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10 minutes ago, ricardo said:

BBC site, official numbers from Gov.UK dashboard.

area

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

I’m not doubting that those are the quoted figures Ricardo, but I know that the figure should be higher. A bit odd!! 

Edited by Van wink

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17 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I’m not doubting that those are the quoted figures Ricardo, but I know that the figure should be higher. A bit odd!! 

Yes, maybe a timing delay?

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4 hours ago, Jools said:

I'm curious, so I have to ask: Does anybody here at the Pink'Un know of anyone who has died from the virus or had the virus and survived?

I believe Canary Dan had symptoms and reported on this messageboard and explained his symptoms and hospitalisation, indeed how he was a very healthy bloke but it still knocked him hard. I believe also a couple of people have lost their mothers in care homes (as i did too at the end of January and I do not believe she had the symptoms but was extremely frail).

 

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I'm curious as to the view of others in getting the schools largely back in about 4 weeks .. and the costs we must all bear to do it. The childrens education and futures are paramount.

I'm tempted to throw the whole country back into full-lock known for August.. as tough (& no Cummings excuses) as ever in an attempt to get the virus to effectively zero before the kids return nationally.

Yes unpopular, but else we will keep stumbling along into the winter with even higher costs.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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On 01/08/2020 at 14:54, Barbe bleu said:

I wonder how much this was discussed.  You could probably sanitize an area, say Cornwall, with a massive influx of resources and isolation until vaccine and then move outwards.

Question is would the regional economy survive and would the resources not be better spent elsewhere. 

The thing is we don't know and we don't know because of the lack of transparency in the governments decision making. The only way to enable regional economies to survive in the absence of a vaccine is to adopt a zero Covid approach. It is the best use of resources, and Sunak promised he would do whatever it takes.

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12 hours ago, BigFish said:

The thing is we don't know and we don't know because of the lack of transparency in the governments decision making. The only way to enable regional economies to survive in the absence of a vaccine is to adopt a zero Covid approach. It is the best use of resources, and Sunak promised he would do whatever it takes.

Zero covid sounds great but its ridiculously hard to achieve. Even New Zealand with all its advantages is struggling to get there.  Most nations are now following the Swedish model and just accepting some minor spread but trying to confine it to the less vulnerable population. 

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14 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm curious as to the view of others in getting the schools largely back in about 4 weeks .. and the costs we must all bear to do it. The childrens education and futures are paramount.

I'm tempted to throw the whole country back into full-lock known for August.. as tough (& no Cummings excuses) as ever in an attempt to get the virus to effectively zero before the kids return nationally.

Yes unpopular, but else we will keep stumbling along into the winter with even higher costs.

the problem with the thought of zero virus is that it is not in our hands

the pandemic of 1918 died out of its own volition.

As we don't have the resources to test everyone we don't know who is a carrier and could therefore trigger another outbreak

Without a foolproof vaccination the only way you can have zero virus is when all those who are possible carriers have died - the rest is just wishful thinking

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2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Zero covid sounds great but its ridiculously hard to achieve. Even New Zealand with all its advantages is struggling to get there.  Most nations are now following the Swedish model and just accepting some minor spread but trying to confine it to the less vulnerable population. 

All true @Barbe bleu, but the point is that as a stretch target it diminishes community transmission significantly even if it doesn't eradicate the virus totally. ONS estimates that the current regime is resulting in c4k infections per day so obviously isn't working in England but Scotland is doing nicely with a firmer approach. Oh, and the current English approach has torched the economy in any case.

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3 hours ago, Bill said:

the problem with the thought of zero virus is that it is not in our hands

the pandemic of 1918 died out of its own volition.

As we don't have the resources to test everyone we don't know who is a carrier and could therefore trigger another outbreak

Without a foolproof vaccination the only way you can have zero virus is when all those who are possible carriers have died - the rest is just wishful thinking

You will never get zero - but as Big F notes a near zero target - not bumbling along as we are with 1000 or so well dispersed waiting to explode. 

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49 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

You will never get zero - but as Big F notes a near zero target - not bumbling along as we are with 1000 or so well dispersed waiting to explode. 

Thats the path that spain is following.   Deaths are/appear to be/might be well down at the moment so might not be the worst thing.  Can we protect the venerable though?

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27 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Thats the path that spain is following.   Deaths are/appear to be/might be well down at the moment so might not be the worst thing.  Can we protect the venerable though?

I would prefer that they concentrate on the vulnerable personally.😁

Edited by ricardo

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1 minute ago, ricardo said:

I would prefer that thet concentrate on the vulnerable personally.😁

But there is so much wisdom amongst the venerable, surely they need to be protected as well😀

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13 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Thats the path that spain is following.   Deaths are/appear to be/might be well down at the moment so might not be the worst thing.  Can we protect the venerable though?

Sod the venerable . They have it too cushy already . 

  • Haha 1

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20 minutes ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Sod the venerable . They have it too cushy already . 

I agree. But of course the very select few of us who are actually venerated😇 need and deserve the most careful protection...

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31 minutes ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Sod the venerable . They have it too cushy already . 

what about the meek........................... they never get much of a deal

blessed are the meek

Edited by Bill

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38 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I would prefer that they concentrate on the vulnerable personally.😁

This virus is a new beginning. Why would we want to save the less than venerable?

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It is

I saw a couple of VD germs crossing the road the other day... almost run over they were

one said to the other

" phew, I was nearly a gonna 'ere "

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24 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I didn't realise Venereal Disease was so widespread in Norfolk.

Bunch of non douche bags

Venerable Disease is quite common on here.

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17 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The number of positive tests is up a bit today but still difficult to be certain if this is or isn't a function of higher testing. See latest data.

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/

Looking at those graphs then testing has greatly increased from May through to July whereas new case numbers actually fell in the same period. The lockdown being eased in early July with a lag of 3/4 weeks and you can see the numbers increasing. I believe we can expect increases of over 1000 and probably even up to 2000 very soon. It seems that the trends are there to see for us in France, Spain....

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56 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Looking at those graphs then testing has greatly increased from May through to July whereas new case numbers actually fell in the same period. The lockdown being eased in early July with a lag of 3/4 weeks and you can see the numbers increasing. I believe we can expect increases of over 1000 and probably even up to 2000 very soon. It seems that the trends are there to see for us in France, Spain....

And what makes it worse is we never got our level of community infection sufficiently under control before we started to release. I don’t think there is much doubt what is going to happen here, our salvation will rest in whether this period has bought sufficient time to establish a decent track and trace service properly integrated with DPH, sufficient testing capacity and a governance regime that inspires confidence and compliance. Mmm...

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Looking at those graphs then testing has greatly increased from May through to July whereas new case numbers actually fell in the same period. The lockdown being eased in early July with a lag of 3/4 weeks and you can see the numbers increasing. I believe we can expect increases of over 1000 and probably even up to 2000 very soon. It seems that the trends are there to see for us in France, Spain....

Hospital admissions lag isn’t 3-4 weeks. 8-11 days on average between catching it, showing symptoms and being hospitalised. According to Ricardo’s graphs, infections started rising over a month ago, yet hospital admissions continue to drop.

In the same time period, the seven day average number of tests carried out has continued to go up.

So we’ve had 4 weeks of increasing infections, 4 weeks of increasing tests, but 4 weeks of reduced hospital admissions despite it taking only 1-1.5 weeks to be hospitalised after catching it (on average - so some even earlier than that).

Either suggests to me that it’s down to the increased testing, or the virus has become a lot weaker than it was before.

 

Edited by Aggy

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The 8-11 days between infection and hospitalisation sounds a little low to me Aggy, can I ask where those figures are from?

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