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3 hours ago, Jools said:

 

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that bird has long flown, as far as you are concerned

Edited by Bill
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39 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Has this government been able to hide (or cover over) decisions that ordinarily they wouldn't have made outside of a national health crisis? And for the Tory voters on this thread (or government supporters) what is your view? Do you think it's simply what all government's do (politicians being mendacious sorts kinds of arguments) or are there things that makes you feel uncomfortable. Or do you not notice or feel sensitive to it at all? If a Labour administration was in power right now and doing similar things would you feel annoyed or exercised?

Or is this article so one sided you ignore it out of hand?

My sense is that Covid 19 has facilitated all kinds of decisions that seem to follow so quickly one after another, enough to overwhelm any opportunity to challenge... And that is before you take into account their handling of the crisis.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/07/its-taken-just-12-months-for-boris-johnson-to-create-a-government-of-sleaze?

The Brexiteers don’t care about jobs or lives so very much doubt they care about corruption. Nationalism is all they care about. Little wonder UK has worst death rate in Europe with their attitude to other people. 

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The right wing racists continue to bleat in denial as if having one of the worst death records in the world is something to be proud of. 

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24 minutes ago, ricardo said:

An interesting chart to show who is testing.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day

And percentage of positives found.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed

Some rapid increases across Europe

Worrying.

 

I fear Germany may be heading for some problems Ricardo. Did you spot T earlier?

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27 minutes ago, ricardo said:

An interesting chart to show who is testing.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day

And percentage of positives found.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed

Some rapid increases across Europe

Worrying.

 

Our testing numbers I've noticed are about 4 times that of France.

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4 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Our testing numbers I've noticed are about 4 times that of France.


Two times isn’t it? Still good to see.

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1 minute ago, Van wink said:


Two times isn’t it? Still good to see.

Thought I had seen c.70k for France over the last few days and 250k ish here daily. Might be wrong (source Worldometer site). Whatever, the UK is much more impressive in its testing than even 2 months ago. Unless that is, it's still tests 'delivered' or posted.

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13 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Thought I had seen c.70k for France over the last few days and 250k ish here daily. Might be wrong (source Worldometer site). Whatever, the UK is much more impressive in its testing than even 2 months ago. Unless that is, it's still tests 'delivered' or posted.

Yep fair play we have upped the testing regime significantly. I was going by Ricardo’s link, Uk tests around 2 per thousand, France about 1 per thousand.

Edited by Van wink

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45 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I fear Germany may be heading for some problems Ricardo. Did you spot T earlier?

😉

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43 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Our testing numbers I've noticed are about 4 times that of France.

Yes, the French positives now running at a much higher percentage of positives than us. The lack of serious testing may have led to a slow response to hotspots. The next few days will be interesting.

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8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Yes, the French positives now running at a much higher percentage of positives than us. The lack of serious testing may have led to a slow response to hotspots. The next few days will be interesting.

Quarantining returning holiday makers I reckon.

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Has anybody seen any statistics from any country regarding numbers of cases versus numbers of hospital admissions ?

I posted a statement from 2 front-line Italian doctors about, I don't know, 6 weeks (maybe longer) ago in which they stated that the virus was losing it's effectiveness and infected people they were testing had far less "viral load" than had been seen at the height of the crisis in Italy.

I wondered whether that is true for other countries, and the fact that the number of cases rising may not be as bad as it initially  seems ??

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12 hours ago, Van wink said:

I fear Germany may be heading for some problems Ricardo. Did you spot T earlier?

VW do you seriously want to make a comparison?  I see the UK and German news daily. The contrast between the competence of Germany and the incompetence of the UK is a shocking contrast. Germany has has progressional test track and trace with clear communication and a plan for dealing with outbreaks since February. The UK still hasn’t. And for some reason one of the worst death records in the world in the UK is deemed acceptable. It is truly bizarre. 

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2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Has anybody seen any statistics from any country regarding numbers of cases versus numbers of hospital admissions ?

I posted a statement from 2 front-line Italian doctors about, I don't know, 6 weeks (maybe longer) ago in which they stated that the virus was losing it's effectiveness and infected people they were testing had far less "viral load" than had been seen at the height of the crisis in Italy.

I wondered whether that is true for other countries, and the fact that the number of cases rising may not be as bad as it initially  seems ??

Thanks for bringing this issue back to the fore. I will be interested in researching this later in the weekend. I really hope it is losing its effectiveness of course. @Aggy posted a view in looking at the stats and infection rates and one potential line of thought he had (and I hope I'm not mis-quoting here) is that whilst the number of tests is at a high level we are seeing more positive cases and yet hospitalisation (and deaths) have not increased. One factor he questioned might be a possible weakening of the virus as one (or part) potential explanation.

Whether we remain a week or two behind Spain and France though and our numbers will shortly rise, we don't yet know.

Edited by sonyc
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1 hour ago, T said:

VW do you seriously want to make a comparison?  I see the UK and German news daily. The contrast between the competence of Germany and the incompetence of the UK is a shocking contrast. Germany has has progressional test track and trace with clear communication and a plan for dealing with outbreaks since February. The UK still hasn’t. And for some reason one of the worst death records in the world in the UK is deemed acceptable. It is truly bizarre. 

Were you banned or was it voluntary exile?

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26 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Thanks for bringing this issue back to the fore. I will be interested in researching this later in the weekend. I really hope it is losing its effectiveness of course. @Aggy posted a view in looking at the stats and infection rates and one potential line of thought he had (and I hope I'm not mis-quoting here) is that whilst the number of tests is at a high level we are seeing more positive cases and yet hospitalisation (and deaths) have not increased. One factor he questioned might be a possible weakening of the virus as one (or part) potential explanation.

Whether we remain a week or two behind Spain and France though and our numbers will shortly rise, we don't yet know.

I did put it forward as a potential possibility to explain infection numbers up but hospital admissions/deaths stable and even decreasing. I have no evidence to support that (and walked out of my last AS level biology exam after the minimum period you had to wait, without having bothered to open the paper - so no chance of explaining the science...) but who knows.

It seems to me though that if infections go up but serious cases don’t, then the only options are (1) that it’s weakening but still spreading as it always has, or (2) we’ve always had that level of “mild” infection (or a higher level of it) and we’re only finding out about it as a result of the increased testing while the more serious infections reduce/stay the same.

As far as I’m aware we haven’t changed how we record hospital admissions or deaths - but if  we now only use “died from” rather than “died with” or “admitted with” rather than “admitted because of” that might explain a reduction in percentage of deaths and hospital admissions vs infections. Seems unlikely in the case of hospital admissions, but perhaps more possible on the deaths.

Of course there’s also the chance that the “lag” in both hospital admissions and deaths is just longer than we had expected. Seems unlikely as it’s now been over a month since the early July lifting of restrictions, and even longer since we saw earlier loosening of restrictions, but it’s the only other possibility. Again, possibly deaths (which come later in the infection ‘cycle’ than admissions) might catch up but you’d expect to have seen more significant increases in hospital admissions by now I think.
 

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42 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Thanks for bringing this issue back to the fore. I will be interested in researching this later in the weekend. I really hope it is losing its effectiveness of course. @Aggy posted a view in looking at the stats and infection rates and one potential line of thought he had (and I hope I'm not mis-quoting here) is that whilst the number of tests is at a high level we are seeing more positive cases and yet hospitalisation (and deaths) have not increased. One factor he questioned might be a possible weakening of the virus as one (or part) potential explanation.

Whether we remain a week or two behind Spain and France though and our numbers will shortly rise, we don't yet know.

Yes, it would be very good news if true. Something worth keeping an eye on I think. I tried to do a bit of research on Spain because their case numbers have been rising for a while and should be being reflected in hospital admissions but I can't find the relevant statistics. I might try again later.

The number of positive tests per tests conducted has quite a wide variation across different countries (and the UK's is quite low) but could be explained by who is having the tests, ie if you are testing more of the general population who have no symptoms and have just decided to be tested, your figures are very likely to be better than those of a country who is only testing those people presenting with symptoms and/or frontline workers. 

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Do you really think people should be banned for being against racism and the loss of lives and jobs? But self imposed ban as a result of being extremely busy dealing with post lockdown pent up demand in my business. No doubt while some businesses are suffering there are some that are booming. In particular I’m picking up additional business due to the restrictions in the UK because of the self inflicted damage the UK from the poor handling of Covid and Brexit. Not what I want for the UK but clearly other have other priorities than jobs and lives. 

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14 hours ago, Van wink said:

I fear Germany may be heading for some problems Ricardo. 

The latest R.K.I. report is not encouraging.

R 1.16

Cases sharply increasing thanks to numerous small outbreaks since easing lockdown. 

An interesting read

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-08-07-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

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28 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Yes, it would be very good news if true. Something worth keeping an eye on I think. I tried to do a bit of research on Spain because their case numbers have been rising for a while and should be being reflected in hospital admissions but I can't find the relevant statistics. I might try again later.

The number of positive tests per tests conducted has quite a wide variation across different countries (and the UK's is quite low) but could be explained by who is having the tests, ie if you are testing more of the general population who have no symptoms and have just decided to be tested, your figures are very likely to be better than those of a country who is only testing those people presenting with symptoms and/or frontline workers. 

You could also add are you testing the same person 2,  3 or 4 times 

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

You could also add are you testing the same person 2,  3 or 4 times 

Yes, hadn't thought of that, but very true.

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21 hours ago, Aggy said:

My confusion is why you disparagingly used the phrase “civil liberties over health eh” when discussing others, but then seem to have a problem with the civil liberties of over 50s being infringed. 

The stats clearly show that on average over fifties are at greater risk than under fifties.

You seem to suggest it’s unfair for all over-fifties to be lumped into the same category, because not all over fifties are at high risk. Yet you have no problem with young healthy people being lumped in the same category as far more at risk people, despite young healthy people being at extremely low risk. 

(Ps I said months ago that there are serious ethical issues with allowing some sections of society to be released from lockdown but not others - I don’t for one second think all over fifties should be forced to stay at home. I’m just intrigued why it’s acceptable for over fifties to get annoyed about this, but people in their twenties and thirties who have hardly any risk at all of dying from covid are expected to just suck it up, have their lives ruined, are called “selfish and stupid” for daring to say anything about it.)

My issue is that indeed there is risk, whether it be to or from groups in society. For any statement to be made that the young are not at risk is not reasonable as they could be a risk to others.

And many young have taken it as read that they are invulnerable and not obeying the rules. For instance, every Saturday night there is a large gathering of late teenage early twenties youngsters at our local park that has a small wood attached. Naturally they drink and play music into the early hours. I think it is fair to assume there is very little social distancing.

They may well be OK but the risk they are taking of catching and carrying and maybe infecting someone is not worth it in my opinion.

 

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4 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

 

The number of positive tests per tests conducted has quite a wide variation across different countries (and the UK's is quite low) but could be explained by who is having the tests, ie if you are testing more of the general population who have no symptoms and have just decided to be tested, your figures are very likely to be better than those of a country who is only testing those people presenting with symptoms and/or frontline workers. 

Agreed and isn’t that more evidence to support the argument that basing government policy/“lockdown theory” on number of infections alone is a bit pointless.

One of the links I posted a few days ago split the community vs hospital testing and that showed, as you’d probably expect, hospital tests had gone down, hospital infections had gone down (because there are fewer admissions currently than a three months ago) but the percentage of infections vs tests had stayed pretty much the same. Community tests had gone up, community infection had gone down and the percentage of community tests had gone down slightly as well.

However, once you get to a point where your hospital testing is dropping down to pretty minimal numbers, I wouldn’t be shocked if even the percentage starts to rise as you widen community testing. Even now, the majority of people being tested or getting tests have some symptoms - chances of a completely asymptomatic person getting tested at the moment (in the community) is pretty low. But if we start doing more “random” tests, then we might find out that actually a lot more people has asymptomatic/very mild symptoms than we thought, so the percentage might jump up. So a rise in percentages even (which we haven’t got yet anyway) might not necessarily be a cause for concern either.
 

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13 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

My issue is that indeed there is risk, whether it be to or from groups in society. For any statement to be made that the young are not at risk is not reasonable as they could be a risk to others.

And many young have taken it as read that they are invulnerable and not obeying the rules. For instance, every Saturday night there is a large gathering of late teenage early twenties youngsters at our local park that has a small wood attached. Naturally they drink and play music into the early hours. I think it is fair to assume there is very little social distancing.

They may well be OK but the risk they are taking of catching and carrying and maybe infecting someone is not worth it in my opinion.

 

Why does being a risk to others mean you are “at risk” yourself?

Many young aren’t invulnerable, but the risk is absolutely minimal. 450 under 40 year olds is it who have died? You live with risk all the time. I could drive to work and get smashed by a lorry driver falling asleep. Doesn’t mean I have to worry myself about it for ever and never leave the house.

And it’s not as though there is no other infection that we live with normally. If you’re 85 and go to a football match in December, you could easily pick up “normal” flu and die. 

Nobody is saying twenty year olds should go round deliberately coughing in the faces of seventy year olds because there is minimal risk to the twenty year old. But at the same time, there needs to be a balance - and your varying response to higher risk over fifties being asked to ‘take one for the good of others’ compared to lower risk 20-40 year olds didn’t suggest much balance.

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6 hours ago, sonyc said:

Thanks for bringing this issue back to the fore. I will be interested in researching this later in the weekend. I really hope it is losing its effectiveness of course. @Aggy posted a view in looking at the stats and infection rates and one potential line of thought he had (and I hope I'm not mis-quoting here) is that whilst the number of tests is at a high level we are seeing more positive cases and yet hospitalisation (and deaths) have not increased. One factor he questioned might be a possible weakening of the virus as one (or part) potential explanation.

Whether we remain a week or two behind Spain and France though and our numbers will shortly rise, we don't yet know.

The virus weakening is a possible explanation but with so many explanations for the growing differences between recorded infections and recorded deaths/hospitalisations its probably wishful thinking. 

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35 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

The virus weakening is a possible explanation but with so many explanations for the growing differences between recorded infections and recorded deaths/hospitalisations its probably wishful thinking. 

I accept that there may be a lot of explanations Bb. But at least the fact that the virus may be weakening has been previously endorsed by Italian doctors with as much experience as anybody of it, surely makes it a better possibility than some other explanations ???

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