Corona Virus main thread

[Surfer 1,547]

29 minutes ago, Herman said:

It's a bit late to realise the country needs manufacturing. It has been weakened or moved abroad for decades and it is only going to get worse under the Minford plan. 

Yeah, it's funny to hear the righties complaining about the loss of manufacturing and local supply chains... pot meet kettle methinks. 

[The Real Buh 3,432]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

It's a bit late to realise the country needs manufacturing. It has been weakened or moved abroad for decades and it is only going to get worse under the Minford plan. 

It’s a disgrace basically. We need mass re-industrialisation and we need to actually value manufacturing as a career. 

Ive always said “making things is the only way to generate real wealth” that stuff they do in the city with computers, it’s not real.

[The Real Buh 3,432]

43 minutes ago, Surfer said:

Yeah, it's funny to hear the righties complaining about the loss of manufacturing and local supply chains... pot meet kettle methinks. 

Labour or the tories aren’t interested in manufacturing and haven’t been in decades mate so pull the other one. They are both as bad as each other.

[Bill 1,788]

Another damning view of the clueless slug, supposedly in charge of things

"Opinion writers from Italy to Australia attack ‘stupidity’ and label Boris Johnson incompetent

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/06/complacent-uk-draws-global-criticism-for-covid-19-response-boris-johnson

and with one in every eight deaths worldwide being in the UK the time for making excuses has long gone - this has been a catalogue of failures, that has continued up to the present day with ALL the PPE equipment from that flight from Turkey having to sent back, with the claim that Friday's testing figures were fiddled backed by the dramatic fall in numbers every day since

half of doctors report having to buy their own PPE equipment, and medical students are being charged for study when they are working full time to cover the acute staff shortages - and most sickening of all, migrant health workers are being charged to access............................ medical treatment

only in the warped ideological mindset of the right could this come about..... and be defended

[Aggy 753]

8 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Excuse me if I appear stupid. A graph used during the briefing today showed over 6000 new infections. Whether some were last Friday or not doesn't to me appear to matter. I have been led to believe that if you had the virus, you could infect someone else.

I am not concerned about how good it is that you have it and are not going to die.

It concerns me that the daily infection rate in and outside hospital was as high as early April.

If I am wrong please correct me.

We don’t know if you are wrong because we weren’t doing 60,000 (or more) tests a day in early April. The anecdotal evidence of how many people were actually feeling unwell, the stats which show the large majority of people who get it don’t go to hospital so won’t have been tested and common sense suggest there were far more people in early April who had coronavirus than the official stats say but we don’t know how many. So almost certainly you are wrong, yes.

Going back to my bubonic plague example, I could find (if I looked hard enough) somebody with bubonic plague in the world right now and test them. It doesn’t mean there are more people with bubonic plague now than there was in 1350 just because we didn’t do any tests and post official government stats on the internet in 1350.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

A while back @dylanisabaddog posted a link to a self-reporting Covid 19 app which I and my family have been using every day since (good one!).  The app now has about 3m users who are asked to self-report on their health status daily and whether or not they've had a Covid test etc.

 

The app then projects number of infections across the UK based on this data (I don't know how it deals with people who are asymptomless and it's self-reporting so clearly not perfect, but equally it's a source of information from a lot of people on a daily basis).

 

According to this app, the virus infections peaked at the start of April at approx. 2.1m active cases nationally.  Yesterday it was projecting there were 280,000 or so active cases nationally.  At R of 0.7, those 280,000 will infect a further 196,000 over the course of their infections and so on.

 

So clearly these are incredibly approximate numbers, but it looks to me like they give us a reasonable idea of roughly where we are with this first peak of the virus.

[Jim Smith 2,317]

8 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

But wasn't it stated at the beginning of the lockdown that the reason for lockdown was to prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed. If this is still the main criterion, and I'm not aware of any change, then it will be still preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed that will decide the levels of relaxation of isolation rules?

Since hospitals are now in a much more favourable state of coping it could be that number of deaths are allowed to rise so long as hospitals can manage the workload. 

Yes although personally i'm uneasy about that being the key aim. Surely it should be to absolutely minimise the number of people who die from this. The last few weeks have shown that the NHS can "cope" (numbers/capacity wise) with hundreds of people being admitted and hundreds of people passing away every day but that to me should not be the aim. It should be to prevent anyone from dying needlessly from this illness, not making sure we keep fatalities at 400-500 a day.

[Aggy 753]

6 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

Yes although personally i'm uneasy about that being the key aim. Surely it should be to absolutely minimise the number of people who die from this. The last few weeks have shown that the NHS can "cope" (numbers/capacity wise) with hundreds of people being admitted and hundreds of people passing away every day but that to me should not be the aim. It should be to prevent anyone from dying needlessly from this illness, not making sure we keep fatalities at 400-500 a day.

If we locked the country down to minimise the number of ‘needless’ deaths from everything we’d never be allowed out. Ban driving, lockdown every flu season for eight months etc.

Edit: clicked post early but wanted to say in addition that the aim has always and should always be to ensure we have medical capacity to give everyone the best chance possible - ie making sure hospitals aren’t too crowded to treat people.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Aggy

[Aggy 753]

10 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

A while back @dylanisabaddog posted a link to a self-reporting Covid 19 app which I and my family have been using every day since (good one!).  The app now has about 3m users who are asked to self-report on their health status daily and whether or not they've had a Covid test etc.

 

The app then projects number of infections across the UK based on this data (I don't know how it deals with people who are asymptomless and it's self-reporting so clearly not perfect, but equally it's a source of information from a lot of people on a daily basis).

 

According to this app, the virus infections peaked at the start of April at approx. 2.1m active cases nationally.  Yesterday it was projecting there were 280,000 or so active cases nationally.  At R of 0.7, those 280,000 will infect a further 196,000 over the course of their infections and so on.

 

So clearly these are incredibly approximate numbers, but it looks to me like they give us a reasonable idea of roughly where we are with this first peak of the virus.

Interesting stats/predictions icf. Does it give you an overall number of people it thinks have had it since the app started? (Ie active and recovered?)

Edited May 7, 2020 by Aggy

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

1 minute ago, Aggy said:

Interesting stats/predictions icf. Does it give you an overall number of people it thinks have had it since the app started? (Ie active and recovered?)

Good question Aggy, unfortunately I can't find that info on it.  I'll bump the original thread, if anyone can find that info it would be really interesting !

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

2 hours ago, Surfer said:

Yeah, it's funny to hear the righties complaining about the loss of manufacturing and local supply chains... pot meet kettle methinks. 

Yes - A distinct lack of any joined up thinking.

Whether we like it or not China will be the dominant economy this century - it's just a question of scale and numbers. As little old UK to borrow a phrase about HK we will be pimple on their nose (about the size of any two of 7 or 8 major 'alpha' Chinese cities - we won't even bother to go with the many 'beta' ones - London size). When they say jump we will simply have to ask how high.

And in that lies the political reasoning for the EU (whch is still the worlds richest market) - as a viable counterweight with our values and input to such economic blocks.

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

Is it me or has Johnson made another inept Boris Bumble - a clanger.

Why Oh why hint to everybody about a relaxation of the lockdown rules on Monday (the papers already running away with 'don't' stay at home etc) just before a hot bank holiday weekend ?

I expect loads will venture out , to the coast..... mixed messaging.

Total madness. Inept. Unconscionable. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Terminally Yellow 2,448]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-norwich-death-rates-ons-lowest-highest-a9500106.html

An interesting article. Will Norwich's good fortune so far come at a cost later on? 

[Mark .Y. 352]

58 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Is it me or has Johnson made another inept Boris Bumble - a clanger.

Why Oh why hint to everybody about a relaxation of the lockdown rules on Monday (the papers already running away with 'don't' stay at home etc) just before a hot bank holiday weekend ?

I expect loads will venture out , to the coast..... mixed messaging.

Total madness. Inept. Unconscionable. 

I'm not so sure it is a clanger as such.

I think it is what is going to be announced, I suspect they know a lot of it is likely to happen any way so will announce that it will be permitted but maintain social distancing.

[ricardo 7,381]

10 hours ago, Bill said:

hooray for Norwich

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-norwich-death-rates-ons-lowest-highest-a9500106.html

 

 

Exellent news, I may go further than the recycle bins next week👍

[ricardo 7,381]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Is it me or has Johnson made another inept Boris Bumble - a clanger.

Why Oh why hint to everybody about a relaxation of the lockdown rules on Monday (the papers already running away with 'don't' stay at home etc) just before a hot bank holiday weekend ?

I expect loads will venture out , to the coast..... mixed messaging.

Total madness. Inept. Unconscionable. 

Great news that its going to be a bit on the parky side this weekend. Unusually cold and windy for the time of year.

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

7 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

I'm not so sure it is a clanger as such.

I think it is what is going to be announced, I suspect they know a lot of it is likely to happen any way so will announce that it will be permitted but maintain social distancing.

I think you've answered my/your on question.

Clanger.

If what you say is true he is not leading but being led.

Better then to announce the 'relaxation today' in time for Friday or not at all.

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Great news that its going to be a bit on the parky side this weekend. Unusually cold and windy for the time of year.

Sunday looks bad but not Friday or Saturday.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

If we locked the country down to minimise the number of ‘needless’ deaths from everything we’d never be allowed out. Ban driving, lockdown every flu season for eight months etc.

Edit: clicked post early but wanted to say in addition that the aim has always and should always be to ensure we have medical capacity to give everyone the best chance possible - ie making sure hospitals aren’t too crowded to treat people.

But we do have evidence of normal annual flu outbreaks, not epidemics, to fall back on. One of my worries with this virus is that by all accounts so many of us have probably had it but had mild symptoms. When winter comes to us in 6 months, I am worried how our systems will react. Have our bodies been damaged? Is this virus, a protein, embedded in our system?

Until that period has been negotiated without alarm, then I see no reason to pretend normality is just around the corner.

And I am concerned there seems to be an increased opinion, backed up by stats, that the majority of people dying are older. I find it pretty disgusting that there are many who are prepared to let older people die to satisfy their finacial worries.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Great news that its going to be a bit on the parky side this weekend. Unusually cold and windy for the time of year.

We are having a VE Day celebration in our garden. Mrs KG and I. Well we still have our ration books so have a connection of sorts. We will be playing Vera Lynn, Glenn Miller music and rationing the food on the barbie. We will need coupons.

It is such a shame that the last significant date to remember before all the people have passed on, is having to be enjoyed this way. Dad fought in the war and Mum worked at the American Red Cross. Both are buried in Norwich and my Brother died five years ago so there is no-one to pop up the cemetery to say thank you to them.

So I will have to toast them down here and remember the good times.

[Barbe bleu 818]

13 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think you've answered my/your on question.

Clanger.

If what you say is true he is not leading but being led.

Better then to announce the 'relaxation today' in time for Friday or not at all.

If the government are hinting privately this way perhaps its  because they want to spread the expected 'surge'?  

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

If the government are hinting privately this way perhaps its  because they want to spread the expected 'surge'?  

I think that clutching at straws BB. 🙂

Occam's razor shouts clanger.

[Herman 9,746]

1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

If the government are hinting privately this way perhaps its  because they want to spread the expected 'surge'?  

I think they are more interested in the economy. Money, money, money. 

[Mark .Y. 352]

46 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think you've answered my/your on question.

Clanger.

If what you say is true he is not leading but being led.

Better then to announce the 'relaxation today' in time for Friday or not at all.

I don't think he has much choice, short of making the Police Force's job untenable -  it is all he can do.

You only have to go out and about to see how many more people are around now, it has massively increased in my area.

Why not today ?? ............I don't know, maybe he wants to leave it as late as possible just in case he was presented with data late-on that advised him not to do it. 

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

3 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

I don't think he has much choice, short of making the Police Force's job untenable -  it is all he can do.

You only have to go out and about to see how many more people are around now, it has massively increased in my area.

Why not today ?? ............I don't know, maybe he wants to leave it as late as possible just in case he was presented with data late-on that advised him not to do it. 

Sorry Mark it was a typical Johnson gaff,  a clanger,  a throw-away remark that he hadn't thought through because he thought it sounded good at the time.

In some ways it's rather reminiscent of the Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe 'journalist' comment as FS. Not thought through. 

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

2 hours ago, Jim Smith said:

Yes although personally i'm uneasy about that being the key aim. Surely it should be to absolutely minimise the number of people who die from this. The last few weeks have shown that the NHS can "cope" (numbers/capacity wise) with hundreds of people being admitted and hundreds of people passing away every day but that to me should not be the aim. It should be to prevent anyone from dying needlessly from this illness, not making sure we keep fatalities at 400-500 a day.

That's a very understandable and humane position, Jim. I think most people would like to think our main aim is to keep the number of fatalities down to an absolute minimum, but I suspect that isn't the number one priority if we look at the actions that the government have taken - or failed to take for that matter. So many examples to choose from, but to select a couple - if one suspects one has the virus then current advice is just to stay at home. A policy that put lives saved as first policy would have a system whereby suspect cases are immediately tested and some medical care given. The reality is that one is statistically unlikely to be tested and be offered no medical care other than to be told to sit it out in isolation and see what happens. Secondly, one is very unlikely to be admitted to hospital until one is in a critical condition, and then only admitted if there is a statistical likelihood that you could survive. Then there is the appalling situation in care homes where very limited protection is given to the most vulnerable people and then allowed to die in solitary confinement.

I can't help but feel this is deliberate policy to leave the most vulnerable to take their chances and we'll now see a relaxation in lockdown measures even though deaths are still at high levels, because fatalities are occurring mainly in the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. We have a high rate of deaths in the UK not so much because we're doing the wrong things but because those making the decisions are allowing it to happen. Remember the slogan from the outset - 'Protect the NHS', in my opinion, that's still the driving factor and I think that's coming from the medical experts on the Sage committee.

[Aggy 753]

41 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

But we do have evidence of normal annual flu outbreaks, not epidemics, to fall back on. One of my worries with this virus is that by all accounts so many of us have probably had it but had mild symptoms. When winter comes to us in 6 months, I am worried how our systems will react. Have our bodies been damaged? Is this virus, a protein, embedded in our system?

Until that period has been negotiated without alarm, then I see no reason to pretend normality is just around the corner.

And I am concerned there seems to be an increased opinion, backed up by stats, that the majority of people dying are older. I find it pretty disgusting that there are many who are prepared to let older people die to satisfy their finacial worries.

Anything could happen in six months - a whole new outbreak of something completely different. We can’t have perpetual lockdown “just in case”. 

As for the current coronavirus, I don’t think anyone expects us to be back to complete normality this year, or probably even for most of next. What is normal will probably change - even in a few years time I expect restaurants will have more space between tables, there’ll be glass protective screens in front of cashiers etc.

It’s not about being prepared to let older people die to satisfy their financial worries. The average age of people dying is 80 (or 82, I still haven’t checked and can’t remember). People aged 82 do die - see previous discussion on excess deaths. Of course we should try to avoid/minimise deaths and extend life. But at the same time, if we don’t sort out the economy there are going to be many more deaths caused by poverty and lack of funding of essential public sector bodies and charities. Nearly half the working population is currently on the furlough scheme or benefits. Others have no income and arent/can’t claim benefits whilst many of those in employment are on reduced salaries. The government has said it can’t keep the furlough scheme going indefinitely. So what are those people going to do after that? Starve to death? Or we would have to pay them all benefits - reducing amounts available to go the NHS and other infrastructure which again will lead to further deaths.

On the basis lockdown for extended period of time will lead to more deaths anyway (In younger and older generations when public sector health funding collapses at the expense of just paying people enough for them to actually afford food), why is it okay for us to continue a lockdown which will lead to more deaths across the board when the main risk of death currently is to people aged on average 80? 

There is no simple answer but this idea that it’s “disgusting” to focus on the economy is extremely short sighted. Many many more will die if we don’t get the economy sorted - which involves some loosening of restrictions.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

It's got to be a balance IMO.  The reality is the lockdown measures are costing lives too.  And if left in place too long, support for them will be reduced - they can only work by consent.

 

We need to look at a gradual relaxation while also paying close attention to countries abroad that are ahead of us in the curve.  The aim is to relax lockdown gradually while keeping the R number below 1 (meaning the virus levels in the population will continue to decline) and making sure the NHS can continue to cope with the numbers who are ill in the meantime.

 

There are no easy answers here, anyone who things it's straightforward, or a simple case of prioritising the economy over lives, is just being simplistic IMO.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Also I think the message has got out that although most people with Covid are older, there are still plenty of younger people getting seriously ill with it.  And most of us have older relatives or people with health conditions that put them into the high-risk category.  Yes, there are some selfish and stupid people who are not taking it as seriously as they should, but mostly I'm impressed with how well people are following the social distancing rules.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

There is no simple answer but this idea that it’s “disgusting” to focus on the economy is extremely short sighted. Many many more will die if we don’t get the economy sorted - which involves some loosening of restrictions.

I am of the opinion that the prospect of people dying because of the economy is not proven. I do realise the economy plays the major part of most peoples lives. And a weak economy will cause some health problems especially for the poor.

But the BoE is forecasting a greater surge next year after a depression this. 14% down this year but 15% up next. And bearing that in mind, I don't think another three weeks in lockdown is going to cause too many mental health problems. I have always been a person to go the extra yard to make sure rather than just in time.