Corona Virus main thread

[sonyc 5,489]

34 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Although the case-rate in Sweden is the highest its death rate is below that of the UK, Italy or Spain, although now above France's. As others have said no two countries are alike, so comparisons cannot be exact, and if there is at least one more wave that might validate or invalidate different approaches. One point I have noticed is that there seems to be more honesty from the Swedish officials and politicians about where their strategy might have been flawed than from the officials and politicians of one or two other countries.

Their openness in talking about their failures (if we assume indeed they are) has been staggering - on the surface of things anyway. I'm guessing though they can be more direct and honest because the government enjoys a good deal of trust. 

Edited June 5, 2020 by sonyc

[sonyc 5,489]

11 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Which vitamin, I've been taking vitamin D now for weeks.

More of a concern for bald men, particularly bald fat men I suggest

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/bald-men-higher-risk-severe-case-covid-19-research-finds/

Stock up on Cheddar, Jarlsberg, Emmenthal, Edam or blue cheeses! (If you like your cheese). Egg yolks, broccoli etc also decent sources of K

[Barbe bleu 812]

10 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Their openness in talking about their failures (if we assume indeed they are) has been staggering - on the surface of things anyway. I'm guessing though they can be more direct and honest because the government enjoys a good deal of trust. 

From what I have read the epidemiologist says that the mistake was not the strategy but in not protecting care homes well enough (as in "I did my job properly, why didn't they" I suppose)

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

26 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

From what I have read the epidemiologist says that the mistake was not the strategy but in not protecting care homes well enough (as in "I did my job properly, why didn't they" I suppose)

Not at all. He included the failure over care homes in his self-criticism of the overall strategy, so he was admitting to that. You should not judge all officials and politicians by the lamentable standards set by the populists who have come to power in some countries, for whom lying and dissembling are the norm.

[Herman 9,712]

Dare I mention Bob Seely MP??🤣

[Barbe bleu 812]

12 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Not at all. He included the failure over care homes in his self-criticism of the overall strategy, so he was admitting to that. You should not judge all officials and politicians by the lamentable standards set by the populists who have come to power in some countries, for whom lying and dissembling are the norm.

I was going by the following taken from voice of america but there are reports elsewhere for instance :https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/03/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html

 

"...Swedish authorities still thought theirs was the right strategy. Tegnell said it has worked very well in terms of containing the spread of the disease to a level that the Swedish health care system could handle. It has made it possible to keep schools open, which he said was very important for their society.

He acknowledged the “unfortunate” death toll, which he said was mainly in long-term care facilities.  "

 

 

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

11 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I was going by the following taken from voice of america but there are reports elsewhere for instance :https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/03/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-intl/index.html

 

"...Swedish authorities still thought theirs was the right strategy. Tegnell said it has worked very well in terms of containing the spread of the disease to a level that the Swedish health care system could handle. It has made it possible to keep schools open, which he said was very important for their society.

He acknowledged the “unfortunate” death toll, which he said was mainly in long-term care facilities.  "

 

 

 He says the overall concept, of not having a severe lockdown, was right but still there were errors and more should have been done early  on. He admits there was room for improvement. He talks about trying to find a middle way between Sweden’s approach and that of a severe lockdown. And he doesn’t try to avoid blame for the care home deaths.

 

 

 

[ricardo 7,342]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Which vitamin, I've been taking vitamin D now for weeks.

More of a concern for bald men, particularly bald fat men I suggest

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/bald-men-higher-risk-severe-case-covid-19-research-finds/

😉👍

[ricardo 7,342]

 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181]

9 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

No one has said what they would do next apart from kick it off.   I guess everyone is happy with the direction of travel.

 

I would do the following:

Release the tracking app. Why the hell has it taken so long? (Question not aimed at Bb). Encourage people to download it 

Get the track and trace system working properly 

Up the testing rate even further, no fantasy targets, just as many as possible 

Employ as many companies involved in healthcare/testing to achieve the above 

Keep the country open for foreign visitors who are willing to pay for a test on arrival. Maybe consider accepting visitors who have a recent certificate of a negative test undertaken abroad, if I could be convinced it was unlikely they could have contracted the virus between having the test and arrival 

Allow pubs and restaurants, and any other places of entertainment to open as long as they can provide 2m between different groups of people. Try to get as many people working again 

Consult medical experts on likelihood of 2nd wave and make contingency plans

Employ and/or incentivise pharmaceutical companies to develop a vaccine 

Hopefully the government is already doing the last 2 points 

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

19 minutes ago, ricardo said:

 

I bet you wish that graph was as steep coming down as it went up. William will be on throne before they let you out properly.😁😚

[lake district canary 4,531]

2 hours ago, sonyc said:

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

Which vitamin, I've been taking vitamin D now for weeks.

More of a concern for bald men, particularly bald fat men I suggest

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/bald-men-higher-risk-severe-case-covid-19-research-finds/

Stock up on Cheddar, Jarlsberg, Emmenthal, Edam or blue cheeses! (If you like your cheese). Egg yolks, broccoli etc also decent sources of K

There is evidence to show that regardless of covid,  if you are taking vitamin D tablets, you should consider vitamin K tablets as well anyway.  

[sonyc 5,489]

3 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

There is evidence to show that regardless of covid,  if you are taking vitamin D tablets, you should consider vitamin K tablets as well anyway.  

Yes I posted that link about K Lakey. See above in answer to Van Wink (source Guardian today in reference to interesting Dutch analysis). It's promising.

Edited June 5, 2020 by sonyc

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

34 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yes I posted that link about K Lakey. See above in answer to Van Wink (source Guardian today in reference to interesting Dutch analysis). It's promising.

I am not living on a diet of Kale for anyone. Mooo

[sonyc 5,489]

5 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I am not living on a diet of Kale for anyone. Mooo

Eggs, cheese?

[Aggy 752]

8 hours ago, Van wink said:

New cases dropped from over 8000 per day to around 5600 a day in England. Good news but still far to high. I still take the view that with these numbers lockdown has been released to soon but recognise the mitigation around outdoor exposure, social distance and risk. 

If lockdown has been reduced, and the numbers are dropping regardless, on what are you basing your theory that lockdown has been released too soon?

 

7 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Only Sweden, which decided not to impose a lockdown, has a higher rate of infection.

And yet 1 in every 2205 Swedes has died as opposed to 1 in every 1655 in the UK. So either the Swedes have better immune systems or the “infection” stats mean very little.

[wcorkcanary 4,329]

5 hours ago, Crafty Canary said:

also have red chinos and shorts. 👍👍

With rugger shirt and navy blue Jersey, not worn but slung over the shoulders  , sleeves tied.?

 

[Barbe bleu 812]

1 hour ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

I would do the following:

Release the tracking app. Why the hell has it taken so long? (Question not aimed at Bb). Encourage people to download it 

Get the track and trace system working properly 

Up the testing rate even further, no fantasy targets, just as many as possible 

Employ as many companies involved in healthcare/testing to achieve the above 

Keep the country open for foreign visitors who are willing to pay for a test on arrival. Maybe consider accepting visitors who have a recent certificate of a negative test undertaken abroad, if I could be convinced it was unlikely they could have contracted the virus between having the test and arrival 

Allow pubs and restaurants, and any other places of entertainment to open as long as they can provide 2m between different groups of people. Try to get as many people working again 

Consult medical experts on likelihood of 2nd wave and make contingency plans

Employ and/or incentivise pharmaceutical companies to develop a vaccine 

Hopefully the government is already doing the last 2 points 

 

Now there is a comprehensive answer!  

I'm not sure that many on here would agree with the visitor thing.  I wonder of there is capacity at airport and nearby hotels to hold people pending the outcome of the arrival tests?

[Van wink 2,994]

I can only assume the tracking app hasn’t proved itself fit for purpose so far?

Track and trace is gearing up and doing a bit more, more shifts becoming available for tier 2.

The big thing is going to be local outbreak control, only now are DPH’s setting up teams to deal with outbreaks and from what I read only in pilot areas. I hope that it’s actually happening all over the country, certainly I can tell you things are gearing up in Norfolk. But why only now?

[nutty nigel 7,509]

6 hours ago, Crafty Canary said:

No, red flora are welcome and red in pictures, book covers etc. I also have red chinos and shorts. 👍👍

Good luck with the golden tickets Crafty...

[ron obvious 1,498]

5 hours ago, sonyc said:

Just the fall off is so slow VW (meaning the associated number of deaths daily is slow to reduce....in my eyes). My main question though related to Iran and a seeming 'second wave' after a relaxation of lockdown. Their numbers of new cases also seemed quite high (today ours was reported at over 1500 ...government's figures) as they approached lockdown. I see reports but yet to see potential reasons.

I wasn't making a political point in the daily UK numbers VW simply using where we are now to where Iran used to be and trying to compare.

 

Ps. In other news vitamin looks  a promising link to survival rates.

Isn't that what you'd expect statistically though? The virus has got the whole (susceptible) population to run through, & being highly contagious it gets to most of them quickly, thus a rapid spike. As the susceptible number left diminishes it gradually peters out. Is that right? Any statisticians out there?

[kick it off 1,948]

 

 

[sonyc 5,489]

41 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

Isn't that what you'd expect statistically though? The virus has got the whole (susceptible) population to run through, & being highly contagious it gets to most of them quickly, thus a rapid spike. As the susceptible number left diminishes it gradually peters out. Is that right? Any statisticians out there?

Perhaps. The long 'tail' off fits the shapes of progression by all countries coming out of the outbreak and your explanation seems reasonable.

Yet, my question really related to how we might compare to Iran, if indeed we might, given the concern expressed in the media about a second UK wave and our relaxing of lockdown with the R rate still quite close to 1 .... Iran appears to be experiencing a second take off and it appears it will have two 'peaks' (and will have an 'M' shaped virus curve). 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-r-rate-england-regional-1-spread-a9551101.html

Another poster I think mentioned that cases are being picked up through our improved testing numbers (presumably some asymptomatic). Yet in the news tonight it was reported that infection rates appear to have dropped greatly (ONS).

Overall, I'm confused. On the one hand there is talk and worry over new break outs and on the other, infection rates appear plummeting (was it 130k to 53k?....and of course death numbers are lagged data).

 

 

[sonyc 5,489]

I may well have just answered my own question. Here is a nice opinion piece sourced from the Francis Crick Institute. It sums up things for me really well, is largely positive (realistic too) but most of all purposive. It raises more questions of immunity, second waves and track/testing but places responsibility on us all...

 

 

Less than 10% of people in Britain are immune to coronavirus. There's no room for mistakes | Coronavirus outbreak | The Guardian

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/05/britons-immune-coronavirus-mistakes-covid-19-spread

 

[Aggy 752]

7 hours ago, sonyc said:

Perhaps. The long 'tail' off fits the shapes of progression by all countries coming out of the outbreak and your explanation seems reasonable.

Yet, my question really related to how we might compare to Iran, if indeed we might, given the concern expressed in the media about a second UK wave and our relaxing of lockdown with the R rate still quite close to 1 .... Iran appears to be experiencing a second take off and it appears it will have two 'peaks' (and will have an 'M' shaped virus curve). 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-r-rate-england-regional-1-spread-a9551101.html

Another poster I think mentioned that cases are being picked up through our improved testing numbers (presumably some asymptomatic). Yet in the news tonight it was reported that infection rates appear to have dropped greatly (ONS).

Overall, I'm confused. On the one hand there is talk and worry over new break outs and on the other, infection rates appear plummeting (was it 130k to 53k?....and of course death numbers are lagged data).

 

 

The deaths in Iran haven’t really changed in line with the new number of infections though. I don’t know when they started their testing regime, is it just that they’re doing more tests? 

In terms of deaths in Iran, the peak in April was apparently 158 deaths a day. For the last month, it’s been around the 50 deaths a day mark - since 7 May, only on two occasions have there been fewer than 40 new deaths and only on an additional three have there been fewer than 50. So in the last month there have been 5 days in total below 50 deaths a day but these were not in a row and were interspersed with c.50, c.60, sometimes even up to 72 deaths a day.

On 25th May in Iran there were 34 new deaths, the lowest it’s been. That was the end of Eid I believe, so is similar to our lowest figures being over bank holidays.
On 28 May there were 63 (gone up), but on 29th it dropped back down again to 50. It rose to 81 on 1 June but dropped to 64, then 70, then 53. So the new “peak” saw an additional c.30 deaths in one day but has, within a day really, got back to where it was before. 

The new infections figures have seemingly risen quite significantly in Iran, but the death rates haven’t (save for what hopefully looks to be one isolated incident increasing deaths by c.30 a day which has dropped down again almost immediately).

Bottom line is, is the infection rate stats still mean very little. We haven’t tested enough people to say how many have had it or not. We don’t know how many people do the tests each day or whether there’s a lag in a laboratory processing the results etc. Etc. The only people getting tested are those who have shown some symptoms - and if you only had a mild cough or sniffle many probably haven’t bothered being tested. So if you’re only testing ill people, we might be seeing higher infection rates than is the truth. Alternatively, as lots of people might have had it but aren’t showing any symptoms, we might be seeing lower infection rates than is the truth. As you say, we’re doing more tests, so number of infections should in theory rise, but they’re dropping. The tests only though tell you if you’ve currently had it so still aren’t helping us really pull together a full picture. There’s also some suggesting the virus might have already weakened, so being infected now might be less deadly than it was three months ago anyway. Lots of things we just don’t know when it comes to the infections.

What we do know - or can know - though is how many are dying from/with it.

[Aggy 752]

Guardian also reported yesterday that almost 30 per cent of live cases in Turkey are asymptomatic. So if 30 percent of the infections they know about are asymptomatic, I think fair to say there will have been a lot more people who had it but were asymptomatic and didn’t get tested.

[Van wink 2,994]

24 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I may well have just answered my own question. Here is a nice opinion piece sourced from the Francis Crick Institute. It sums up things for me really well, is largely positive (realistic too) but most of all purposive. It raises more questions of immunity, second waves and track/testing but places responsibility on us all...

 

 

Less than 10% of people in Britain are immune to coronavirus. There's no room for mistakes | Coronavirus outbreak | The Guardian

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/05/britons-immune-coronavirus-mistakes-covid-19-spread

 

The responsibility has always been on us all, and will continue to be so, irrespective  of clowns at the top of government,  or clowns on message boards, the message always is wash your hands keep your distance wear a mask and keep yourself fit. 

[Aggy 752]

1 minute ago, Van wink said:

The responsibility has always been on us all, and will continue to be so, irrespective  of clowns at the top of government,  or clowns on message boards, the message always is wash your hands keep your distance wear a mask and keep yourself fit. 

Which really is no different to how things have (or should have) always been. If you had “normal” flu, coughed on someone who took it home to their 90 year old mother, the same thing happens. Lots of people are at risk from all sorts of infections which could be stopped/reduced with lockdown/social distancing/washing hands and not coughing on people. 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, Aggy said:

Which really is no different to how things have (or should have) always been. If you had “normal” flu, coughed on someone who took it home to their 90 year old mother, the same thing happens. Lots of people are at risk from all sorts of infections which could be stopped/reduced with lockdown/social distancing/washing hands and not coughing on people. 

Indeed, good old fashioned public health, simple but effective.

[kick it off 1,948]

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52933323