Corona Virus main thread

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

I don't think we are going to follow South Koreas model VW.

I don't think there is any intention to check individuals credit card statements for a start.

No not credit cards Mark, but the principle

[Mark .Y. 352]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

It's a good point and I wish we'd hear more on the news about actions other countries are actually taking.  E.g. when I see news about Spain relaxing their restrictions by letting people go outside, they seemed to still be more restricted than us because different age groups can only go out at set times of day so older people will be the only ones out at a given time.

They have certainly done it in what appears to be quite a strange way eg not allowing their children out for exercise for weeks.

However, they restarted construction and manufacturing some 3 weeks ago now, with some distancing/face masking precautions, and that does not appear to have altered the downward trajectory of their cases/deaths numbers, so I would suggest that this gives our Government some proper evidence to look at and inform decisions on our release strategy.

I guess what I am a little concerned about it that everybody seems to be quoting the test/track/trace mantra because that is what some of the experts are saying (including the WHO), but I don't think it has been proven at the point of easing restrictions. It certainly seems to work when you are getting your first cases - if you can work it well then, you absolutely do seem to supress the numbers which allows you to keep control but as I mentioned in an earlier reply - what if the virus naturally weakens over time and the R number would fall anyway ?     

Again, I reiterate, that I'm not against the T/T/I approach, even if it only had a very small effect, I can understand why you would want to try it, I just remain unconvinced at the moment.

[Crafty Canary 495]

51 minutes ago, T said:

That argument is based on your political bias though 😉  The poor preparation isn’t going to change. The people that have died aren’t going to come back to life. That argument is a tacit admission of the UK failure to plan as it really does not look good now. Doesn’t mean U.K. is alone in failing to prepare as France admits or that it isn’t trying to do the right things now. 

What a lot of ‘expert’ tosh. I’ll wait for coherent, peer reviewed data thanks but then I am a scientist.

[Herman 9,756]

14 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Seems like "the Science" that the government have been "following" had finally had enough of SAGE giving air cover to the inept and medacious Coronavirus response and have set up an independent advisory group. Marvellous piece of public service that will make the apologists apopletic.

Sir David King isn't holding back his ire. Fair play. 

[Crafty Canary 495]

45 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Christ on a bike reading through the last six pages has been beyond hard work.

I'm with you on that one Tilly. Digesting raw data from other nations is far removed from my life in Cornwall. Mrs KG and I broke the lockdown rules by walking 7.5 miles this morning. But if I said we saw 6 people until we got near home I could be exaggerating.

I think if there is easing of lockdown and the message is still "we are in this together" then we might as well all pack up and go and live in London. Sometimes when they do maps on TV, west Cornwall doesn't even appear.

Walking 7.5 miles doesn’t break lockdown rules as long as you maintain social distancing. Mrs Crafty and I are averaging 7.5 km a day and what a pleasure it is to see nature in its Spring glory and to see deep blue skies and hear the birds’ chorus.

[The Bristol Nest 513]

Are you The Scientist? 

You know,  the one with The Science...

 

[BigFish 1,986]

3 minutes ago, Crafty Canary said:

What a lot of ‘expert’ tosh. I’ll wait for coherent, peer reviewed data thanks but then I am a scientist.

This needs a judge led public enquiry to forensicly examine how this has been handled and what lessons can be learnt.........BUT we also need action now. That is why scientists are starting to take matters into their own hands https://www.pscp.tv/w/1RDGlQrbLddJL

[Mark .Y. 352]

13 minutes ago, Van wink said:

No not credit cards Mark, but the principle

Well, the thing is VW, I would say you either follow the model completely or you're not really following the same model.

I can clearly see that there was a massive test and trace effort at the beginning of their epidemic but haven't found anything about it being so widely used as they are exiting restrictions. Clearly the capability is there but I've seen no news about it being used.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

It looks like some of the so reliable science maybe have been concocted by Sir Stanley Unwin and Magnus Pyke.

[Mark .Y. 352]

32 minutes ago, Van wink said:

No not credit cards Mark, but the principle

Just a follow up here VW, as found a chart of number of tests being conducted by S. Korea.

At the moment, the most is around 7-8,000 tests a day, the last couple of days have been 3-4,000.

Obviously they are much better at the trace and isolate than most but the test, test, test mantra is not being followed there at the moment and never was in the numbers that we are doing. I suspect that the reason they have done so well is that they got going quickly and are very good at the trace and isolate thing. We would never have that level here as inspection of credit card statements, CCTV camera usage etc would cause outrage.

Another potential addition to help is that they have very low obesity levels, I have seen many statements linking obesity to worse suffering from the virus.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102818/south-korea-covid-19-test-total-number/

Edited May 4, 2020 by Mark .Y.
Forgot the link

[Aggy 755]

I think obviously a track and trace system will help. I don’t think it’s anywhere near the most important element though. If we just completely lifted all restrictions and relied on tracking and tracing, it would balloon out of control almost immediately.

If half the population doesn’t use the app, then yes it will still be of assistance in respect of those who do, but it won’t be much use for any contacts between people who haven’t got the app (many of whom are likely to be the ones most at risk - the elderly who are less likely to use smart phones etc.).

If the fifteen minute contact in one place thing is true, again, I think the track and trace app has limited utility. If I shook hands with someone coughed in their face and walked off they’d presumably be just as likely to catch it off me than if I stood next to them for fifteen minutes. So yes the track and trace idea will help, but it has to be one of many things - and I don’t expect it to be the most important. 

[Yellow Fever 3,776]

49 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Ha, I know what you mean............ but what if it mutates and becomes weaker after a while ?

I mean, don't all pandemics end at some stage, even if a vaccine hasn't been found ??

 

I suspect as with all such viruses they mutate and by natural selection generally become more infectious & less lethal - never a good strategy to kill or incapacitate your host -  they don't spread you around very easily then.

Add to that increasing 'herd' immunity and dare I say some genetic selections (c.f. the medieval plagues) and they eventually become endemic and nasty but only catch you out when they mutate into a particularly nasty version for a 'season' i.e. flu.

If I was being particularly philosophical and morose I could just take the view that Gaia has decided it's time to restore some balance as we were overrunning the planet - lots of opportunity for an entrepreneurial virus! All such populations that have such explosive growth eventually suffer similar issues-  rabbits, deer etc.

[BigFish 1,986]

17 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I think obviously a track and trace system will help. I don’t think it’s anywhere near the most important element though. If we just completely lifted all restrictions and relied on tracking and tracing, it would balloon out of control almost immediately.

If half the population doesn’t use the app, then yes it will still be of assistance in respect of those who do, but it won’t be much use for any contacts between people who haven’t got the app (many of whom are likely to be the ones most at risk - the elderly who are less likely to use smart phones etc.).

If the fifteen minute contact in one place thing is true, again, I think the track and trace app has limited utility. If I shook hands with someone coughed in their face and walked off they’d presumably be just as likely to catch it off me than if I stood next to them for fifteen minutes. So yes the track and trace idea will help, but it has to be one of many things - and I don’t expect it to be the most important. 

The app is a gimic to allow the government to appear as if positive action is being taken. The thing is it is easy and cheap, it uses existing technology and can be knocked up in a couple of weeks by a roomful of techies. Then it is available, the government can blame the public if they don't download and us it. Lovely.

But without rich data it is next to useless. There is no follow through on how users will react if they are notified they have had contact. There is no validation, it relies on self reporting. For privacy reasons the lack of personal identification is being played up, so it doesn't give information of who has done what, when or where.

The UK needs a proper contact tracing system, and it needs it now. What is more it needs to be proactive, driving action through the system rather than a passive recording method.

[T 190]

as usual some people want to simply dismiss 28k deaths as it makes there political views look very petty and misguided. There racist views on immigrants are also being exposed for the nonsense they always were. And as ever they have no substantial argument so they dismiss experts and are just abusive. That is the hard right racists for you and why they are seen as the greatest source of disinformation and a risk to society.
 

Typical Trump hard right tactics dismiss deny abuse and attack foreigners as they don’t have any substantial arguments to back up their perverted views of the world. I’m afraid this has been a disaster for the hard right. We have never seen such socialist policies and the importance of public services and immigrants has never been so clear. They better gets used to accepting that their view of the world has been brutally exposed and their messiah is really a one nation Tory. 

[T 190]

The German app is decentralised to increase acceptance and you need an official testing code to transmit tests. The Germans are taking their time but doing a lot of work and consulatarion to get it right so it is useful. 

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

9 minutes ago, T said:

as usual some people want to simply dismiss 28k deaths as it makes there political views look very petty and misguided. There racist views on immigrants are also being exposed for the nonsense they always were. And as ever they have no substantial argument so they dismiss experts and are just abusive. That is the hard right racists for you and why they are seen as the greatest source of disinformation and a risk to society.
 

Typical Trump hard right tactics dismiss deny abuse and attack foreigners as they don’t have any substantial arguments to back up their perverted views of the world. I’m afraid this has been a disaster for the hard right. We have never seen such socialist policies and the importance of public services and immigrants has never been so clear. They better gets used to accepting that their view of the world has been brutally exposed and their messiah is really a one nation Tory. 

Why are people like you insisting on politicising a pandemic and playing the left vs right thing. 

Sweden took the gamble of making lowdown partially optional, and they have a centre-left government. Germany meanwhile getting praised everywhere for their response with their centre-right chancellor. 

[T 190]

Because it is political. Political decisions have an impact. The UK has done poorly as a result of political decisions.  People have died as a result of the political decision to ignore expert advice and Focus emergency planning resources on Brexit rather than pandemic preparation 

 

i have absolutely no problem with the mainstream right or left at all. I’m not that political but what we have on here is some hard right extremist racists posting on here and using social media to spread disinformation to support their perverted views of the world. I happen to think that racism should not be accepted and  stood up to and exposed for the nonsense it it is. If you disagree with me that hard right racism is wrong then that is your view but not mine. 

[T 190]

Germany has a centre right centre left cooalrion.   Sweden has centre left no problem with mainstream policies whatsoever only extremists 

[Barbe bleu 823]

39 minutes ago, BigFish said:

The app is a gimic to allow the government to appear as if positive action is being taken. The thing is it is easy and cheap, it uses existing technology and can be knocked up in a couple of weeks by a roomful of techies. Then it is available, the government can blame the public if they don't download and us it. Lovely.

But without rich data it is next to useless. There is no follow through on how users will react if they are notified they have had contact. There is no validation, it relies on self reporting. For privacy reasons the lack of personal identification is being played up, so it doesn't give information of who has done what, when or where.

The UK needs a proper contact tracing system, and it needs it now. What is more it needs to be proactive, driving action through the system rather than a passive recording method.

Gimmick  is a harsh word.  I see an app as one tool among many. It is my no means the only tool we need but, used correctly, I cant see a problem.

 

[Aggy 755]

1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

Gimmick  is a harsh word.  I see an app as one tool among many. It is my no means the only tool we need but, used correctly, I cant see a problem.

 

Would tend to agree.

Would say though I think Bf’s point about follow through is particularly valid. Unless advice has moved on (which it most likely has to be fair), I understood you wouldn’t show symptoms for a few days. If people get a notification saying someone they were close to four days ago has tested positive, but they aren’t showing any symptoms themselves, my guess would be that quite a few would just crack on and ignore it. 

[Yellow Fever 3,776]

1 minute ago, Aggy said:

Would tend to agree.

Would say though I think Bf’s point about follow through is particularly valid. Unless advice has moved on (which it most likely has to be fair), I understood you wouldn’t show symptoms for a few days. If people get a notification saying someone they were close to four days ago has tested positive, but they aren’t showing any symptoms themselves, my guess would be that quite a few would just crack on and ignore it. 

I think you highlight the issues = you get flagged as having briefly met/passed a carrier say in a supermarket queue. You probably can't remember the 'contact'

If you have no symptoms I suspect nearly everybody despite their best intentions will just carry on. 

[Barbe bleu 823]

I am a little more hopeful.  I dont think an app would stop any one with contact but no symptoms from doing what they had to do but some of the less important social activities might be stopped until testing is carried out, if it is rapid. 

The worst case scenario might be if just having the app gives people an odd sense of security and actually subconsciously  encourages them to enter the mixing pot.

 

 

[T 190]

Germany has ordered 3m anti body tests to assess spread and help decide on lifting restrictions. They have been shown to be 99.8 pc effective so that has to be positive news  

They are increasing antigen testing capacity to 860K a week so can also test people with minor symptoms. 
 

1700 football players and staff have been tested and  only 10 positive who are being isolated. I think is shows the limited level of spread and that with extensive testing you can significantly get this under control. 
 

So hopefully some positive signs this can be brought under control 
 

 

[ricardo 7,385]

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

25 minutes ago, T said:

Because it is political. Political decisions have an impact. The UK has done poorly as a result of political decisions.  People have died as a result of the political decision to ignore expert advice and Focus emergency planning resources on Brexit rather than pandemic preparation 

 

i have absolutely no problem with the mainstream right or left at all. I’m not that political but what we have on here is some hard right extremist racists posting on here and using social media to spread disinformation to support their perverted views of the world. I happen to think that racism should not be accepted and  stood up to and exposed for the nonsense it it is. If you disagree with me that hard right racism is wrong then that is your view but not mine. 

I have no idea what racism has to do with coronavirus so I'll assume you are having some sort of conversation I'm not involved in, and I'll opt out of joining in.

But I'll ask you a question, are you against Trident renewal? I'll assume so, as most people on the left are. 

Because if the government is expected to be prepared for every possible eventuality, and lets say for arguments sake we weren't very well prepared for a 1918 Spanish Flu type event, and lets for argument sake blame the government of the last 10 years. 

If the world finds itself in another cold war situation between the USA and Russia/China, are you going to praising this government for ensuring that we have the foresight to ensure that we, along with France, are able to offer our own deterrent and protect the continent?

I'd guess you are not, and that's the hypocrisy of the left. 

[T 190]

I am sorry I think you are missing my point.  My work is hard core capitalist. I  am really not left wing at all ! I can understand their values but while I would like to see no nuclear weapons but always supported. a nuclear deterrent. My issue is with any extremist ideologies and racism which of course the underlying background to the ideologies of some. 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Mark .Y. said:

Just a follow up here VW, as found a chart of number of tests being conducted by S. Korea.

At the moment, the most is around 7-8,000 tests a day, the last couple of days have been 3-4,000.

Obviously they are much better at the trace and isolate than most but the test, test, test mantra is not being followed there at the moment and never was in the numbers that we are doing. I suspect that the reason they have done so well is that they got going quickly and are very good at the trace and isolate thing. We would never have that level here as inspection of credit card statements, CCTV camera usage etc would cause outrage.

Another potential addition to help is that they have very low obesity levels, I have seen many statements linking obesity to worse suffering from the virus.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102818/south-korea-covid-19-test-total-number/

Yes the testing has reduced as the number of active cases has come down. Definitely the comorbidity is a big issue with this and as you say obesity is a massive problem here which it appears is a significant determinant in the outcome.

 

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

8 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

I have no idea what racism has to do with coronavirus so I'll assume you are having some sort of conversation I'm not involved in, and I'll opt out of joining in.

But I'll ask you a question, are you against Trident renewal? I'll assume so, as most people on the left are. 

Because if the government is expected to be prepared for every possible eventuality, and lets say for arguments sake we weren't very well prepared for a 1918 Spanish Flu type event, and lets for argument sake blame the government of the last 10 years. 

If the world finds itself in another cold war situation between the USA and Russia/China, are you going to praising this government for ensuring that we have the foresight to ensure that we, along with France, are able to offer our own deterrent and protect the continent?

I'd guess you are not, and that's the hypocrisy of the left. 

So you wont discuss Racism but want to discuss Trident TvB? 

That ,my fellow poster, is selective whataboutery.

That is the Hypocrisy of Politics, Lefty and Righty. 👍

[Van wink 2,994]

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

All they will know from me is whether I am upstairs or downstairs.

Not really Ricardo, they will also know who you are in the bedroom with!

[ricardo 7,385]

Just now, Van wink said:

Not really Ricardo, they will also know who you are in the bedroom with!

At the moment that would be with the collective community on here😀