Corona Virus main thread

[Bill 1,788]

2 minutes ago, Herman said:

A lot of Conservative donors own a vast amount of commercial property. If people get too comfortable working from home, which has worked brilliantly, a lot of empty offices will appear, a lot of properties will become less money making. 

That leads to the thought that companies might lose a commercial advantage if they continue to rent offices, and pay for commuting for their employees

And as the economy hits the skids it would be foolish not to cut costs where possible

 

ps perhaps Mr Johnson could seek advice from the ever honest Tory MP, Robert Jenrick... about London property

[Van wink 2,994]

New case numbers don’t appear to be falling, back up to over 2000 per day according to the ZOE Kings College study.

[Van wink 2,994]

4 hours ago, Icecream Snow said:

For a guy that nearly died from the Coronavirus Boris is taking a staggeringly cavalier attitude to the next steps. Literally a day after Patrick Vallance says there's no need for the working from home policy to change, Boris announces it's going to change.

Absolutely, big gamble.

[Herman 9,694]

Daily number of COVID-19 associated UK deaths 114

1 in Wales.

0 in Scotland

0 in Northern Ireland.

[ricardo 7,328]

50 minutes ago, Herman said:

Daily number of COVID-19 associated UK deaths 114

1 in Wales.

0 in Scotland

0 in Northern Ireland.

16 deaths in English hospitals today. Most of the rest are back dated revisions as far back as April.

[Herman 9,694]

Thanks Ricardo. Treble figures still worries me. Are your figures from PHE?

[ricardo 7,328]

These are the figures for all settings showing the updating.

Looks like the true figure is running at under 60 a day now.

The ONS weekly totals are more revealing

w/e 14/07 412
w/e 07/07 522
w/e 30/06 733
w/e 23/06 755
w/e 16/06 926
 

Edited July 17, 2020 by ricardo

[Herman 9,694]

Nice one Sir Tom.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

17 minutes ago, Herman said:

Thanks Ricardo. Treble figures still worries me. Are your figures from PHE?

PHE figures are being reviewed as I guess you know judging from the question. Just in case you don’t it appears PHE have been reporting any death where a COVID test has been positive, no matter how long ago the test was taken as a COVID death. That means that ultimately there will be over 200k COVID deaths as we all pop our clogs eventually. The Scots have a cut off date of 28 days after the test. 

[ricardo 7,328]

31 minutes ago, Van wink said:

PHE figures are being reviewed as I guess you know judging from the question. Just in case you don’t it appears PHE have been reporting any death where a COVID test has been positive, no matter how long ago the test was taken as a COVID death. That means that ultimately there will be over 200k COVID deaths as we all pop our clogs eventually. The Scots have a cut off date of 28 days after the test. 

Yes, the whole thing is open to all sorts of fiddling. Some countries are quite openly concealing the true figures while others don't have comparable reporting procedures. Any attempt at comparisons is fraught with difficulties.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

16 deaths in English hospitals today. Most of the rest are back dated revisions as far back as April.

So you could argue that lockdown was eased when the figures were actually worse.

Very confusing today when Patrick Vallance was very positive there will be be a second wave, as he intimated, there always is.

That isn't science, that is weather forecasting.

[Bill 1,788]

44 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

So you could argue that lockdown was eased when the figures were actually worse.

Very confusing today when Patrick Vallance was very positive there will be be a second wave, as he intimated, there always is.

That isn't science, that is weather forecasting.

It was more a case of saying the conditions that increase the chances of the virus spreading are more prevelant in the autumn, and so action needs to be taken to prepare for that probability now

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/action-to-stop-winter-covid-19-second-wave-in-uk-must-start-now

 

[ricardo 7,328]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

So you could argue that lockdown was eased when the figures were actually worse.

 All you can say with any certainty is that numbers appear to be continuing to fall steadily as is shown by the weekly data. What is also clear is that in large parts of the UK the virus has all but disappeared.

Most people still think the numbers announced on the news are those that died yesterday, this is plainly false.

As for a second wave in the autumn I guess events will prove the theory right or wrong. I remain dubious of the scary numbers forecast recently.

[Herman 9,694]

Making it clearer would help. The deaths today clearly announced with deaths from previous days kept seperate.

Edited July 17, 2020 by Herman
Repetiton.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

31 minutes ago, ricardo said:

 All you can say with any certainty is that numbers appear to be continuing to fall steadily as is shown by the weekly data. What is also clear is that in large parts of the UK the virus has all but disappeared.

Most people still think the numbers announced on the news are those that died yesterday, this is plainly false.

As for a second wave in the autumn I guess events will prove the theory right or wrong. I remain dubious of the scary numbers forecast recently.

I would be unsure that the virus has disappeared. If we are to believe that up to 80% of us are asymptomatic, then there may well be a danger still lurking.

And I don't mean from people dying but a return to stiffer closures.

[Bill 1,788]

18 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I would be unsure that the virus has disappeared. If we are to believe that up to 80% of us are asymptomatic, then there may well be a danger still lurking.

And I don't mean from people dying but a return to stiffer closures.

I presume no pun meant 🥰

[Aggy 747]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

 All you can say with any certainty is that numbers appear to be continuing to fall steadily as is shown by the weekly data. What is also clear is that in large parts of the UK the virus has all but disappeared.

Most people still think the numbers announced on the news are those that died yesterday, this is plainly false.

As for a second wave in the autumn I guess events will prove the theory right or wrong. I remain dubious of the scary numbers forecast recently.

Pretty much all figures in general I’m taking a bit lightly - the deaths aren’t always reported correctly (as in dates being clear), the new infections even less so (and often comparisons and “second waves” don’t take into account increased testing or view increased infections against the death rates) and the guesswork for the future is that - guesswork.

When it was all starting, the Imperial College figures predicted if no action was taken there would be over 500,000 deaths in the Uk and 2.2m deaths in the US between the start of April and end of June. So 2.7m deaths in the UK and USA in a three month period....In reality we’ve had less than eight per cent of that in a six month period. Obviously lockdown has had an effect, but it certainly wasn’t a quick or strict lockdown in the Uk and even less so in the US, so I just don’t believe we’d have had anywhere near 2.7m deaths in the UK and USA between April and end of June if we’d done nothing.

Edited: sorry heavily edited!

Edited July 17, 2020 by Aggy

[Van wink 2,994]

9 hours ago, ricardo said:

 All you can say with any certainty is that numbers appear to be continuing to fall steadily as is shown by the weekly data. What is also clear is that in large parts of the UK the virus has all but disappeared.

 

There is no certainty as you say, I wouldn’t be confident that numbers of infections are continuing to fall, from the data I read they have started going up again, the increase is within a margin of error that at best would suggest the numbers have plateaued, but not going down. Figures for North Norfolk appear to be increasing. This is all to be expected with easing of restrictions, but the figures are still far too high to be be easing restrictions as we are doing, too much residual infection  in the community.

Edited July 18, 2020 by Van wink

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

10 hours ago, Bill said:

I presume no pun meant 🥰

I wish I had thought of it though😁

[Rock The Boat 1,322]

On 17/07/2020 at 11:50, Icecream Snow said:

For a guy that nearly died from the Coronavirus Boris is taking a staggeringly cavalier attitude to the next steps. Literally a day after Patrick Vallance says there's no need for the working from home policy to change, Boris announces it's going to change.

It's not cavalier, it's a realisation that the main threat is now the economy and we have to get people back to work. We know this virus has minimum impact on those of working age, so it is the right thing to do

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

I'm sure that not so pretty Patel will make it very easy for young eager/well off Hong Kong residents to come here and work, pay taxes and replace the many thousands who can't be bothered.  The Rishi Sunak special, not taken up by those who booked at Rick Steins and various other restaurants, reneging on their booking, resulting in fingerwagging comments from the chefs once again makes it obvious that this cabinet of loser's controls nothing.

Add the end of year economic calamity, cutting off all companies exports, unless they have EORI's or existing offices in Europe, will compound the bounders woe's some more and voters will not forgive the Tories for letting him get away with it.

All this whilst new holiday resorts in the arctic circle and Siberia are opening up their beaches with 100 deg. Fahrenheit, just as BA sells off/recycles their 747 aluminium. Mind some 14000 can't pay for holidays as they have not had their Guaranteed ABTA approved refunds for flights that never happened.

wishing you all an adequate summer.

[Barbe bleu 809]

4 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

It's not cavalier, it's a realisation that the main threat is now the economy and we have to get people back to work. We know this virus has minimum impact on those of working age, so it is the right thing to do

The evidence is increasingly pointing to either a seasonal effect or to the start of herd immunity (or a bit of both) and we do need to make up for lost ground on the economy.

Pubs opened two weeks ago, shops before then and we had the protests a while ago.  If infection rates don't jump in the next two weeks there is certainly an argument for encouraging greater spending and socialising amongst those in low risk groups. I'd probably want to give it just a few days more to see the inpacr of the last round of openings but I think there does come a point when business must make its own decisions.

Edited July 18, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[ricardo 7,328]

The **** up over the numbers is ridiculous. Now we find they include people who might have had it in February and got hit by a bus or fell off a roof in July.

[sonyc 5,481]

13 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The **** up over the numbers is ridiculous. Now we find they include people who might have had it in February and got hit by a bus or fell off a roof in July.

Agreed. PHE doesn't come out it very well. 

[Van wink 2,994]

33 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The **** up over the numbers is ridiculous. Now we find they include people who might have had it in February and got hit by a bus or fell off a roof in July.

Yep anyone with a positive test who eventually pops their clogs will be recorded as a Covid death under the current system in England. Has always been the way the figures are recorded and it’s shown in the small print, it explains why Scotland seem to be doing so much better, they have a 28 day cut off date.

[ricardo 7,328]

22 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Agreed. PHE doesn't come out it very well. 

Yes it seems like you can never recover from it even if you die from something unrelated and months later, its still a Covid death.

[Aggy 747]

45 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yep anyone with a positive test who eventually pops their clogs will be recorded as a Covid death under the current system in England. Has always been the way the figures are recorded and it’s shown in the small print, it explains why Scotland seem to be doing so much better, they have a 28 day cut off date.

I’m not so sure it explains why Scotland has fewer infections and deaths. It might be a part of it, but other reports suggest that fewer than ten per cent of covid deaths happen more than twenty eight days after a test, and half of those still had it when tested after/on death. So there’s probably a five per cent swing as a result of the English method of counting, but not enough alone to explain the differences between England and Scotland.  

[Barbe bleu 809]

34 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I’m not so sure it explains why Scotland has fewer infections and deaths. It might be a part of it, but other reports suggest that fewer than ten per cent of covid deaths happen more than twenty eight days after a test, and half of those still had it when tested after/on death. So there’s probably a five per cent swing as a result of the English method of counting, but not enough alone to explain the differences between England and Scotland.  

The explanation, it's the big open spaces in Scotland isn't it?

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

The time to hammer Johnson is nearly upon us.

The infection is decreasing. It has reached a level where our continued perseverance with social distancing etc has become part of our daily routine so though there may well be spikes, we are over the worst.

Any further wave in the winter should be contained as surely enough has been learned.

But that doesn't excuse the total cluster fcuk this mob of chancers has managed to concoct. There have been too many deaths to let this pass as "we did a good job in the circumstances".

[ricardo 7,328]

2 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

The time to hammer Johnson is nearly upon us.

The infection is decreasing. It has reached a level where our continued perseverance with social distancing etc has become part of our daily routine so though there may well be spikes, we are over the worst.

Any further wave in the winter should be contained as surely enough has been learned.

But that doesn't excuse the total cluster fcuk this mob of chancers has managed to concoct. There have been too many deaths to let this pass as "we did a good job in the circumstances".

Too late its moving back to the government.