Corona Virus main thread

[Van wink 2,994]

So what’s the view on yesterday, did the great unwashed generally behave or were all the the predictions of doom realised. Not seen a lot in the media so my assumption is that in general people did the right thing, very encouraging if that’s the case. 

[Herman 9,710]

Soho looked a bit of a nightmare, a bit of "Saturday night's alright for fighting" and queueing to get into a Wetherspoons but I think most people and pubs were sensible in spite of the government. My local locked its doors when it was "full" to its self imposed limit which was good.

[Aggy 750]

22 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Lots of press that the R in London might have crept back up above one.  Not surprising given all the crowds over the last few weeks but still disappointing if true.  Luckily the base is now very low so might not be much spread.

 

See how the death toll is impacted. That’s what’s important. The R is irrelevant if it just shows more teens and twenty year olds on nights are getting infected but they just get ill for a few days and recover. In many ways, if the R shoots up and deaths don’t, then that could be seen as good - shows we can get most people back to something like “normal” whilst shielding the vulnerable. Let’s see what happens. 

[Jools 584]

There's an outside chance that Covid has been knocking around for 12 months.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-science/coronavirus-traces-found-in-march-2019-sewage-sample-spanish-study-shows-idUKKBN23X2HQ

 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Aggy said:

See how the death toll is impacted. That’s what’s important. The R is irrelevant if it just shows more teens and twenty year olds on nights are getting infected but they just get ill for a few days and recover. In many ways, if the R shoots up and deaths don’t, then that could be seen as good - shows we can get most people back to something like “normal” whilst shielding the vulnerable. Let’s see what happens. 

If the R shoots up  I fear the deaths will shoot up. We still don’t really know who the vulnerable are, what is becoming more and more clear is that the obese are a hugely vulnerable group, as R goes up then more people in that group will get infected and more will die. 

Edited July 5, 2020 by Van wink

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

1 hour ago, Aggy said:

See how the death toll is impacted. That’s what’s important. The R is irrelevant if it just shows more teens and twenty year olds on nights are getting infected but they just get ill for a few days and recover. In many ways, if the R shoots up and deaths don’t, then that could be seen as good - shows we can get most people back to something like “normal” whilst shielding the vulnerable. Let’s see what happens. 

That's true to an extent but you have to bear in mind that if the R has gone back above 1 then it is entirely possible that the death rate may still decline for at least 2-3 weeks and probably longer before the increased infection rate starts to show up as rising deaths - assuming that it does, although its possible that it may not.

If unfortunately, the death rate does start to rise in a few weeks time then again we will face the situation, just as we did with Johnson's dithering at the start, that in those few weeks before the death rate starts rising again the number of cases will have increased significantly and doubtless spread out from London and increased the R in many other areas of the country as well.

Edited July 5, 2020 by Creative Midfielder

[Aggy 750]

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

If the R shoots up  I fear the deaths will shoot up. We still don’t really know who the vulnerable are, what is becoming more and more clear is that the obese are a hugely vulnerable group, as R goes up then more people in that group will get infected and more will die. 

Still, what’s the average age of deaths? 82 isn’t it? Only 3,000 out of 49,000 deaths in the Uk have been under 65. How many 82 year olds were in Soho last night? Let’s wait and see. It might result in loads more deaths. It might not. My expectation is that it doesn’t lead to a massive amount more deaths and the vulnerable and elderly will then need to get used to being shielded while everyone else can get back to something like normal.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181]

4 hours ago, Jools said:

There's an outside chance that Covid has been knocking around for 12 months.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-science/coronavirus-traces-found-in-march-2019-sewage-sample-spanish-study-shows-idUKKBN23X2HQ

 

Interesting, thanks 

If this is corroborated by further study, I wonder why it took so long to get a hold 

[Bill 1,788]

Clear evidence now confirms that ideology over medical need was one of the reasons for PPE shortage

However, not surprising the UK is now going back to the EU, cap in hand, to re-join various initiatives

"A commission official said the UK was not included on the original email list because it had already left the EU, but added there had been “ample opportunity” for the British government to join four schemes to bulk-buy medical supplies launched earlier this year.

The UK has since decided to join an EU procurement scheme to obtain intensive care medicines, such as antibiotics and anaesthetics, the Guardian has learned.

The government is also in talks to join the EU’s coronavirus vaccine plan, and is seeking access to the EU’s pandemic warning system throughout the post-Brexit talks.''

The article also outlines how Rabb lied about what happened  - and will undoubtedly raise the question of how many died because of this ideological stupidity

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/06/eu-clyommission-rejects-raab-claims-medical-procurement-row

 

[Herman 9,710]

The blame game.🤨

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jul/06/anger-after-johnson-appears-to-blame-care-homes-for-their-high-death-toll

[Barbe bleu 812]

Interesting piece on news night about  t cells and how antibody studies might be underestimating real levels of immunity

 

[Jools 584]

On 05/07/2020 at 19:35, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Interesting, thanks 

If this is corroborated by further study, I wonder why it took so long to get a hold 

Well, HIWEMs, the Swedes are suggesting the virus is no different to any other flu:

https://softwaredevelopmentperestroika.wordpress.com/2020/07/06/sweden-is-back-to-normal/

And as I suggested back in April, it's looking like the government should've gone with their initial plan of 'Herd Immunity'...

Unfortunately, the government were persuaded to lockdown on the strength of a Lefty scientist who threatened half a million Covid 19 deaths by now...

 

Labour would've done nothing differently --- In fact the consequences would likely have been dire.

[Van wink 2,994]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/07/refusal-to-wear-mask-should-be-as-taboo-as-drink-driving-says-royal-society-chief

It really is and always has been so obvious, well at least to those of us who have any idea about this. There are always a few clowns around, a bit like the vaccination deniers, dangerous and stupid people. 

[Herman 9,710]

7 hours ago, Jools said:

Well, HIWEMs, the Swedes are suggesting the virus is no different to any other flu:

https://softwaredevelopmentperestroika.wordpress.com/2020/07/06/sweden-is-back-to-normal/

And as I suggested back in April, it's looking like the government should've gone with their initial plan of 'Herd Immunity'...

Unfortunately, the government were persuaded to lockdown on the strength of a Lefty scientist who threatened half a million Covid 19 deaths by now...

 

Labour would've done nothing differently --- In fact the consequences would likely have been dire.

Blimey, you write some utter pony at times but this is probably the worst I've seen. A clear refusal to look at the facts to see what actually happened and is happening.

[Aggy 750]

43 minutes ago, Van wink said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/07/refusal-to-wear-mask-should-be-as-taboo-as-drink-driving-says-royal-society-chief

It really is and always has been so obvious, well at least to those of us who have any idea about this. There are always a few clowns around, a bit like the vaccination deniers, dangerous and stupid people. 

As one of the self appointed non-clowns, to whom it has always been so obvious, I surely hope you’ve never risked the life of an elderly person by walking around without a mask in public at any point in your life VW, otherwise the pomposity and self righteousness of this post is going to look very silly and hypocritical. Unless it was okay for those of you who have always known this to knowingly risk lives by potentially spreading “normal” flu and who knows what else for the past however many years?

[Van wink 2,994]

Looks like my sights are out😁

[sonyc 5,488]

8 hours ago, Jools said:

Well, HIWEMs, the Swedes are suggesting the virus is no different to any other flu:

https://softwaredevelopmentperestroika.wordpress.com/2020/07/06/sweden-is-back-to-normal/

And as I suggested back in April, it's looking like the government should've gone with their initial plan of 'Herd Immunity'...

Unfortunately, the government were persuaded to lockdown on the strength of a Lefty scientist who threatened half a million Covid 19 deaths by now...

 

Labour would've done nothing differently --- In fact the consequences would likely have been dire.

A study has just been completed in Spain where only 5% have registered antibodies. If you check, it indicates that the herd immunity argument appears now to be refuted.

 Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain (ENE-COVID): a nationwide, population-based seroepidemiological study - The Lancet

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext

 

Edited July 7, 2020 by sonyc

[sonyc 5,488]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/07/refusal-to-wear-mask-should-be-as-taboo-as-drink-driving-says-royal-society-chief

It really is and always has been so obvious, well at least to those of us who have any idea about this. There are always a few clowns around, a bit like the vaccination deniers, dangerous and stupid people. 

I think for indoor locations it makes sense. Let's face it, nothing has much changed and we're going to have to accept a new kind of everyday life, possibly for years. 

[sonyc 5,488]

And those Johnson words on the care sector are  being properly criticised (along the lines of a travesty of moral leadership)...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-coronavirus-care-home-deaths-a9604951.html

 

[sonyc 5,488]

Following up on the Lancet link (replying to Jools...

Coronavirus: Spanish study casts doubt on herd immunity feasibility - BBC News

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53315983

 

[sonyc 5,488]

On 02/07/2020 at 07:58, Aggy said:

That’s 300k going into lockdown though. The new infections in the whole of Asutralia are 80 a day. In this area about to lockdown, it’s gone up from single digit numbers to the teens and low twenties, which is why the localised restrictions are coming back in. We can live with 15 new infections a day.

My point is rather as you say in your last paragraph - there is no real evidence of a massive second wave anywhere. Iran is the one where you could perhaps argue, but the figures there are firstly perhaps slightly unreliable and secondly only very briefly dropped at all - so I’m not convinced they had ever really got on top of it. Everywhere else though (S Korea, Beijing, sure there was one or two more potential “second wave” outbreaks) - you get localised outbreaks which are nipped in the bud early.

If you look at the figures in NZ and Australia, they never really had a first “wave”. Quite clear to me that if you get on top of it (or in the case of NZ/Australia never let it take hold in the first place) it isn’t too difficult to manage. The problem is that most countries in the world were slow to act and let it get out of hand in the first place. That then puts those countries in a difficult health vs economy position - whereas in NZ, the economy can now more readily start to open up because they are so much on top of the health situation.

 

Still prevalent Aggy. Whatever name it is given (second wave or continuation of the first).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/coronavirus-australia-melbourne-lockdown-cases-deaths-a9604916.html

[Herman 9,710]

8 minutes ago, sonyc said:

And those Johnson words on the care sector are  being properly criticised (along the lines of a travesty of moral leadership)...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-coronavirus-care-home-deaths-a9604951.html

 

I read a comment yesterday, after two good pieces of government work, Sunak on the arts bail out and Raab on the Magnitsky Act, that it wouldn't take long for them to balls it up again. And here we are, a few short hours later, the PM trying to push the blame on people who have been doing one of the toughest jobs in the country. They just can't help themselves.

[sonyc 5,488]

18 minutes ago, Herman said:

I read a comment yesterday, after two good pieces of government work, Sunak on the arts bail out and Raab on the Magnitsky Act, that it wouldn't take long for them to balls it up again. And here we are, a few short hours later, the PM trying to push the blame on people who have been doing one of the toughest jobs in the country. They just can't help themselves.

Agree. The arts bailout was far superior than I expected and Raab decisive. Perhaps with the 'little' things, the workaday care sector is just not understood or respected as having value. Yet for a PM in charge of a pandemic with care home strategy mistakes, his comments were ill-placed surely? And for such a person, we can only assume they were quite deliberate. So why back track then? If they were not deliberate, it shows a crass and staggering lack of empathy.

Edited July 7, 2020 by sonyc
grammar

[Herman 9,710]

From previous evidence it is likely one of Cuming's wheezes to get the snowball rolling down the hill. Johnson says something, people kick off so it gets amplified, then the client journalists at the Telegraph and Mail bring it up getting more amplification, then more anger etc.

 

Edited July 7, 2020 by Herman
c u m m i n g is not rude.

[Herman 9,710]

38 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Following up on the Lancet link (replying to Jools...

Coronavirus: Spanish study casts doubt on herd immunity feasibility - BBC News

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53315983

 

Reading this El Pais article even amongst the emergency services it is low.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-07-06/final-round-of-coronavirus-study-confirms-that-52-of-spanish-population-has-antibodies.html

[A Load of Squit 5,116]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

I read a comment yesterday, after two good pieces of government work, Sunak on the arts bail out and Raab on the Magnitsky Act, that it wouldn't take long for them to balls it up again. And here we are, a few short hours later, the PM trying to push the blame on people who have been doing one of the toughest jobs in the country. They just can't help themselves.

One minute he's clapping them as heroes.

The next he's cr@pping on them as villains.

 

[Barbe bleu 812]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Following up on the Lancet link (replying to Jools...

Coronavirus: Spanish study casts doubt on herd immunity feasibility - BBC News

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53315983

 

Two points I noted: 1) antibodies twice as likely to be detected in the higher age range than the lowest. 2) lots of comfirmed cases had no antibodies detected even after two tests (and lower than published specificity for the tests).

Supports the Swedish findings of immunity without material antibody detection or that children just don't get this disease?

[Barbe bleu 812]

43 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

One minute he's clapping them as heroes.

The next he's cr@pping on them as villains.

 

His comment was that care homes didn't follow procedures. I dont think that it was necessarily a criticism of care home workers .

Its clear that the learning here should focus on care homes.  Perhaps it is right that care homes didn't do things according to procedures, perhaps procedures should have been made clearer, perhaps the procedures were wrong or incomplete.

Lots to learn and we must learn the right lessons.

[Herman 9,710]

The procedure seemed to be dump the old and sick back into homes without testing.

[Barbe bleu 812]

3 minutes ago, Herman said:

The procedure seemed to be dump the old and sick back into homes without testing.

Well, at the start of the crisis it might  have been reasonable to conclude that the nightmare situation would be if the NHS clears its decks and just assumes that care homes will take a precautionary approach and implement the very strictest of infection control measures. Measures it is ill equipped to take

I wonder if there is a disconnect and complete misunderstanding between the two sectors in which fatal assumptions are easy to make. Just my thought based on no particular experience or knowledge.