Corona Virus main thread

[Herman 9,754]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

The virus doesn't  require planning consent.

No, but the government has all the data, all the info, access to all the local leaders, medics and media. It knew there was an upwards curve and a major festival on the way so it could have easily planned and informed much better. 

All through this they have spent more energy putting out fires that they started. Just bloody plan properly and I wouldn't spend my time having the hump and you wouldn't spend all your time apologising for them. It's rather simple. 

[BigFish 1,986]

23 minutes ago, Herman said:

No, but the government has all the data, all the info, access to all the local leaders, medics and media. It knew there was an upwards curve and a major festival on the way so it could have easily planned and informed much better. 

All through this they have spent more energy putting out fires that they started. Just bloody plan properly and I wouldn't spend my time having the hump and you wouldn't spend all your time apologising for them. It's rather simple. 

The government's handling of the crises has been so bad, so chaotic that I don't believe they do have all the info. They certainly haven't used the local leaders, medics and media. It is incompetance on a truly epic scale. (In passing I see Sturgeon is recomending that Scots don't travel to Northern England).

[A Load of Squit 5,161]

The handling of this crisis is giving me flash backs to 'Black Wednesday'.

Lamont kept appearing and telling us everything was being managed and they were in control of the situation. 🙃

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Why is anyone upset about this?

I just don't see the need to believe that it is wrong. This Government have been dreadful concerning most matters during the crisis but this idea seems to be valid to me. It is avoiding a general rule for all of us. We are waiting for a similar ruling for Cornwall. Next week will probably see the population increase from its normal 480,000 to over a million.

Someone made a bit of a blue and forgot about EID and it is unfortunate for those that celebrate it that it coincides with a spike in their areas. It isn't picking on a community per se. Or else those who like to go to Leisure Centres or Theatre would have a valid complaint. Surely its better missing once than maybe ending up missing forever.

I doubt any of us wear masks inside the home or garden. And it is natural that there is very little social distancing. So this advice makes sense.

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, BigFish said:

 

The problem is not religious gatherings in the North West. The problem is the tracing system is finding barely half of all contacts in the region. It is government failure you are attempting to cover with your desparate whataboutery.

Is that the case, do you have a link for that BF?

[ricardo 7,384]

It will be hand sanitiser next to the sausage rolls and mince pies, come Xmas.

Oh! and don't forget to socially distance from the bonfire when you light up on Nov 5th.👺

[Barbe bleu 822]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

No, but the government has all the data, all the info, access to all the local leaders, medics and media. It knew there was an upwards curve and a major festival on the way so it could have easily planned and informed much better. 

This is the plan though.  Targeted lockdowns to reduce local transmission.   Not nice to cancel plans at rhe lat minute but I am not sure what the alternative would have been

[Van wink 2,994]

Looks like the figures are rising steadily in France, the question is whether we are introducing enough restrictions to prevent the same here. I thought the background numbers were too high to release when we did but so far we seem to have done reasonably well, crucial decisions to be made over the next couple of weeks.

[Herman 9,754]

I know it is hot but it's not hard to understand what I am saying. 

[BigFish 1,986]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Is that the case, do you have a link for that BF?

Here is two for you, admittedly same leak. Government incompetence is STILL killing people

The government’s own emergency science group, Sage, says the target to ensure the virus doesn’t spread further is finding and reaching 80% of all close contacts of symptomatic cases. Yet in Blackburn, where health chiefs are battling a major outbreak, leaked analysis shows that the national tracing service is reaching only 52% of all close contacts.

The data also shows that less than half of close contacts are being reached in Oldham, St Helens, Manchester and Rochdale. The best performance for the region is in Cheshire East, where a third are still being missed.

[Van wink 2,994]

37 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Here is two for you, admittedly same leak. Government incompetence is STILL killing people

The government’s own emergency science group, Sage, says the target to ensure the virus doesn’t spread further is finding and reaching 80% of all close contacts of symptomatic cases. Yet in Blackburn, where health chiefs are battling a major outbreak, leaked analysis shows that the national tracing service is reaching only 52% of all close contacts.

The data also shows that less than half of close contacts are being reached in Oldham, St Helens, Manchester and Rochdale. The best performance for the region is in Cheshire East, where a third are still being missed.

Yes it’s the same report from the Independant from around 2 weeks ago. It’s interesting because the national stats are much higher than that. It would be useful to have more detail. For Track and Trace to work it requires the cooperation of those that have tested positive and it is not an unusual event, I can assure you, for them to be unwilling to cooperate or not provide full disclosure, particularly when they get a telephone call. In certain localities a knock on the door is likely to be far more effective and it’s good news that local authorities and local DPH are getting more involved now, it was a big mistake for government to assume that the national system would be enough on its own, the whole package of local and national tracing should have been constructed together. I think its improving but still not sure if sufficient locality info is getting through to DPH’s.

Edited July 31, 2020 by Van wink

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

59 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

This is the plan though.  Targeted lockdowns to reduce local transmission.   Not nice to cancel plans at rhe lat minute but I am not sure what the alternative would have been

Strange, I thought the plan as announced a few weeks ago was to give local councils the data and the authority to monitor transmissions in their area in fine grained detail and then, if necessary, apply very targetted and appropriate measures to contain the spread of infection.

I must have missed the briefing where they said the plan was for central Government to spring lockdowns onto Councils with a couple of hours notice and the usual utterly confusing shambles about what restrictions were actually being put in place.

These Westminister control freaks really are incompetence writ large - apart from being just plain thick and having very poor judgement in pretty much every situation they find themselves in, as BF has already said I don't believe that even now our data is anywhere near as good as it should be (again down to their incompetence) and that is probably the final piece of the jigsaw behind the series of knee-jerk, ill-considered decisions we've seen recently.

[Van wink 2,994]

19 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Strange, I thought the plan as announced a few weeks ago was to give local councils the data and the authority to monitor transmissions in their area in fine grained detail and then, if necessary, apply very targetted and appropriate measures to contain the spread of infection.

I must have missed the briefing where they said the plan was for central Government to spring lockdowns onto Councils with a couple of hours notice and the usual utterly confusing shambles about what restrictions were actually being put in place.

These Westminister control freaks really are incompetence writ large - apart from being just plain thick and having very poor judgement in pretty much every situation they find themselves in, as BF has already said I don't believe that even now our data is anywhere near as good as it should be (again down to their incompetence) and that is probably the final piece of the jigsaw behind the series of knee-jerk, ill-considered decisions we've seen recently.

Local councils have been taking action, Blackburn and Oldham already have done so on their own.

Surely you didn't think local action would exclude wider regional action as well?

What makes you think this is a "lockdown" and that it was sprung on local councils? Andy Burnham and it appears most Council Leaders approve.

 

 

Edited July 31, 2020 by Van wink

[Aggy 754]

6 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I find it a little bit odd that those who were complaining that the first lockdown in March was implemented too late are now complaining that this lockdown is too early. 

It is almost like there is some agenda here 

When did I complain it was too late? I find it a bit odd you’d make that up.

[Aggy 754]

6 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I wonder if people in the London Blitz used to complain about air raid alarms going off in the middle of the night and disturbing their sleep?

Sorry why is that relevant?

Or are you comparing a disease which kills almost exclusively over 75 year olds to a bombing raid that indiscriminately kills anyone who happens to be stuck under a bomb?

[Aggy 754]

4 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I am inclined to agree.  

I suspect that the data came late in the day and that more notice would have been given had someone not realised that party time for the virus was in less than 24 hours.

Have we seen what this data is yet?

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

19 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Surely you didn't think local action would exclude wider regional action as well?

Exclude completely perhaps not, if we had  a situation arise where we had very good good data showing there was a region wide and evenly distributed rise in infection, but I don't believe that is what we have here.

It appears to me that the regional action is necessary, if indeed it is necessary at all, precisely because we haven't had sufficiently timely or accurate data to take the kind of precisely targetted action that would be far preferable and far less damaging.

[Aggy 754]

24 minutes ago, Van wink said:

 

What makes you think this is a "lockdown" and that it was sprung on local councils? Andy Burnham and it appears most Council Leaders approve.

 

 

I think local councils tweeting “we’re waiting for updates” half an hour after the announcement is evidence they didn’t know anything about it. MPs tweeting saying they hadn’t been told is pretty decent evidence as well.

 

[Aggy 754]

5 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Well you can imagine the outcome if we had a national debate a week before deciding to implement.clampdown measures. 

Do you think we should have had a week's debate before lockdown in March?

Should there have been a week's debate before clampdown.in Leicester?

Lol. Who said anything about a week’s debate? You should change your name to spin the boat. 

[Van wink 2,994]

11 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Exclude completely perhaps not, if we had  a situation arise where we had very good good data showing there was a region wide and evenly distributed rise in infection, but I don't believe that is what we have here.

It appears to me that the regional action is necessary, if indeed it is necessary at all, precisely because we haven't had sufficiently timely or accurate data to take the kind of precisely targetted action that would be far preferable and far less damaging.

It’s not a precise science, it’s community spread in this case which is why its ringing alarm bells. More data would always be the desirable. Precise targeted action is more relevant to a localised cluster, a meat packing plant type outbreak. 

Edited July 31, 2020 by Van wink

[Van wink 2,994]

6 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I think local councils tweeting “we’re waiting for updates” half an hour after the announcement is evidence they didn’t know anything about it. MPs tweeting saying they hadn’t been told is pretty decent evidence as well.

 

FT
Andy Burnham, Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, and many local authority leaders supported the move. He said: “We have gone from a falling rate of cases in nearly all of our boroughs last week to a rising rate in nine out of 10 affecting communities across a much wider geography.” 

[Aggy 754]

7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

FT
Andy Burnham, Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, and many local authority leaders supported the move. He said: “We have gone from a falling rate of cases in nearly all of our boroughs last week to a rising rate in nine out of 10 affecting communities across a much wider geography.” 

How does that link with my post you’ve quoted? 

As I mentioned earlier, one of the districts (I can’t remember which but revisit my previous tweets if you’re desperate to know!) was bang in the middle of number of cases. Rossebdale and Wigan have fewer cases per 100,000 than London. What’s the logic? 

And as I said earlier, doing it on number of infections alone to me seems plain stupid. Testing gets ramped up, and it becomes easier to/more people know they can obtain tests and there are, surprise surprise, more infections. Yet where are the increased hospital admissions or the increased deaths? Are we seeing an increase in infections or if we had this testing capacity/ease of getting tested three months ago would we have seen thousands (probably dozens if not hundreds of thousands) more infections? 
 

If restrictions increase when fewer people are in hospital and dying then to me that just risks people not getting tested unless they are seriously ill, which then causes more problems because you’ve got a load of unwell people not getting tested, spreading it and not helping us see the full picture.

Edited July 31, 2020 by Aggy

[Aggy 754]

P.s supporting the move the day after doesn’t mean they were given notice does it?

[Van wink 2,994]

7 minutes ago, Aggy said:

P.s supporting the move the day after doesn’t mean they were given notice does it?

Andy Burnham was involved and spoke to council leaders before hand I believe

[Aggy 754]

Talking of confusing messages, appears Hancock himself was getting a bit confused today...

He told BBC morning viewers that : “Meeting another household in pub gardens or outdoor restaurant space is not allowed under the new restrictions."”

Unfortunately the government website then updated to say:

“you can continue to meet in public outdoor spaces in groups of no more than 6 people, unless the group includes only people from 2 households. You cannot meet people you do not live within a private garden.”....

[Aggy 754]

Just now, Van wink said:

Andy Burnham was involved and spoke to council leaders before hand I believe

Burnham seemingly was. But (a) he has nothing to do with the Yorkshire areas and (b) evidently he’s didn’t tell city councillors as the city councils (and a number of MPs) said they couldn’t give any more detail to the people than Hancock’s four tweets... 

[Bill 1,788]

 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

18 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It’s not a precise science, it’s community spread. More data would always be the desirable.

Of course, and more data and more timely data is exactly what we would have if this government hadn't totally messed up over test, track and trace.

Many other European countries, including even little old Ireland, have spent a fraction of the money that we've wasted and still delivered properly functioning and effective systems, streets ahead of the world beating b*lls up that Johnson has engineered.

[Barbe bleu 822]

38 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Have we seen what this data is yet?

I doubt we'll ever see it!

[Van wink 2,994]

8 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Of course, and more data and more timely data is exactly what we would have if this government hadn't totally messed up over test, track and trace.

Many other European countries, including even little old Ireland, have spent a fraction of the money that we've wasted and still delivered properly functioning and effective systems, streets ahead of the world beating b*lls up that Johnson has engineered.

It’s improving but not world class. What analysis have you seen of track and trace in other countries?

Edited July 31, 2020 by Van wink