Corona Virus main thread

[Van wink 2,994]

12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

By entering a postcode we seem to have little to worry about here in Norwich, Almost nothing in NR2.

Somewhat different down the A140

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand17april

I was surprised when I had a look at it this morning, only up to 17 April of course so needs treating with a modicum of caution, but good news.

[T 190]

Indeed this crisis has shown office workers can work from home. We work with the government and have said we will continue to home work even when no longer a requirement to help the overall effort. 

[Van wink 2,994]

6 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I agree with both of you. If we can isolate sufferers as soon as they are infected we'll continue to drive it down.  The app will generally useful but on it's own it'll be far from sufficient.

Tracing and tracking though has to he just one of a range of measures. 15 million people live in the london metropolitan area. No way can they all be allowed to mix freely as no app and no amount of tests or testers would be able to control further spread here.

London is a huge problem and has sadly made a large contribution to the fatality figures. I know people have referred to other metropolitan Cities but in terms of sheer population and proximity of living and travel London presents a massive challenge to controlling this.

[Van wink 2,994]

29 minutes ago, Herman said:

As to track and trace apps it's a question of trust. Can the government and Big Tech be trusted with our data once this is all over? On recent evidence, no. So there will be many people reluctant to sign up to it.

Can the app not be deleted when ( hopefully ) there is a successful vaccination program. There will obviously be lots of data held but not necessarily ongoing. There is undoubtedly a question of trust, but self interest is also a driver here, we would all presumably want to know if we had been put at risk to avoid passing it on to loved ones.

Edited May 2, 2020 by Van wink

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

9 hours ago, Bill said:

Another step back from the abyss

" The British government is quietly seeking access to the European Union’s pandemic warning system, despite early reluctance to cooperate on health after Brexit "

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/02/uk-seeks-access-to-eu-health-cooperation-in-light-of-coronavirus

" In another sign of rising British interest in European cooperation, the Guardian has established that the UK attended all five of the EU’s health security committee meetings on the coronavirus pandemic in April, a perfect attendance record, compared with a 70% British presence between 17 January and 30 March. "

The nagging thought will be further raised of how many deaths could have been avoided with proper cooperation - instead of some 'begging' to be let back in when it all went wrong.

Other non-EU countries are also in the system. Now tell us exactly what the EU did to co-ordinate the EU response to Wuhan virus.

[Bagster 101]

Yes vw but how long do you need the app for?

It's not just about deleting the APP

What happens to the information that you have given to the APP, will they delete that too.

Ask Edward Snowdon what he thinks?

Don't mind a mask, don't mind a face shield, I will clean my hands more often and I will social distance.

I will not download an APP for track and trace 

[T 190]

BBC reporting coronavirus disinformation primarily links to far right extremists. What a surprise when you see the lies and nonsense spread by the hard right on here. Trump being a prime example. . That is why I stand up to the the dangerous hard right extremists on here to expose their lies and nonsense. 

[Mr Angry 1,545]

3 minutes ago, T said:

What a surprise when you see the lies and nonsense spread by the hard right on here. Trump being a prime example. 

Trump has a login on here? Who would’ve thought?

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

2 hours ago, Bill said:

It is also the case that on the assumption that there are only so many who will die from catching the virus then at some point it runs out of victims.

I suspect the easing of restrictions will be as I said. A gradual relaxation of enforcement rather some grand announcement of a specific hour/date.

WW2 showed that indifference soon set in. After a while the numbers using the Anderson shelters, carrying their gas mask and even turn out for the Home Guard decreased as the war went on.

We will be told that it is ok to be outside as long as we observe advice about distancing, hygiene etc. It will be to a degree be up to the individual to balance the risks over work. Hold the restrictions too long and when the fall apart it does little for authority who will then be seen to be enforcing unnecessary rules

So you will have to take your chance.... that's all that can be done, given the economy etc

Perhaps that was because after 1943 the bombing of UK cities significantly decreased, not because people were indifferent.

[Bagster 101]

57 minutes ago, T said:

BBC reporting coronavirus disinformation primarily links to far right extremists. What a surprise when you see the lies and nonsense spread by the hard right on here. Trump being a prime example. . That is why I stand up to the the dangerous hard right extremists on here to expose their lies and nonsense. 

So T writes 5 lines

Far right extremists

Hard right

Dangerous Hard right extremists

Please tell us who you consider to be hard right extremists on here?

And congratulations for bravely standing up to their lies and nonsense, wow Bill could've said that.

Edited May 2, 2020 by Bagster

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, Mr Angry said:

Trump has a login on here? Who would’ve thought?

He’s Bill

Edited May 2, 2020 by Van wink

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

The peak has passed, it's really not very difficult to work that out...........

Unfortunately it is extremely difficult to work it out.

It may be that the peak has passed but it is by no means certain - that assertion comes from people who are purely looking at hospital deaths, despite the fact it was established some time ago that hospital deaths only accounted for approx 50% of virus deaths. Although the government are finally beginning to recognise this, we are still under-reporting deaths in care homes and I don't believe we are counting deaths in community at all - maybe a few are being counted but the lack of testing outside hospitals means that most are not.

So the reality is that we don't have clue when (or if) we've reached the peak - all we can be fairly certain of is that deaths in hospital are falling whilst deaths in care homes and community settings generally are rising and are considerably greater than the published figures.

In any case it really doesn't matter when the peak was, what matters now, if we are to successfully relax the restrictions is to be able to accurately monitor when the infection has declined to the point at which it can be controlled by testing and tracing. Even though our testing capability has been ramped up substantially, it will require even more (and more accurate) tests plus a track and trace capability that has yet to be established.

It seems as though we're finally starting to head in the right direction but if you look our current numbers which are still huge and still only telling us what is happening in hospitals and very little about what is happening in the community then it is pretty clear that we are still some way off anything other than a very small relaxation of the current restrictions - assuming, of course, that the government has learnt from its earlier mistakes and isn't going to take another massive gamble with the virus.

[The Real Buh 3,423]

2 hours ago, T said:

BBC reporting coronavirus disinformation primarily links to far right extremists. What a surprise when you see the lies and nonsense spread by the hard right on here. Trump being a prime example. . That is why I stand up to the the dangerous hard right extremists on here to expose their lies and nonsense. 

Hilariously unhinged

[Van wink 2,994]

40 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Unfortunately it is extremely difficult to work it out.

It may be that the peak has passed but it is by no means certain - that assertion comes from people who are purely looking at hospital deaths, despite the fact it was established some time ago that hospital deaths only accounted for approx 50% of virus deaths. Although the government are finally beginning to recognise this, we are still under-reporting deaths in care homes and I don't believe we are counting deaths in community at all - maybe a few are being counted but the lack of testing outside hospitals means that most are not.

So the reality is that we don't have clue when (or if) we've reached the peak - all we can be fairly certain of is that deaths in hospital are falling whilst deaths in care homes and community settings generally are rising and are considerably greater than the published figures.

In any case it really doesn't matter when the peak was, what matters now, if we are to successfully relax the restrictions is to be able to accurately monitor when the infection has declined to the point at which it can be controlled by testing and tracing. Even though our testing capability has been ramped up substantially, it will require even more (and more accurate) tests plus a track and trace capability that has yet to be established.

It seems as though we're finally starting to head in the right direction but if you look our current numbers which are still huge and still only telling us what is happening in hospitals and very little about what is happening in the community then it is pretty clear that we are still some way off anything other than a very small relaxation of the current restrictions - assuming, of course, that the government has learnt from its earlier mistakes and isn't going to take another massive gamble with the virus.

Looks like sadly we have two epidemics atm, one in the general community which I think has peaked and is coming down, in parallel we have a separate epidemic which is raging through social care settings, has its own curve and may well still be at or about to peak. 

Edited May 2, 2020 by Van wink

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,781]

2 hours ago, Bagster said:

Yes vw but how long do you need the app for?

It's not just about deleting the APP

What happens to the information that you have given to the APP, will they delete that too.

Ask Edward Snowdon what he thinks?

Don't mind a mask, don't mind a face shield, I will clean my hands more often and I will social distance.

I will not download an APP for track and trace 

You know that pretty much every app on your phone tracks your location, right?

[Mello Yello 2,281]

2 hours ago, T said:

BBC reporting coronavirus disinformation primarily links to far right extremists. What a surprise when you see the lies and nonsense spread by the hard right on here. Trump being a prime example. . That is why I stand up to the the dangerous hard right extremists on here to expose their lies and nonsense. 

[T 190]

Ii is hardly surprising to learn that the hard right won’t share data to save lives given they priorities of nationalism over healthcare and are the prime source of disinformation. The hard right are more concerned about ideology than other people’s lives. Given their dodgy activities you can understand why they are reluctant to share data particularly given the police interest in monitoring the dangerous activities of the hard right. 
 

People reluctant to share data to save lives.happily share far more data on Google Amazon Facebook Instagram linked in and also happily share their xenophobic nationalist views on here which can also be traced. They are not exactly the brightest. 
 

For the app to be really successful they reckon they need 60pc take up. The UK has gone for data centralisation which does give more data. Germany has gone for a decentralised solution where data is stored on the phone for warning alerts. . The solution has satisfied those data experts with data concerns so that there is broad support for the app and greater take up. People can then volunteer to share data centrally which I’m already doing because I don’t get up to anything dodgy and am more concerned about saving lives than ideology. 

[Mark .Y. 351]

8 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Unfortunately it is extremely difficult to work it out.

It may be that the peak has passed but it is by no means certain - that assertion comes from people who are purely looking at hospital deaths, despite the fact it was established some time ago that hospital deaths only accounted for approx 50% of virus deaths. Although the government are finally beginning to recognise this, we are still under-reporting deaths in care homes and I don't believe we are counting deaths in community at all - maybe a few are being counted but the lack of testing outside hospitals means that most are not.

So the reality is that we don't have clue when (or if) we've reached the peak - all we can be fairly certain of is that deaths in hospital are falling whilst deaths in care homes and community settings generally are rising and are considerably greater than the published figures.

In any case it really doesn't matter when the peak was, what matters now, if we are to successfully relax the restrictions is to be able to accurately monitor when the infection has declined to the point at which it can be controlled by testing and tracing. Even though our testing capability has been ramped up substantially, it will require even more (and more accurate) tests plus a track and trace capability that has yet to be established.

It seems as though we're finally starting to head in the right direction but if you look our current numbers which are still huge and still only telling us what is happening in hospitals and very little about what is happening in the community then it is pretty clear that we are still some way off anything other than a very small relaxation of the current restrictions - assuming, of course, that the government has learnt from its earlier mistakes and isn't going to take another massive gamble with the virus.

Not sure what you mean here CM. We have more than a clue, we have statistical evidence.

The "death count" totals have been updated to include care homes too now and they are on a steady decline. Generally, the past weeks daily figures were 20-25% less than the equivalent day from the previous week and the 7 day rolling average is clearly heading down too. As is the number of people in hospital with Covid-19. I'm not sure where you get your evidence from to say "deaths in care homes and community settings are generally rising" - it may be true but I certainly haven't seen any official statement to that effect. The figures may not capture every last death in the care homes but they seem pretty confident they have a good handle on it now.  

[Mark .Y. 351]

12 hours ago, T said:

Sorry but the experts and the S Korea experience  disagree with you. As WHO said test, test, test. Providing R stays below 1 then by definition the number of cases must reduce to a few hundred.   The fact that UK has estimated 45k deaths versus 7k in Germany shows that test trace isolate can have a dramatic effect. That S Korea has virtually eliminated  an explosion of cases without restrictions shows it can be done. The UK doesn’t agree with you either given the expansion of testing and proposed 18,000 tracers.  Once  you expand test trace and isolate you can replace blunt general restrictions with more targeted track trace isolate.as they are both ways of reducing R. It won’t be completely be one or the other though. We have been told we will continue to work from home because we can with no economic effect while lifting other restrictions. Basic social distancing will remain for the foreseeable but a lot of restrictions can be lifted by replacing the effect of restrictions with track trace isolate.

For me, the key thing as we come out of this is to protect the vulnerable. Masses of testing for care homes, hospitals and the "at risk" population so I'm not against a huge expansion in testing capability. But the rest of us will just go for a test if the app warns us to or we think we might have symptoms. As I said earlier if the key approach is T/T/I in somewhere like London (or any other major city) it simply isn't going to work.  

When you say the experts disagree with me, that isn't the experts in Spain, Italy, Holland, Denmark, throw in Sweden if you like too, and many other countries who are not saying they are reliant on T/T/I to be able to lift restrictions. Sure, they have some capability and will use what they have but it is not a defining part of their strategy. I would go so far as to say that it is dangerous for people to be told that T/T/I is going to solve the issue, I would much prefer the message to be that we must maintain proper social distancing until the evidence shows it is safe not to do so.    

[T 190]

Completely agree expect we will have to maintain basic hygiene hopefully always and basic social distancing and probably use of masks and then better masks until vaccine. But you can Phase down general restrictions as you phase up more specific test trace isolate restrictions as they are both designed to reduce R.
 

We work with government and we fully plan to maintain home office after test trace isolate with apps are introduced and to refrain from multi people events and are being sent masks to wear if have to go into office and aren’t sat alone in own office room.  It is just part of the new normal solution not a silver bullet. S Korea has got a lot closer to normal but still basic social distancing and masks. 

[The Real Buh 3,423]

1 hour ago, T said:

Ii is hardly surprising to learn that the hard right won’t share data to save lives given they priorities of nationalism over healthcare and are the prime source of disinformation. The hard right are more concerned about ideology than other people’s lives. Given their dodgy activities you can understand why they are reluctant to share data particularly given the police interest in monitoring the dangerous activities of the hard right. 
 

People reluctant to share data to save lives.happily share far more data on Google Amazon Facebook Instagram linked in and also happily share their xenophobic nationalist views on here which can also be traced. They are not exactly the brightest. 
 

For the app to be really successful they reckon they need 60pc take up. The UK has gone for data centralisation which does give more data. Germany has gone for a decentralised solution where data is stored on the phone for warning alerts. . The solution has satisfied those data experts with data concerns so that there is broad support for the app and greater take up. People can then volunteer to share data centrally which I’m already doing because I don’t get up to anything dodgy and am more concerned about saving lives than ideology. 

Cambridge Analytica, put your paintbrushes and your Nokia 3210 down and read up on it grandad.

your attitude is a disgrace.

[The Bristol Nest 513]

I am appalled that deep state paranoia could prevent uptake of life saving technology. A tracing app is only being considered as a way of containing a deadly epidemic. Test, trace and isolate could have saved so many lives in the UK. Remaining locked down will also cost lives. It is a way out of this national emergency. I can only assume that those who are against this have not witnessed the reality of this virus and probably assume that a random cold was their experience of it. 

It would be helpful if they could join the national effort to save lives.

[The Real Buh 3,423]

2 minutes ago, The Bristol Nest said:

I am appalled that deep state paranoia could prevent uptake of life saving technology. A tracing app is only being considered as a way of containing a deadly epidemic. Test, trace and isolate could have saved so many lives in the UK. Remaining locked down will also cost lives. It is a way out of this national emergency. I can only assume that those who are against this have not witnessed the reality of this virus and probably assume that a random cold was their experience of it. 

It would be helpful if they could join the national effort to save lives.

I will download the app as it is essential but you are crazy if you think the data won’t be mis-used. It’s just definitely going to happen.

Edited May 3, 2020 by The Real Buh

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Not sure what you mean here CM. We have more than a clue, we have statistical evidence.

The "death count" totals have been updated to include care homes too now and they are on a steady decline. Generally, the past weeks daily figures were 20-25% less than the equivalent day from the previous week and the 7 day rolling average is clearly heading down too. As is the number of people in hospital with Covid-19. I'm not sure where you get your evidence from to say "deaths in care homes and community settings are generally rising" - it may be true but I certainly haven't seen any official statement to that effect. The figures may not capture every last death in the care homes but they seem pretty confident they have a good handle on it now.  

I meant exactly what I said - we have incomplete and sometimes inaccurate statistical evidence and therefore you cannot confidently draw what you described as the plain and obvious conclusion that the peak was on 8th April.

As to the care homes and the community you seem to have a touching, but I would suggest extremely naive, faith in official statements - if you listen to what many, many staff in care homes are reported to be saying or better still if you are able to talk to people that you know to be trustworthy and working on the front line then I think you will quickly discover that official statements often bear very little resemblance to what is happening in the real world.

We may be past the peak, we probably are, and we all certainly hope we are but the fact that we're still being fed large amounts of bullsh!t by the government has certainly alarmed both the scientists and the country at large, not least because it raises fears that they are going to repeat some of the mistakes that they made in the build up to the crisis when they try to start easing the lockdown.

Even so, I was quite surprised to see a survey this morning saying that only 17% of people think that the time is right to even consider re-opening schools, pubs, restaurants and stadiums - will be interesting to see if that has any effect on Johnson or perhaps even gives the EPL a wake up call.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Creative Midfielder
missing word

[The Bristol Nest 513]

3 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

I will download the app as it is essential but you are crazy if you think the data won’t be mis-used. It’s just definitely going to happen.

Fair enough but I am also on Facebook, Twitter Instagram etc and would choose to make a stand on those platforms first.

[The Real Buh 3,423]

7 minutes ago, The Bristol Nest said:

Fair enough but I am also on Facebook, Twitter Instagram etc and would choose to make a stand on those platforms first.

In South Korea they tracked people’s bank accounts and all sorts.

I don’t have a tin foil hat and the virus tracing methodology is sound but I do believe 1984 should be compulsory reading. I believe this virus will be used to accelerate a lot of stuff that was coming down the road but can now be pushed.

[Mark .Y. 351]

2 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I meant exactly what I said - we have incomplete and sometimes inaccurate statistical evidence and therefore you cannot confidently draw what you described as the plain and obvious conclusion that the peak was on 8th April.

As to the care homes and the community you seem to have a touching, but I would suggest extremely naive, faith in official statements - if you listen to what many, many staff in care homes are reported to be saying or better still if you are able to talk to people that you know to be trustworthy and working on the front line then I think you will quickly discover that official statements often bear very little resemblance to what is happening in the real world.

We may be past the peak, we probably are, and we all certainly hope we are but the fact that we're still being fed large amounts of bullsh!t by the government has certainly alarmed both the scientists and the country at large, not least it raises fears that they are going to repeat some of the mistakes that they made in the build up to the crisis when they try to start easing the lockdown.

Even so, I was quite surprised to see a survey this morning saying that only 17% of people think that the time is right to even consider re-opening schools, pubs, restaurants and stadiums - will be interesting to see if that has any effect on Johnson or perhaps even gives the EPL a wake up call.

We have plenty enough data to know we are past the peak - you are choosing not to see it. You appear to be saying that the death statistics compiled by the NHS and ONS are lies - yes ?   A counter point I would put to that is that many of the deaths being reported as Covid-19, actually aren't, the deceased may have the virus but that may not be what actually caused the death.

The vast majority of Europe is past the peak now, as we are. I gave the April 8th date some time ago as that was the only consistent data we had then, with the care homes included the date of the peak may be slightly later- but it has certainly passed. 

Death is the lag indicator, a good lead indicator might be admissions to hospital - which are also falling, unless they are making those figures up too 😞

[Bagster 101]

I won't pretend I know the slightest thing about Apps so I got information from a man that does

I would consider this man to be both knowledgeable on the subject and fair.

So I did a search and came up with this

[Van wink 2,994]

Intersting to hear Ian Diamond head of the ONS on Marr this morning completely dispelling the view that we are heading for the worst Covid 19 death rate in Europe. The reality is we dont know, data is collected and reported in so many different ways that its not possible to compare. Good to have an authoritative view on this.

[Bagster 101]

You only have to listen to Belgium to know that, these figures are all pie in the sky