Corona Virus main thread

[Mello Yello 2,281]

1 hour ago, Uncle Fred said:

All this nonsense about PPE they could easily use reusable kit saving lives and cost

Example attaches below

What do you intend doing with that traffic cone?.....

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

3 hours ago, Indy said:

This is fast turning into a Brexit type thread, pointing fingers and fighting the political agendas again......

Still the longer this goes on the longer this thread will grow. 😂👍

I agree with T's point about needing experts in their field to be involved in decision-making. But given that experts often disagree and some have agendas, one still needs to be careful when taking on board their advice. 

[BigFish 1,986]

2 hours ago, Mello Yello said:

I wonder how many remainers think the Tories are doing a decent job in the most difficult of circumstances?......

I wonder how anyone can think the Tories are doing a decent job

[BigFish 1,986]

5 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

A very good post and if you read what Cummings has been saying it is pretty much the same as you - the need to reorganise central and local government to bring it out of the 19th Century and make it fit for purpose. 

But just by mentioning Cummings by name it will trigger several posters who are so polarised in their opinions that they won't look beyond the name and are already sharpening their keyboards. We are a polarised society in the UK. We don't come together to create solutions. Our media feeds off of gotcha moments, our systems are adversarial. For many Covid-19 is an opportunity to carry on the Brexit debate. We look to exploit weaknesses instead of building on our strengths. We have created a society where it unwise to speak openly. There is a lot that needs fixing. 

Local government has been absolutely decimated over the last decade and central government has been exerting increasing control. I doubt Cummings has anything useful to add to this, as his time with Gove at Education was part of the problem (e.g. exert control at the centre, destroy local accountability).

Getting this back to Covid if this approach hadn't been taken we would have greater local capability, greater local accountability and it would be better organised.

The disaster regarding testing being a case in point.

[wcorkcanary 4,329]

2 hours ago, Bill said:

It does appear as if the government was lying over the EU equipment deal. And that is the reason 'politics; has become a growing part of this.

If the equipment stuck in Turkey is there due to incompetence, mismanagement then there could be an argument that other governments might have fallen foul of the same problems.

However when decisions on a serious medical matter are taken on the grounds of ideology that is an entirely different matter. More so when misinformation (lies) is/are being spread to try and cover up. It is that cover up that is causing the concern. What else have we been lied to about ?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/eu-turns-up-pressure-on-matt-hancock-over-covid-19-ppe-scheme

and the ever pro EU, Labour tribal Daily Mail adds further to the questions about a cover up

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8244229/Fury-Dominic-Raab-mandarin-claim-EU-procurement-scheme.html

Do give it a rest  Gibberwocky. 

This is a non political response, I agree with most of your politics  but chap, you're  gonna drive yourself round the bend if you keep going with  this. 

Sometimes  less is more.

Aaaaaand  breathe. 

[sonyc 5,492]

Pretty clear tonight after Chris Whitty's comments at today's press conference that social distancing will remain in place for the rest of the calendar year given the potential timescale for any vaccine roll out. This means I believe, there will be no football matches or other sporting events with fans watching until 2021. Anyone else believe the same?

[Barbe bleu 816]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

Pretty clear tonight after Chris Whitty's comments at today's press conference that social distancing will remain in place for the rest of the calendar year given the potential timescale for any vaccine roll out. This means I believe, there will be no football matches or other sporting events with fans watching until 2021. Anyone else believe the same?

I think this was expectation management more than an policy statement.  A lot of people probably think that we are close to eradicating this disease and that we can switch on the 'normal' button.

I dont think that there is any particular magic in the calendar year statement. That said, i'd be really surprised if there is  anything like a full season in 20/21.

[Mello Yello 2,281]

58 minutes ago, BigFish said:

I wonder how anyone can think the Tories are doing a decent job

Well I suppose it's a shame that some other political party isn't in Government, then I could retort "I wonder how anyone can think the (insert political party here) are doing a decent job?".....

But.....We'll never know.....Will we?.....

[sonyc 5,492]

7 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I think this was expectation management more than an policy statement.  A lot of people probably think that we are close to eradicating this disease and that we can switch on the 'normal' button.

I dont think that there is any particular magic in the calendar year statement. That said, i'd be really surprised if there is  anything like a full season in 20/21.

Yes, agree mostly. Yet, his point was made quite emphatically (with even a look toward Raab). Given that the 'science' is advising and guiding this government, I felt it was a strong message.

Interesting too that much more focus on main media news outlets is on Liverpool/AC Madrid as well as Cheltenham. I think sport generally with a participative audience could be a restricted domain, and in place for a much longer time than other measures 

Edited April 22, 2020 by sonyc

[Bill 1,788]

31 minutes ago, wcorkcanary said:

Do give it a rest  Gibberwocky. 

This is a non political response, I agree with most of your politics  but chap, you're  gonna drive yourself round the bend if you keep going with  this. 

Sometimes  less is more.

Aaaaaand  breathe. 

you do seem to be getting yourself a bit worked up

get yourself out for some exercise 🚶‍♂️

[ricardo 7,349]

🚴‍♂️🚴‍♀️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♀️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♀️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♀️😀

[Mello Yello 2,281]

19 minutes ago, ricardo said:

🚴‍♂️🚴‍♀️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♀️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♀️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♀️😀

[BigFish 1,986]

58 minutes ago, Mello Yello said:

Well I suppose it's a shame that some other political party isn't in Government, then I could retort "I wonder how anyone can think the (insert political party here) are doing a decent job?".....

But.....We'll never know.....Will we?.....

That is not really the shame is it?

The real shame is that people have suffered because of government that was too slow to act, failed on testing, failed on PPE and are now just waiting hoping something will turn up because they don't have  a plan.

It is a shame that the country elected a PM who thought the best response to the uncoming crisis was to go on holiday for 12 days in a stately home paid for by the taxpayer, who didn't attend meetings and didn't work weekends.

It is a shame that the government followed "scientific advice" from an unqualified advisor rather than the advice of the WHO.

It is a shame that the country is led by a man who encouraged 250,000 people to gather at the Cheltenham Festival and was too scared to close the pubs in time.

It is a shame that this government voted AGAINST pay rises for frontline NHS staff

It is a shame that this government closed the majority of the UK's testing centres and 17,000 hospital beds

It is a shame that this government abolished nursing burseries and thought it was a good idea to charge nurses £27k

[Mello Yello 2,281]

11 minutes ago, BigFish said:

That is not really the shame is it?

The real shame is that people have suffered because of government that was too slow to act, failed on testing, failed on PPE and are now just waiting hoping something will turn up because they don't have  a plan.

It is a shame that the country elected a PM who thought the best response to the uncoming crisis was to go on holiday for 12 days in a stately home paid for by the taxpayer, who didn't attend meetings and didn't work weekends.

It is a shame that the government followed "scientific advice" from an unqualified advisor rather than the advice of the WHO.

It is a shame that the country is led by a man who encouraged 250,000 people to gather at the Cheltenham Festival and was too scared to close the pubs in time.

It is a shame that this government voted AGAINST pay rises for frontline NHS staff

It is a shame that this government closed the majority of the UK's testing centres and 17,000 hospital beds

It is a shame that this government abolished nursing burseries and thought it was a good idea to charge nurses £27k

Yah, yah absolutely totally agree yah yah.......Let's get Blair back he'll sort it all out.....deffo.....

[sonyc 5,492]

Interesting little video

 

And they are modelling a 30% infection rate by 1st of May with an aim of herd immunity ahead

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by sonyc

[Barbe bleu 816]

29 minutes ago, Mello Yello said:

Yah, yah absolutely totally agree yah yah.......Let's get Blair back he'll sort it all out.....deffo.....

 

43 minutes ago, BigFish said:

That is not really the shame is it?

The real shame is that people have suffered because of government that was too slow to act, failed on testing, failed on PPE and are now just waiting hoping something will turn up because they don't have  a plan.

It is a shame that the country elected a PM who thought the best response to the uncoming crisis was to go on holiday for 12 days in a stately home paid for by the taxpayer, who didn't attend meetings and didn't work weekends.

It is a shame that the government followed "scientific advice" from an unqualified advisor rather than the advice of the WHO.

It is a shame that the country is led by a man who encouraged 250,000 people to gather at the Cheltenham Festival and was too scared to close the pubs in time.

It is a shame that this government voted AGAINST pay rises for frontline NHS staff

It is a shame that this government closed the majority of the UK's testing centres and 17,000 hospital beds

It is a shame that this government abolished nursing burseries and thought it was a good idea to charge nurses £27k

So, some good and some bad then?

[T 190]

Some should be squirming uncomfortably with the following but no doubt there self righteousness will prevail what ever the reality.
 

Years of underinvestment in healthcare has hampered the UK's ability to respond to the coronavirus pandemic, the boss of Roche, one of the world's largest pharmaceutical and diagnostic companies, has told the BBC.

"The real issue here is that the UK has probably not invested enough into healthcare," Severin Schwan, Roche chief executive, told the Newsnight programme in an interview to be aired on Wednesday evening. 

"It really shows up in such a crisis when the system is more stressed."

Roche is a key partner of the government and Public Health England in ramping up testing for Covid19. 

Mr Schwan added: “You can't fix the infrastructure in a couple of weeks. I mean, if there is too little investment over many years into the healthcare system, then it's simply not possible to ramp up as fast as you would wish in such a challenging

[BigFish 1,986]

15 minutes ago, T said:

Some should be squirming uncomfortably with the following but no doubt there self righteousness will prevail what ever the reality.
 

Years of underinvestment in healthcare has hampered the UK's ability to respond to the coronavirus pandemic, the boss of Roche, one of the world's largest pharmaceutical and diagnostic companies, has told the BBC.

"The real issue here is that the UK has probably not invested enough into healthcare," Severin Schwan, Roche chief executive, told the Newsnight programme in an interview to be aired on Wednesday evening. 

"It really shows up in such a crisis when the system is more stressed."

Roche is a key partner of the government and Public Health England in ramping up testing for Covid19. 

Mr Schwan added: “You can't fix the infrastructure in a couple of weeks. I mean, if there is too little investment over many years into the healthcare system, then it's simply not possible to ramp up as fast as you would wish in such a challenging

Same goes for skills, no one seemed to notice that running a health system with 100,000 vacancies left us all vulnerable to a shock like this.

It has now led to the fiasco of the Nightengale Hospital in London. Yes it was stood up in an impressively short time........but there isn't enough staff to have more than 50 patients. So Hancock's glorious success is really another failure

[wcorkcanary 4,329]

2 hours ago, Bill said:

you do seem to be getting yourself a bit worked up

get yourself out for some exercise 🚶‍♂️

Wrong again Gibberwocky.  Cut a few tons of firewood this morning,  had a little chicken soup. Then jogged to the nearest beach, 1.6 km ( well inside our current 2km limit) swam , only a little,  as it was a bit nippy in there and jogged home....feeling fresh! 

Next.

[Indy 3,286]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Interesting little video

 

And they are modelling a 30% infection rate by 1st of May with an aim of herd immunity ahead

 

That’s to sensible for some, for what it’s worth, that’s the way I’d like it here, but not to be.

[JF 694]

9 minutes ago, Indy said:

That’s to sensible for some, for what it’s worth, that’s the way I’d like it here, but not to be.

Wasn’t that the plan that the original model predicted that if we continued down that path we were facing deaths of 250,000?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-uk-250k-deaths-covid19-outbreak-a4388956.html

Edited April 22, 2020 by JF

[Aggy 752]

2 minutes ago, JF said:

Wasn’t that the plan that the original model predicted that if we continued down that path we were facing deaths of 250,000?

Wasn’t 250k if we literally did nothing? Ie; not even social distancing measures such as those shown in the video?

[sonyc 5,492]

3 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Wasn’t 250k if we literally did nothing? Ie; not even social distancing measures such as those shown in the video?

Correct. The Sweden example is not having a full lockdown but following social distancing faithfully. It was never doing nothing. I shared for interest only as it's one way of approaching the issue.

[JF 694]

13 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Wasn’t 250k if we literally did nothing? Ie; not even social distancing measures such as those shown in the video?

I may be wrong but I thought the 250,000 estimate was what made the government move from their original social distancing measures that they had imposed to far stricter ones after the model showed if we continued that was the likely outcome. Also is a damn sight easier I’d imagine  imposing those measures in a country like Sweden who’s entire population is roughly the same a London, also a quick look at deaths shows they are not doing very well at all with nearly 2000 dead, far higher than neighbouring countries 

Edited April 22, 2020 by JF

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, BigFish said:

 

It has now led to the fiasco of the Nightengale Hospital in London. Yes it was stood up in an impressively short time........but there isn't enough staff to have more than 50 patients. So Hancock's glorious success is really another failure

Have the hospitals in London run out of beds for Covid 19 patients?

[sonyc 5,492]

10 minutes ago, JF said:

I may be wrong but I thought the 250,000 estimate was what made the government move from their original social distancing measures that they had imposed to far stricter ones after the model showed if we continued that was the likely outcome. Also is a damn sight easier I’d imagine  imposing those measures in a country like Sweden who’s entire population is roughly the same a London, also a quick look at deaths shows they are not doing very well at all with nearly 2000 dead, far higher than neighbouring countries 

Check the graphs out from yesterday JF. Shows hospitalisations in Stockholm. Their death rates have been higher than Denmark. 

[JF 694]

4 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Check the graphs out from yesterday JF. Shows hospitalisations in Stockholm. Their death rates have been higher than Denmark. 

Yes 384 in Denmark and 1987 in Sweden so seems like a incredibly flawed plan that would have proved catastrophic had it been used here.

[sonyc 5,492]

Different strategies JF. I'm not advocating it but it's useful to consider in relation to the balance of health / economy. Only in time will we know who has managed better.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

4 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Different strategies JF. I'm not advocating it but it's useful to consider in relation to the balance of health / economy. Only in time will we know who has managed better.

The Swedish death rate is higher than the rest of Scandinavia but lower than the UK’s or. France’s, for example. I don’t know if it was the right strategy. It is too early to tell. But if there is such a thing as herd immunity and that is partly why the Swedes have gone down this path it could be in the longer run it saves lives.

[T 190]

There is such a thing as herd immunity through a vaccine or natural heard immunity which would take many years with an infection rate in low single percentage points and a lot of deaths. Meanwhile it is levels of social distancing and test trace and isolate.
 

It is a trade off between lives and the economy and society also depending on local circumstances. There is no absolute right or wrong. You can’t exactly compare the UK and Sweden.  Sweden has inherently more social distancing than the UK and more healthcare provision so what is right for Sweden at a point in time is not right for the UK.  The UK position may well look like Sweden but only when sorted out healthcare provision in terms of PPE test trace and isolate. 
 

Also it is impossible to know for sure which are the right strategies where and when unless you are measuring the impact on a timely basis. Germany is looking to increase the testing capacity from 700k a week to 4.5m a week with a corresponding increase in tracing capacity. The UK is also rightly intending to follow the same strategy. to a lesser extent which is consistently agreed by experts. UK is just not testing and tracing in the community at the moment so not in a position to manage lifting restrictions on a scientific basis. This is all consistent story across reputable media sources  and rationale countries. It is consistently agreed that you need to keep R below 1 to stop any healthcare system becoming overwhelmed. Exactly how and when you do that is open to just based on educated guesses until more data which is why there is general agreement you should lift restrictions gradually while monitoring the effect and that some restrictions will remain for the foreseeable. I’m totally fine with what Hancock and CMO said yesterday. Clearly the UK was not as well prepared and decisive as the likes of Germany and S Korea but the policy of trying to catch up with these countries is correct given the better performance of these countries. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by T