Barbe bleu 814 Posted August 12, 2020 23 minutes ago, ricardo said: An interesting comparison chart for all us "nerds". I guess all forms of measurement have strengths and weaknesses when planning next steps. The trick is to know what these are. I'm not an advocate of this but does your data give a suggestion as to when we might be at 'net zero' for excess deaths? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jools 584 Posted August 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, ricardo said: It is also further confirmation that the ONS are likely to be the most accurate over time. If that's the case, Ricardo, the government should cease wrecking the economy any further... The ONS says that overall deaths are below average for the time of year for the seventh consecutive week and COVID-19 deaths are at a 19-week low --- In the week ending July 31 there were 193 deaths that had COVID-19 on the death certificate, which makes three months of falls since a weekly peak of 8,758 in April - It's the lowest figure since 103 died in the week ending March 20, before lockdown. 928 people died of flu or pneumonia in the last week of July -- The 7th consecutive week in which more people had died of flu or pneumonia than of COVID-19. While fewer than usual died in care homes and hospitals, 676 more died at home than average -- Experts say this is because people are staying away from the NHS out of fear. The ONS tells us we are now well below normal average deaths, so the government should cease with their stupidity in believing Marxist professors and end the lockdown. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 12, 2020 39 minutes ago, ricardo said: Yes very interesting Herman. It shows that the announcement that Scotland had no deaths for five weeks was playing fast and loose with the truth. It is also further confirmation that the ONS are likely to be the most accurate over time. The PHE method would have you as a Covid death if you ever tested positive this year and then lived for another 50 years. Obviously nonsensical. This has been an recognised for some time now. Surprised it’s taken so long to resolve. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181 Posted August 12, 2020 Just now, Jools said: If that's the case, Ricardo, the government should cease wrecking the economy any further... The ONS says that overall deaths are below average for the time of year for the seventh consecutive week and COVID-19 deaths are at a 19-week low --- In the week ending July 31 there were 193 deaths that had COVID-19 on the death certificate, which makes three months of falls since a weekly peak of 8,758 in April - It's the lowest figure since 103 died in the week ending March 20, before lockdown. 928 people died of flu or pneumonia in the last week of July -- The 7th consecutive week in which more people had died of flu or pneumonia than of COVID-19. While fewer than usual died in care homes and hospitals, 676 more died at home than average -- Experts say this is because people are staying away from the NHS out of fear. The ONS tells us we are now well below normal average deaths, so the government should cease with their stupidity in believing Marxist professors and end the lockdown. I thought the lockdown had ended, apart from a few local areas Have I got that wrong? I was thinking of coming to the UK at the end of next week Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 12, 2020 48 minutes ago, ricardo said: Yes very interesting Herman. It shows that the announcement that Scotland had no deaths for five weeks was playing fast and loose with the truth. It is also further confirmation that the ONS are likely to be the most accurate over time. The PHE method would have you as a Covid death if you ever tested positive this year and then lived for another 50 years. Obviously nonsensical. Takes 5000 deaths off the U.K.Covid death figures,according to the Telegraph Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said: I thought the lockdown had ended, apart from a few local areas Have I got that wrong? I was thinking of coming to the UK at the end of next week Not wrong, but over 1000 new infections a day, how does that compare with the Ice 😀 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jools 584 Posted August 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Van wink said: Takes 5000 deaths off the U.K.Covid death figures,according to the Telegraph I'll wager good money now that the figure will end up a lot higher than that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,491 Posted August 12, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Van wink said: Takes 5000 deaths off the U.K.Covid death figures,according to the Telegraph "That's good news for the families of the 5000 who have not died" (John Crace today) The real comparitor will be those excess death figures between countries once the virus has passed through (hopefully it does) Edited August 12, 2020 by sonyc 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 12, 2020 1 minute ago, sonyc said: "That's good news for the families of the 5000 who have not died" (John Crace today) Silly remark isn’t it. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,491 Posted August 12, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Van wink said: Silly remark isn’t it. It is in one sense but I think in another way he is simply explaining there is a human cost and that actual figures don't really matter. That's my reading of his comment anyway. Edited August 12, 2020 by sonyc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 12, 2020 I suspect most appreciate there is a human cost without his help. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted August 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, Jools said: end the lockdown. ah yes, that lockdown which only affects where you live.... Cromer isn't it ? maybe you could meet up with n#hand crank who claims frequent visits to West Runton odd how you cranks seem to get things wrong about what is happening in the UK - just hand crank once told us that he had been flat out dealing with 'track and trace', yet not a peep since but plenty of similar guff about how the government didn't mess up dealing with it the virus, and their constant attempts to lower the death toll strange folk these righty Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181 Posted August 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Van wink said: Not wrong, but over 1000 new infections a day, how does that compare with the Ice 😀 We had it down to just one case in the country, total, in mid June Then they opened up the border a little. Though there is testing at the border a couple of cases got through. There was 4 new cases today, I believe. One day last week there was 13. Just over a hundred, total We can squash it by closing the border, or imposing quarantine on everyone, but that would mean abandoning tourism. So now, over the last couple of days, the debate has been which way to go, or how to compromise best Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 12, 2020 If I was creating a list of which countries to apply quarantine to the U.K. would be on it with the number you have. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,345 Posted August 12, 2020 23 minutes ago, Jools said: If that's the case, Ricardo, the government should cease wrecking the economy any further... The ONS says that overall deaths are below average for the time of year for the seventh consecutive week and COVID-19 deaths are at a 19-week low --- In the week ending July 31 there were 193 deaths that had COVID-19 on the death certificate, which makes three months of falls since a weekly peak of 8,758 in April - It's the lowest figure since 103 died in the week ending March 20, before lockdown. 928 people died of flu or pneumonia in the last week of July -- The 7th consecutive week in which more people had died of flu or pneumonia than of COVID-19. While fewer than usual died in care homes and hospitals, 676 more died at home than average -- Experts say this is because people are staying away from the NHS out of fear. The ONS tells us we are now well below normal average deaths, so the government should cease with their stupidity in believing Marxist professors and end the lockdown. I still think we need to be extremely cautious. Reacting quickly to any sudden upticks will be key. A lot depends on people observing the rules. You can tell from on here that some people will continue ti be awkward. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,491 Posted August 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, Van wink said: I suspect most appreciate there is a human cost without his help. A bit like rearranging deckchairs though isn't it? It's excess deaths that will matter. Of course it's useful that countries measure the same but there's a phrase isn't there?...'comparisons are odious'. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, ricardo said: I still think we need to be extremely cautious. Reacting quickly to any sudden upticks will be key. A lot depends on people observing the rules. You can tell from on here that some people will continue ti be awkward. It’s odd that the virtue signallers are so inclined to spread the infection. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 12, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, sonyc said: A bit like rearranging deckchairs though isn't it? It's excess deaths that will matter. Of course it's useful that countries measure the same but there's a phrase isn't there?...'comparisons are odious'. When you are dealing with a pandemic comparisons are essential, but the value of them is determined by the quality and standardisation of the data.Excess deaths will be very important but the more you can drill down into the data the better it is Edited August 12, 2020 by Van wink Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,491 Posted August 12, 2020 Guided by the science VW. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 12, 2020 The science is evolving sonyc, hence the need for good data Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181 Posted August 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Van wink said: If I was creating a list of which countries to apply quarantine to the U.K. would be on it with the number you have. You mean Iceland would be on the list? We are on a few others, the Baltic countries all require quarantine from Iceland and Norway added us to their red list the last day or so Our incidence rate is above 20 per 100,000, which is what some countries look at when making these decisions Very difficult to make a genuine comparison of stats with our small population Here is the latest data, in English 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted August 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Van wink said: The science is evolving sonyc, hence the need for good data poor hand crank no vaccine will be found by spending time counting deaths - that is not the data required that is merely righties trying to exonerate the hapless government from the blame of so many deaths let's lop of 20 people from the number killed by Harold Shipman, and he won't seem so bad what obnoxious sickos these righty(s) are Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,491 Posted August 12, 2020 (edited) I'm probably more cynical on the whole than I used to be VW. An organisation I used to work for always talked up being evidenced based, using numbers for any decision (and its product was essentially people). It lost some of its heart and soul in the process, it's care, it's avowed values. Data is one thing (good too) but it's how it is used and interpreted that is the crux. Same with all governments (especially this one). The more you hear the words the less they convince. Not that you'd be too impressed but I'm more with Bill about figures. Overall, I'm probably more persuaded by 'the art than the science' if you get my drift. And I will be in the minority but it's what forms my personal politics (the how, the meaning etc). It's why too I am always interested in getting alternative views that challenge this thinking. Because I'm not saying my way of looking at the world is right, just that it tends to be my way. Will shut up about it now because I will get too deep into it! Edited August 12, 2020 by sonyc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,713 Posted August 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, Van wink said: It’s odd that the virtue signallers are so inclined to spread the infection. Not the virtue signallers again?! They are always causing trouble with their signalling and virtueing. Scumbags. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,491 Posted August 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Herman said: Not the virtue signallers again?! They are always causing trouble with their signalling and virtueing. Scumbags. I did wonder whether I was a virtual signaller seeing the comment! If so I'm not sure what I'm signalling of any good! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bill said: poor hand crank no vaccine will be found by spending time counting deaths - that is not the data required Well done Billy👍 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted August 12, 2020 Just now, Herman said: Not the virtue signallers again?! They are always causing trouble with their signalling and virtueing. Scumbags. remoaners, then lily livered pinkos, sneering metropolitan elite now where have I heard that sort of repetitive bleat that excuses the bleater from formulating an opinion " four legs good.... baa baa " Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, sonyc said: I did wonder whether I was a virtual signaller seeing the comment! If so I'm not sure what I'm signalling of any good! I think not. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted August 12, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Van wink said: Well done Billy👍 where's RTB ? or even bagster ? ps have you kept all those login details from former names you used, or is it just the recent ones perhaps that was why you were selected for 'track and trace' must have been a hefty phone bill calling from France or what that another one like Harlow, your non appearance at the war memorial, not knowing the A11 was dualled, your being a senior manager at the NHS.... etc.... and so many other little give aways whatever it is, do make sure you don't drop that book full of names and logins on your toe...ouch au revoir, M Barantineur Edited August 12, 2020 by Bill 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 12, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Bill said: remoaners, then lily livered pinkos, sneering metropolitan elite now where have I heard that sort of repetitive bleat that excuses the bleater from formulating an opinion " four legs good.... baa baa " Put the mask on Billy. Then tell us how virtuous you are👍 Edited August 12, 2020 by Van wink Share this post Link to post Share on other sites