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1 hour ago, Aggy said:

Why does being a risk to others mean you are “at risk” yourself?

Many young aren’t invulnerable, but the risk is absolutely minimal. 450 under 40 year olds is it who have died? You live with risk all the time. I could drive to work and get smashed by a lorry driver falling asleep. Doesn’t mean I have to worry myself about it for ever and never leave the house.

And it’s not as though there is no other infection that we live with normally. If you’re 85 and go to a football match in December, you could easily pick up “normal” flu and die. 

Nobody is saying twenty year olds should go round deliberately coughing in the faces of seventy year olds because there is minimal risk to the twenty year old. But at the same time, there needs to be a balance - and your varying response to higher risk over fifties being asked to ‘take one for the good of others’ compared to lower risk 20-40 year olds didn’t suggest much balance.

Fine, you think the risk is acceptable. At the moment I do not. 

We are obviously miles apart on this so there is no point deliberating further.

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If anyone thinks there are issues in Germany they  should be appalled  by the performance in the UK.   The systems and procedures iGermany had at the start are still way ahead of what the UK has now. Germany has had negligible excess death rwhereas. UK has one of the worst records in the world. People should be disgusted ashamed and embarrassed by the performance of the UK  which has been outperformed by many so called third world countries if they care about lives and jobs. The feeble efforts to distract and divert from the performance of the UK are shameful. 

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8 hours ago, ricardo said:

The latest R.K.I. report is not encouraging.

R 1.16

Cases sharply increasing thanks to numerous small outbreaks since easing lockdown. 

An interesting read

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-08-07-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

It’s a worrying picture, we really thought the Germans had this cracked.
An interesting feature of the initial outbreak in Germany was it was thought to have infected a younger fitter demographic than in the UK and the clinical outcome for those infected was quite positive. We are now seeing in the UK a marginal increase in infections which is not matched by the level of hospital admissions we saw for corresponding numbers early on. There are a number of proposed explanations for this, one being that the virus has weakened, but, this might be the German phenomenon where our current infections are amongst a younger fitter group of individuals.

 

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22 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It’s a worrying picture, we really thought the Germans had this cracked.
An interesting feature of the initial outbreak in Germany was it was thought to have infected a younger fitter demographic than in the UK and the clinical outcome for those infected was quite positive. We are now seeing in the UK a marginal increase in infections which is not matched by the level of hospital admissions we saw for corresponding numbers early on. There are a number of proposed explanations for this, one being that the virus has weakened, but, this might be the German phenomenon where our current infections are amongst a younger fitter group of individuals.

 

I think that's an interesting point. Spead in the UK also I suspect due largely to pubs and restaurants opening ie younger venues opening and extended family get togethers.

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You may have seen comparisons and claims about the performance of the US v the rest of the world.

You may also have heard the President claim the US is doing too many tests, as if you test more you will get more cases.... you may also understand that the US is less than 90 days away from the next election, so it's very important to the President that traditionally Republican voting States don't abandon him and elect Joe Biden instead.... so here's a glimpse of Democrat stronghold California, swing state Florida, and new swing state Arizona and Georgia and ruby red Texas. If Trump lost Texas he'd lose the election irrespective of what Florida, Arizona and Georgia do....

So first up is the USA, seems like good news, cases are falling now although the number of tests is falling too, which is a concern, but hospitalization are starting to fall and deaths, recently rising are falling again. 

Next California, the largest State with almost 40 million people. Testing is above the national average and steady at about 3,000/million/day with a positive test rate around 6%. Cases are falling quickly to below 200/million/day and hospitalizations are falling too to about 200 per million. There is still problem here, the focus has shifted to the Central Valley region which is much more rural, and happens to be more Republican.

Arizona had a huge problem and so they drove their testing up to about 2,000/million/day and their positive test rate has fallen from the high 20's to around 9%. Cases are falling quickly but still above 1,000/million/day, same with hospitalizations which are falling too but still above 2,000/million/day. 

Georgia is the state that is the home to the Center for Disease Control, so if anyone should have a handle on things it should be them... their testing is actually climbing just under 3,000/million/day and we are not seeing cases fall off significantly from a peak of over 300/million/per. So overall it's doing significant worse than California, but looking at the numbers it seems to be above board.  

Florida is the state who's Governor demanded an apology from New York in April for their Covid response, since then things have changed. They managed to get their testing up to the national average but look what happened then - it's fallen over the past two weeks to under 2,000/million/day with a positive test rate around 18%. Maybe as a result their case count is falling quickly..... but is it really? Their hospitalization rate has dropped from just over to just under 400/million, but that is still more than twice the national average.

Texas managed to get their testing up to the national average and oops look what happened then - it's way down over the past two weeks to only 1,500/million/day with a positive test rate around 20%. Maybe as a result their case count is falling..... but is it really? Their hospitalization rate has dropped from 400/million to 300/million, but that is still about one and a half times the national average.

So the question for these two critical States is - is someone cooking the books, or is this data accurate?

Arizona, George, Florida and Texas also states that refused to implement mask requirements or close bars, that is unit reality caught up with them, and Arizona has been the most aggressive fixing those loopholes. 

Covid US.jpg

Covid California.jpg

 

 

 

 

Covid Arizona.jpg

Covid Georgia.jpg

Covid Florida.jpg

Covid Texas.jpg

Edited by Surfer

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Interesting read Surfer, thanks. I would have thought that reducing testing to reduce apparent prevalence of CV19 would be one of the more obvious stunts that Trump and his merry men will be pulling over the coming months, made more noticeable  of course by his “you test more you find more” mantra, which in its simplest interpretation is arguable. 
What is noticeable  from the graphs you show is that it appears that the number of hospitalisations is begInning to fall, we see it here with the rate of infection static or gently rising but new hospitalisations down.

Am I correct in thinking that US citizens admitted to hospital with CV19 have their treatment cost covered by the State if they don’t have insurance? Is there a possibility that politicians are in some way influencing the number of admissions to paint a more rosy picture.

Edited by Van wink

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The last couple of posts are very reassuring, especially the swedish figures. 

I'd be interested in the same graphs for New York state as I believe that it (possibly with surrounding states) is the closest comparator we have other maybe than the greater Paris area

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2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

The last couple of posts are very reassuring, especially the swedish figures. 

I'd be interested in the same graphs for New York state as I believe that it (possibly with surrounding states) is the closest comparator we have other maybe than the greater Paris area

Yes the data is here https://covidtracking.com/data.  New York State looks like this - it's almost as if it's a different country. As you can see from the dotted line, their testing has stayed well above the US average even though new cases per million have fallen away. Fall off in New York and New England states is a big factor in why the US curves look the way they do, offsetting recent big increases in the South and West. 

As the Governor of New York said "it's like nobody learned anything from our experience"  - sounds rather familiar eh? 

Their New tests and New cases per day data puts the lie to the President's comment we only have more cases because we do more tests. While it is true that you won't be able to confirm that you have infected people in your population if you don't do any tests to find out, New York proves that if you continue to do a lot of testing does not mean that your case rate can't also fall away dramatically. I think the mayor of New York said this week that their test positivity rate was now around 1%, and so schools could reopen and remain open as long as it stayed under a 2% threshold. 

Once more we need to look to the media to dig deeper and get past the stupid headlines like "California now has the worst outbreak of Covid 19 in America" Well based on raw case count yes it does, but if you look at cases per million it's right at the US average. The question they should be asking is - why is testing falling off in states like Florida and Texas? How did New York contain the pandemic and what lessons can the State and Federal Governments learn from that?.... all too hard apparently for reporters to actually report on, so we will very likely continue with this fiasco for months to come. 

New York.jpg

Edited by Surfer

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6 hours ago, sonyc said:

I see there is also a piece in the Mail wondering if Sweden got it right. I think the Swedish expert is honest enough to say that no-one knew quite how to deal with the virus at the start (apparently no two potential pandemic viruses work in the same way), that there is no one right answer, and that they would have done things a bit differently, but only a bit, knowing what they know now.

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57 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

I see there is also a piece in the Mail wondering if Sweden got it right. I think the Swedish expert is honest enough to say that no-one knew quite how to deal with the virus at the start (apparently no two potential pandemic viruses work in the same way), that there is no one right answer, and that they would have done things a bit differently, but only a bit, knowing what they know now.

I've been impressed with the Swedish scientist (epidemiologist) Tegnell. He seems level headed and is even able to admit to his own possible miscalculations. How refreshing. I tend to agree too that it will perhaps only be known in a decade or certainly, many years time, which approach has been best. I did see a report that their economy had fared far better than other countries because they had not really locked down. Yet, as noted on here before, perhaps Swedish life and geography is so different so they are able to take a different approach (Tegnell also alluded before to the vulnerable and care sector mistakes).

I also like his comments about managing lockdowns in very specific ways. That seems measured. I live up north (semi rural) and where I live has the same rules as inner Manchester. Nearly 5m people affected currently too.

UK policy still feels quite broad brush and a little 'on the hoof' (though, I do sense an improvement from those early days). Sweden appears to have a longer term plan.

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6 hours ago, Surfer said:

Yes the data is here https://covidtracking.com/data.  New York State looks like this - it's almost as if it's a different country. As you can see from the dotted line, their testing has stayed well above the US average even though new cases per million have fallen away. Fall off in New York and New England states is a big factor in why the US curves look the way they do, offsetting recent big increases in the South and West. 

As the Governor of New York said "it's like nobody learned anything from our experience"  - sounds rather familiar eh? 

Their New tests and New cases per day data puts the lie to the President's comment we only have more cases because we do more tests. While it is true that you won't be able to confirm that you have infected people in your population if you don't do any tests to find out, New York proves that if you continue to do a lot of testing does not mean that your case rate can't also fall away dramatically. I think the mayor of New York said this week that their test positivity rate was now around 1%, and so schools could reopen and remain open as long as it stayed under a 2% threshold. 

Once more we need to look to the media to dig deeper and get past the stupid headlines like "California now has the worst outbreak of Covid 19 in America" Well based on raw case count yes it does, but if you look at cases per million it's right at the US average. The question they should be asking is - why is testing falling off in states like Florida and Texas? How did New York contain the pandemic and what lessons can the State and Federal Governments learn from that?.... all too hard apparently for reporters to actually report on, so we will very likely continue with this fiasco for months to come. 

New York.jpg

That's great thanks.  I'm not too up on US actions but I understand that the NY approach is quite like ours so the fact that the situation is improving is good news for us

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The teacher's union are dragging their heels on re-opening all schools by September. They have submitted a 25 page ransom note with 200 demands before they will allow classes. Demands such as bins should have kids. If you bin doesn't have a lid then the school won't open. Time to sack those that refuse to work. 

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1 minute ago, Rock The Boat said:

The teacher's union are dragging their heels on re-opening all schools by September. They have submitted a 25 page ransom note with 200 demands before they will allow classes. Demands such as bins should have kids. If you bin doesn't have a lid then the school won't open. Time to sack those that refuse to work. 

More true to say that Johnson/Cummings doesn't have a strategy for opening the schools safely beyond crossing their fingers and hoping not too many people dies as a result.

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34 minutes ago, BigFish said:

More true to say that Johnson/Cummings doesn't have a strategy for opening the schools safely beyond crossing their fingers and hoping not too many people dies as a result.

Your leader sent his kids back to school at the height of the outbreak 🤔

 

😜

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Honestly a bit stuck in the middle with all this covid talk. Been looking at Swedens experience recently and how with help from the t cells immunity, its very much on the wane there after no lockdown and no mask wearing. You then look at other places that had more drastic measures that are struggling.

Seems to me that we may actually be okay to be back to pretty much normal (Sweden levels) if we just have some decent surveillance to track and break up the clusters that appear and try encourage more outdoor things and non invasive measures. Masks in close settings like on public transport seem sensible but outside in a park or on the beach just seems like overkill.

If it does see a sustained increase then I really don't see a March/April style chaotic style outbreak since a lot has changed since then. Are we still trying to "flatten the curve" or are we on to "zero covid" now?

I have 1 side of the family who are happy to go on holiday with us to Wales and do some socialising within reason though not strictly abide by the rules and another side that won't walk in the park with us as "7 is too many and against the rules..." I think that maybe they just don't like us 😆. Been plenty of moaning about mask wearing while we've been away as well...

As if this country wasn't tribal enough with recent politics, I can see it getting so much worse in the coming months when unemployment really bites, a vaccine will likely become available and we'll know whether there is a "2nd wave" (or to be more correct, a resurgence of the first wave that was still lingering). No doubt it will all be "the other sides fault" as always!

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6 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

The teacher's union are dragging their heels on re-opening all schools by September. They have submitted a 25 page ransom note with 200 demands before they will allow classes. Demands such as bins should have kids. If you bin doesn't have a lid then the school won't open. Time to sack those that refuse to work. 

Good idea Einstein. Sack the teachers that won't work then don't have enough teachers to reopen the schools. 🤣

The government has literally had months to get the schools in a fit and safe state to reopen. The fact that we are still questioning if it is OK is not good. 

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Latest ONS data show total deaths running below long term average for the seventh week running.

Just over 2 percent of certificates mention Covid as a factor.

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8 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Honestly a bit stuck in the middle with all this covid talk. Been looking at Swedens experience recently and how with help from the t cells immunity, its very much on the wane there after no lockdown and no mask wearing. You then look at other places that had more drastic measures that are struggling.

Seems to me that we may actually be okay to be back to pretty much normal (Sweden levels) if we just have some decent surveillance to track and break up the clusters that appear and try encourage more outdoor things and non invasive measures. Masks in close settings like on public transport seem sensible but outside in a park or on the beach just seems like overkill.

I think I am on the same page as you. 

 Sweden is undoubtedly in a good place now.  Whether it was worth it is a matter of debate but worst fears have not materialised / were suppressed during summer and we would be foolish not to give careful thought to their experience. 

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15 minutes ago, Herman said:

Why is Sweden still being lauded as an example to follow? 

They followed a different path, no lockdown, no school closures etc, went for herd immunity. They were heavily criticised early on but now seem to be the poster boys.

Those who locked down quickly had fewer early caualties but now face more problems when it is eased ( Australia etc).

Germany 1200 new cases yesterday, Spain 1500. 

 

 

 

Edited by ricardo

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