Corona Virus main thread

[Barbe bleu 816]

20 minutes ago, Surfer said:

 France has dropped sharply, and UK in fact has returned to growth not decline. 

So no special praise for the UK government for doing what everyone of these other countries has done, but in retrospect could our curve have looked like Germany's and looking forward, will we be able to reopen our economy as quickly as Germany? 

 

 

Ie be very surprised if our had returned to growth on an average basis.  The peak by death was quite clearly a while ago. Perhaps today's figures are very disappointing.

To the second question, I think that, yes, we could have had near Germany type figures but lockdown timing is not the cause; it's the trace, track, isolate that probably did most for us.  Population, density and chip eating probably didn't help much either though 

 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

3 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Locally, in Norfolk confirmed cases now at 1,169. Total hospital deaths 207.  Norfolk still rising in the UTLA region list for number of confirmed cases, now up to 14th.

As regards daily testings, Boris  said that there would be around 25,000 daily testings within 4 weeks. That 4 weeks is  nearly up and today testings was reported for yesterday as 23, 650. So really, not far from the mark

Promised to ramp the testing up to 100k by end of the month so a long way to go. The lab capacity is getting there but testing stations are a problem, hopefully the mobile test stations and home test will help.

 

[sonyc 5,492]

5 hours ago, hogesar said:

It's difficult. We want the Government to be open with us and explain things in more detail. Equally, they have to work with and for the lowest common denominator. In this case, bloody idiots that don't listen. I see them everyday - completely ignoring govt advice and going round friends houses, having peoples kids over to come play etc. If you allow them the opportunity to misinterpret, they'll do it, deliberately or otherwise.

I agree with this. Communication has to be simple and understandable. We need similar public information short films on TV too perhaps, how you ensure social distancing, best practice. After all, it's going to be a long haul.

Meanwhile, we can get good practical information from the Scottish government and other sources rather than our government (so far).

Or .....we come onto the Pinkun message board and folk on here will tell you!

[sonyc 5,492]

7 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Ie be very surprised if our had returned to growth on an average basis.  The peak by death was quite clearly a while ago. Perhaps today's figures are very disappointing.

To the second question, I think that, yes, we could have had near Germany type figures but lockdown timing is not the cause; it's the trace, track, isolate that probably did most for us.  Population, density and chip eating probably didn't help much either though 

 

 

Even China's post peak angle of graph (despite the question of numbers) was long and gentle. As it appears is Italy's too. It will be many months coming out of this won't it? Even assuming no great secondary infection. 

[sonyc 5,492]

Good to hear from Hancock about the testing plans.

Now, we are starting to attempt to manage it better. Ideally, might have happened in February with planning but better late than never. I guess the government is beginning to learn.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

Strategy. (or lack thereof)

I thought I'd answer this more clearly and not so flippantly (given the simple non-document BB threw up).

For what it's worth I'm pretty sure the government did and does have a long term strategy in mind just not one they can really own up to and tell the plebs.

It is 'herd' immunity until such time as a vaccine become available - or as Gove I think put it 'to run hot'.

They will attempt to open up the economy sooner rather than later and keep the 'recorded' hospital admissions hopefully just under what the NHS can control. Care homes and deaths elsewhere - well they may well accepted as 'God's Waiting Room'.   

All the rest is for show - the 'Nightingale' hospitals that they can't staff, the ventilators - all just propaganda to be seen to be doing something and good for the press.

Test and contact trace - Probably don't have the resources/society and that's why it was dropped - we can't do a Germany, Korea or China.!

In short, let me level with you  - Yes sadly many of our elderly will pass and those with other conditions but the next election is in 5 years and we have to rescue the economy !

If you're over 70 it's going to be long long haul and self (not state) preservation. But then you knew that didn't you!

[Surfer 1,547]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Good to see no spikes in the UK graph, protecting the NHS. 

Yes it is good, but with respect that analysis is the wrong way around. This is a chart of deaths not cases, so the fact there is no spike in deaths says that there was not a rapid enough growth in cases to overwhelm NHS capacity which would have then caused a spike in deaths.

[sgncfc 1,223]

On the basis that we will be testing 100,000 people, mostly with symptoms, by April 30th (apparently) I rather suspect the numbers of infections is about to rise quite dramatically. As a result the mortality rate will go down.

Which of the two graphs will actually tell us anything?

The data we are collecting and on which the science is based which is being followed by the government is completely inadequate for any evidence based decisions to be made. I'm tempted to believe that the original "herd immunity" policy is still being followed.

 

[Surfer 1,547]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

Ie be very surprised if our had returned to growth on an average basis.  The peak by death was quite clearly a while ago. Perhaps today's figures are very disappointing.

To the second question, I think that, yes, we could have had near Germany type figures but lockdown timing is not the cause; it's the trace, track, isolate that probably did most for us.  Population, density and chip eating probably didn't help much either though 

I'll repost the chart - it's a 7 day average to even out daily numbers. Yes it peaked and was declining, but it just went slightly up.

Over a third of Germany is Forests, is the population density any different than in our own cities? Is the German lager and bratwurst diet any better than our own beer and fish and chips? Is Germany more administratively efficient than UK?. Is it the liaissez-fair economic model pushed in the UK and US that means we never have proper infrastructure in place for these kinds of events? 

It's perfect reasonable to say that Italy was blindsided by this, it would be equally unreasonable to say that everybody else was as well, when Italy's evidence is right there showing them what was about to happen. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Surfer

[T 190]

Over a third of Germany is Forests, is the population density any different than in our own cities? Yes more regional emphasis - cities are not as dense as major UK cities  Is the German lager and bratwurst diet any better than our own beer and fish and chips? No but they exercise more Is Germany more administratively efficient than UK?.Yes absolutely  Is it the liaissez-fair economic model pushed in the UK and US that means we never have proper infrastructure in place for these kinds of events?  Yes - more emphsis on social equity than UK and US

But the main thing is test , track, isoloate which comes down to they are better at planning at organisng and more risk adverse. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by T

[ricardo 7,349]

Fairly obvious direction of travel from this data.

[Bill 1,788]

34 minutes ago, T said:

 Is it the liaissez-fair economic model pushed in the UK and US that means we never have proper infrastructure in place for these kinds of events?  Yes - more emphasis on social equity than UK and US

It is that failure to invest that has seen the US almost fall apart (see below) - and now the UK is following suit. Schools, roads, hospitals have now been maintained.

https://www.businessinsider.com/asce-gives-us-infrastructure-a-d-2017-3?r=US&IR=T#hazardous-waste-d-6

The difference that in much of Europe the economy is ran to benefit its citizens - whereas in the UK and US it is solely profit generation that is the driving force. Short-termism that sees state assets plundered, and long term planning is derided as state control

So it should have come as no surprise that this crisis has exposed that 'casino' like economy, badly.

Folk will be out clapping tonight, not asking why those self same nurses had to take on huge debt to work in such a low paid job. They won't be asking how much Rees-Mogg and his fellow vultures have made out of this.

Or why billions can be found to pay for an absolute rail line, but not schools. Who benefited from selling off nurses homes close to hospitals. Why we can build temporary hospitals in a matter of days, but not needed housing over a decade. Who benefits from having 20,000 fewer police.

Maybe folk should start wondering why we can borrow an extra £225bn to pay for people to stay at home - but not use a fraction of that to begin fixing the mistakes of the past decade.

Or is that certain folk see no wrong in crumbling schools/hospitals, a shortage  of nurses and police, with huge sums being wasted on housing benefit for squalid slums.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Bill

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Surfer said:

Yes it is good, but with respect that analysis is the wrong way around. This is a chart of deaths not cases, so the fact there is no spike in deaths says that there was not a rapid enough growth in cases to overwhelm NHS capacity which would have then caused a spike in deaths.

Its good that we flattened the curve and protected the NHS.👍.....that was the strategy and it has worked so far.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Van wink

[Van wink 2,994]

19 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Fairly obvious direction of travel from this data.

It is obvious......... unless you want it not to be

[Badger 2,405]

25 minutes ago, Bill said:

Maybe folk should start wondering why we can borrow an extra £225bn to pay for people to stay at home - but not use a fraction of that to begin fixing the mistakes of the past decade.

I think it was because they were "mending the roof whilst the sun was shining," (whilst borrowing record amounts of course). 

[Bill 1,788]

So many frightening parallels with the causes of failure in the UK

“We were unprepared but, even given the degree of unpreparedness, Trump’s decision to make this about politics rather than about science has meant we have responded far more poorly.”

" as a result of Trump’s mismanagement, the White House office responsible for pandemics had been closed, funding for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had been cut, and the US had gone into the crisis without enough testing kits, masks and protective gear. "

Otherwise a stark warning of the direction many over (and on) here want the UK to go.

The thicko society that equates the economy being run for the benefit of the whole community to 'communism. Leading to

" “The numbers turning to food banks are just enormous and beyond the capacity of them to supply. It is like a third world country. The public social safety net is not working.” “We have a safety net that is inadequate. The inequality in the US is so large. This disease has targeted those with the poorest health. In the advanced world, the US is one of the countries with the poorest health overall and the greatest health inequality.”

Meanwhile in the UK Universal credit has forced millions into debt, and relative poverty.

[Surfer 1,547]

39 minutes ago, sgncfc said:

On the basis that we will be testing 100,000 people, mostly with symptoms, by April 30th (apparently) I rather suspect the numbers of infections is about to rise quite dramatically. As a result the mortality rate will go down.

Which of the two graphs will actually tell us anything?

The data we are collecting and on which the science is based which is being followed by the government is completely inadequate for any evidence based decisions to be made...

 

Yes it's why I chose to focus on the deaths statistic as it's the only one that really matters as well as being the only one that can't be politically or administratively manipulated by a lack of testing. And yes I understand it can be thrown off by not recording non-hospital deaths and by misdiagnosis or non-diagnosis. But I suspect the case count is probably off by an order of magnitude not 25 - 50%. 

Antibody test results this week in LA suggest only 4% of the people tested have antibodies, while in NYC tests say it's over 20%. That is interesting and leads to the question why is NYC so much more susceptible that LA - weather / density / public transport / health and also demolishes a theory that California had a large and much earlier exposure to the virus (which make sense given our trade with Asia) hidden in the winter flu statistics. For LA even that 4% means we have 50 times the official case count of 8,000, heaven knows what it means for NYC specifically but across NY state as a whole it's 10X the official case count of 280,000. As a result it also suggests the calculated mortality rate is exaggerated (the deaths per 100K charts I posted are not affected) but even NYC is not even halfway to a 50% threshold where herd immunity can start to kick in.

Caveats - relatively small sample sizes of approx 3,000 total anti-body tests in either State. 

Sources

https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody-testing-results-covid-19-infections-los-angeles-county/

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/new-york-virus-deaths-top-15k-cuomo-expected-to-detail-plan-to-fight-nursing-home-outbreaks/2386556/

 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, Surfer said:

 And yes I understand it can be thrown off by not recording non-hospital deaths and by misdiagnosis or non-diagnosis. But I suspect the case count is probably off by an order of magnitude not 25 - 50%. 

 

?

[Surfer 1,547]

15 minutes ago, Van wink said:

?

?

Did you read what I just posted? 

Death rates can be thrown off by factors such as unrecorded nursing home or at home deaths... but a death is a death, it will show up in the stats eventually. Either explicitly as a Covid-19 death or as an "excess mortality" death. My guess is that what is being reported out is reasonably accurate but with an undercount of ~ 25% - 50%.

Case rates though are a function of test availability and policy applied to testing. i.e it's not really total cases it's confirmed cases that are being reported out. That is why these two anti-body tests in Los Angeles and New York are important - total (unconfirmed) cases are at least an order of magnitude higher than the (confirmed) cases being reported out - in fact the tests suggest it's 5,000% higher in Los Angeles.

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Surfer

[Barbe bleu 816]

1 hour ago, Surfer said:

I'll repost the chart - it's a 7 day average to even out daily numbers. Yes it peaked and was declining, but it just went slightly up.

Over a third of Germany is Forests, is the population density any different than in our own cities? Is the German lager and bratwurst diet any better than our own beer and fish and chips? Is Germany more administratively efficient than UK?. Is it the liaissez-fair economic model pushed in the UK and US that means we never have proper infrastructure in place for these kinds of events? 

It's perfect reasonable to say that Italy was blindsided by this, it would be equally unreasonable to say that everybody else was as well, when Italy's evidence is right there showing them what was about to happen. 

Is this graph of deaths by date reported or by date of death?  They are likely to give quite different results.

I'm not seeing any great reason to think differently to be honest. The differences between UK and Germany are likely driven by a multitude of factors. The most impprtant, in my humble opinion, is the attempts to contain this. The second is population geography (London is more than twice the size of Berlin and then some for instance). Thirdly, I am more than prepared to believe that we have a few kilos on the average german too.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

I noticed that there is not one testing hub in Norfolk according to the charts wheeled out at 5pm. The nearest for us in Cornwall is Plymouth. More to be available I understand. 

I do not think it is the best system for testing and still believe the best would certainly be for hospitals and care homes to test themselves. If the capacity is higher than the actual amount of tests being taken then the system isn't quite right.

[Van wink 2,994]

28 minutes ago, Surfer said:

?

Did you read what I just posted? 

Death rates can be thrown off by factors such as unrecorded nursing home or at home deaths... but a death is a death, it will show up in the stats eventually. Either explicitly as a Covid-19 death or as an "excess mortality" death. My guess is that what is being reported out is reasonably accurate but with an undercount of ~ 25% - 50%.

Case rates though are a function of test availability and policy applied to testing. i.e it's not really total cases it's confirmed cases that are being reported out. That is why these two anti-body tests in Los Angeles and New York are important - total (unconfirmed) cases are at least an order of magnitude higher than the (confirmed) cases being reported out - in fact the tests suggest it's 5,000% higher in Los Angeles.

 

Well yes of course I read it, that's how I recognised that it didn't make sense!

I'm still not sure what you are trying to show with this, unless it's the well trodden path of Germany having less deaths than the UK. If its that that's troubling you, Ricardo posted an article recently which may help.

[Surfer 1,547]

Just now, Van wink said:

Well yes of course I read it, that's how I recognised that it didn't make sense!

Do explain what you mean as  " ? "  doesn't quite cut it for me.... 

[Van wink 2,994]

24 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I noticed that there is not one testing hub in Norfolk according to the charts wheeled out at 5pm. The nearest for us in Cornwall is Plymouth. More to be available I understand. 

I do not think it is the best system for testing and still believe the best would certainly be for hospitals and care homes to test themselves. If the capacity is higher than the actual amount of tests being taken then the system isn't quite right.

Nearest to us is Stansted, hopeless, there was an article in the EDP talking about a station in Lynn but that doesnt appear to be up and running yet. The mobile testing stations will help plus now home testing, things are ramping up but it is taking time. 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, Surfer said:

Do explain what you mean as  " ? "  doesn't quite cut it for me.... 

"But I suspect the case count is probably off by an order of magnitude not 25 - 50%. "

that threw me

[T 190]

30 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Is this graph of deaths by date reported or by date of death?  They are likely to give quite different results.

I'm not seeing any great reason to think differently to be honest. The differences between UK and Germany are likely driven by a multitude of factors. The most impprtant, in my humble opinion, is the attempts to contain this. The second is population geography (London is more than twice the size of Berlin and then some for instance). Thirdly, I am more than prepared to believe that we have a few kilos on the average german too.

Yes more track trace and isolate. Less population density and yes less overweight and obese but still not great on the last point. 

[Van wink 2,994]

3 minutes ago, T said:

Yes more track trace and isolate. Less population density and yes less overweight and obese but still not great on the last point. 

We seem to be afflicted {self inflicted } with a number of the precursors for a poor clinical outcome for CV19, not a healthy population in the UK.

[Surfer 1,547]

9 minutes ago, Van wink said:

"But I suspect the case count is probably off by an order of magnitude not 25 - 50%. "

that threw me

Did my explanation resolve that for you as you later wrote - 

Well yes of course I read it, that's how I recognised that it didn't make sense!

[Van wink 2,994]

20 minutes ago, Surfer said:

Did my explanation resolve that for you as you later wrote - 

Well yes of course I read it, that's how I recognised that it didn't make sense!

I think you may be losing track here, but dont worry its not important, I'm not interested in building an alter to pedantry, even if you are.

Is the whole point of this  that you wish to flag up the difference between German and UK stats. If so I have already directed you to Ricardo's post.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Van wink

[Essjayess 307]

3 hours ago, Surfer said:

OK. 16th March is when the UK locked down then. On the shallow slope linear portion of the curve - which is deaths not cases. 

In response to "what chart are you looking at?" - this one. All the major countries have bent the curve, Germany included, but their overall response has been so good it's difficult to see. 

And since yesterday the updated figures suggest that the UK now has the worst (current) crisis across the major European countries. France has dropped sharply, and UK in fact has returned to growth not decline. 

So no special praise for the UK government for doing what everyone of these other countries has done, but in retrospect could our curve have looked like Germany's and looking forward, will we be able to reopen our economy as quickly as Germany? 

 

7 day rolling averages are not a great indicator overall. You say that France has dropped sharply...this is not the case at all. Since the start of April France has  had a stable 500 +  deaths a day..a few days in those 3 weeks or more its  been much higher but those were the days when France tried at least to include outside of hospital deaths. But if you exclude those deaths, then around 500 or a bit higher has been the norm for over 3 weeks.

Today Spain had slightly higher  new cases more than the UK and for the past 8 days Spain' s daily deaths has been rising again..but 8 days is not long enough to consider a definite upward trend in my opinion, even so its not good news. As for Germany, well its plain to see they have done better than many other nations in Europe, good on them.