Corona Virus main thread

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

Just now, T said:

Absolutely. So BBC reporting that don’t know when anti body testing will be available in UK. Ho hum

 

Germany already done 60k antibody tests and 3m this month and Spain reckon 5pc of the population infected based on 60000 antibody tests to date. Obviously that figure could be a lot higher in hot spots but does suggest so far no evidence to support herd immunity based on actual reliable testing as opposed to modelling guesses. 

Yes - I actually have a suspicion that generally with pandemics there is a quite natural human response to take precautions, isolate in so far as is possible (otherwise known as panic) even in the absence of government policy.

This is may well lead to a natural slowing or pseudo saturation at around the 20% level (as in hotspots) for this particular disease without any forcing.

[Jim Smith 2,317]

19 minutes ago, T said:

I’m curious what we do with the antibody tests though. I think Germany it will initially be used to help decide on getting front line workers back to work and they are looking at immunity passports. I guess also if you know the level of immunity in a community you can adjust the level of restrictions. Just not fully got my head around what you do as a result of the anti body tests. 

Well the problem at present is surely that although they appear to be able to identify whether people have antibodies, they don't know what level of immunity they provide and until they do then immunity passports are surely a non-starter (not that I am sure they are a great idea anyway given they will create a two tier society).

[......and Smith must score. 1,339]

27 minutes ago, Bill said:

I don't now everything - it just might appear that way compared to you

however you could add to what limited knowledge I do possess by explaining to us all what the difference is between a foreign traveller and a tourist

Get onto Admin City 1st.........your account's been hacked 😀

[T 190]

6 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

Well the problem at present is surely that although they appear to be able to identify whether people have antibodies, they don't know what level of immunity they provide and until they do then immunity passports are surely a non-starter (not that I am sure they are a great idea anyway given they will create a two tier society).

Fully agree and that is one reasons why I’m not sure I know what you do with info. Antigen clear (well at least to me if not UK govt which is still scrambling ) test trace and isolate   

[T 190]

17 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes - I actually have a suspicion that generally with pandemics there is a quite natural human response to take precautions, isolate in so far as is possible (otherwise known as panic) even in the absence of government policy.

This is may well lead to a natural slowing or pseudo saturation at around the 20% level (as in hotspots) for this particular disease without any forcing.

UK has got the panic bit nailed. 

[Van wink 2,994]

9 minutes ago, ......and Smith must score. said:

Get onto Admin City 1st.........your account's been hacked 😀

He thought he was logged on to one of his other accounts

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

2 minutes ago, T said:

Fully agree and that is one reasons why I’m not sure I know what you do with info. Antigen clear (well at least to me if not UK govt which is still scrambling ) test trace and isolate   

There would be of a more immediate use in care and NHS settings - if you've had the disease you would be far less likely (or very unlikely) to have a recurrence in the next 3 months. That  might help.

[Jim Smith 2,317]

6 minutes ago, T said:

Fully agree and that is one reasons why I’m not sure I know what you do with info. Antigen clear (well at least to me if not UK govt which is still scrambling ) test trace and isolate   

I suppose at this stage it at least enables the death rate to be more accurately assessed. If more people have had it that thought then clearly whilst still awful its less fatal than believed and that can be factored into any risk/benefit analysis moving forward.

Alternatively if its more deadly than thought...… 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

On 11/05/2020 at 19:03, T said:

 

Why not try the antibody in New Zealand? They seem to have progressed better than anywhere else.

[T 190]

7 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

There would be of a more immediate use in care and NHS settings - if you've had the disease you would be far less likely (or very unlikely) to have a recurrence in the next 3 months. That  might help.

Yes I think that is probably the plan

[T 190]

Reported today that German researchers based on cell analysis of people flying back from Wuhan with virus have done tests and found a number of substances that stop the virus replicating. Also similar work in US and Canada. Obviously just a first step to potentially developing a treatment but positive that those much maligned experts will get us out of this but it takes time. 

[Barbe bleu 818]

59 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Adding to your link of the study I have I suppose you'd call it a 'third hand' view from my extended part of the family. A relative has to go to a famous London hospital every month for medical treatment and a consultant (very senior in this instance) was strongly of the view that in London that some 25% of the local population has caught the virus. Anecdotal I realise, but it chimes with speaking with friends and colleagues whom many told me that 25% (and more) of their colleagues were off from their workplace during those peak weeks. And in some instances, we are talking very large companies  The antibody tests will show. Perhaps the real figure will be closer to the muted 5%.

The london figures have always been an outlier.  After lockdown the fall from the peak was rapid whereas other regions have shown far less response to the measure despite it, presumably, being much easier to isolate elsewhere and this seems to be borne out in the 0.4, 0.7 and 0.8 figures. Perhaps london is seeing a dividend ftom the high initial infection levels? Maybe though london just got sunnier earlier, who knows

R0 at over at 3 though would be disappointing as 25% is still a bit away from over 66%. 

If we are seeing immunity playing a role then it suggests that a controlled infection strategy wouldn't have been too barmy if we could have achieved appropriate infection control in care homes etc.

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

3 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

If we are seeing immunity playing a role then it suggests that a controlled infection strategy wouldn't have been too barmy if we could have achieved appropriate infection control in care homes etc.

 

I would agree but all the 'hard' evidence so far at the 5 - 15% levels suggests immunity is not playing any significant role - even with our current number of deaths.  

[T 190]

The only hardish evidence I’ve seen is 5pc in Spain which has been hit hard.
 

Germany is putting  concept of immunity passes to ethics committee     didn’t know they had one to be honest but interesting concept as opposed to having the country run by Cummings   Reason  is May be needed to travel to some countries just as you need a yellow fever vaccination certificate for some countries  

EU saying apps should be compatible between countries and date secure which is obvious if people are travelling around so why did UK ignore European app and develop its own without a secure data concept unless idea is UK citizens won’t be allowed to travel.  Not that UK visitors will be allowed anyway unless UK govt gets a grip on the virus. 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Update about the Oxford vaccine , but the headline comment about “all we need is approval to manufacture” seems much too optimistic given it also says it will be mid June earliest before they have evidence as to how effective it is.

 

Basically there are 1,000+ people in the study, half being the control group, so we now wait for some of them to get infected and if the vaccine group are not infected , there you go... it’s just a case of waiting long enough for the results to be statistically significant enough. I assume no vaccine is 100% effective though but thinking about it, even if the vaccine is say 90% effective that would probably be enough to push the R number right down and achieve herd immunity?

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-vaccine-breakthrough-could-made-22025785

[sonyc 5,508]

17 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Update about the Oxford vaccine , but the headline comment about “all we need is approval to manufacture” seems much too optimistic given it also says it will be mid June earliest before they have evidence as to how effective it is.

 

Basically there are 1,000+ people in the study, half being the control group, so we now wait for some of them to get infected and if the vaccine group are not infected , there you go... it’s just a case of waiting long enough for the results to be statistically significant enough. I assume no vaccine is 100% effective though but thinking about it, even if the vaccine is say 90% effective that would probably be enough to push the R number right down and achieve herd immunity?

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-vaccine-breakthrough-could-made-22025785

I had heard on radio too that they would know by mid June. I'm pleased they got over a 1000. When asked they felt even a minimum of 30 (!) was a sample that could be worked on for proving effectiveness. This was in answer to a journalist's question. 4 more weeks then to find out.

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

I had heard on radio too that they would know by mid June. I'm pleased they got over a 1000. When asked they felt even a minimum of 30 (!) was a sample that could be worked on for proving effectiveness. This was in answer to a journalist's question. 4 more weeks then to find out.

Hold your horses - there are also safety issues to resolve like all vaccines (this is not an anti-vax argument) just that we must make sure its safe or has very limited side effects as well!

[T 190]

Absolutely no guarantees but the fact that over 80 vaccine candidates are being worked on around the world together with treatment progress does support the CMO that there are no guarantees but he does expect science in to come up with a solution. We haven’t experienced such a virus in our lifetimes. But the human race has never experienced such an intense global effort to develop treatments and vaccines. 

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

First of the season, caught on ultra lightweight gear under the shade of oak trees that have their roots in salt water!!!  They're gonna be deeeeerishusss!!!!

[sonyc 5,508]

36 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Hold your horses - there are also safety issues to resolve like all vaccines (this is not an anti-vax argument) just that we must make sure its safe or has very limited side effects as well!

She meant when the study would offer data on effectiveness that was all YF

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, T said:

Fully agree and that is one reasons why I’m not sure I know what you do with info. 

The level of community infection is very valuable information when you are modelling the progress of the disease and how you adjust the interventions.

[Barbe bleu 818]

.

Edited May 14, 2020 by Barbe bleu
Ignore. The answer is in tha article

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

Just saw the ONS random study  - about 0.27% have CV over last 2 weeks.

I can make a quick rough estimate from that.

Assume all 0.27% (let's call it 0.3%) have / clear CV over 2 weeks.

From March to now that's about 12 weeks max @ 0.3% per fortnight.

6 x 0.3  is circa 2% have had disease. Add in a factor of 2 of for now dropping/ past-peak - say 4% 

Only a rough'n'ready guesstimate I know but definitely not the herd immunity numbers. 4 - 5% looks a good guess as per elsewhere.

Antibody tests to prove.

[sonyc 5,508]

23 hours ago, wcorkcanary said:

Saving Marina for a quiet moment later in the day, maybe a glass of vino and canapes for our little tete a tete.  

@wcorkcanary this was tweeted earlier today and I felt you might enjoy with your canapes (or mackerel!)

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

Hmmm Uma and Marina ... that calls for Mackerel Canapes!!!

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

Mackerel  canape...fresh , less than 2 hrs sea to plate  yum yum , now where are uma  and Marina?

[TIL 1010 4,737]

3 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

British tourists are NOT allowed in. The rules you quote are not for tourists.

Odd that somebody who knows everything didn't know that.

West Runton would be a hell of a way for me to go, I live in Portchester, just outside Portsmouth.

Bloque 3, Apartamento 1B42, Hacienda La Puebla, La Puebla, Murcia, 30395 is my Spanish address, please feel free to google it.

 

 

"

You obviously have not listened to one word of the advice given to you, not one word.

[Van wink 2,994]

32 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Just saw the ONS random study  - about 0.27% have CV over last 2 weeks.

I can make a quick rough estimate from that.

Assume all 0.27% (let's call it 0.3%) have / clear CV over 2 weeks.

From March to now that's about 12 weeks max @ 0.3% per fortnight.

6 x 0.3  is circa 2% have had disease. Add in a factor of 2 of for now dropping/ past-peak - say 4% 

Only a rough'n'ready guesstimate I know but definitely not the herd immunity numbers. 4 - 5% looks a good guess as per elsewhere.

Antibody tests to prove.

There’s going to be significant regional variation, London in particular.

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

 

If we are seeing immunity playing a role then it suggests that a controlled infection strategy wouldn't have been too barmy if we could have achieved appropriate infection control in care homes etc.

 

It may still be a factor when the second and third waves come. 

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

13 minutes ago, Van wink said:

There’s going to be significant regional variation, London in particular.

The 0.27 was the population as a whole - hence the 4% is also.

Actually I suspect I've overestimated but it's only to ground test the hypothesis - see if it stacks up. It does.  It's not 25%.

I suspect Whitty did a similar calculation!

Edited May 14, 2020 by Yellow Fever
simplified