Corona Virus main thread

[Tetteys Jig 830]

10 minutes ago, Bill said:

TJ

You overlook the social benefit this meaningless numbers serve - just as using AA was during the blitz - it done nothing to stop or even deter the bombers, but te noise reassured residents, and more importantly allowed the government to claim they were doing something

The r number thing is about as much use as a TV detector van is at actually detecting anything - but it convinces enough of the not too bright to believe it is doing something.

There are so many variables involved in the spread, in and becoming infected that this nonsense that gets put up here regularly might just as well be predictions based on certain stars aligning.

The only thing we can know for certainty is that there are an almost defined number of people this will kill if they become infected. Whilst we have a fair indication who those are (at risk) it is only at best a generalisation.

So instead of counting numbers the work should, and is almost certainly being directed at who this will kill and how to combat that.

The rest is just worthless nonsense - and yes I do side with your thought that we have to begin to 'get on with it'.

yup, id even be okay with some kind of power plant managementesque scale whereby we have green, Amber and red warnings based on current nhs figures. If it starts looking like we are going to overwhelm the system then bang we go into full lockdown with a scale of measures down from that and a sweden style way of dealing with it when levels are low.

Perhaps it'll be over quicker than we think if we manage to get the right people vaccinated this side of winter meaning the pinch points get eliminated and the virus wanes away, starved of vulnerable people. If say it isn't and we still have this **** to deal with in 5 years then the current method of containment just isn't viable at all.

[Bill 1,788]

yep, because the containment is not quantified as we have no knowledge of who is breaking it - one 'loose cannon' and it can break out in another part of the country

numbers put up on here are meaningless as we have no knowledge of who is not reporting possible symptoms, and so could be 'endangering others'

as to precautions we have those fancy dress wearers but the times I visit the supermarket and BQ I have yet to see anyone use the hand steriliser, nor clean the trolley/basket, distancing is non-existent

we need to stop the comfort stories and put it to the populace bluntly, as all this tea leave reading and mystig meg stuff causes more harm than good

[T 190]

11 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

That article explains exponential growth. But it's not just about growth its about who it spreads to. 

Germany, France and Spain are all controlling growth less well than the UK but this is not (yet) reflected in deaths as far as we can tell from their official reports.  Maybe this is because they are doing well at protecting the vulnerable?

I expect Germany benefits from more ICU specialists so not just Ventilators but specialists where as UK it was all hands to the deck. A mixture of prudent culture to risk, more effective mix of public and private healthcare and more localised control. 
 

However you look at it UK has one of the worst health and economic responses and that urgently needs to be analysed and addressed rather than ignored denied and deflected from. The UK appears to have fundamental structural problems that need to be addressed. 

[sonyc 5,489]

On 12/08/2020 at 21:53, Van wink said:

 

I think it's a fascinating subject (virtue signalling) and I've been reading quite a bit over the last day. You've done me a big favour VW (and realise it wasn't aimed my way) in that the comment has put up a big mirror in front of me, so to speak. And I've not liked what I've seen.

Putting one's views forward is always a risk because you state your side of the fence. And I've realised I am probably talking about stuff for which I actually only have a little knowledge (though certainly have a reaction about or an emotion). Therefore, I am not adding anything of value.

Here is one interesting article amongst many. I believe it shows the pitfalls in expressing any view in any disagreement.

https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/stop-saying-virtue-signalling

Needless to say I will stick more to what I know about now (about 3 subjects)! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,736]

3 hours ago, T said:

I expect Germany benefits from more ICU specialists so not just Ventilators but specialists where as UK it was all hands to the deck. A mixture of prudent culture to risk, more effective mix of public and private healthcare and more localised control. 
 

However you look at it UK has one of the worst health and economic responses and that urgently needs to be analysed and addressed rather than ignored denied and deflected from. The UK appears to have fundamental structural problems that need to be addressed. 

I tend to agree with this - we have done badly both on Covid 'deaths' and economically too.  In the relegation spots for both.

At the start - we should of been well placed for a top 6 finish.

If we were talking football the manager would of been sacked long ago.

[A Load of Squit 5,119]

If you know anyone who is rushing to get back from France due to the change in the quarantine rules I've got some important information to share.

The ferry port is very busy, if you can't get on a ferry head into Calais town centre and find the Happy Smuggler Bar, ask for Pierre, he'll be wearing a beret, he can get you on a rubber dinghy crossing.

If/when you make it to the English coast ask the first person you see to let Nigel know you've made it to England and would like to be taken to a 4* hotel and then onto a guided tour of Anfield.

Good luck.

 

 

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

18 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Let's hope it all turns out OK, KG 👍

 

Thanks MY.

The system is baffling though.

My sister in law, who could have been the source, has been told to quarantine but doesn't have to test! Why not? How would it harm to test her?

My niece who lives in Altea has been told her husband and her should test but my nephew who lives in Benidorm doesn't have to. All had contact with my Brother in law and may be asymptomatic.

My Brother in law has been isolated but they have turned the AC off for his room in case it spreads.

It is all very confusing.

[Van wink 2,994]

5 hours ago, sonyc said:

I think it's a fascinating subject (virtue signalling) and I've been reading quite a bit over the last day. You've done me a big favour VW (and realise it wasn't aimed my way) in that the comment has put up a big mirror in front of me, so to speak. And I've not liked what I've seen.

Putting one's views forward is always a risk because you state your side of the fence. And I've realised I am probably talking about stuff for which I actually only have a little knowledge (though certainly have a reaction about or an emotion). Therefore, I am not adding anything of value.

Here is one interesting article amongst many. I believe it shows the pitfalls in expressing any view in any disagreement.

https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/stop-saying-virtue-signalling

Needless to say I will stick more to what I know about now (about 3 subjects)! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well you have certainly done some research, having used the phrase on only one occasion I hadn’t expected such a reaction, particularly from someone who it clearly wasn’t aimed at. Having read your link and the comments following it, my eyes have been opened somewhat so thanks for that. I suspect I have misused the term, my  intention was to draw attention to the position taken by an individual who takes high moral ground, lectures others and falsely attributes negative views and beliefs to them, whilst at the very same time mocking those who take action to try and protect their fellows and reduce the spread of an infection, actions which in fact show the highest integrity and regard for the health of our communities. I clearly messed up but i hope you get my point.

[Mark .Y. 351]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

Thanks MY.

The system is baffling though.

My sister in law, who could have been the source, has been told to quarantine but doesn't have to test! Why not? How would it harm to test her?

My niece who lives in Altea has been told her husband and her should test but my nephew who lives in Benidorm doesn't have to. All had contact with my Brother in law and may be asymptomatic.

My Brother in law has been isolated but they have turned the AC off for his room in case it spreads.

It is all very confusing.

Yes, that does sound strange doesn't it.

I haven't kept in touch with the system in Spain so much lately, do you know if they are allowed to just go and have a free test anyway. That would seem to make sense and is something I would certainly do in their position if it was possible.

I got back from Amsterdam yesterday afternoon so am very relieved I won't have to self-isolate, just beat it 🙂

[Barbe bleu 812]

On 12/08/2020 at 19:08, ricardo said:

. 

The PHE method would have you as a Covid death if you ever tested positive this year and then lived for another 50 years. Obviously nonsensical.

I dont disagree with this and I do believe that if we are too look around for best practice it must be possible to make comparisons. However, the new rules require deaths to be within 28 days of the first positive test. This doesn't seem quite right either! 

More reason to go with the ONS figures for the accurate position and the PHE ones for international comparisons 

 

[ricardo 7,339]

3 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I dont disagree with this and I do believe that if we are too look around for best practice it must be possible to make comparisons. However, the new rules require deaths to be within 28 days of the first positive test. This doesn't seem quite right either! 

More reason to go with the ONS figures for the accurate position and the PHE ones for international comparisons 

 

The 28 day rule is the international standard. 

[Bill 1,788]

23 hours ago, Van wink said:

5.2. You will be required to comply with the applicable local policies of each Trust you work with.“

s can be found here  - hand crank has just cut and pasted from

file:///C:/Users/mrjug/AppData/Local/Temp/FW%20Registration%20Document%20April%202013%20FINAL.pdf

Date: 2nd April 2013

you can be rather dim at times Herman, and naive KG, as the person misrepresenting what you said is the same one posting this cut and paste job .... hand crank

I have not added hand cranks full post p save space, but some might find it odd that the NHS is emailing a 7 year old contract to someone i France where they are required to detach part of it and return ps I am sure BB will be along soon to explain it or RTB will appear to accuse me of stealing so as to distract from the post 😅

[Van wink 2,994]

22 minutes ago, Bill said:

s can be found here  - hand crank has just cut and pasted from

file:///C:/Users/mrjug/AppData/Local/Temp/FW%20Registration%20Document%20April%202013%20FINAL.pdf

Date: 2nd April 2013

you can be rather dim at times Herman, and naive KG, as the person misrepresenting what you said is the same one posting this cut and paste job .... hand crank

I have not added hand cranks full post p save space, but some might find it odd that the NHS is emailing a 7 year old contract to someone i France where they are required to detach part of it and return ps I am sure BB will be along soon to explain it or RTB will appear to accuse me of stealing so as to distract from the post 😅

You are a sad old chap Bill. 

[ricardo 7,339]

Meanwhile back on planet earth we have todays figures.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

 

Another very slight uptick to just over 0.8 percent.

 

[Bill 1,788]

2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

You are a sad old chap Bill. 

neither old (50s) nor sad (comedy writer)

and certainly not someone who cannot see through your all too obvious lies

...... they just keep piling up. don't they 😁

[Van wink 2,994]

5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Meanwhile back on planet earth we have todays figures.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

 

Another very slight uptick to just over 0.8 percent.

 

It’s on the up isn’t it. 

[Van wink 2,994]

4 minutes ago, Bill said:

neither old (50s) nor sad (comedy writer)

and certainly not someone who cannot see through your all too obvious lies

...... they just keep piling up. don't they 😁

I could blow your claims out of the water any time I choose Billy, but you’re not worth it and don’t deserve it 👍

[Bill 1,788]

ooh ......................go on

take one of those photos like you did when you were posting as bagster... a builder with a C5, parked up in the drive of a small bungalow\

and someone who has taken so much trouble and time to post so many lies about would not resist this chance, surely ?

 

ps how come the email sent to you is part of a 2013 contract for a different job ?

[Van wink 2,994]

7 minutes ago, Bill said:

 

ps how come the email sent to you is part of a 2013 contract for a different job ?

Billy, I posted a small section of a new contract I was sent, I did that genuinely as thought others may be interested to see how T and T is changing. 
As for your question, I have no idea why they have used the same phrase that they used in other contracts, other than the very obvious observation that contracts are not written from scratch each time, and that HR use standard phrases that may appear in many contracts. 

 

[Herman 9,710]

Raise your hand and blow your warning hooter.

 

[Bill 1,788]

23 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I could blow your claims out of the water any time I choose Billy, but you’re not worth it and don’t deserve it 👍

Then please do, as I am sure there are those who would love to see this - as well as the contract moving you from working for Serco to the NHS.

Or why are the NHS asking you, alone, to be ready to move to anywhere in the country... when the whole idea is for the test and trace to be done locally.

There are a couple of other things, but they can wait until we have your 'evidence' blowing me out of the water

Let's just hope it is bit more substantial than your never seen 'evidence' of my supposed stealing £1000 from my local British Legion. But I don't doubt if you show the same persistence in spreading that smear, I am sure you can cobble together something that you think people will swallow

Caution - I would pay heed to Swindon's loss, Any barrister will tell you they don't ask a question they do not already know the answer to. and although I am nowhere near those heights I do not engage in matters that I do not already know a considerable lot about.

An essential practice I would advise.

I am off out, so I shall pop back tomorrow,

[Van wink 2,994]

14 minutes ago, Bill said:

Then please do, as I am sure there are those who would love to see this - as well as the contract moving you from working for Serco to the NHS.

Or why are the NHS asking you, alone, to be ready to move to anywhere in the country... when the whole idea is for the test and trace to be done locally.

There are a couple of other things, but they can wait until we have your 'evidence' blowing me out of the water

Let's just hope it is bit more substantial than your never seen 'evidence' of my supposed stealing £1000 from my local British Legion. But I don't doubt if you show the same persistence in spreading that smear, I am sure you can cobble together something that you think people will swallow

Caution - I would pay heed to Swindon's loss, Any barrister will tell you they don't ask a question they do not already know the answer to. and although I am nowhere near those heights I do not engage in matters that I do not already know a considerable lot about.

An essential practice I would advise.

I am off out, so I shall pop back tomorrow,

Para 1 ....incorrect Billy........”I do not engage in matters that I do not already know a considerable lot about” 😂.......good start👍

Edited August 14, 2020 by Van wink

[Barbe bleu 812]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

The 28 day rule is the international standard. 

I don't doubt that (although i understand spain may have a different regime), just doesn't seem right to me.  That's why I said we should consider both ways of measuring.

[Surfer 1,547]

I guess nobody will be traveling to the US anytime soon then?  Cases per 100,000 

Chart 1 is Log Scale - maybe doesn't look so bad?    Chart 2 Lin Scale - what on earth? 

p.s. the US rate is falling in part because the testing is falling off too - see Chart 3

Edited August 14, 2020 by Surfer

[Barbe bleu 812]

14 hours ago, T said:

I expect Germany benefits from more ICU specialists so not just Ventilators but specialists where as UK it was all hands to the deck. A mixture of prudent culture to risk, more effective mix of public and private healthcare and more localised control. 
 

However you look at it UK has one of the worst health and economic responses and that urgently needs to be analysed and addressed rather than ignored denied and deflected from. The UK appears to have fundamental structural problems that need to be addressed. 

I dont think its got much at all to do with hospitals to be honest. I'd be interested to know what you are basing the idea that Germany's comparatively successful case/death ratio is due to clinical intervention is based on as its quite damming on the NHS and the way we do things here 

[Van wink 2,994]

16 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I dont think its got much at all to do with hospitals to be honest. I'd be interested to know what you are basing the idea that Germany's comparatively successful case/death ratio is due to clinical intervention is based on as its quite damming on the NHS and the way we do things here 

I doubt it’s clinical interventions, more likely the vulnerability of the infected population.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181]

23 hours ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

We have testing at the border for tourists here, though it's not infallible 

Icelanders and residents need to  test  at the border, observe special measures for a few days, then test again. That's not infallible either 

I don't think anything will be 100% foolproof until we get a vaccine, or the virus hopefully weakens 

Jæja!

That post has not aged well at all. I guess it shows how quickly things change in these strange times 

New rules

[Barbe bleu 812]

2 hours ago, Bill said:

 nor sad (comedy writer)

 

Really, what a cool sounding job.  Anything we might have heard of?

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

44 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I dont think its got much at all to do with hospitals to be honest. I'd be interested to know what you are basing the idea that Germany's comparatively successful case/death ratio is due to clinical intervention is based on as its quite damming on the NHS and the way we do things here 

I don't think it is damming the NHS in the clinical sense at all - the two very clear and, I would suggest, significant differences  between the way health care is organised and delivered in Germany as oppsoed to the UK is firstly the funding and level of resources is significantly greater in Germany, and secondly the health service in Germany is much more decentralised and regionally accountable in complete contrast to the unaccountable monolith run by the control freaks in Westminister.

I think the clinical staff in the theatres and the wards of the NHS are the equal of Germany and anywhere else in the world, and better than most. But the management of the NHS, starting at the very top with the politicians in Westminister, down through NHS England to the unaccountable Trusts is generally extremely poor. Doubtless some are better than others but the tone is set from the top and we have an NHS severely weakened by ten years of incompetent and under-funded governance, and the results have been obvious for some time and very tragically highlighted by this virus.

Edited August 14, 2020 by Creative Midfielder

[Barbe bleu 812]

5 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I don't think it is damming the NHS in the clinical sense at all - the two very clear and, I would suggest, significant differences  between the way health care is organised and delivered in Germany as oppsoed to the UK is firstly the funding and level of resources is significantly greater in Germany, and secondly the health service in Germany is much more decentralised and regionally accountable in complete contrast to the unaccountable monolith run by the control freaks in Westminister.

I think the clinical staff in the theatres and the wards of the NHS are the equal of Germany and anywhere else in the world, and better than most. But the management of the NHS, starting at the very top with the politicians in Westminister, down through NHS England to the unaccountable Trusts is generally extremely poor. Doubtless some are better than others but the tone is set from the top and we have an NHS severely weakened by ten years of incompetent and under-funded governance, and the results have been obvious for some time and very tragically highlighted by this virus.

I suspect a lot of that is correct. The NHS has the strengths and weaknesses of a sprawling organisation.

But, I think that very little of what is being seen can be explained by what is happening in a clinical environment.  This is a public health emergency, not a medical one