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1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

But presumably the data is shared with someone that can?

Clearly not if Leicester is anything to go by. 

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Interesting that 70% of people getting C19 are asymptomatic (source Prof. John Bell). Underlines the crucial requirement of testing so that the 30% can be better protected.

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3 hours ago, sonyc said:

I'm hearing that the largest city near me (Bradford) has been experiencing increases and a family friend believes there will possibly be a lockdown coming (assuming this is based on recent absentee figures as she works in a very large organisation). I read Australia is locking down a section of the population too.

It's going to last a long time isn't it?

It's incredible that pubs are opening this weekend. 

They shouldn't be!

Edited by Van wink

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

Clearly not if Leicester is anything to go by. 

There will be a way of doing it I'm sure, what this yet again demonstrates is the governments desire to control everything from the centre and disregard the expertise at local level. If they had been serious from the start about fully utilising the DPH's and LA's they would have ensured that there was proper data sharing in place, it's the basic tool of infection control, HTF can you start investigating an outbreakk if you dont know where the positive cases live!

Edited by Van wink
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I'm a big fan of testing at airports, etc, as people arrive in the country...

But we've had a case a few days ago  where a local woman was returning from the US, she tested negative at Keflavík then found out a few days later that a contact of hers in the States had tested positive. She was tested again, this time positive

 It is believed that she had been infected not long before coming home, so that the virus had been impossible to detect at the airport 

In the meantime she had infected a few people at a party. Not her fault, obviously. 

It looks like they have managed to trace many of her contacts here, so hopefully the virus can still be kept under control 

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Even though your Government has a huge majority, you as a PM are doing badly and the backbenchers and their 1922 committee are grumbling.

So you cave in and agree the economy is more important now despite saying you would never allow a second spike to happen by giving in.

Scrap Trident (a virus can do plenty of damage). Scrap HS2. Borrow more money and prop up the economy.

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1 hour ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

I'm a big fan of testing at airports, etc, as people arrive in the country...

...................so that the virus had been impossible to detect at the airport

err, yes

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1 hour ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

 

 It is believed that she had been infected not long before coming home, so that the virus had been impossible to detect at the airport 

In the meantime she had infected a few people at a party. Not her fault, obviously. 

It looks like they have managed to trace many of her contacts here, so hopefully the virus can still be kept under control 

Good to hear 👍

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8 hours ago, sonyc said:

I'm hearing that the largest city near me (Bradford) has been experiencing increases and a family friend believes there will possibly be a lockdown coming (assuming this is based on recent absentee figures as she works in a very large organisation). I read Australia is locking down a section of the population too.

It's going to last a long time isn't it?

It's incredible that pubs are opening this weekend. 

As with the other examples of “second waves” you’ve mentioned on here though (Korea, Beijing, somewhere else I think too), Australia is hardly one to worry about. 86 new infections, no deaths anywhere in the whole country. Population 25 million.

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12,000 jobs lost in the UK in the last two days the BBC is reporting. And the furlough scheme hasn’t even finished yet. 

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Johnson tried to lie his way out of another case of incompetence  today

before conceding that he had misled the house about what information was given to Leicester

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/01/boris-johnson-challenged-at-pmqs-over-covid-19-test-data-keir-starmer-leicester

.... others might have noted how his guff about it being safe to open all schools was dropped today

get rid of the fat fraud before he kills even more

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More rightwing nutjobs

While it might be mildly amusing to listen to their lunacy, there is a hidden concern that they infect others with their stupidity....... literally. As with the huge spread of measles in the US last autumn.

These believe that diseases lie Covid-19 have been set up to sell drugs. Hence the cretins in the south of the US (Texas, Florida) who have been ignoring guidance on protecting themselves, and are now seeing a huge rise in the number of those infected, and dying

So remember - right stupidity can kill. Be on your guard.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/may/29/why-us-anti-vaxxers-will-refuse-a-coronavirus-vaccine-video

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It is being reported (PHE) that there is emerging evidence that C19 outbreaks may be being driven by young / younger working people, many of whom are asymptomatic. 

Lots more to be understood. More so in understanding how localities are being affected.

Even more rumours around where I live that lockdown may be coming in the next day or two. Already there are messages by the council for people to stay at home, wash hands and not go out if you can avoid it.....Just as the lockdown relaxation "super Saturday" is looming.  Close monitoring is undergoing. A worrying time.

 

Edited by sonyc

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1 hour ago, Aggy said:

As with the other examples of “second waves” you’ve mentioned on here though (Korea, Beijing, somewhere else I think too), Australia is hardly one to worry about. 86 new infections, no deaths anywhere in the whole country. Population 25 million.

This is the link Aggy (Reuters)...

Australia to lock down 300,000 in Melbourne suburbs after coronavirus spike https://nypost.com/2020/07/01/australia-to-lock-down-300000-in-melbourne-suburbs-after-coronavirus-spike/

I think 300k is quite significant in the scheme of things but I take your point out of 25m.

The report mentions a fear of a second wave yet I'm becoming more convinced now that there aren't second waves but actually the virus is simply 'lurking', almost that it is omni-present, waiting for the right conditions. Therefore, these talks of new lockdowns are not due to secondary waves because it never went away in the first place. 

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8 hours ago, sonyc said:

And I don't understand why Leicester wasn't given up to date / live data? Again, surely that is what local authorities need. Our local authority is very communicative and folk would follow guidance.

It would be easy to put this down to simply more government incompetence, But it goes further than that,

It also stems from this bizarre right wing policy of fragmenting much of government work so one hand doesn't know what the other is doing. Fine if you are preparing much to be flogged off into private hands, but an absolute disaster (60,000 plus deaths) when you are faced with a virus like this.

The FT has a good analysis of the failure

https://www.ft.com/content/301c847c-a317-4950-a75b-8e66933d423a

 

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2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Therefore, these talks of new lockdowns are not due to secondary waves because it never went away in the first place. 

I don't think this is what is being claimed, not in the sense of any mutation.

It is simply that with more contact. comes greater exposure to those who have previously not been exposed - so you get an increase in infections.

And it is an increase, not a 'spike' as the figures show an increasing amount, not a static rise. So as the figures are continually rising, not remaining at one point.

Maybe if we cut out the vacuous buzzwords it might be better understood

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3 minutes ago, Bill said:

It would be easy to put this down to simply more government incompetence, But it goes further than that,

It also stems from this bizarre right wing policy of fragmenting much of government work so one hand doesn't know what the other is doing. Fine if you are preparing much to be flogged off into private hands, but an absolute disaster (60,000 plus deaths) when you are faced with a virus like this.

The FT has a good analysis of the failure

https://www.ft.com/content/301c847c-a317-4950-a75b-8e66933d423a

 

The local paper here is bemoaning being kept in the dark by the government and PHE these last few weeks. You're right that a pandemic is probably not best handled so centrally (or in a centrist fashion). Nor can the private sector understand local conditions.

It will all come out soon enough and already many parts of the press are providing good analyses into failures / shortcomings.

There is also a lot more to understand about the virus isn't there.

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4 minutes ago, Bill said:

I don't think this is what is being claimed, not in the sense of any mutation.

It is simply that with more contact. comes greater exposure to those who have previously not been exposed - so you get an increase in infections.

And it is an increase, not a 'spike' as the figures show an increasing amount, not a static rise. So as the figures are continually rising, not remaining at one point.

Maybe if we cut out the vacuous buzzwords it might be better understood

I wasn't suggesting it was being claimed that, it was me not being specific in my use of words. I agree with your points. It is simply due to the propensity of greater exposure.

Edited by sonyc

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2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

The local paper here is bemoaning being kept in the dark by the government and PHE these last few weeks. You're right that a pandemic is probably not best handled so centrally (or in a centrist fashion). Nor can the private sector understand local conditions.

It will all come out soon enough and already many parts of the press are providing good analyses into failures / shortcomings.

There is also a lot more to understand about the virus isn't there.

The private sector will always fail, and has done as failure is it's default position

That being because it has profit as it's core function. You only have to look at the huge waste and failings of the US health care and penal system

Could you imagine if the US armed forces were lumbered with a private health care system ? How many dead would they have suffered over the previous century.

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1 hour ago, Bill said:

More rightwing nutjobs

While it might be mildly amusing to listen to their lunacy, there is a hidden concern that they infect others with their stupidity....... literally. As with the huge spread of measles in the US last autumn.

These believe that diseases lie Covid-19 have been set up to sell drugs. Hence the cretins in the south of the US (Texas, Florida) who have been ignoring guidance on protecting themselves, and are now seeing a huge rise in the number of those infected, and dying

So remember - right stupidity can kill. Be on your guard.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/may/29/why-us-anti-vaxxers-will-refuse-a-coronavirus-vaccine-video

So no virus spikes could possibly be down to the thousands upon thousands of lunatics who make up the Far-Left BLM/Antifa mobs then? 🤪

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1 minute ago, Jools said:

So no virus spikes could possibly be down to the thousands upon thousands of lunatics who make up the Far-Left BLM/Antifa mobs then? 🤪

a virus spike ?

Security Toppings Rota-Spike | Jacksons Fencing

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Godwin's Law already! You have effectively forfeited the argument 🤪

Clown.

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1 hour ago, Jools said:

Godwin's Law already! You have effectively forfeited the argument 🤪

Clown.

Not quite Godwin's Law yet. 

 

And BLM is not far left

 

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8 hours ago, sonyc said:

This is the link Aggy (Reuters)...

Australia to lock down 300,000 in Melbourne suburbs after coronavirus spike https://nypost.com/2020/07/01/australia-to-lock-down-300000-in-melbourne-suburbs-after-coronavirus-spike/

I think 300k is quite significant in the scheme of things but I take your point out of 25m.

The report mentions a fear of a second wave yet I'm becoming more convinced now that there aren't second waves but actually the virus is simply 'lurking', almost that it is omni-present, waiting for the right conditions. Therefore, these talks of new lockdowns are not due to secondary waves because it never went away in the first place. 

That’s 300k going into lockdown though. The new infections in the whole of Asutralia are 80 a day. In this area about to lockdown, it’s gone up from single digit numbers to the teens and low twenties, which is why the localised restrictions are coming back in. We can live with 15 new infections a day.

My point is rather as you say in your last paragraph - there is no real evidence of a massive second wave anywhere. Iran is the one where you could perhaps argue, but the figures there are firstly perhaps slightly unreliable and secondly only very briefly dropped at all - so I’m not convinced they had ever really got on top of it. Everywhere else though (S Korea, Beijing, sure there was one or two more potential “second wave” outbreaks) - you get localised outbreaks which are nipped in the bud early.

If you look at the figures in NZ and Australia, they never really had a first “wave”. Quite clear to me that if you get on top of it (or in the case of NZ/Australia never let it take hold in the first place) it isn’t too difficult to manage. The problem is that most countries in the world were slow to act and let it get out of hand in the first place. That then puts those countries in a difficult health vs economy position - whereas in NZ, the economy can now more readily start to open up because they are so much on top of the health situation.

 

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So the guidance for schools released about an hour ago. The gist of it is:

Wipe **** down, encourage kids to wash their hands, aside from that you're on your own, good luck, hope you all survive.

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So no virus spikes could possibly be down to the thousands upon thousands of lunatics who make up the Far-Left BLM/Antifa mobs then?

Undoubtedly the protests were making the chance of a spike more probable. But not all the protesters were as you describe. That is unless you are saying all Brexit supporters are racist, all Tories are racist. I'm sure many of them them are as equally concerned about the latest developments as anyone else. 

And lets face it, time will probably tell us that your opinions on our role in Europe are lunatic.

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