Corona Virus main thread

[Badger 2,405]

1 hour ago, T said:

I have supported the govt where they have done well and criticised   them where they have done not so well. That some countries like Germany and S Korea have done better so far is clear. That these countries were better prepared is clear   That the UK has focused on emergency  planning for Brexit rather than the number one rated risk of a pandemic is clear. That NHS has lost staff because of Brexit is clear. That immigrants are critical to UK is clear.  I fully appreciate that people want to deflect and deny but some political policies mean that the UK is less prepared than it otherwise would have been. I think the Govt is now trying to do its best but they will inevitably be failings which are being exacerbated by previous policies. 

I agree with most of this - the govt did appear to be "slow off the mark," however, since then it has acted with energy and has done more good things that I thought that it would. 

I think that it is also fair to point out that it was a relatively new govt. (the one before the election was really just on election footing) so the crisis hit when several ministers we just getting used to the machinery of govt and establishing a modus operandi. Like many new govts they were trying to establish a "new relationship" at the centre of govt and were probably still hald way through this. 

[Barbe bleu 814]

2 hours ago, JF said:

My opinion on what???? You said you wanted the uk to follow the path of limited social distancing and herd immunity? I said isn’t that what our original plan was until the government were presented with the model that showed if we did then 250,000 could die, the day after was when the far stricter measures were implemented. 

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/17/coronavirus-will-kill-250000-uk-unless-britain-put-lockdown-12408369/

 

 

Our original plan was to contain it and if we failed social distancing to suppress it.   There never was a "let it run free" plan.

Thw same basic plan of being followed . What changed is the level of social distancing advised/enforced (and you can see thie evolution in the government documents from February  to 20 march). 

[Crafty Canary 495]

You can always rely on T to keep his Brexit rancour to the fore. Germany have done better than the UK whereas Spain, Italy and France are currently worse. This would suggest being in T’s EU utopia is irrelevant to a country’s response to the pandemic and their effectiveness.

[JF 694]

10 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Our original plan was to contain it and if we failed social distancing to suppress it.   There never was a "let it run free" plan.

Thw same basic plan of being followed . What changed is the level of social distancing advised/enforced (and you can see thie evolution in the government documents from February  to 20 march). 

I didn’t say our original plan was “let it run free” our original plan had a limited amount of social distancing, washing hands regularly, no shaking hands and a desire to build herd immunity, we then drastically changed that approach on the evidence of the model

Edited April 23, 2020 by JF

[Bill 1,788]

1 minute ago, Crafty Canary said:

You can always rely on T to keep his Brexit rancour to the fore. Germany have done better than the UK whereas Spain, Italy and France are currently worse. This would suggest being in T’s EU utopia is irrelevant to a country’s response to the pandemic and their effectiveness.

which would suggest that EU countries can, and do act, independently of each other - something you rightys have always claimed doesn't, or can't, happen 🙄

[Barbe bleu 814]

2 minutes ago, JF said:

I didn’t say out original plan was “let it run free”

Fair enough actually, you didn't say that.

 Perhaps I should be clear, my understanding is that we are pursuing exactly the same strategy we always have been.  We have taken different measures at different times in accordance with that strategy.

[JF 694]

1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

Fair enough actually, you didn't say that.

 Perhaps I should be clear, my understanding is that we are pursuing exactly the same strategy we always have been.  We have taken different measures at different times in accordance with that strategy.

Seems to be a bit of confusion on this on if that’s the case or not. There was certainly a lot of noise made at the beginning for a desire to build herd immunity, And herd immunity hasn’t been mentioned by any of the experts since the lockdown. And right before the lockdown the model that was presented to the government that said if we did follow our original path we were looking at catastrophic figures. Who knows though but that’s the way I’ve seen it 

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

55 minutes ago, JF said:

Seems to be a bit of confusion on this on if that’s the case or not. There was certainly a lot of noise made at the beginning for a desire to build herd immunity, And herd immunity hasn’t been mentioned by any of the experts since the lockdown. And right before the lockdown the model that was presented to the government that said if we did follow our original path we were looking at catastrophic figures. Who knows though but that’s the way I’ve seen it 

I've no idea what the strategy was or even if there was one at all.

I would guess of the many things that were discussed in the early days some scientist mentioned herd immunity which the simpler minded politicians and their advisors ran away with as a 'get out of jail' free card without any deep understanding. 

When it became increasingly obvious that it would be a disaster they changed. They had too.

Strategy - I think the government having one at all is the true myth. Since we had to lock-down (only after the direst predictions and if I recall large groups of scientists about to resign / go public) and with many of the more sensible sports already closed (i.e EPL) and schools following - I will leave the Cheltenham lot as a group of lemmings (being a RWNJ tattoo them all on the forehead DNR) - did the government 'conceed' to a shut down.

Since then they have been totally reactive, behind the curve and playing catch up. Yes lights on nobody home including No 10 !

Strategy - what strategy ?

Edited April 23, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Mark .Y. 351]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

which would suggest that EU countries can, and do act, independently of each other - something you rightys have always claimed doesn't, or can't, happen 🙄

Look, I'm not particularly pro or anti Brexit, I can see points to both.

But really, Italy didn't have any choice but act independently because the EU didn't provide any help when it was asked to by the Italians.

Ms Von der Leyden has since apologised to the Italian nation but I'm not sure that she will be held accountable and be removed from her position for the amount of Italian lives she might have saved had she got the EU **** in gear a bit earlier.

   

[Bill 1,788]

11 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

When it became increasingly obvious that it would be a disaster they changed. They had too.

"In a letter to The Times on Saturday, public health experts including Dr Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of The Lancet, pressed for the government to publish the data and modelling used to decide the UK's approach on the issue.

The letter notes that the UK's action on Covid-19 "is demonstrably different from most other countries’ responses globally and in Europe" and that there "is no clear indication that the UK’s response is being informed by experiences of other countries in containing the spread of Covid-19."

Share evidence

The letter continues: "We request that the government urgently and openly share the scientific evidence, data and models it is using to inform its decisions on the Covid-19 public health interventions in the UK.

"This transparency is essential to retain the scientific community, healthcare community, and the public’s understanding, co-operation and trust."  14th March

 

Unsurprisingly the government has been rather coy over this question - instead, choosing to try to throw up a smokescreen of misinformation and at time lies. What was their 'science' that they were following, yet quickly abruptly did an about turn ?

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

2 hours ago, Bill said:

The shortage of staff and lack of preparation lie solely at the feet of an ideology that oversaw constant cuts to equipment and training funds

Failure to act earlier was down to a brexit fixation and having a PM more interested in a photo opportunity that dealing with problems

Similarly, the foul up over joining the EU was, and still is, down to ideology

Since the ministers have been trying to play catch up

 

To try to deny the downward effect Brexit has had on this 'crisis' is to try and yet again deflect. As well as the above has no one grasped why there has been no shortage of food ? Cast your mind back to reports of all warehouse space being bought up so as to stockpile supplies to meet brexit caused shortages. Then read up on the constant comments that other matters were put aside by the government to focus on problems that would be caused by brexit.

Was that why the recommendations from Cygnus were not only ignored, but hidden away ? Civil servants who could, and would have normally been working on such preparations, as with the floods, were dealing with likely Brexit problems instead.

 

Any wonder the usual suspects have been dragging their sorry ar ses on here to try to deflect from all this by posting false information and baseless accusation towards certain medical experts.

 

 

 

 

 

I don't know whether we should be surprised or not, but those most critical of the government do seem to be the hardcore remainers - whether that is in the country at large or on this forum. Some even using covid-19 as a straw to clutch in the hope of still wanting to overturn Brexit.

[Bill 1,788]

10 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Look, I'm not particularly pro or anti Brexit, I can see points to both.

But really, Italy didn't have any choice but act independently because the EU didn't provide any help when it was asked to by the Italians.

Ms Von der Leyden has since apologised to the Italian nation but I'm not sure that she will be held accountable and be removed from her position for the amount of Italian lives she might have saved had she got the EU **** in gear a bit earlier.

thank you

that underlines my point, as

" “It must be recognised that in the early days of the crisis, in the face of the need for a common European response, too many have thought only of their own home problems.”

countries are autonomous, and there is nothing to be held accountable for

perhaps you might care to explain what that particular politician should be held accountable

possession of a foreign name, perhaps

[Bill 1,788]

3 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

I don't know whether we should be surprised or not, but those most critical of the government do seem to be the hardcore remainers - whether that is in the country at large or on this forum. Some even using covid-19 as a straw to clutch in the hope of still wanting to overturn Brexit.

Daily Mail, Telegraph, Times...... ?

 

ps any info on your previous comment

" in mid-January WHO were claiming that covid Human-Human infection was impossible."

maybe a quote, or that it was simply something you made up, again ?

[Barbe bleu 814]

Is it possible to filter out any post with the word Brexit in?

[Bill 1,788]

13 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Is it possible to filter out any post with the word Brexit in?

as likely as filtering out brexit being one of the causes of the government's failings over this crisis

[Mark .Y. 351]

12 minutes ago, Bill said:

thank you

that underlines my point, as

" “It must be recognised that in the early days of the crisis, in the face of the need for a common European response, too many have thought only of their own home problems.”

countries are autonomous, and there is nothing to be held accountable for

perhaps you might care to explain what that particular politician should be held accountable

possession of a foreign name, perhaps

I think as you generally spend your time pointing out how it is much better to be part of a large partnership - assisting and supporting each other being a key part of that, you might want to recogise how quickly that fell apart when the chips were down.

Your last line is clearly a veiled attempt to brand me a racist, which is one of your party pieces and let me assure you I am definitely not.

My point was that you have made it very clear that you want the British PM held accountable for lack of action in dealing with this crisis and causing a needless loss of life, and you might well be correct to ask for that, but now you don't seem to be able to bring yourself to find the same faults and demand the same reaction when it comes to the EU COmmission President.

 

“Too many were not there on time when Italy needed a helping hand at the very beginning,” Ursula von der Leyen told the European parliament. “And yes, for that it is right that Europe as a whole offers a heartfelt apology.”

Early in the crisis, both France and Germany imposed export bans on vital medical equipment, while no EU country initially responded to Italy’s call for aid via the bloc’s emergency mechanism. While healthcare policy and provision is the responsibility of member states, the EU is meant to support cooperation between them.

 

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

All of the figures will be inaccurate in some respects. Our NHS /  ONS is not uniquely awful at reporting. 

You can see the latest figures for all causes deaths and measure them against international returns in the COBR sides.

I dont want to make.this a political point but can I ask on what basis you are concluding that we have "by far" the worst figures and that the US returns are the worst. I am not saying that you are wrong but I'd be interested in the analysis 

In reverse order, worst as in deaths; simple as that. Of course there is a strong argument to suggest you should look at deaths per 1m population although in comparing the UK with France, Italy, Spain etc we would also be the worse in Europe if we were reporting true figures for non-hospital deaths.

Of course there are difficulties and some inconsistencies in classifying cause of death in all countries, even within Europe. But our NHS /ONS, if not unique, is extremely unusual within Europe in its failure to report on virus deaths outside hospitals, whether they be in care homes, people's own homes and now apparently prisons, and of course the lack of testing which applies to all these categories just makes our data substantiantially less useful than it should be which is a major worry given how crucial the data is to guiding future policy. There are even a number of question marks hanging over our NHS hospital figures although they may just fall into the category of genuine mistakes/inconsistencies but there are definitely those on the front line whose experience in the last few weeks lead them to believe that it may be policy rather than accidental.

[Ian 1,129]

3 hours ago, T said:

I have supported the govt where they have done well and criticised   them where they have done not so well. That some countries like Germany and S Korea have done better so far is clear. That these countries were better prepared is clear   That the UK has focused on emergency  planning for Brexit rather than the number one rated risk of a pandemic is clear. That NHS has lost staff because of Brexit is clear. That immigrants are critical to UK is clear.  I fully appreciate that people want to deflect and deny but some political policies mean that the UK is less prepared than it otherwise would have been. I think the Govt is now trying to do its best but they will inevitably be failings which are being exacerbated by previous policies. 

My point wasn't really aimed at you T, as you clearly are well-informed on the topic, and I do agree that there have been (as always) shortcomings within Government policy and response. Indeed, I don't really know of anybody who has suggested improvements could not have been made in hindsight.

My gripe is with those who, unlike yourself, conveniently gloss over any of the positive and rapid responses made (IMO rapid hospital construction, economic support for small businesses/employees/NHS, lowering the peak enough that the NHS has coped), and instead simply focus on what they consider problems and weaknesses. It is obvious to anybody with even half a brain that they are seeking to use and twist anything accordingly, under the guise of "concern" for front-line staff or whatever is convenient.

I am sure most can recognise the usual folk on this message board, but this sort of partisan attitude is seems endemic across social media in general, and in my opinion not a helpful attitude when trying to assess how ways in which pandemic responses can be improved in future.

I think it is absolutely reasonable to suggest that the German and South Korean responses have been superior up to this point, but it's important to remember that we are really only just getting over the first wave and most experts consider the possibility of multiple waves throughout the year. This is going to be a long haul and I will reserve final judgement until the world is returning to some sort of normality, and we can review this awful period both in terms of preventable deaths, and long-lasting impacts on the lives and livelihoods of people in the UK.
 

[ricardo 7,347]

30 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Is it possible to filter out any post with the word Brexit in?

Like watching a dog licking at an open wound😀

 

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

16 minutes ago, Bill said:

as likely as filtering out brexit being one of the causes of the government's failings over this crisis

To what do we assign your failings as a commentator over this crisis? Aren't you the chap who for four years said that Brexit wouldn't happen? You have an uncanny knack of being unable to separate the relevant from the irrelevant.

[Barbe bleu 814]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I've no idea what the strategy was or even if there was one at all.

I would guess of the many things that were discussed in the early days some scientist mentioned herd immunity which the simpler minded politicians and their advisors ran away with as a 'get out of jail' free card without any deep understanding. 

When it became increasingly obvious that it would be a disaster they changed. They had too.

Strategy - I think the government having one at all is the true myth. Since we had to lock-down (only after the direst predictions and if I recall large groups of scientists about to resign / go public) and with many of the more sensible sports already closed (i.e EPL) and schools following - I will leave the Cheltenham lot as a group of lemmings (being a RWNJ tattoo them all on the forehead DNR) - did the government 'conceed' to a shut down.

Since then they have been totally reactive, behind the curve and playing catch up. Yes lights on nobody home including No 10 !

Strategy - what strategy ?

The strategy was published on 3 march. It is at:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-action-plan/coronavirus-action-plan-a-guide-to-what-you-can-expect-across-the-uk

 

You can say what you like about it and how well it has been executed but that there was a strategy cant really be denied.

I have pasted below the key steps in the evolution of the government response here as a lot of utter ******** is being written

31 january, first uk cases.  Strategy is to isolate trace track etc

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cmo-confirms-casebelow-coronavirus-in-england

 

2 feb: advice on stopping the spread issued:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-public-information-campaign-launched-across-the-uk

26 february: Health secretary refers to a government strategy:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/covid-19-health-secretarys-statement-to-parliament

 

Announcement that we move from phase one of the strategy to phase two is on 12 march:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-government-announces-moving-out-of-contain-phase-and-into-delay

The initial advice (given in the 'you will lose loved ones' speech) for the man in the street was isolate if you have symptoms or live with someone who does. To the rest the advice is wash your hands.

On 16 March Imperial publish their modelling (ie the 'science' that leads to lockdown)

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-9-impact-of-npis-on-cov

On 16 March the advice is extended to require social distancing for all:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-16-march-2020

Large gatherings were, I  effect if not in law, banned on 16 march:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/controlling-the-spread-of-covid-19-health-secretarys-statement-to-parliamentid-19/

Schools were told to close on 18 march

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/schools-colleges-and-early-years-settings-to-close

 

Pubs etc were ordered to close on 20 march.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-announces-further-measures-on-social-distancing

 

On the same day (20 march) all of this  scientific evidence is published online.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-covid-19-scientific-evidence-supporting-the-uk-government-response

Edited April 23, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Van wink 2,994]

47 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

In reverse order, worst as in deaths; simple as that. 

 

 I haven't seen total figures on a directly comparative basis?  Could you tell us what they are?

Edited April 23, 2020 by Van wink

[Van wink 2,994]

32 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Like watching a dog licking at an open wound😀

 

Trouble with dogs is they also lick their bums.😉 Those tongues have been everywhere.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

4 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

The strategy was published on 3 march. It is at

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-action-plan/coronavirus-action-plan-a-guide-to-what-you-can-expect-across-the-uk

 

You can say what you like about it and how well it has been executed but that there was a strategy cant really be denied.

I have pasted below the key steps in the evolution of.the governme response here as a lot.of utter ******** is being writyen

31 january, first uk.cases.  strategy is.to.isolate trace track etc

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cmo-confirms-casebelow-coronavirus-in-england

 

2 feb: advice on stopping.rhe spread issued:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-public-information-campaign-launched-across-the-uk

26 february: Health secretary refers to.a government strategy

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/covid-19-health-secretarys-statement-to-parliament

 

Announcement that we move from phase one of the strategy to phase two is on 12 march

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-government-announces-moving-out-of-contain-phase-and-into-delay

The initial advice (given in the 'you will.lose.lived ones' speech) for the man in the street was isolate if you have symptoms or live with someone who does. To the rest the advice is wash your hands.

On16 march imperial publish their modelling (ie the 'science' that leads to lockdown)

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-9-impact-of-npis-on-cov

On 16 March the advice is extended to require social distancing for all:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-16-march-2020

Large gatherings were, I  effect if not in law, banned on 16 march:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/controlling-the-spread-of-covid-19-health-secretarys-statement-to-parliamentid-19/

Schools were told to close on 18 march

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/schools-colleges-and-early-years-settings-to-close

 

Pubs etc were ordered to close on 20 march.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-announces-further-measures-on-social-distancing

 

On the same day (20 march) all of this  scientific evidence is published online.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-covid-19-scientific-evidence-supporting-the-uk-government-response

 

Two quick answers (most of this 'strategy' is a wish list that anybody could write - nice words - why didn't they follow it!).

Why did they stop community tracing / tracking as per WHO, Germany etc -  the track and contact phase

Have they fully resourced the hospitals, cares homes, testing,  PPE etc (to quote - ensure that the agencies responsible for tackling the outbreak are properly resourced to do so, that they have the people, equipment and medicines they need, and that any necessary changes to legislation are taken forward as quickly as possible

Phase 1 and 2 contain and delay frankly became merged.

And whatever you might want to think - most sports had already closed, cancelled, and schools were already closing BEFORE the government reacted. Yes Re-acted. 

 

Of course they are now doing their best - most of it is commonsense - and fully understandable reaction to events.

 

 

 

 

[Mello Yello 2,281]

38 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Trouble with dogs is they also lick their bums.😉 Those tongues have been everywhere.

Rim is grim.....

[Badger 2,405]

3 hours ago, Crafty Canary said:

You can always rely on T to keep his Brexit rancour to the fore. Germany have done better than the UK whereas Spain, Italy and France are currently worse. This would suggest being in T’s EU utopia is irrelevant to a country’s response to the pandemic and their effectiveness.

Why would it be? I don't see how it is linked in any way?

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Of course the Government is doing its best. They have no reason to be doing anything else.

Problem is that maybe their best isn't good enough

Maybe losing an election as a pandemic begins is no bad thing

Our plan, last amended 4 years ago, wasn't the best for this virus unfortunately and it took a bit too long to realise it.

[Surfer 1,547]

OK. 16th March is when the UK locked down then. On the shallow slope linear portion of the curve - which is deaths not cases. 

In response to "what chart are you looking at?" - this one. All the major countries have bent the curve, Germany included, but their overall response has been so good it's difficult to see. 

And since yesterday the updated figures suggest that the UK now has the worst (current) crisis across the major European countries. France has dropped sharply, and UK in fact has returned to growth not decline. 

So no special praise for the UK government for doing what everyone of these other countries has done, but in retrospect could our curve have looked like Germany's and looking forward, will we be able to reopen our economy as quickly as Germany? 

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Surfer

[Van wink 2,994]

Good to see no spikes in the UK graph, protecting the NHS. 

[Essjayess 307]

Locally, in Norfolk confirmed cases now at 1,169. Total hospital deaths 207.  Norfolk still rising in the UTLA region list for number of confirmed cases, now up to 14th.

As regards daily testings, Boris  said that there would be around 25,000 daily testings within 4 weeks. That 4 weeks is  nearly up and today testings was reported for yesterday as 23, 650. So really, not far from the mark