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They never stopped it. All the way through people were freely flying around. 

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

The failure to curtail flights from Milan in those early stages always seemed like a serious mistake. I couldnt understand the logic of the scientific advice at the time and still don't. 

The thought was that as testing would not pick up those who were in the early stages, it was not cost effective.

However I think that was a retrospective take on it, as it was part of the then lackadaisical approach being taken.

Check out why the fat fraud allowed the Cheltenham Festival to go ahead, why he took 12 days off i that crucial period in Feb, why he failed to attend 5 vital COBRA meetings. Not interested

When other countries were taking this very serious, implementing procedures put in place previously Fatso was spouting sh yte at some hos[ital photo op where he bragged about shaking hands with corona virus patients

the airport scandal' was simply one part of a wider dereliction of duty - and it's been a shambles ever since

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7 minutes ago, Bill said:

The thought was that as testing would not pick up those who were in the early stages, it was not cost effective.

However I think that was a retrospective take on it, as it was part of the then lackadaisical approach being taken.

Check out why the fat fraud allowed the Cheltenham Festival to go ahead, why he took 12 days off i that crucial period in Feb, why he failed to attend 5 vital COBRA meetings. Not interested

When other countries were taking this very serious, implementing procedures put in place previously Fatso was spouting sh yte at some hos[ital photo op where he bragged about shaking hands with corona virus patients

the airport scandal' was simply one part of a wider dereliction of duty - and it's been a shambles ever since

Tend to agree with this - plus undoubtedly the number of locally transmitted cases was already very very much larger than any 'imports' ergo any 'flight quarantine ' would have made little effect.

The real question is why we didn't fully lock down 2 weeks earlier. Everything else is small beer by comparison.

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2 hours ago, Van wink said:

Medicine told the MPs that they calculated up to 10,000 infected people, largely from Spain, France and Italy - including families returning from half-term breaks - imported Covid-19 into the UK. 
This was confirmed by Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser, who pointed to evidence that hundreds of different strains of Covid-19 were brought into the UK after the Government abandoned special measures for international arrivals on March 13.”

I was not surprised at all to read this because it was well trailed on here in many posts I seem to remember. Certainly there was a very early case, possibly one of the first 10 positive cases, (Ilkley) where the woman tested had returned from a ski trip in northern Italy. Other similar sources were referenced in the press.

Yet when challenged at those TV press conferences did we not learn from the spokesperson that the scientific guidance was not compelling? I think it may have been Patel or Hancock dismissing the question, but I can't recall.

Edited by sonyc

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1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Tend to agree with this - plus undoubtedly the number of locally transmitted cases was already very very much larger than any 'imports' ergo any 'flight quarantine ' would have made little effect.

The real question is why we didn't fully lock down 2 weeks earlier. Everything else is small beer by comparison.

It was the approach that guided the action

A mindset that had previously seen nursing numbers fall dramatically, as the extra charge caused by the cut in bursaries was felt, the running down of PPE stocks and even the cut in border force staff.

The drastic cuts in public expenditure meant that should something like this happen, the failures and inabilities to cope were not aberrations but the inevitable consequence of such behaviour. Those cuts were also the cause of a previous exercise to 'stress test' the system, being ignored,

The events in early spring were not an unexpected blow out on the motorway, but the result of driving on four bald remoulds after ignoring pressure tests which  had shown those tyres to be wrongly inflated. Even the spare tyre was missing as it had not been replaced.

Send not for whom the fault lies, it lies with us.... who not only stood by those cuts, but supported them in the ballot box.

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11 minutes ago, Bill said:

A mindset that had previously seen nursing numbers fall dramatically, as the extra charge caused by the cut in bursaries was felt, the running down of PPE stocks and even the cut in border force staff.

I'm hopeful (perhaps unrealistically) that any future UK government never underfunds it's health service again. I hope there is learning about what is truly important in public administration....if you don't have good health, it restricts what you can do. We should fund public services well. But, this is far too naive?

Instead, we've seen pay freezes for nurses for a long time (3 years was it?) and numbers falling, exacerbated by Brexit, bursaries changed to loans (incidentally at interest rates of between 5.4% and 6.1% when the bank base rate has been around or below 1% for a decade).

It should be reviewed / looked back upon as a true scandal when people learn that NHS staff had to crowd fund for PPE.

Yet Bill, still... we are seeing parallel structures being formed alongside the NHS...track and test by large private sector companies like Serco, contracts offered outside of the NHS (and a recent vote passed not to protect it from external influence).

All of this structure is divorced from local residents, local public health and local communities. It's serious. Local services are being eviscerated. This includes other services.... (the police to give an example). 

There are consequences still to emerge for the whole of society putting it mildly. And what is the vision or even a realistic short term strategy? Don't tell me "Build, build, build". That is the opposite of course to what is happening (marketeers often tell you the opposite of what is reality).

 

 

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And who is to blame, for Tory cnts being Try cnts  /

The halfwits around us, that's who

People who seem unable, and are unwilling, to think for themselves.

Look at the US who probably has the most incompetent and stupid leader of any country, and yet as they drop like flies through the virus there are still those willing to back someone with absolutely NO redeeming feature. Would you want your teenage daughter working in an office with him ?

Similarly we have another lying incompetent, up to his neck in sleaze and corruption. Would you want your wife working in an office with him ?

Whatever damage this virus has done to the country, it will never reach the heights caused by pig ignorant stupidity

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2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Tend to agree with this - plus undoubtedly the number of locally transmitted cases was already very very much larger than any 'imports' ergo any 'flight quarantine ' would have made little effect.

The real question is why we didn't fully lock down 2 weeks earlier. Everything else is small beer by comparison.

Yes indeed, although I would say everything else except the complete failure to stock up on PPE which should have started in February and since the whole government response was apparently predicated on stopping the 'NHS being overwhelmed' you've have thought that it was a pretty obvious thing to have discussed and implemented right at the very start - perhaps at one of the five early COBRA meetings that Johnson couldn't be bothered to attend??

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47 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Yes indeed, although I would say everything else except the complete failure to stock up on PPE which should have started in February and since the whole government response was apparently predicated on stopping the 'NHS being overwhelmed' you've have thought that it was a pretty obvious thing to have discussed and implemented right at the very start - perhaps at one of the five early COBRA meetings that Johnson couldn't be bothered to attend??

I have a different take. The two main issues as i see them being   (a)  not protecting the vulnerable, especially in care homes, correctly and (b) not putting more resources into track and trace immediately (ie jan-feb) as this is where Germany's relative success stemmed from. 

I could be persuaded on PPE but I would need to see evidence that a deficiency caused disproportionate infection in a hospital environment and I am not sure that this exists. I speak in aggregate terms, each individual case, of course, being a disaster to the individual.

Lockdown is the bluntest of instruments. Doing it earlier  will probably have saved lives overall but if we had sorted out (a) and (b) it should not have been necessary. We can see  some evidence for this in figures throughout Europe where lockdowns have eased but deaths have stayed suppressed or in Sweden.

 

 

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4 hours ago, ricardo said:

The failure to curtail flights from Milan in those early stages always seemed like a serious mistake. I couldnt understand the logic of the scientific advice at the time and still don't. 

We were told at the time that we were following the scientific advice. If that;s true then the advice was nuts. Plainly obvious to a ten year-old even that if you allow people in from infected areas then they would spread the virus.

At work we had a colleague return from Milan in the middle of March and they had to quarantine at home for 14 days. If the scientists thought that everybody coming in were quarantining then they were sadly mistaken. 

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3 hours ago, Bill said:

It was the approach that guided the action

A mindset that had previously seen nursing numbers fall dramatically, as the extra charge caused by the cut in bursaries was felt, the running down of PPE stocks and even the cut in border force staff.

The drastic cuts in public expenditure meant that should something like this happen, the failures and inabilities to cope were not aberrations but the inevitable consequence of such behaviour. Those cuts were also the cause of a previous exercise to 'stress test' the system, being ignored,

The events in early spring were not an unexpected blow out on the motorway, but the result of driving on four bald remoulds after ignoring pressure tests which  had shown those tyres to be wrongly inflated. Even the spare tyre was missing as it had not been replaced.

Send not for whom the fault lies, it lies with us.... who not only stood by those cuts, but supported them in the ballot box.

Clearly none of this is true. The NHS in March was running at a level needed to deal with the normal situation at the beginning of Springtime. Which isn't to say that it wouldn't be nice to reduce waiting lists for procedures but the fact is that the NHS was coping with a normal situation. I doubt there is a major health system anywhere in the world where there is idle capacity waiting just in case requirements might spike. That would, in fact, be a waste of valuable resources and a situation very few countries would be able to fund.

The corona virus blind-sided every country in the world and everyone had to learn from their mistakes as they went along. Every country was ill-equipped and we saw a huge global rise in demand for medical supplies and equipment that manufacturers struggled to meet demand.

Even though we are almost six months on from corona appearing on the global radar, there is still no global agreement of the best procedure to deal with this virus in everything from testing, tracing, medical care and treatment. There is still a long learning curve to be gone through before we can say we have this problem beaten

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12 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

We were told at the time that we were following the scientific advice. If that;s true then the advice was nuts. Plainly obvious to a ten year-old even that if you allow people in from infected areas then they would spread the virus.

At work we had a colleague return from Milan in the middle of March and they had to quarantine at home for 14 days. If the scientists thought that everybody coming in were quarantining then they were sadly mistaken. 

You are probably correct but by March it was probably a little too late. It was the February half term that was the issue I suspect 

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31 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I have a different take. The two main issues as i see them being   (a)  not protecting the vulnerable, especially in care homes, correctly and (b) not putting more resources into track and trace immediately (ie jan-feb) as this is where Germany's relative success stemmed from. 

I could be persuaded on PPE but I would need to see evidence that a deficiency caused disproportionate infection in a hospital environment and I am not sure that this exists. I speak in aggregate terms, each individual case, of course, being a disaster to the individual.

Lockdown is the bluntest of instruments. Doing it earlier  will probably have saved lives overall but if we had sorted out (a) and (b) it should not have been necessary. We can see  some evidence for this in figures throughout Europe where lockdowns have eased but deaths have stayed suppressed or in Sweden.

 

 

I think this is fair comment but the PPE issue is relevant both in its own terms but also in relation to your point (a). Staff were struggling with adequate protection. There were countless care home managers reporting at the peak about availability and cost. It's why we saw a whole cottage industry of home made garments being made for them in local situations.

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Chart

This looks fairly static to me.

The next few days should tell us if there is really any lift off.

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1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

You are probably correct but by March it was probably a little too late. It was the February half term that was the issue I suspect 

Now you mention it, the colleague was on school half-term and so that would have been mid-Feb when the Carnival was on.

I raised the issue with our senior management at the time as wanting to know what the company planned to do. I was told in no uncertain terms that to single out individuals would be to victimise them and I should therefore keep such comments to myself. Such was the level of thinking in mid-Feb.

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14 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Clearly none of this is true. The NHS in March was running at a level needed to deal with the normal situation at the beginning of Springtime. Which isn't to say that it wouldn't be nice to reduce waiting lists for procedures but the fact is that the NHS was coping with a normal situation. I doubt there is a major health system anywhere in the world where there is idle capacity waiting just in case requirements might spike. That would, in fact, be a waste of valuable resources and a situation very few countries would be able to fund.

The corona virus blind-sided every country in the world and everyone had to learn from their mistakes as they went along. Every country was ill-equipped and we saw a huge global rise in demand for medical supplies and equipment that manufacturers struggled to meet demand.

Even though we are almost six months on from corona appearing on the global radar, there is still no global agreement of the best procedure to deal with this virus in everything from testing, tracing, medical care and treatment. There is still a long learning curve to be gone through before we can say we have this problem beaten

More misinformation from hand crank/BB to try and distract from a massive failure by the righties

"nursing numbers fall dramatically," true, the evidence is there'

extra charge caused by the cut in bursaries was felt' true, check with evidence from the RCN

'the running down of PPE stocks' true

'cut in border force staff. ' true

there is loads of spare capacity in the NHS as so much of it is dependent upon ..... emergencies happening - hence the name and something they have no control over ie the volume of cases

you don't live in the UK, and you give yourself away by posting in the same way as hand crank/BB, misrepresentation and lying

 

 

 

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Goodness me.

Some people are ludicrous. There is widespread and general opinion that this Government was too slow and too blundering in its initial response. And thats being kind.

How can anyone defend what had happened?

People who continue to use politics over peoples health and lives need locking up.

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21 hours ago, sonyc said:

Thanks. I enjoy the stats analysis. I was reading that Guardian article and how concerned scientists and health experts feel (about how close they sense they are to sharper increases). This kind of article seems to be appearing a lot in the media so I 'take the temperature' from these.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-cases-in-england-arent-rising-heres-why/
 

Interesting stats based one (lots of graphs!) I read earlier today (article from 2 August). From CEBM, linked with Uni of Oxford. Not sure the first few graphs are really needed to explain the point they make using the final graph, but interesting all the same.

Basically come to the conclusion that percentage of positive infections out of tests done in care homes and hospitals is dropping slightly. Percentage of infections from tests done in the community is staying basically the same (“flatlining”). So the percentage of positive tests is the same/slightly decreasing and the increase in infections is a result of the increased testing.

Mentions also that Leicester, put into stricter lockdown than the rest of the country for quite a while, was doing more tests than anywhere else in the country at the start of July. Hardly surprising therefore they had more cases.

Edited by Aggy

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Picking back up on a point I made previously, I really hope the government is basing the reintroduction of stricter measures on more than just increased number of infections - and that they make that information public pretty soon.

The more articles that come out like the one in my post above,  evidencing that the increased infections are merely a result of increased testing (and suggesting the percentage of positive tests is actually the same/decreasing), the more I worry increasing lockdown restrictions is going to have a big negative impact on the testing.

People will start to think they’d rather not get tested. If you’ve got mild symptoms only and the hospital admissions and deaths aren’t going up, why would you get tested and risk lockdown? There are good reasons of course (helping the track and trace, generally just collecting stats so we can get a grip of the real situation) - but if people think the government is solely imposing stricter restrictions because of literally just doing more tests (rather than actual increase in infections) many people simply won’t get tested and that “solves” the problem.

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6 hours ago, ricardo said:

Chart

This looks fairly static to me.

The next few days should tell us if there is really any lift off.

As ever it's the random testing of the whole population that matters with a disease that can be largely asymptomatic. Self-selecting people to test will clearly skew results.

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This is what is exercising minds, it’s a pandemic, we need to keep a very close eye on what’s happening in Europe.

IMG_0050.png

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3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

This is what is exercising minds, it’s a pandemic, we need to keep a very close eye on what’s happening in Europe.

IMG_0050.png

Johnson/Cummings haven't got a grip on what is happening in England yet.......that would be the place to start.

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5 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Johnson/Cummings haven't got a grip on what is happening in England yet.......that would be the place to start.

I’m not referring to those two clowns, I’m referring to the epidemiologists.

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At a slight tangent there was a good discussion on radio today about coastal towns and how they are coping with the influx of tourists. St Ives and Swanage for example are now getting numbers they haven't experienced for decades and, although a bit snobby, not only the quantity but the quality was being questioned. Is this the same in Norfolk or are people staying away and keeping out of the way?

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1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

Goodness me.

Some people are ludicrous. There is widespread and general opinion that this Government was too slow and too blundering in its initial response. And thats being kind.

How can anyone defend what had happened?

People who continue to use politics over peoples health and lives need locking up.

There are those on here that will criticise the government when the sun goes down in the evening and some that will praise it when the sun returns in the morning.

Others prefer a different approach bit I am not sure that anyone has given an unqualified defence over the last few pages.

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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5 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

There are those on here that will criticise the government when the sun goes down in the evening

ah yes, the old 'tribalism' misdirection gets dragged out - when there is no defence

the government have not failed, despite all the evidence since - and the comments by scientists, and even the government themselves

Barbie Boy................................our own Comical Ali

Edited by Bill

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11 minutes ago, Herman said:

At a slight tangent there was a good discussion on radio today about coastal towns and how they are coping with the influx of tourists. St Ives and Swanage for example are now getting numbers they haven't experienced for decades and, although a bit snobby, not only the quantity but the quality was being questioned. Is this the same in Norfolk or are people staying away and keeping out of the way?

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/outrage-after-wells-beach-car-park-wait-1-6776265

plenty of sympathetic comments 😛

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11 minutes ago, Herman said:

At a slight tangent there was a good discussion on radio today about coastal towns and how they are coping with the influx of tourists. St Ives and Swanage for example are now getting numbers they haven't experienced for decades and, although a bit snobby, not only the quantity but the quality was being questioned. Is this the same in Norfolk or are people staying away and keeping out of the way?

North Norfolk coast is heaving, we will undoubtedly  be seeing number rise here as a result.

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41 minutes ago, Van wink said:

This is what is exercising minds, it’s a pandemic, we need to keep a very close eye on what’s happening in Europe.

IMG_0050.png

But what does it show? As per figures on France I posted yesterday, the percentage of positive infections per tests done there is decreasing. They’ve doubled the number of tests and have... you guessed it... double the number of infections. Does that mean twice as many people are infected now as a month ago or did we just not know about it? And if there were the same (or more) people infected a month ago and hospitalisation and deaths aren’t going up, then why are we concerned that we now know more have (and probably had) it?

Edited by Aggy

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