Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,348]

25 minutes ago, Van wink said:

No doubt about that Billy. Hope you did the right thing and covered your face👍

Little sign of any alarms as yet.

Almost no Covid in Norfolk at the moment.

[ricardo 7,348]

Complete number of cases reported over last 14 days by Local Authority Area

Gt Yarmonth looks best for a weeks hol😉

 

[Bill 1,788]

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

Waitrose this morning,

Britain's 'cheapest' grocer has been named in a price comparison that looked at the cost of 78 essential items at Aldi, Lidl and the six biggest supermarkets.

The report, which factored in staples such as Hovis bread, milk, salad tomatoes and pasta, found the best value supermarket across branded and non-branded lines.

Which? said that the goods would cost the average customer £72.02 at Lidl.

In contrast, the exact same items would have cost you £111.77 at Waitrose last month.

[sonyc 5,492]

The conditions for a coronavirus spike in Spain were clear. Yet no one saw it coming

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/28/coronavirus-spike-spain-pandemic-mistakes?

A view here on the Spanish situation (17 administrative regions) and insight into potential problems ahead with fears (as yet unrealised) about increasing death rates again. Will be a situation to watch for possible learning. 

Lots of media talk this morning too on other European countries (Belgium looking at second complete lockdown, German fears, French vigilance etc).

[Bill 1,788]

4 minutes ago, sonyc said:

The conditions for a coronavirus spike in Spain were clear. Yet no one saw it coming

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/28/coronavirus-spike-spain-pandemic-mistakes?

A view here on the Spanish situation (17 administrative regions) and insight into potential problems ahead with fears (as yet unrealised) about increasing death rates again. Will be a situation to watch for possible learning. 

Lots of media talk this morning too on other European countries (Belgium looking at second complete lockdown, German fears, French vigilance etc).

err, how come cases don't rise or increase as before

they 'spike'

which given its definition means a sharp decrease the other side ie a blip

which is not what happens

[Aggy 752]

If Belgium has a second complete lockdown (all I’ve heard is potential slight tightening - Antwerp now has a nighttime curfew for instance) then the world has gone mad. Fewer than 2,000 new viruses across the whole week (averaging 279 a day) and the nationwide deaths have been consistently in the 3-8 a day since the middle of June. If we had a second lockdown here because of such tiny numbers, hardly anyone would bother with it.

[ricardo 7,348]

8 hours ago, Bill said:

Britain's 'cheapest' grocer has been named in a price comparison that looked at the cost of 78 essential items at Aldi, Lidl and the six biggest supermarkets.

The report, which factored in staples such as Hovis bread, milk, salad tomatoes and pasta, found the best value supermarket across branded and non-branded lines.

Which? said that the goods would cost the average customer £72.02 at Lidl.

In contrast, the exact same items would have cost you £111.77 at Waitrose last month.

Yes, but you have a much better class of mask wearer at Waitrose😉👍😁

[sonyc 5,492]

1 hour ago, Aggy said:

If Belgium has a second complete lockdown (all I’ve heard is potential slight tightening - Antwerp now has a nighttime curfew for instance) then the world has gone mad. Fewer than 2,000 new viruses across the whole week (averaging 279 a day) and the nationwide deaths have been consistently in the 3-8 a day since the middle of June. If we had a second lockdown here because of such tiny numbers, hardly anyone would bother with it.

I tend to agree with you but I'm only posting up a view on it. Death rates have yet to increase but they lag anyway don't they in relation to numbers of cases. So, is the virus weakening, are treatments better, is community transmission less prevalent, are those that are more vulnerable more shielding because if what has happened before? I'm surmising the latter. So, it's still about, people are getting it but the public health measures are working (even if in part) and death rates are not as before. A bit like a bad outbreak of a cold virus for some or milder for many. 

We don't know. I'm just curious at all the talk of more lockdowns. I'm not tying myself to any one view Aggy.

Edited July 28, 2020 by sonyc

[sonyc 5,492]

38 minutes ago, Bill said:

err, how come cases don't rise or increase as before

they 'spike'

which given its definition means a sharp decrease the other side ie a blip

which is not what happens

The use of the word  'spike' has always been less useful Bill. I just tend to read it then ignore. It isn't helpful or educative though I agree.

[Van wink 2,994]

55 minutes ago, Aggy said:

If Belgium has a second complete lockdown (all I’ve heard is potential slight tightening - Antwerp now has a nighttime curfew for instance) then the world has gone mad. Fewer than 2,000 new viruses across the whole week (averaging 279 a day) and the nationwide deaths have been consistently in the 3-8 a day since the middle of June. If we had a second lockdown here because of such tiny numbers, hardly anyone would bother with it.

The point is Aggy that you have to look not only at the number of cases in an area eg Antwerp, I don’t happen to know the numbers but use that as you mentioned it, but also the crucial point comes from track and trace, are these cases related, in a cluster? If they are related that’s not such bad news, the problem comes if there is no obvious linkage which then means there is community spread taking place. That’s much more serious and difficult to control, you will then quite likely be back to symptomless carries for example feeling fit and fine but spreading the virus to others, hence the crucial need at this point for good hygienic practice, including wearing face coverings and possible localised lockdown.

[Bill 1,788]

Good to see "good hygienic practice'' is being advocated.... though only at a specific point, as you state

and not as a required behaviour, irrespective of any obvious concern

Just because there is no obvious link, it does not mean there is no link - lock down at that stage is merely bolting the door....

If people are allowed to visit various pubs and shops where they and staff are not required to wear fancy dress, nor practice safe distance or even sanitising hands then it is always going to be a link that is 'not obvious.

 

[Herman 9,717]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

The use of the word  'spike' has always been less useful Bill. I just tend to read it then ignore. It isn't helpful or educative though I agree.

Having family out there I was concerned about the huge spike in Australia and the trebling of the death rate and other such OTT statements from the press. So I checked the data and, yes, it was nothing of the sort. 

[Aggy 752]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

The point is Aggy that you have to look not only at the number of cases in an area eg Antwerp, I don’t happen to know the numbers but use that as you mentioned it, but also the crucial point comes from track and trace, are these cases related, in a cluster? If they are related that’s not such bad news, the problem comes if there is no obvious linkage which then means there is community spread taking place. That’s much more serious and difficult to control, you will then quite likely be back to symptomless carries for example feeling fit and fine but spreading the virus to others, hence the crucial need at this point for good hygienic practice, including wearing face coverings and possible localised lockdown.

Those Belgian numbers are nationwide. No idea if they’re in a cluster or not, but as I’ve said previously - if the number of infections go up but the deaths don’t, there’s not really any panic. Yes of course nip isolated outbreaks in the bud, but large scale lockdowns (mentioned as a possibility in this thread but not really anywhere else) aren’t going to happen when deaths don’t increase. In Belgium you’ve got Antwerp effectively closing down nightlife by introducing a nighttime curfew, and the rest of the country has gone from being able to see 15 people to 5 I think. That’s a sensible measure to stop it spreading further and getting out of control, but there’s no way you introduce wholesale full lockdowns again for those sorts of numbers.

Edited July 28, 2020 by Aggy

[Bill 1,788]

the problem there is that once the death numbers begin to show a marked increase then the damage has already been done

[Aggy 752]

56 minutes ago, Herman said:

Having family out there I was concerned about the huge spike in Australia and the trebling of the death rate and other such OTT statements from the press. So I checked the data and, yes, it was nothing of the sort. 

I think this is the thing that irritates me more than anything at the moment. One look at the BBC homepage, you can hardly ever see current death rates in the UK anymore because they’re so low, all you can see is “such and such a country in massive panic about huge increases”. Then when you look at it, there have been 5 extra deaths one day or the number of infections has gone up but the press fails to mention they’ve also just ramped up testing capability etc. 
 

I fully appreciate the need to make sure it doesn’t get out of control again, but there needs to be context - how many times have you read in the press that the Uk nationwide death rate has been below the five year average since the middle of June?

[Aggy 752]

Just now, Bill said:

the problem there is that once the death numbers begin to show a marked increase then the damage has already been done

Yes which is why the measures Belgium have introduced are sensible to stop that happening. But saying you can meet five people outside your home instead of 15 and you have to be home by 8 is very different to saying you’re not allowed out of your house other than a daily jog and weekly food shop.

[Bill 1,788]

That has been the major problem in the UK this all or nothing approach that swings one way then the next by the day

And the normal death rate is going to be lower on the simple basis that a good number of those who died a few months back would have been the ones dying now,

The government needs to be more open and more decisive confusing messages about when a bit of cloth might help and when it err... might not, is causing far more harm,

Anyone making arrangements for a 14 day quarantine, may now see it cut to ten days - utter shambles

[ricardo 7,348]

Still heading downwards in England.

[Bill 1,788]

7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Still heading downwards in England.

unspiking, I think you mean

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,182]

22 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

VW, I see that in France from now on anyone can get a test for Covid-19 for free and without a prescription from their doctor. They don't even need to be displaying symptoms. Obviously another way to help reduce the risk of spreading the virus, and good news for the likes of Bagster, over there.

But what are the chances of this being adopted in the UK, given that it seems to have been behindhand so far in taking - or being able to take - action?

 

2 hours ago, Bill said:

 

Anyone making arrangements for a 14 day quarantine, may now see it cut to ten days - utter shambles

If the UK adopts free testing for anyone, then quarantine can be reduced to 5 or 6 days

[ricardo 7,348]

38 minutes ago, Bill said:

unspiking, I think you mean

or as we say in Norfolk

Thass still  a hossin on down bor.

[Barbe bleu 816]

12 hours ago, Aggy said:

If Belgium has a second complete lockdown (all I’ve heard is potential slight tightening - Antwerp now has a nighttime curfew for instance) then the world has gone mad. Fewer than 2,000 new viruses across the whole week (averaging 279 a day) and the nationwide deaths have been consistently in the 3-8 a day since the middle of June. If we had a second lockdown here because of such tiny numbers, hardly anyone would bother with it.

The problem is that if you wait for big numbers to justify a lockdown you've probably already left it too late. Go too early and you've achieved nothing good and quite a lot bad.   

Belgium and Spain both got in really bad in the first wave so hopefully this will be self-limiting.  The German's and Scandinavia eithout much immunity built up must be worried though. but without wishing to dwell on stereotypes if anyone is going to take this seriously and protect the vulnerable it is them.

[Van wink 2,994]

11 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

The problem is that if you wait for big numbers to justify a lockdown you've probably already left it too late. Go too early and you've achieved nothing good and quite a lot bad.   

 

It’s a tough balance, easy to criticise when it’s left too late as the consequences become obvious. We need to be watching the data really closely, the problem is the infection can get out of control so quickly, we have no choice but to take a cautionary approach going forward imo. Very hard to sell that message though, particularly with the poor communications record of the current Government and some who seem determined to put themselves and their communities at risk. (Including Cummings)

[Aggy 752]

12 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

The problem is that if you wait for big numbers to justify a lockdown you've probably already left it too late. Go too early and you've achieved nothing good and quite a lot bad.   

Belgium and Spain both got in really bad in the first wave so hopefully this will be self-limiting.  The German's and Scandinavia eithout much immunity built up must be worried though. but without wishing to dwell on stereotypes if anyone is going to take this seriously and protect the vulnerable it is them.

Yes agreed and as said , the measures in Belgium (overnight curfew, reducing permitted group sizes from 15 to 5) seem sensible. My initial point really was in response to the comment on this thread that Belgium was “looking at a second complete lockdown” - I’ve seen no evidence that is the case, and suggested that when you look at the numbers involved, if a second complete nationwide full lockdown was introduced in the UK for those sorts of figures, nobody would pay it any attention. As it seems from all media reports I’ve seen, even Belgium doesn’t think those figures warrant a second complete lockdown. 

My initial post on the Belgium point probably tied in with the ‘irritation’ I mentioned in later response about the media sensationalising. 

Edited July 29, 2020 by Aggy

[sonyc 5,492]

19 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Yes agreed and as said , the measures in Belgium (overnight curfew, reducing permitted group sizes from 15 to 5) seem sensible. My initial point really was in response to the comment on this thread that Belgium was “looking at a second complete lockdown” - I’ve seen no evidence that is the case, and suggested that when you look at the numbers involved, if a second complete nationwide full lockdown was introduced in the UK for those sorts of figures, nobody would pay it any attention. As it seems from all media reports I’ve seen, even Belgium doesn’t think those figures warrant a second complete lockdown. 

My initial post on the Belgium point probably tied in with the ‘irritation’ I mentioned in later response about the media sensationalising. 

That was me Aggy. I was posting what I had read because I was surprised. I take a serious look at lots of sources and rarely believe everything I read. I'm still of the view that rising numbers may influence an increasing death rate again. And secondly, I don't think we will see another full lockdown, even though there are reports now popping up in other countries.

At no time had I any intention of irritating anyone. That would be a reaction you've had to the post.  I'm very happy to apologise as I am not someone setting out to annoy. 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Personally I am finding the mainstream UK media incredibly irritating in their reporting of Covid.  For example the BBC are still going on and on about the requirement to quarantine when returning from Spain, when they interview people from the government they challenge the policy, but when they interview people complaining about it (or from the travel industry etc), there's never any attempt to challenge them or ask them why restrictions shouldn't be imposed to try to stop case numbers rising again in the UK ?

 

I find it amazing here we are just months after a lockdown that gave us all massive restrictions on our daily lives, yet people are whinging about a couple of weeks quarantine after coming back from one country or about the need to wear masks in shops.  It just beggars belief.

[sonyc 5,492]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

Personally I am finding the mainstream UK media incredibly irritating in their reporting of Covid.  For example the BBC are still going on and on about the requirement to quarantine when returning from Spain, when they interview people from the government they challenge the policy, but when they interview people complaining about it (or from the travel industry etc), there's never any attempt to challenge them or ask them why restrictions shouldn't be imposed to try to stop case numbers rising again in the UK ?

 

I find it amazing here we are just months after a lockdown that gave us all massive restrictions on our daily lives, yet people are whinging about a couple of weeks quarantine after coming back from one country or about the need to wear masks in shops.  It just beggars belief.

I agree about the messaging and lack of challenging in those interviews because it somehow establishes a narrative, which is sometimes misleading and certainly not the only message that might be useful to be aired. I am of the view too that people do need to be told (though some would accuse me of wanting a 'nanny state' or being too interventionist).

Overall, given such a global world health crisis, I don't overall blame the press for the stories about C19. Normally, any big story has a shelf life but this pandemic hasn't reached a tail yet. In fact, it may only be the beginning of a lot worse to come, certainly economically and psychologically.

I try and not be irritated, though that is a challenge. I have not been impressed with the quality of government response. Though in one sense, as ever, they'll be damned in some quarters anyway.  In their health messaging it has been very much a miss for me.

I suppose you have to choose your media outlets wisely. It's not just in football that you get rotten reporting!

[Aggy 752]

3 hours ago, sonyc said:

That was me Aggy. I was posting what I had read because I was surprised. I take a serious look at lots of sources and rarely believe everything I read. I'm still of the view that rising numbers may influence an increasing death rate again. And secondly, I don't think we will see another full lockdown, even though there are reports now popping up in other countries.

At no time had I any intention of irritating anyone. That would be a reaction you've had to the post.  I'm very happy to apologise as I am not someone setting out to annoy. 

Didn’t say you had irritated me, merely that amongst things such as the media overegging things that was just another example of things being overegged and taken out of context. That was the point of my initial post - that actually, Belgium isn’t considering full lockdown, the numbers are still fairly minimal and we need to see the context not just the sound bite which makes it look worse than it is.

As for rising numbers influencing an increasing death rate, someone else on here a couple of weeks ago told me Israel was an example of a second wave. The number of infections has gone up from a previous high of around 500 to a current high of over 2000. Yet the deaths (which had gone down to 0 for a little while) remain around 5-8 a day. So despite the supposed second wave and four fold increase in infections which was made out to be evidence that a second wave will be disastrous and is likely to happen, they’re having 8 deaths a day tops. If the numbers are allowed to get crazily out of hand then yes death rates likely will increase, but that’s not happening here or anywhere else in Europe. 
 

Edit 2: and let’s not also forget we’ve been “open” again since 4 July - nearly a month ago now and had started loosening restrictions before that. I understand it takes around 2-3 weeks for deaths to catch up but they’re still going down...

Edited July 29, 2020 by Aggy

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

I know what you mean, I am open to any other recommendations for news sources !

 

Also their reporting is often reactive, e.g. if a body representing the travel industry puts out a story that quarantine is a nightmare for them, the BBC lazily pick it up and report it as news, often just repeating what's been said.

 

I don't mind them reporting the quarantine re Spain, it's the fact that stories often start with them saying things like "The Government is under pressure to reduce the period of quarantine...." when actually what they mean is travel industry bodies are saying the period should be reduced.  I often feel when I hear that sort of story that there should be someone standing up for the rest of us and saying back to them : aren't you just lobbying for your particular business and what about the safety of everyone which will be put at risk by easing restrictions ?  The BBC is funded by the licence fee and it should report those sort of views but then challenge them, in the same way as they do if the Government says something.

[sonyc 5,492]

A lot of the press sensationalise (take The Sun today with its headline about a Belgian total lockdown yet the story is about how they are acting to prevent one through several actions).

Often, the media 'overeggs'. The language so often used ignores the multidimensional aspects of many things. Just look at our Brexit thread! It's hard to get dialogue going or different interpretations or even understanding because folk have their side to protect. That is human though... and as for press articles, my old press and marketing mate at work used to say to me when I might have been worried about a bad story written about a work matter ...."it's tomorrow's fish and chip paper".