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Can this lot be quarantined, and the rest of the UK go back to work now then? 

And how well do these geographical areas match up to the "red wall" ?  

 

 

This lot.jpg

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27 minutes ago, Surfer said:

Can this lot be quarantined, and the rest of the UK go back to work now then? 

And how well do these geographical areas match up to the "red wall" ?  

 

 

This lot.jpg

Don't do that.....It would mean i'd be posting a lot more! No more lockdowns please.

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News night doing a piece on care homes. Summary is that care homes have long been marginalised in comparison with the NHS, have not been thought of as part of the front line and so have now and historically been overlooked.

Some care homes realising that they would not get due attention took the initiative and went above and beyond, some stuck to the advice, a small number were not compliant. The differences show.

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I believe it's very clear, even now, as countries begin mini shutdowns (Japan, Serbia, Australia etc) that the virus is long lasting and isn't dying out or going away. It will be about into 2021.

And we will continue certainly with football behind closed doors and all the other social distancing measures (shops, public places...) for a long time. It will kill the arts and most sport which requires a crowd to sustain. I'm very gloomy in my outlook I accept. The economy will have to try and recover in different ways (online). 

I wonder if there are any posters who have knowledge of the 1918 pandemic and how long that lasted? Not that you can perhaps compare the two but it maybe is one of only a few yardsticks?

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25 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I believe it's very clear, even now, as countries begin mini shutdowns (Japan, Serbia, Australia etc) that the virus is long lasting and isn't dying out or going away. It will be about into 2021.

And we will continue certainly with football behind closed doors and all the other social distancing measures (shops, public places...) for a long time. It will kill the arts and most sport which requires a crowd to sustain. I'm very gloomy in my outlook I accept. The economy will have to try and recover in different ways (online). 

I wonder if there are any posters who have knowledge of the 1918 pandemic and how long that lasted? Not that you can perhaps compare the two but it maybe is one of only a few yardsticks?

When was the last time you left the house sonyc? Go and get some fresh air and cheer up!

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2 hours ago, sonyc said:

I believe it's very clear, even now, as countries begin mini shutdowns (Japan, Serbia, Australia etc) that the virus is long lasting and isn't dying out or going away. It will be about into 2021.

And we will continue certainly with football behind closed doors and all the other social distancing measures (shops, public places...) for a long time. It will kill the arts and most sport which requires a crowd to sustain. I'm very gloomy in my outlook I accept. The economy will have to try and recover in different ways (online). 

I wonder if there are any posters who have knowledge of the 1918 pandemic and how long that lasted? Not that you can perhaps compare the two but it maybe is one of only a few yardsticks?

You are forgetting the vaccine work.  It won't be as bad as you fear 

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Richard S. we are clinging on to the hope that, although another virus outbreak (peak) is as likely to return as not, it is of a less virulent form, that immunity to it is a valid concept and that lessons have been learnt by all.This includes the Government, the scientists/medics and the general public. Track and trace need be up to the demands.

There can be no more national lockdowns so precautions are necessary until that vaccine arrives.

Edited by BroadstairsR

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12 minutes ago, BroadstairsR said:

Richard S. we are clinging on to the hope that, although another virus outbreak (peak) is as likely to return as not, it is of a less virulent form, that immunity to it is a valid concept and that lessons have been learnt by all.This includes the Government, the scientists/medics and the general public. Track and trace need be up to the demands.

There can be no more national lockdowns so precautions are necessary until that vaccine arrives.

I cany disagree with that (although I am not wholly convinced that there is any pressure on this to mutate to a less virulent form) but isn't the real goal to keep this wrapped up until the vaccine is ready?

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1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

How long did it take you to type out all those figures on Excel Ricardo?

What if you had been one cell out?

I usually leave that job to one of my other log ins.

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10 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I cany disagree with that (although I am not wholly convinced that there is any pressure on this to mutate to a less virulent form) but isn't the real goal to keep this wrapped up until the vaccine is ready?

No vaccine has ever been produced to act against a virus. Perhaps there will be effective treatments.

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3 minutes ago, Jools said:

Judging by the make up of the populations in the top cities & Towns most affected by the virus, quarantining BAME groups would help quell the spread somewhat...

I'm sure the former Labour voters who voted for the Conservatives in the last election would agree.

I may as well respond now I'm on this thread. I think the issue is housing density not a matter of ethnicity. Just saying this even though I have to assume you might be trying to be provocative.

Edited by sonyc

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Just now, sonyc said:

I may as well respond now I'm on this tgread. I think the issue is housing density not a matter of ethnicity. Just saying this even though I have to assume you might be trying to be provocative.

Stating that BAME groups in society have been more affected by the virus is simply telling the truth..

And there's nothing provocative about it.

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Just now, Jools said:

Stating that BAME groups in society have been more affected by the virus is simply telling the truth..

And there's nothing provocative about it.

Yes but your comment is untrue. Palpably.

To give one example, Bradford's BAME population is made up of just over 20% (have lived and worked here for over 40 years). Why would not quarantining 7/10 of the population that is White / British and locking down the BAME help? Are you suggesting only BAME groups spread the virus?

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21 minutes ago, sonyc said:

No vaccine has ever been produced to act against a virus. Perhaps there will be effective treatments.

So my yearly flu vaccination is a waste of time and NHS rescources then?

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13 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yes but your comment is untrue. Palpably.

To give one example, Bradford's BAME population is made up of just over 20% (have lived and worked here for over 40 years). Why would not quarantining 7/10 of the population that is White / British and locking down the BAME help? Are you suggesting only BAME groups spread the virus?

Anyone who has it can spread it. Ethnicity only seems to be a factor in susceptability, possibly vitamin D related, but that is only speculation.

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13 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Anyone who has it can spread it. Ethnicity only seems to be a factor in susceptability, possibly vitamin D related, but that is only speculation.

Aye, as Sonyc says a lot of it is to do with housing quality and density but you also have to look at occupations amongst the communites. Leicester re-peaked mainly to do with the textile industry, where you tend to work in smaller areas (and some ****house bosses by the sounds of it).

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39 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Anyone who has it can spread it. Ethnicity only seems to be a factor in susceptability, possibly vitamin D related, but that is only speculation.

Presumably susceptibility here meaning more likely to have serious consequences such as death or admitted to intensive care.... (rather than more susceptible to just catching it in the first place)?

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3 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Presumably susceptibility here meaning more likely to have serious consequences such as death or admitted to intensive care.... (rather than more susceptible to just catching it in the first place)?

Yes, that is probably correct. I have been following the vitamin D research for several months and it does seem to have some validity although it may only be one factor among many. It also seems that some blood groups are affected to a greater or lesser extent.

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

So my yearly flu vaccination is a waste of time and NHS rescources then?

Should have stated that none has ever been approved for use for any coronavirus Ricardo

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

Aye, as Sonyc says a lot of it is to do with housing quality and density but you also have to look at occupations amongst the communites. Leicester re-peaked mainly to do with the textile industry, where you tend to work in smaller areas (and some ****house bosses by the sounds of it).

Agree. It's a more nuanced picture and not about a person's ethnicity as the main characteristic (then suggesting those people are quarantined). 

Edited by sonyc

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5 hours ago, Aggy said:

When was the last time you left the house sonyc? Go and get some fresh air and cheer up!

I'm cheerful enough Aggy, never a problem. Often a poster with positive thoughts too. Nor someone not getting out either (that little dog needs 3 daily walks!).

My point was about the apparent longevity of this outbreak and realisation that this looks like being a problem for longer than I certainly thought. Some people have knowledge I seem to recall about the 1918 pandemic, being up on their history / epidemiology. Yet, maybe I should have kept my thoughts to myself on this occasion 🙂

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Yes, that is probably correct. I have been following the vitamin D research for several months and it does seem to have some validity although it may only be one factor among many. It also seems that some blood groups are affected to a greater or lesser extent.

And so much more to learn. I posted many months ago about the possibility of faecal-oral spread, this seems to be being reported again. Another concern seems to be that the second wave in Melbourne appears to be spreading faster than the initial wave. I would treat that view with some scepticism atm but what we do most certainly know is that there is much we are ignorant of when it comes to CV19. The critical thing is to take every possible realistic measure we can to prevent spread.

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28 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I'm cheerful enough Aggy, never a problem. Often a poster with positive thoughts too. Nor someone not getting out either (that little dog needs 3 daily walks!).

My point was about the apparent longevity of this outbreak and realisation that this looks like being a problem for longer than I certainly thought. Some people have knowledge I seem to recall about the 1918 pandemic, being up on their history / epidemiology. Yet, maybe I should have kept my thoughts to myself on this occasion 🙂

It’s here till we gain herd immunity, and some, if it makes significant mutation.

Edited by Van wink

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Agree VW. Herd immunity will take years won't it given latest research indications. (5.2% I recall in a major Spanish study).

Whatever report you read though it is getting clearer that C19 continues to confound and surprise the scientific community. So, agree about the learning point made in an earlier post.

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3 hours ago, sonyc said:

I'm cheerful enough Aggy, never a problem. Often a poster with positive thoughts too. Nor someone not getting out either (that little dog needs 3 daily walks!).

My point was about the apparent longevity of this outbreak and realisation that this looks like being a problem for longer than I certainly thought. Some people have knowledge I seem to recall about the 1918 pandemic, being up on their history / epidemiology. Yet, maybe I should have kept my thoughts to myself on this occasion 🙂

No issues Sonyc. I haven’t posted much on this thread recently as i don’t really see the point. As I’ve said a couple of times now, people need to get used to what it is. We’re not going to go into mass nationwide lockdown again unless things get extremely bad - some on here almost seem to want full strict lockdown to last In perpetuity. 

The Spanish fu went on for c3 years but killed up to 50million. We’ve had 500k worldwide deaths in over half a year and many places which had it early are now on top of it or are going in the right direction. Comparisons to the Spanish Flu don’t help anyone - it’s scaremongering and panic inducing when the reality is this is nowhere near as bad. 

Some context needs to be considered and the panic and overreaction needs to be tempered. There will continue to be risk to some, but there will be a return to something like normality for most (for whom there is very little risk - see percentages I posted yesterday). The weekly deaths nationwide are now back below the five year average. Plenty on here posted loads about “the young” having to just accept lockdown and get on with it, comparing this little “sacrifice” to much bigger sacrifices made by people in the past. But now the wider population needs to get that same “get on with it” attitude. Is it going to go away overnight? No. Are we going to have to get used to living with it? Yes. The death rates are manageable and low now (as above, the last few weeks have been below 5 yearly average weekly deaths for the same weeks). Constantly analysing 50 new infections on the other side of the world and trying to suggest it’s something worse than it is doesn’t help anyone. 

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3 hours ago, Van wink said:

Another concern seems to be that the second wave in Melbourne appears to be spreading faster than the initial wave.

That’s because the “initial wave” in Australia was contained to the point it was virtually non existent. In Melbourne the most number of new daily cases in this ‘second wave’ is still under 200 new infections (not deaths but infections) daily. Let’s not try and suggest Melbourne is some sort of example of it going away and coming back stronger. It’s merely a case of an isolated outbreak which had previously been pretty much avoided in Australia and has now flared up. Nothing more nothing less.

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