ricardo 7,239 Posted August 2, 2020 2 hours ago, Van wink said: The figure for Norwich is wrong, which makes me wonder about the other data BBC site, official numbers from Gov.UK dashboard. area https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 2, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, ricardo said: BBC site, official numbers from Gov.UK dashboard. area https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 I’m not doubting that those are the quoted figures Ricardo, but I know that the figure should be higher. A bit odd!! Edited August 2, 2020 by Van wink Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted August 2, 2020 17 minutes ago, Van wink said: I’m not doubting that those are the quoted figures Ricardo, but I know that the figure should be higher. A bit odd!! Yes, maybe a timing delay? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, ricardo said: Yes, maybe a timing delay? Possibly Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,447 Posted August 2, 2020 4 hours ago, Jools said: I'm curious, so I have to ask: Does anybody here at the Pink'Un know of anyone who has died from the virus or had the virus and survived? I believe Canary Dan had symptoms and reported on this messageboard and explained his symptoms and hospitalisation, indeed how he was a very healthy bloke but it still knocked him hard. I believe also a couple of people have lost their mothers in care homes (as i did too at the end of January and I do not believe she had the symptoms but was extremely frail). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,691 Posted August 2, 2020 (edited) I'm curious as to the view of others in getting the schools largely back in about 4 weeks .. and the costs we must all bear to do it. The childrens education and futures are paramount. I'm tempted to throw the whole country back into full-lock known for August.. as tough (& no Cummings excuses) as ever in an attempt to get the virus to effectively zero before the kids return nationally. Yes unpopular, but else we will keep stumbling along into the winter with even higher costs. Edited August 2, 2020 by Yellow Fever Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BigFish 1,975 Posted August 2, 2020 On 01/08/2020 at 14:54, Barbe bleu said: I wonder how much this was discussed. You could probably sanitize an area, say Cornwall, with a massive influx of resources and isolation until vaccine and then move outwards. Question is would the regional economy survive and would the resources not be better spent elsewhere. The thing is we don't know and we don't know because of the lack of transparency in the governments decision making. The only way to enable regional economies to survive in the absence of a vaccine is to adopt a zero Covid approach. It is the best use of resources, and Sunak promised he would do whatever it takes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 804 Posted August 3, 2020 12 hours ago, BigFish said: The thing is we don't know and we don't know because of the lack of transparency in the governments decision making. The only way to enable regional economies to survive in the absence of a vaccine is to adopt a zero Covid approach. It is the best use of resources, and Sunak promised he would do whatever it takes. Zero covid sounds great but its ridiculously hard to achieve. Even New Zealand with all its advantages is struggling to get there. Most nations are now following the Swedish model and just accepting some minor spread but trying to confine it to the less vulnerable population. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted August 3, 2020 14 hours ago, Yellow Fever said: I'm curious as to the view of others in getting the schools largely back in about 4 weeks .. and the costs we must all bear to do it. The childrens education and futures are paramount. I'm tempted to throw the whole country back into full-lock known for August.. as tough (& no Cummings excuses) as ever in an attempt to get the virus to effectively zero before the kids return nationally. Yes unpopular, but else we will keep stumbling along into the winter with even higher costs. the problem with the thought of zero virus is that it is not in our hands the pandemic of 1918 died out of its own volition. As we don't have the resources to test everyone we don't know who is a carrier and could therefore trigger another outbreak Without a foolproof vaccination the only way you can have zero virus is when all those who are possible carriers have died - the rest is just wishful thinking Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BigFish 1,975 Posted August 3, 2020 2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said: Zero covid sounds great but its ridiculously hard to achieve. Even New Zealand with all its advantages is struggling to get there. Most nations are now following the Swedish model and just accepting some minor spread but trying to confine it to the less vulnerable population. All true @Barbe bleu, but the point is that as a stretch target it diminishes community transmission significantly even if it doesn't eradicate the virus totally. ONS estimates that the current regime is resulting in c4k infections per day so obviously isn't working in England but Scotland is doing nicely with a firmer approach. Oh, and the current English approach has torched the economy in any case. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,691 Posted August 3, 2020 3 hours ago, Bill said: the problem with the thought of zero virus is that it is not in our hands the pandemic of 1918 died out of its own volition. As we don't have the resources to test everyone we don't know who is a carrier and could therefore trigger another outbreak Without a foolproof vaccination the only way you can have zero virus is when all those who are possible carriers have died - the rest is just wishful thinking You will never get zero - but as Big F notes a near zero target - not bumbling along as we are with 1000 or so well dispersed waiting to explode. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 804 Posted August 3, 2020 49 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: You will never get zero - but as Big F notes a near zero target - not bumbling along as we are with 1000 or so well dispersed waiting to explode. Thats the path that spain is following. Deaths are/appear to be/might be well down at the moment so might not be the worst thing. Can we protect the venerable though? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted August 3, 2020 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said: Thats the path that spain is following. Deaths are/appear to be/might be well down at the moment so might not be the worst thing. Can we protect the venerable though? I would prefer that they concentrate on the vulnerable personally.😁 Edited August 3, 2020 by ricardo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, ricardo said: I would prefer that thet concentrate on the vulnerable personally.😁 But there is so much wisdom amongst the venerable, surely they need to be protected as well😀 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Graham Paddons Beard 2,353 Posted August 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said: Thats the path that spain is following. Deaths are/appear to be/might be well down at the moment so might not be the worst thing. Can we protect the venerable though? Sod the venerable . They have it too cushy already . 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PurpleCanary 5,531 Posted August 3, 2020 20 minutes ago, Graham Paddons Beard said: Sod the venerable . They have it too cushy already . I agree. But of course the very select few of us who are actually venerated😇 need and deserve the most careful protection... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted August 3, 2020 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Graham Paddons Beard said: Sod the venerable . They have it too cushy already . what about the meek........................... they never get much of a deal blessed are the meek Edited August 3, 2020 by Bill Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Graham Paddons Beard 2,353 Posted August 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Bill said: it's the meek..... they never get much of a deal blessed are the meek Did you say the Cheese makers? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted August 3, 2020 you can shut up.......big nose 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 804 Posted August 3, 2020 38 minutes ago, ricardo said: I would prefer that they concentrate on the vulnerable personally.😁 This virus is a new beginning. Why would we want to save the less than venerable? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted August 3, 2020 I didn't realise Venereal Disease was so widespread in Norfolk. Bunch of non douche bags Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted August 3, 2020 It is I saw a couple of VD germs crossing the road the other day... almost run over they were one said to the other " phew, I was nearly a gonna 'ere " Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 3, 2020 24 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said: I didn't realise Venereal Disease was so widespread in Norfolk. Bunch of non douche bags Venerable Disease is quite common on here. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted August 3, 2020 Taking a bung is known Venables Disease Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted August 3, 2020 The number of positive tests is up a bit today but still difficult to be certain if this is or isn't a function of higher testing. See latest data. https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted August 3, 2020 14 minutes ago, ricardo said: The number of positive tests is up a bit today but still difficult to be certain if this is or isn't a function of higher testing. See latest data. https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/ I think its called a trend Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,447 Posted August 3, 2020 17 minutes ago, ricardo said: The number of positive tests is up a bit today but still difficult to be certain if this is or isn't a function of higher testing. See latest data. https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/ Looking at those graphs then testing has greatly increased from May through to July whereas new case numbers actually fell in the same period. The lockdown being eased in early July with a lag of 3/4 weeks and you can see the numbers increasing. I believe we can expect increases of over 1000 and probably even up to 2000 very soon. It seems that the trends are there to see for us in France, Spain.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 3, 2020 56 minutes ago, sonyc said: Looking at those graphs then testing has greatly increased from May through to July whereas new case numbers actually fell in the same period. The lockdown being eased in early July with a lag of 3/4 weeks and you can see the numbers increasing. I believe we can expect increases of over 1000 and probably even up to 2000 very soon. It seems that the trends are there to see for us in France, Spain.... And what makes it worse is we never got our level of community infection sufficiently under control before we started to release. I don’t think there is much doubt what is going to happen here, our salvation will rest in whether this period has bought sufficient time to establish a decent track and trace service properly integrated with DPH, sufficient testing capacity and a governance regime that inspires confidence and compliance. Mmm... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aggy 739 Posted August 3, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, sonyc said: Looking at those graphs then testing has greatly increased from May through to July whereas new case numbers actually fell in the same period. The lockdown being eased in early July with a lag of 3/4 weeks and you can see the numbers increasing. I believe we can expect increases of over 1000 and probably even up to 2000 very soon. It seems that the trends are there to see for us in France, Spain.... Hospital admissions lag isn’t 3-4 weeks. 8-11 days on average between catching it, showing symptoms and being hospitalised. According to Ricardo’s graphs, infections started rising over a month ago, yet hospital admissions continue to drop. In the same time period, the seven day average number of tests carried out has continued to go up. So we’ve had 4 weeks of increasing infections, 4 weeks of increasing tests, but 4 weeks of reduced hospital admissions despite it taking only 1-1.5 weeks to be hospitalised after catching it (on average - so some even earlier than that). Either suggests to me that it’s down to the increased testing, or the virus has become a lot weaker than it was before. Edited August 3, 2020 by Aggy Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 3, 2020 The 8-11 days between infection and hospitalisation sounds a little low to me Aggy, can I ask where those figures are from? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites