Corona Virus main thread

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

12 hours ago, Bill said:

And that pretty much sums up the first day.... for those living in the UK. With the obvious danger being that when certain behaviour is required it won't even be enforceable, followed even where it is obvious

Law that is not enforced, or even enforceable brings the rest into disrepute - I think we are all familiar with the little boy who cried wolf

Well this is the fatboy who cried wolf..... too many times

That is dead right and I don't think anybody really listens\takes any notice of him any more - although having said that I did accidentally catch a bit of his press conference the other day and was doubled up laughing at the blond porker telling us we should all be losing weight 🤣

[Herman 9,743]

58 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

That is dead right and I don't think anybody really listens\takes any notice of him any more - although having said that I did accidentally catch a bit of his press conference the other day and was doubled up laughing at the blond porker telling us we should all be losing weight 🤣

Will Bridgen and Francois be involved in any taskforce? 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Useful update here on where we are now with the virus and hot spots 

 

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/incidence-update-23-july

[sonyc 5,508]

9 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Useful update here on where we are now with the virus and hot spots 

 

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/incidence-update-23-july

The hotspot data is new and welcome (especially as my area in the north no longer features!). 

All those areas have characteristics of higher density housing.

Good too that the numbers using the app are still increasing.

[Van wink 2,994]

4 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Useful update here on where we are now with the virus and hot spots 

 

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/incidence-update-23-july

This is a good study isn’t it, the more people that get involved the better. Interesting to see possibly the beginnings of a north south divide. Leeds and Liverpool fans doing their bit to assist.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

This is a good study isn’t it, the more people that get involved the better. Interesting to see possibly the beginnings of a north south divide. Leeds and Liverpool fans doing their bit to assist.

Ashington did its best to drag the North East into it.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,186]

14 days quarantine for people returning to the UK from Spain 

From Sunday

[Herman 9,743]

Damn this virus.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Just shows that you would be risking it booking a holiday anywhere outside these shores.

[Bill 1,788]

16 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Just shows that you would be risking it booking a holiday anywhere outside these shores.

Spain is safe - they all wear masks there

[sonyc 5,508]

France may well follow. Cases rising across Europe. 

[Aggy 753]

How are the death rates across Europe? 

[Van wink 2,994]

It was never going away despite how much people wish it would, just do your bit to stop the spread, that’s all we can do. 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

Spain is safe - they all wear masks there

You really are a clown. Undermining decent public health interventions is irresponsible and not what’s needed during a pandemic.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

On 21/07/2020 at 13:08, Barbe bleu said:

I dont see much difference in the Scottish and English approaches.  Everyone is aiming to get infections as close to zero as possible, even Sweden is trying to do this (albeit with minimal sacrifice) .   

What do you see as the major differences in approach that cause Scotland  to be a success and England to be an unmitigated shambles?

Funnily enough that seems to be the point that Johnson has been rather desperately trying to make in Scotland but unfortunately as soon as you look at the detail and timing it becomes obvious that the approaches are very different.

BigFish, I think, was making the same point as Nicola Sturgeon which is that there is a fundamental difference in approach between England and Scotland (& also Wales and N.I). England is trying to restart the economy as quickly as possible whilst keeping the virus suppressed to 'tolerable' levels - where the definition of 'tolerable' is extremely flexible, i.e. whatever Cummings and Johnson decide at any given time.

The policy is England is quite clearly not to get infections as close to zero as possible whereas in Scotland that has been quite explicitly the intention and it has resulted in a slower, more considered unlock accompanied by very clear and simple messaging - again in complete contrast to the shambolic situation in England where Cabinet Ministers contradict each other on a regular basis about what we are supposed to be doing.

And of course the data bears it out - in England the decline in cases and deaths has plateaued with thouands of new cases and hundreds of deaths still being reported per week whilst in Scotland the numbers have continued to decline to the point where new cases are fluctuating between single figures & a couple of dozen whilst they have now had nine consecutive days without a death.

Different approaches producing different outcomes, so no real surprise really. The supreme irony is Johnson's shambolic rush to restart the English economy hasn't delivered the expected results anyway, quite possibly because very few people trust\respect  him and are adopting a much more cautious and considered approach to the unlock than the one he is urging on us.

This, IMO, represents a major long term problem for the UK - business confidence and investment is shot (and has been for a long time) and now consumer confidence is also shot. In the next few months we have the winding down of the furlough scheme followed rapidly by either a no deal exit from the transition period or an exit with a very minimalist trade deal - so no economic joy to be had there either. We're in the deepest economic depression for 300 years and we've a government that hasn't got a clue about how to get out of it.

Edited July 25, 2020 by Creative Midfielder

[Herman 9,743]

 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

2 minutes ago, Herman said:

 

Absolutely priceless.

Wonder if he'll do a 'Cummings' 🤣

[Van wink 2,994]

22 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Funnily enough that seems to be the point that Johnson has been rather desperately trying to make in Scotland but unfortunately as soon as you look at the detail and timing it becomes obvious that the approaches are very different.

BigFish, I think, was making the same point as Nicola Sturgeon which is that there is a fundamental difference in approach between England and Scotland (& also Wales and N.I). England is trying to restart the economy as quickly as possible whilst keeping the virus suppressed to 'tolerable' levels - where the definition of 'tolerable' is extremely flexible, i.e. whatever Cummings and Johnson decide at any given time.

The policy is England is quite clearly not to get infections as close to zero as possible whereas in Scotland that has been quite explicitly the intention and it has resulted in a slower, more considered unlock accompanied by very clear and simple messaging - again in complete contrast to the shambolic situation in England where Cabinet Ministers contradict each other on a regular basis about what we are supposed to be doing.

And of course the data bears it out - in England the decline in cases and deaths has plateaued with thouands of new cases and hundreds of deaths still being reported per week whilst in Scotland the numbers have continued to decline to the point where new cases are fluctuating between single figures & a couple of dozen whilst they have now had nine consecutive days without a death.

Different approaches producing different outcomes, so no real surprise really. The supreme irony is Johnson's shambolic rush to restart the English economy hasn't delivered the expected results anyway, quite possibly because very few people trust\respect  him and are adopting a much more cautious and considered approach to the unlock than the one he is urging on us.

This, IMO, represents a major long term problem for the UK - business confidence and investment is shot (and has been for a long time) and now consumer confidence is also shot. In the next few months we have the winding down of the furlough scheme followed rapidly by either a no deal exit from the transition period or an exit with a very minimalist trade deal - so no economic joy to be had there either. We're in the deepest economic depression for 300 years and we've a government that hasn't got a clue about how to get out of it.

Very little in substance in the approach to the pandemic in England and Scotland. The difference has been leadership and Sturgeons desire to adopt a Presidential style, which has served her well. 

[Herman 9,743]

I'm sure he's got a few different named passports he can sneak in under.😀

[Barbe bleu 818]

24 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Funnily enough that seems to be the point that Johnson has been rather desperately trying to make in Scotland but unfortunately as soon as you look at the detail and timing it becomes obvious that the approaches are very different.

BigFish, I think, was making the same point as Nicola Sturgeon which is that there is a fundamental difference in approach between England and Scotland (& also Wales and N.I). England is trying to restart the economy as quickly as possible whilst keeping the virus suppressed to 'tolerable' levels - where the definition of 'tolerable' is extremely flexible, i.e. whatever Cummings and Johnson decide at any given time.

The policy is England is quite clearly not to get infections as close to zero as possible whereas in Scotland that has been quite explicitly the intention and it has resulted in a slower, more considered unlock accompanied by very clear and simple messaging - again in complete contrast to the shambolic situation in England where Cabinet Ministers contradict each other on a regular basis about what we are supposed to be doing.

And of course the data bears it out - in England the decline in cases and deaths has plateaued with thouands of new cases and hundreds of deaths still being reported per week whilst in Scotland the numbers have continued to decline to the point where new cases are fluctuating between single figures & a couple of dozen whilst they have now had nine consecutive days without a death.

Different approaches producing different outcomes, so no real surprise really 

So you are of the opinion that scotland had a slower lockdown easing and this has had the effect of driving down cases and deaths up there?

Is there any data on this or is it more a general feeling you have?

I've not studied this in any depth but my perception was that the two nationd have pretty much followed the same policies since the start. Some differences but none that has had a clear causitive impact on the trajectory of the virus.  

Interested to hear your thoughts.

[Bill 1,788]

42 minutes ago, Van wink said:

You really are a clown. Undermining decent public health interventions is irresponsible and not what’s needed during a pandemic.

Yes, I am sure my thoughts on here, about the failure of this government, are undermining public health

Which, were it the case, would say much about both

Now wind your neck, and sign in as another of your silly names to make out that your nonsense has a wider spread than just your sad, obsessive mind

[Barbe bleu 818]

3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Very little in substance in the approach to the pandemic in England and Scotland. The difference has been leadership and Sturgeons desire to adopt a Presidential style, which has served her well. 

I've well i asked CM for data for the hypothesis so I guess I should ask you for yours too!

[Van wink 2,994]

12 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I've well i asked CM for data for the hypothesis so I guess I should ask you for yours too!

PHE and their equivalents in the 3 nations have worked very closely together, a point often referred to in the briefings. There have been cosmetic differences but nothing hugely significant between England and Scotland, Wales I think had a harder lockdown with very restrictive travel controls.

What has been noticeable in Scotland has been the very low death numbers over recent weeks, I can’t offer any expert opinion as to why that is but my suspicion is that the reporting difference will be significant as numbers decline. In England the death of a person who has had a positive test at any time in the past is recorded as a COVID death. In Scotland it is only recorded as a COVID death if the test was within the last 28 days, that will surely have a big impact on numbers as things are atm.

Edited July 25, 2020 by Van wink

[Van wink 2,994]

17 minutes ago, Bill said:

Yes, I am sure my thoughts on here, about the failure of this government, are undermining public health

Which, were it the case, would say much about both

Now wind your neck, and sign in as another of your silly names to make out that your nonsense has a wider spread than just your sad, obsessive mind

Mocking people who wear face coverings and undermining an important public health message is irresponsible, whichever way you chose to wriggle and squirm. I couldn’t give a monkeys about your usual tripe but on this issue you should be a bit more grown up. 👍

Edited July 25, 2020 by Van wink

[Bill 1,788]

2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Mocking people who wear face coverings and undermining an important public health message is irresponsible, whichever way you chose to wriggle and squirm. I couldn’t give a monkeys about your usual tripe but on this issue you should be a bit more grown up. 👍

Calm yourself Cranky 😉

 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

10 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

So you are of the opinion that scotland had a slower lockdown easing and this has had the effect of driving down cases and deaths up there?

Is there any data on this or is it more a general feeling you have?

I've not studied this in any depth but my perception was that the two nationd have pretty much followed the same policies since the start. Some differences but none that has had a clear causitive impact on the trajectory of the virus.  

Interested to hear your thoughts.

Well one very obvious example came before any lockdown easing even started and that was the approach to children returning to school, and whilst almost by definition there must be similarities in the way 'unlock' has happened everywhere there are clear differences in the details and most importantly in the timing between what has happened in Scotland and England.

As for the data, it is all publically available and I'm quite sure you know where to find it, perhaps you just choose not to look but even so I find it hard to believe that you are unaware how low recent deaths are in Scotland (and Wales and NI) compared to England. You may have also missed the polls which are showing a very marked difference in the levels of trust, leadership and competence  amongst Scottish citizens in Sturgeon, compared to Johnson's ratings amongst English citizens - only polls, I know, but the differences are very striking.

Perhaps ignorance is bliss, that appears to be VW's approach 😀

[Barbe bleu 818]

2 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Well one very obvious example came before any lockdown easing even started and that was the approach to children returning to school, and whilst almost by definition there must be similarities in the way 'unlock' has happened everywhere there are clear differences in the details and most importantly in the timing between what has happened in Scotland and England.

OK  so the differences in viral infection is in a large part driven by the different rates at which schools re-opened.   

For what it is worth I think england should have changed to closer to a Scottish academic year with reopening pushed back but the next year starting earlier but I am not sure that schools have had or will have much of a role to play. I dont have much evidence for this but we are not seeing many school closures in England or academic reports conforming schools are particularly dangerous so I am quite comfortable with the finger in the air assessment.

 

Edited July 26, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Barbe bleu 818]

2 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

As for the data, it is all publically available and I'm quite sure you know where to find it, perhaps you just choose not to look but even so I find it hard to believe that you are unaware how low recent deaths are in Scotland (and Wales and NI) compared to England. You may have also missed the polls which are showing a very marked difference in the levels of trust, leadership and competence  amongst Scottish citizens in Sturgeon, compared to Johnson's ratings amongst English citizens - only polls, I know, but the differences are very striking.

 

I'm not particularly interested in opinion polls, its not opinions polls that determine how we get out of this.

I am interested in data though. it is tempting to look at the data and conclude that a perculiarly English reponse is the cause of the different trajectories particularly if you begin with the hope or expectation of seeing this conclusion in the data. Problem is this approach does not help make good policy and sometimes you need to look beyond the personalities and instead focus on what can be proven to work and what cannot.

 

[PurpleCanary 5,556]

25 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm not particularly interested in opinion polls, its not opinions polls that determine how we get out of this.

I am interested in data though. it is tempting to look at the data and conclude that a perculiarly English reponse is the cause of the different trajectories particularly if you begin with the hope or expectation of seeing this conclusion in the data. Problem is this approach does not help make good policy and sometimes you need to look beyond the personalities and instead focus on what can be proven to work and what cannot.

 

I have mainly kept out of this because I am smart enough to realise there are several posters here who plainly know much more about the subject than I do, even if they don't all agree with one another.

But I do know a bit about politics, and that you cannot exclude personality as a factor, not least because politics is about choice and personality influences political choice.

And that applies even in this case where supposedly there was the science to follow, because not only was there not one agreed scientific view to follow but even with the various views there were still questions with lockdowns, for example, of the timing and the scope and the severity.

All choices within  the basic decison of whether to have a lockdown that would get different answers from politicians with different personalities, and did. Strikingly different answers. And that still applies. Even if scientists agree on what is proven to work and what is shown not to you will still get different choices made by politicians.

[Van wink 2,994]

5 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Well one very obvious example came before any lockdown easing even started and that was the approach to children returning to school, and whilst almost by definition there must be similarities in the way 'unlock' has happened everywhere there are clear differences in the details and most importantly in the timing between what has happened in Scotland and England.

As for the data, it is all publically available and I'm quite sure you know where to find it, perhaps you just choose not to look but even so I find it hard to believe that you are unaware how low recent deaths are in Scotland (and Wales and NI) compared to England. You may have also missed the polls which are showing a very marked difference in the levels of trust, leadership and competence  amongst Scottish citizens in Sturgeon, compared to Johnson's ratings amongst English citizens - only polls, I know, but the differences are very striking.

Perhaps ignorance is bliss, that appears to be VW's approach 😀

Snide remark CM, unnecessary but not out of character. Something you can get away with when you know what your talking about, unfortunately you appear to have failed on both fronts. Where is the data to show that Scotland had any significant difference in outcome from the pandemic due to different  policy choices from England?