Corona Virus main thread

[T 190]

15 minutes ago, Van wink said:

We seem to be afflicted {self inflicted } with a number of the precursors for a poor clinical outcome for CV19, not a healthy population in the UK.

New get fit with Boris programme for all his followers? 

[Van wink 2,994]

5 minutes ago, T said:

New get fit with Boris programme for all his followers? 

Shed the pounds with Jeremy?

[Indy 3,283]

1 hour ago, Badger said:

I think it was because they were "mending the roof whilst the sun was shining," (whilst borrowing record amounts of course). 

Yes but it’ll be your children and your children’s children who will be paying for this.....who actually do we owe the money to? Where have we actually borrowed it from and what was the collateral? War is coming.😉

Edited April 23, 2020 by Indy

[Van wink 2,994]

Just now, Indy said:

Yes but it’ll be your children and your children’s children who will be paying for this.....who actually do we owe the money to? Where have we actually borrowed it from and what was the collateral? War is coming.

We are going to get wave after wave of this no matter how successful the initial lockdown is. its what makes all the carping about which country is doing the best atm such a load of old tripe, its only after we get a vaccine and look back that we will ever be able to judge how successful we have been and what the real cost is for future generations.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

11 minutes ago, Indy said:

Yes but it’ll be your children and your children’s children who will be paying for this.....who actually do we owe the money to? Where have we actually borrowed it from and what was the collateral? War is coming.😉

Aren't we just printing most of it??

[T 190]

Synchronised Union Jack flag waving gymnastics?

Fun runs with blue passports for completing the course?

 

[Indy 3,283]

Just now, Van wink said:

We are going to get wave after wave of this no matter how successful the initial lockdown is. its what makes all the carping about which country is doing the best atm such a load of old tripe, its only after we get a vaccine and look back that we will ever be able to judge how successful we have been and what the real cost is for future generations.

The real cost could be more lives lost to other things from the fallout of this virus than this virus..... the reality it will take out the older / weaker people, earlier than they might have, but we’re all going to die.....is the cost to save us old folk really worth the potential cost to our children or grand children? It just appears to be a massive cost in borrowing and in lost growth for the global reaction.
Might just be me but I’m thinking the reality will be we have to move on, move towards normality, isolate those vulnerable and put in place certain measures to try and control the spread till we have a vaccine....but we need to move back towards some form of normality.

[Van wink 2,994]

14 minutes ago, Indy said:

The real cost could be more lives lost to other things from the fallout of this virus than this virus..... the reality it will take out the older / weaker people, earlier than they might have, but we’re all going to die.....is the cost to save us old folk really worth the potential cost to our children or grand children? It just appears to be a massive cost in borrowing and in lost growth for the global reaction.
Might just be me but I’m thinking the reality will be we have to move on, move towards normality, isolate those vulnerable and put in place certain measures to try and control the spread till we have a vaccine....but we need to move back towards some form of normality.

 

Yeh I know your view, its not been the most popular on here to date but I suspect may become the grim reality of where we will end up. The money tree is going to run out. We can see the fall out from Chris Whitty's comment yesterday, which of course has always been the reality. Social fatigue is going to creep in before too long, that was one of the factors that was considered when the Government were deciding when to introduce lockdown,  social compliance with the lockdown will have a sort shelf life in the UK so it had to be done at a point when it would have the maximum effect. I dont necessarily agree with how they've played this but behavioural scientists were featuring heavily in advising the Government early on. In the end we will be isolating the few so that the rest can get on with their lives.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Van wink

[Surfer 1,547]

51 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I think you may be losing track here, but dont worry its not important, I'm not interested in building an alter to pedantry, even if you are.

Is the whole point of this  that you wish to flag up the difference between German and UK stats. If so I have already directed you to Ricardo's post.

O.K we'll move on, but as you were the one questioning what I posted, it seemed reasonable to ask what you meant.

And yes Germany's results is part of what I posted, but not all of it .

Whatever. 

[Mark .Y. 351]

50 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

7 day rolling averages are not a great indicator overall. You say that France has dropped sharply...this is not the case at all. Since the start of April France has  had a stable 500 +  deaths a day..a few days in those 3 weeks or more its  been much higher but those were the days when France tried at least to include outside of hospital deaths. But if you exclude those deaths, then around 500 or a bit higher has been the norm for over 3 weeks.

Today Spain had slightly higher  new cases more than the UK and for the past 8 days Spain' s daily deaths has been rising again..but 8 days is not long enough to consider a definite upward trend in my opinion, even so its not good news. As for Germany, well its plain to see they have done better than many other nations in Europe, good on them.

No, it hasn't.

Going backwards from the 23rd April

440   435   430   399   410   565   348   551 523   567   517   619

Definitely a slow trend down, those figures are from the official Spanish govt website and are as quoted on Spanish TV

[Bill 1,788]

24 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Aren't we just printing most of it??

nope not physicallyf

the government can issue bonds...which people like pension funds can buy giving them a fixed rate over a given period - and as such entities spread the risk of their money they will have a certain amount in safe areas

this gives the government money to spend when it is needed for a definite purpose

physically printing money would be akin to cutting a cake into 8 pieces from four pieces - no extra cake but each bit is worth less than before ..... inflation

 

quantative easingi s when the government buys back its bonds so allowing the holders to have liquid money to spent, which amounts to the government putting that money into the economy, the idea being that as the amount of money (money supply) increase so it's cost (interest rate) goes down, therefore stimulating the economy by making things cheaper to make, build etc

 

obviously its a good deal more complicated than that but it should give you an idea of what is being done, how and why

[ricardo 7,345]

Its a quantum cake, it exists only in another dimension.

but we will be eating it in this one all the same.

[Bill 1,788]

7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its a quantum cake, it exists only in another dimension.

but we will be eating it in this one all the same.

sounds more like a hash cake

(I hope you are not going to start calling everyone, man)

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

3 hours ago, sgncfc said:

On the basis that we will be testing 100,000 people, mostly with symptoms, by April 30th (apparently) I rather suspect the numbers of infections is about to rise quite dramatically. As a result the mortality rate will go down.

Which of the two graphs will actually tell us anything?

The data we are collecting and on which the science is based which is being followed by the government is completely inadequate for any evidence based decisions to be made. I'm tempted to believe that the original "herd immunity" policy is still being followed.

 

What other data should we be gathering to make it adequate?

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

Too many on here trying to read too much into poor statistics that don't meet any close scrutiny and can be misinterpreted by the lay man in any manner of ways or spun to suit some or other agenda. 

Broad trends yes - details no. Germany doing better yes, Uk doing in comparison badly  - yes. Are we following Italy - yes. What are the exit strategies for either and are they believable / credible ? If not why not. What costs are we able / willing to pay.

Talk to some medics - even virologists, epidemiologists etc. if you know any. Generally they seem 'angry' about things. Death certificates without any PM especially in a care homes are open to all sorts subjective views on any and all corvid / no covid interpretations. Only statistical excess deaths will eventually unravel the true cost.

If we must judge,  judge the government on the targets that it has set itself - the testing (or lack of) and preparations for Covid seems most apt at present and yes overall deaths - after all this s is what the public at large will remember and eventually act and pass judgement on. 

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

3 hours ago, Bill said:

It is that failure to invest that has seen the US almost fall apart (see below) - and now the UK is following suit. Schools, roads, hospitals have now been maintained.

https://www.businessinsider.com/asce-gives-us-infrastructure-a-d-2017-3?r=US&IR=T#hazardous-waste-d-6

The difference that in much of Europe the economy is ran to benefit its citizens - whereas in the UK and US it is solely profit generation that is the driving force. Short-termism that sees state assets plundered, and long term planning is derided as state control

So it should have come as no surprise that this crisis has exposed that 'casino' like economy, badly.

Folk will be out clapping tonight, not asking why those self same nurses had to take on huge debt to work in such a low paid job. They won't be asking how much Rees-Mogg and his fellow vultures have made out of this.

Or why billions can be found to pay for an absolute rail line, but not schools. Who benefited from selling off nurses homes close to hospitals. Why we can build temporary hospitals in a matter of days, but not needed housing over a decade. Who benefits from having 20,000 fewer police.

Maybe folk should start wondering why we can borrow an extra £225bn to pay for people to stay at home - but not use a fraction of that to begin fixing the mistakes of the past decade.

Or is that certain folk see no wrong in crumbling schools/hospitals, a shortage  of nurses and police, with huge sums being wasted on housing benefit for squalid slums.

Ok. I will ask if no one else does. How much has Rees-Mogg made from the Corona virus pandemic?

[ricardo 7,345]

13 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Ok. I will ask if no one else does. How much has Rees-Mogg made from the Corona virus pandemic?

I think it was meant to be  metaphorical

[Barbe bleu 814]

32 minutes ago, Bill said:

nope not physicallyf

the government can issue bonds...which people like pension funds can buy giving them a fixed rate over a given period - and as such entities spread the risk of their money they will have a certain amount in safe areas

this gives the government money to spend when it is needed for a definite purpose

physically printing money would be akin to cutting a cake into 8 pieces from four pieces - no extra cake but each bit is worth less than before ..... inflation

 

quantative easingi s when the government buys back its bonds so allowing the holders to have liquid money to spent, which amounts to the government putting that money into the economy, the idea being that as the amount of money (money supply) increase so it's cost (interest rate) goes down, therefore stimulating the economy by making things cheaper to make, build etc

 

obviously its a good deal more complicated than that but it should give you an idea of what is being done, how and why

Genuinely interesting and informative. 

More like this please (less like....)

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

OOOHHHH

Just had an email form Kantar doing a survey for the Cabinet Office on Business Support...

Government’s business support during coronavirus (COVID-19)

The Cabinet Office has commissioned an independent research organisation, Kantar, to conduct important research about the provision of Government support to UK businesses and self-employed during the coronavirus crisis. 

We are interested in the views of self-employed, business owners and senior managers who can tell us about how their business has been affected by coronavirus and what business decisions may be taken to mitigate this impact....................  

Now what should I say ! At least they are trying to listen.

 

[Essjayess 307]

47 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

No, it hasn't.

Going backwards from the 23rd April

440   435   430   399   410   565   348   551 523   567   517   619

Definitely a slow trend down, those figures are from the official Spanish govt website and are as quoted on Spanish TV

Then you read it wrongly in my opinion Mark.

More than 400 daily deaths from Brazil today, thats about the highest  daily from any nation outside Europe, excluding China and USA, that i can think of. Brazil is really beginning to hurt .

[Bill 1,788]

3 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Then you read it wrongly in my opinion Mark.

More than 400 daily deaths from Brazil today, thats about the highest  daily from any nation outside Europe, excluding China and USA, that i can think of. Brazil is really beginning to hurt .

that must be the real fear, as however tragic the loss of life is in 1st world countries there is a thought (and evidence) that they will get the virus under control (of some sort)

what will happen in parts of Africa and India where similar medical resources do not exist areas where the virus could mutate/remain only to return to wreak havoc

and that is not intended to demonstrate a callous attitude towards those people, whose lives are just as important as ours - we have to begin to look at things like this globally - it recognises no borders, race or coloured bits of cloth either

[T 190]

Hence those countries supporting WHO and EU funds as they recognise that you need international customers and suppliers and labour. Hence some countries introducing restrictions while others are bringing in labour from other countries and lifting restrictions on immigrants working as they recognise the need for immigrant for essential work such as the food chain. Hence countries talking about opening borders as soon as they can safely as they recognise free movement is essential to the economy.
 

There will be more on-shoring of essential supplies such as PPE and Basic Pharma requirements but anyone who understands science and business and economics recognises the need for international cooperation to manage and recover from this. Fairly clear who gets these basic fundamentals and who doesn’t. 

[Herman 9,713]

8 hours ago, ricardo said:

I think it was meant to be  metaphorical

I don't think it is. A lot of hedge funders and other very high stake gambling firms are making a lot of money. But then again it's what they do. Someone will always come up well in these situations. 

Look up the fable of the scorpion and the frog. 

Edited April 24, 2020 by Herman

[Mark .Y. 351]

8 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Then you read it wrongly in my opinion Mark.

More than 400 daily deaths from Brazil today, thats about the highest  daily from any nation outside Europe, excluding China and USA, that i can think of. Brazil is really beginning to hurt .

Morning "E"

If it is Spain you were definitely talking about when you said deaths have risen over the last 8 days, I promise you I haven't read it wrong.

I actually have Spain's numbers of cases and deaths every day since 26th March on a little slip of paper in front of me. They are the figures from the Spanish Government website Spain Figures and are as used on Spanish TV. If you are looking at Worldometers figures, they say they use the same source but sometimes seem to take a couple of days or so to "get aligned" - no idea why.

I keep a very careful eye on Spain as I have a property there and would really like to get back over as soon as we can.   

[Van wink 2,994]

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/coronavirus-testing-sites-testing-sites-to-move-to-hospitals-as-focus-turns-to-care-homes-1-6621705

 

I’m pleased to see testing capacity increasing for Norfolk, it appears that there are already 2 testing stations but these are being closed and three new ones opened.

This is an interesting remark following previous discussion on here that all staff from Norfolk have to travel to Sheffield or Stansted to be tested, maybe local facilities became overwhelmed and some were asked to travel further. 

“Mr Webster added: “NHS England and Improvement arranged for two sites at Stansted and Ipswich to be available in case of need but we have sufficient capacity in Norfolk and Waveney and no health or care staff should need to travel for tests outside Norfolk and Waveney.”

[Ian 1,129]

Interesting graphic re: Sweden. Of course it's still early days, but food for thought...

 

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by Ian
Could not find source of graph, deleting as it may not be from a reliable source.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

43 minutes ago, Van wink said:

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/coronavirus-testing-sites-testing-sites-to-move-to-hospitals-as-focus-turns-to-care-homes-1-6621705

 

I’m pleased to see testing capacity increasing for Norfolk, it appears that there are already 2 testing stations but these are being closed and three new ones opened.

This is an interesting remark following previous discussion on here that all staff from Norfolk have to travel to Sheffield or Stansted to be tested, maybe local facilities became overwhelmed and some were asked to travel further. 

“Mr Webster added: “NHS England and Improvement arranged for two sites at Stansted and Ipswich to be available in case of need but we have sufficient capacity in Norfolk and Waveney and no health or care staff should need to travel for tests outside Norfolk and Waveney.”

As I recall it was that care home staff etc that had to go to Sheffield or later corrected to Stansted - NHS itself was always more local - and not overwhelmed.

The government has finally been embarrassed enough to do something about it belatedly and offer local testing for all NHS & care workers plus relatives etc.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Van wink 2,994]

10 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

As I recall it was that care home staff etc that had to go to Sheffield or later corrected to Stansted - NHS itself was always more local - and not overwhelmed.

The government has finally been embarrassed enough to do something about it belatedly and offer local testing for all NHS and care workers plus relatives etc.

The quote refers to both health and care staff,  if there was overflow capacity at Stansted it’s not a surprise if it had to be used if demand on local facilities was high. 
What prompted the new facilities may be the embarrassment of the government but more likely I suspect part of a plan to increase testing capacity by the end of the month.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The quote refers to both health and care staff,  if there was overflow capacity at Stansted it’s not a surprise if it had to be used if demand on local facilities was high. 
What prompted the new facilities may be the embarrassment of the government but more likely I suspect part of a plan to increase testing capacity by the end of the month.

Look back at the original articles not what they are saying now going forward. Even look at what Tory Brandon Lewis said on the EDP a few days ago. There was problem (if there hadn't of been it would of been easy to quash it)!

Care home staff  (not NHS) where not included. This is what has changed and new 'roll-out'.

"Great Yarmouth MP Brandon Lewis admitted it is “dreadful” that care workers who want coronavirus testing are unable to get access." etc.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Van wink 2,994]

There must have been problems, no doubt about that. The report does say that “ over the last week we have been testing staff from local NHS trusts and organisations, and other health and social partner organisations including care homes at our drive through swabbing facility at the NCH” , make of that what you will.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Van wink