed by NHS Professionals.

ps the others are right and you are wrong🤫

Edited by Van wink

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