Corona Virus main thread

[sonyc 5,484]

32 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I think not.

Had to look up what the term really meant...and I think actually on quite a bit of reflection ... I do express very openly my moral values (and have done tonight in a post, trying to explain myself). So I reckon I'm guilty of it! Perhaps it's a wonderful Freudian slip or quite a chiding remark. Either way, some grudging respect due 😉 (now having to look up neologism).

 

From Wikipedia...

Virtue signalling is a pejorative neologism for the conspicuous expression of moral values

 

 

 

Edited August 12, 2020 by sonyc

[Van wink 2,994]

37 minutes ago, sonyc said:

   The remark wasn’t aimed at you as I said earlier, which you saw.

As for your post about interpretation, the art and the science, I concur. 

Epidemiology however is a numbers based science and if we are going to value epidemiological practice then we surely want the quality of the information it is based on to be as good as it can be.As for how the data is used that’s another matter, but at least let’s get the data as good as we can.

 

 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Van wink

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

You mean Iceland would be on the list?

We are on a few others, the Baltic countries all require quarantine from Iceland and Norway added us to their red list the last day or so

Our incidence rate is above 20 per 100,000, which is what some countries look at when making these decisions 

Very difficult to make a genuine comparison of stats with our small population 

Here is the latest data, in English

Small numbers make it very difficult, agreed. What I meant was you should consider whether you should quarantine people returning from UK.

[Herman 9,700]

10 hours ago, Van wink said:

Takes 5000 deaths off the U.K.Covid death figures,according to the Telegraph

 

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

 

True but completely misses the point as far as I’m concerned and in relation to the point I was making. For those purposes it wouldn’t have mattered if the recorded numbers went up or down, the important point is that they are standardised and hence more valuable from a research perspective.

[ricardo 7,334]

Here is the revised chart.

Note zero death days begin mid July.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Here is the revised chart.

Note zero death days begin mid July.

Which explains the dramatic difference with Scotland’s death numbers towards the tail of the graph.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Brother in law lives in Spain and had a triple bypass in hospital in Alicante on Monday.

Today he has been told the nose sample he had has tested positive for Covid 19.

Sister in law was allowed in after the op and was staying in a hotel asthey live in Jalon.

She has been sent home to isolate but is worried she brought it into the hospital.

So far my brother in law is asymptomatic, the doctors assume his breathing is down to the operation.

[Van wink 2,994]

48 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Brother in law lives in Spain and had a triple bypass in hospital in Alicante on Monday.

Today he has been told the nose sample he had has tested positive for Covid 19.

Sister in law was allowed in after the op and was staying in a hotel asthey live in Jalon.

She has been sent home to isolate but is worried she brought it into the hospital.

So far my brother in law is asymptomatic, the doctors assume his breathing is down to the operation.

Worrying situation KG, best wishes. 

[ricardo 7,334]

Hope it all turns out well KG.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Thanks chaps.

Still puzzling why they allowed Sister in law to kiss him. Don't know the full details and exactly what Spanish protocols are but surely contact should have been prohibited?

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

Thanks chaps.

Still puzzling why they allowed Sister in law to kiss him. Don't know the full details and exactly what Spanish protocols are but surely contact should have been prohibited?

She may have been the source of his infection but she shouldn’t beat herself up over it, it sounds as if the infection control protocols are pretty weak, in those  circumstances there were probably many sources for his infection. It may of course be a false positive.

[Bill 1,788]

9 hours ago, Van wink said:

True but completely misses the point as far as I’m concerned and in relation to the point I was making. For those purposes it wouldn’t have mattered if the recorded numbers went up or down, the important point is that they are standardised and hence more valuable from a research perspective.

if a nerdish fascination with numbers can be called 'valuable'/

The real questions that need to be addressed, and not distracted from witless guff about 'data', is why the UK had such a high number of deaths. What can be learnt from those mistakes and how much was wilful negligence.

As these unfortunates are dead I doubt they can offer up any help given their corpses will have been disposed of.

The focus should be on the cause, not righties trying to excuse their 'betters'.

[T 190]

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19
 

Merkel explained this very simply and clearly at the start because she was intelligent enough to understand it. Expertise does matter. Instead the UK selected its leadership based on nationalistic jingoism rather than intelligence   You make your choices and you end up with one of the worst death records in the world. Their supporters were repeatedly  warned but stubbornly  insisted they knew better than experts. They don’t and won’t learn while they remain in a state of denial which given the damage they have caused is understandable. 

[ricardo 7,334]

No Covid patients in any of Norfolks hospitals for last seven days.

Only eleven patients in the whole of Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex.

[Van wink 2,994]

53 minutes ago, ricardo said:

No Covid patients in any of Norfolks hospitals for last seven days.

Only eleven patients in the whole of Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex.

Good news for Norfolk.

As an aside Tier 3 contact tracers are having their numbers reduced by 6000, these are not NHS employees. I’m tier two, NHS Bank, and we are going to be asked to sign a new contract before being allowed to continue, will be interested to see the new terms.

Having now seen them it looks as if amongst many things it is changing terms to allow for working with local public health teams as well as working from home

 

“5. Place of Work

 

5.1. Whilst working with NHSP, your place of work will vary depending on the work offered and accepted. Your place of work may be any location of any Trust or any NHSP base you agree to work for. No allowance will be granted to you for any expenses or time incurred in travelling to and from the place of work allocated to you.

 

5.2. You will be required to comply with the applicable local policies of each Trust you work with.“

Edited August 13, 2020 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,334]

16 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Good news for Norfolk.

As an aside Tier 3 contact tracers are having their numbers reduced by 6000, these are not NHS employees. I’m tier two, NHS Bank, and we are going to be asked to sign a new contract before being allowed to continue, will be interested to see the new terms.

Lets hope you continue to have very little to do. I suspect the influx of holidaymakers at the major resorts may yet cause an uptick. 

The uptick within Europe continues to be a concern.

 

[Herman 9,700]

25 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Good news for Norfolk.

As an aside Tier 3 contact tracers are having their numbers reduced by 6000, these are not NHS employees. I’m tier two, NHS Bank, and we are going to be asked to sign a new contract before being allowed to continue, will be interested to see the new terms.

Having now seen them it looks as if amongst many things it is changing terms to allow for working with local public health teams as well as working from home

 

“5. Place of Work

 

5.1. Whilst working with NHSP, your place of work will vary depending on the work offered and accepted. Your place of work may be any location of any Trust or any NHSP base you agree to work for. No allowance will be granted to you for any expenses or time incurred in travelling to and from the place of work allocated to you.

 

5.2. You will be required to comply with the applicable local policies of each Trust you work with.“

Does this mean you could be asked to go and work in any part of the country, at your expense??

[Van wink 2,994]

That’s what it sounds like😁 Good luck with that. You get to choose which shifts, or as they are now calling them assignments, you do, so really it’s up to you where you go. I would only do Norfolk.( or Rennes )

Edited August 13, 2020 by Van wink

[Barbe bleu 809]

1 hour ago, T said:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19
 

Merkel explained this very simply and clearly at the start because she was intelligent enough to understand it. Expertise does matter. Instead the UK selected its leadership based on nationalistic jingoism rather than intelligence   You make your choices and you end up with one of the worst death records in the world. Their supporters were repeatedly  warned but stubbornly  insisted they knew better than experts. They don’t and won’t learn while they remain in a state of denial which given the damage they have caused is understandable. 

That article explains exponential growth. But it's not just about growth its about who it spreads to. 

Germany, France and Spain are all controlling growth less well than the UK but this is not (yet) reflected in deaths as far as we can tell from their official reports.  Maybe this is because they are doing well at protecting the vulnerable?

[Van wink 2,994]

Anybody seen the new infections figures for today?

[ricardo 7,334]

49 minutes ago, Van wink said:

That’s what it sounds like😁 Good luck with that. You get to choose which shifts, or as they are now calling them assignments, you do, so really it’s up to you where you go. I would only do Norfolk.( or Rennes )

What with all your other alias's you should be on a nice little earner.😉

[ricardo 7,334]

46 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Anybody seen the new infections figures for today?

1419 Germany, 2669 France, 2935 Spain

Not seen anything for UK so far.

The official site now says 1009.

Edited August 13, 2020 by ricardo

[Mark .Y. 351]

5 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Brother in law lives in Spain and had a triple bypass in hospital in Alicante on Monday.

Today he has been told the nose sample he had has tested positive for Covid 19.

Sister in law was allowed in after the op and was staying in a hotel asthey live in Jalon.

She has been sent home to isolate but is worried she brought it into the hospital.

So far my brother in law is asymptomatic, the doctors assume his breathing is down to the operation.

Let's hope it all turns out OK, KG 👍

 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,180]

France and The Netherlands on the naughty step 

Not good for expats in Rennes 

I hope Íslands can avoid the ban for another week so I can come home to see the family and watch Swardeston play cricket 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,180]

5 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Brother in law lives in Spain and had a triple bypass in hospital in Alicante on Monday.

Today he has been told the nose sample he had has tested positive for Covid 19.

Sister in law was allowed in after the op and was staying in a hotel asthey live in Jalon.

She has been sent home to isolate but is worried she brought it into the hospital.

So far my brother in law is asymptomatic, the doctors assume his breathing is down to the operation.

Hope it turns out OK, KG

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,180]

On 12/08/2020 at 21:11, Van wink said:

Small numbers make it very difficult, agreed. What I meant was you should consider whether you should quarantine people returning from UK.

We have testing at the border for tourists here, though it's not infallible 

Icelanders and residents need to  test  at the border, observe special measures for a few days, then test again. That's not infallible either 

I don't think anything will be 100% foolproof until we get a vaccine, or the virus hopefully weakens 

[Bill 1,788]

Thousands of travellers returning to the UK from France will face quarantine restrictions from Saturday following a surge in coronavirus infections

That kicks in at 4pm I believe, so hand crank, RTB, BB et al will have to think carefully before making a visit to dear old Blighty

perhaps he could stay with his mate in Cromer (Jools).... quite near to West Runton, I believe

[Tetteys Jig 830]

3 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

That article explains exponential growth. But it's not just about growth its about who it spreads to. 

Germany, France and Spain are all controlling growth less well than the UK but this is not (yet) reflected in deaths as far as we can tell from their official reports.  Maybe this is because they are doing well at protecting the vulnerable?

the problem with a lot of this is that there are many dynamics at play which mean that this virus doesn't simply follow 1 r number and thats that for a few weeks.

One big thing is the whole point around undetected cases. How can we be entirely sure that the true case numbers are rising unless we can test a significantly significant proportion of the country on a daily basis?

Also, despite everything, the deaths continue to trend downwards to almost negligible amounts when compared to the overall daily deaths numbers of all causes.

Even if there were "exponential spread" then if r was 1.1, the average transmission time is around 1 week so you would take 8 weeks for the case numbers to double. Not ideal but certainly no reason to panic if it meant we went from having 1000 new cases daily now to 2000 daily cases by mid October. We could then take more drastic action then and have more intermittent measures than 1 big iron fist. It might be more pallettable for the masses if this is indeed a marathon not a sprint.

I just can't help but think much of our efforts are futile until we learn more about the virus and come up with better ways to manage things than a destructive lockdown and enforced social distancing. Really that's the bigger, more destructive problem now rather than the virus itself.

I'm not saying we need to ignore the virus completely, just that there are other problems out there so we shouldn't just be leaning on lockdowns and that to deal with it. We need to be a bit cleverer in finding particular pinch points and focus efforts there. It just makes me think of someone ordering a massive steak and then using a paper straw in a futile effort to "save the environment"

[Bill 1,788]

TJ

You overlook the social benefit this meaningless numbers serve - just as using AA was during the blitz - it done nothing to stop or even deter the bombers, but te noise reassured residents, and more importantly allowed the government to claim they were doing something

The r number thing is about as much use as a TV detector van is at actually detecting anything - but it convinces enough of the not too bright to believe it is doing something.

There are so many variables involved in the spread, in and becoming infected that this nonsense that gets put up here regularly might just as well be predictions based on certain stars aligning.

The only thing we can know for certainty is that there are an almost defined number of people this will kill if they become infected. Whilst we have a fair indication who those are (at risk) it is only at best a generalisation.

So instead of counting numbers the work should, and is almost certainly being directed at who this will kill and how to combat that.

The rest is just worthless nonsense - and yes I do side with your thought that we have to begin to 'get on with it'.