Corona Virus main thread

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

46 minutes ago, T said:

You have to be careful to distinguish cause and effect though.  General view that the better performance is Asia is driven by testing and tracing rather than masks which are only thought to have a marginal effect in a general public setting. Germany has fone a lot better and it doesn't have masks. 

Equally China does have the mask culture but is outside the zone.

[Barbe bleu 823]

52 minutes ago, Trevor Hockey's Beard said:

Didn't they say a while ago that they would not take people from Care Homes into Hospital? Having said that I do know that two residents of my Mum's Care Home have been admitted to the N&N, and tested positive, but they have more residents with symptoms, but no hope of getting them tested.

My Mum has taken a turn for the worse this week, but with no Bloodie testing they don't know what to treat her for. I didn't think I could hate the Tories more, but it turns out that I can.

My understanding is that hospital admissions are continuing in exactly the same way as they were before.   

The fact that your mother has not been sent to hospital could well be a very good sign- she just isn't ill enough to warrant it.

Its obviously a hugely stressful time for you and hopefully it's just making you assume the worst. Ll

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

47 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I am sure they are doing everything they can to get on top of it now but that hardly excuses their governments initial cover up. It immediately puts anything they say under suspicion. If their numbers cannot be trusted it is difficult to construe anything meaningful from them. I prefer to look at the European figures as I feel these are much more likely to be correct.

Perhaps but then you could (or at least I would even if you wouldn't) say exactly the same about the UK government and yet you seem to put great faith in the UK figures - even though independent experts are saying that the UK count is vastly understated and probably only represents around 50% of the true total.

I share your dislike of the totalitarian aspects of the Chinese regime and there is no dispute that they made some very bad mistakes in the early days of this outbreak. But the fact remains that having first messed up they then reacted far more quickly and effectively than many other countries especially two countries that like to think of themselves as beacons of democracy, i.e. the US and the UK.

So it seems to me that as far as this crisis is concerned the decisive factor is not whether a government is totalitarian or democratic but whether it is competent/effective or incompetent/ineffective, and on that basis its pretty clear we have China, South Korea, Singapore, and Germany in the competent/effective group and the US, UK and Italy in the incompetent/ineffective group with the vast majority of countries somewhere in between.

[Van wink 2,994]

Odd then that so many old folk have died in care homes

Edited April 17, 2020 by Van wink

[Indy 3,297]

11 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Odd then that so many old folk have died in care homes

That’s not odd really, is it? Maybe the number is higher than average but pretty sure, old folk die in care homes every day!

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

Just now, Indy said:

That’s not odd really, is it? Maybe the number is higher than average but pretty sure, old folk die in care homes every day!

Not at a rate of a dozen or more at a day in a single home they don't!!

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, Indy said:

That’s not odd really, is it? Maybe the number is higher than average but pretty sure, old folk die in care homes every day!

Not in the numbers we are seeing at the moment, my point was that if they were being admitted to hospital when they were unwell with CV 19, the deaths would be showing up as hospital stats.

[Indy 3,297]

24 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Not in the numbers we are seeing at the moment, my point was that if they were being admitted to hospital when they were unwell with CV 19, the deaths would be showing up as hospital stats.

I don’t argue with the numbers as I said, but lots people in care homes have at least one serious condition, so any spread would certainly take outa higher %.

But surely the question should be as above lots of you guys have been saying that the spread is less than expected so how is it getting into care homes as we’re in lockdown? So assuming those who work there are following the rules how is it getting into care homes?

Edited April 17, 2020 by Indy

[Herman 9,756]

The staff aren't getting tested and they have little protective equipment. It was probably brought into the homes by visiting family members and then spread quite easily to some of the most vulnerable people in the country. This is not pointing fingers at the staff as I feel they were completely forgotten about, Out of sight, out of mind seemed to be the policy.

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

54 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Perhaps but then you could (or at least I would even if you wouldn't) say exactly the same about the UK government and yet you seem to put great faith in the UK figures - even though independent experts are saying that the UK count is vastly understated and probably only represents around 50% of the true total.

I share your dislike of the totalitarian aspects of the Chinese regime and there is no dispute that they made some very bad mistakes in the early days of this outbreak. But the fact remains that having first messed up they then reacted far more quickly and effectively than many other countries especially two countries that like to think of themselves as beacons of democracy, i.e. the US and the UK.

So it seems to me that as far as this crisis is concerned the decisive factor is not whether a government is totalitarian or democratic but whether it is competent/effective or incompetent/ineffective, and on that basis its pretty clear we have China, South Korea, Singapore, and Germany in the competent/effective group and the US, UK and Italy in the incompetent/ineffective group with the vast majority of countries somewhere in between.

Yes CM. Many of the points I was trying to make. Frankly the Chinese numbers stack up as well as any and tally with that antigen data that was also posted for Wuhan (that would indicate it spread in totality far less than we have now in in the Uk hence lower total deaths). You dont have to like the regime to treat its data as largely factual after all it's now under the spot-light. To disregard it simply because of past errors is absurd.

I do think Italy and Spain have also been largely competent. Both had little warning and reacted as swiftly and deeply as possible.

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Indy 3,297]

2 minutes ago, Herman said:

The staff aren't getting tested and they have little protective equipment. It was probably brought into the homes by visiting family members and then spread quite easily to some of the most vulnerable people in the country. This is not pointing fingers at the staff as I feel they were completely forgotten about, Out of sight, out of mind seemed to be the policy.

Nah we’ve been in isolation and lockdown for 4 weeks, I can accept this for the first couple weeks but not continuing now! If the spread is as low as 4% of the population than all these care homes wouldn’t have such issues would they? Makes my think it might be higher Herman.

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

2 minutes ago, Indy said:

Nah we’ve been in isolation and lockdown for 4 weeks, I can accept this for the first couple weeks but not continuing now! If the spread is as low as 4% of the population than all these care homes wouldn’t have such issues would they? Makes my think it might be higher Herman.

The problem is Indy that care homes by necessity are hands on and have lots of staff and services. 4% is 1 in 25 staff infected on average. Easy to see how it can find a way in and further infect very vulnerable people.

[Van wink 2,994]

23 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The problem is Indy that care homes by necessity are hands on and have lots of staff and services. 4% is 1 in 25 staff infected on average. Easy to see how it can find a way in and further infect very vulnerable people.

Easy person to person spread in a confined environment.

[Aggy 755]

3 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

We are also assuming that if you are immune it is in the form of antibodies.  Could it be that the infected have some form of immune memory but not in antibody form?

Having spent most of my school biology lessons chatting about football in the back row :

(1) is there another form? 

(2) if so, how does it impact the idea of a vaccine being developed for coronavirus? Don’t vaccines work based on antibody immunity? 

[Barbe bleu 823]

51 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Having spent most of my school biology lessons chatting about football in the back row :

(1) is there another form? 

(2) if so, how does it impact the idea of a vaccine being developed for coronavirus? Don’t vaccines work based on antibody immunity? 

If knowledge of these things is measured on a scale of 0-100 I'm a firm 18 I reckon.

On that basis....

My limited understanding is that the adaptive immune system has two main cell families T and B.  T cells kill or target our cells that have gone rogue (infected by a virus, cancerous etc). B cells produce antibodies that have lots of functions mainly based around  them. Ring a real nuisance to the invader.  Both families create memory cells that allow us to mount a far better defence against a pathogen than the first time we encountered it.

I have absolutely no idea if an infection always creates a memory in both cell families or if antibodies can always be detected in the blood.  In other words I know just about enough to wonder if we can be immune (because we have a highly tuned T cell reaponse ready to go) and still have no antibodies for a test to detect.

The pink un forum is probably not the best place to have these discussions admittedly.

[T 190]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/serology-testing.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

more on antibody Tests above. The CDC makes clear that infection tests forthcoming in US but takes time for body to produce antibodies. So yes as expected the number infected higher than confirmed cases. Santa Cruz found 3pc. I read that was based on a sample from face book Volunteers so not A True Random Sample. It would be interesting to see the results for Munich as it is a hot spot and was a true random sample. Not sure why not reported yet but Santa Cruz again suggests low single percentage no herd immunity any time soon and something we will have to learn to live with for a while. 
 

So for Santa Cruz volunteers found on Facebook came to the laboratory. Munich is a complete computer generated random sample where testers come with the police to the door. Very few people are refusing but obviously this completely random process takes longer. 

Edited April 18, 2020 by T

[T 190]

10 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

If knowledge of these things is measured on a scale of 0-100 I'm a firm 18 I reckon.

On that basis....

My limited understanding is that the adaptive immune system has two main cell families T and B.  T cells kill or target our cells that have gone rogue (infected by a virus, cancerous etc). B cells produce antibodies that have lots of functions mainly based around  them. Ring a real nuisance to the invader.  Both families create memory cells that allow us to mount a far better defence against a pathogen than the first time we encountered it.

I have absolutely no idea if an infection always creates a memory in both cell families or if antibodies can always be detected in the blood.  In other words I know just about enough to wonder if we can be immune (because we have a highly tuned T cell reaponse ready to go) and still have no antibodies for a test to detect.

The pink un forum is probably not the best place to have these discussions admittedly.

The numbers I get as part of my study and work but 18/100 is a lot more than me on the medical side as not studied much biology or medicine so good reminder to go to reliable sources who understand these things and explain it clearly. 

[Bill 1,788]

10 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

If knowledge of these things is measured on a scale of 0-100 I'm a firm 18 I reckon.

On that basis....

My limited understanding is that the adaptive immune system has two main cell families T and B.  T cells kill or target our cells that have gone rogue (infected by a virus, cancerous etc). B cells produce antibodies that have lots of functions mainly based around  them. Ring a real nuisance to the invader.  Both families create memory cells that allow us to mount a far better defence against a pathogen than the first time we encountered it.

I have absolutely no idea if an infection always creates a memory in both cell families or if antibodies can always be detected in the blood.  In other words I know just about enough to wonder if we can be immune (because we have a highly tuned T cell reaponse ready to go) and still have no antibodies for a test to detect.

The pink un forum is probably not the best place to have these discussions admittedly.

I dunno, that was quite an infornative read

[Van wink 2,994]

Pretty worrying stuff if this proves to be correct. If having had CV19 and recovered doesnt give you immunity then things really are looking grim. Indications of reinfection have been coming from Asia for some time but its not had much press coverage here. 

"There is currently no evidence to support the belief that people who have recovered from coronavirus then have immunity, the WHO said.
 

Speaking at a press conference in Geneva, Dr Maria van Kerkhove said: "There are a lot of countries that are suggesting using rapid diagnostic serological tests to be able to capture what they think will be a measure of immunity.
 

"Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serological test can show that an individual has immunity or is protected from reinfection."

Edited April 18, 2020 by Van wink

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Trouble is VW, is it the test that isn't correct to confirm or is it the virus? That makes it doubling worrying when the science isn't sure. There is nothing worse than indecision.

[Van wink 2,994]

11 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Trouble is VW, is it the test that isn't correct to confirm or is it the virus? That makes it doubling worrying when the science isn't sure. There is nothing worse than indecision.

Even if the test is accurate, whats really important is whether immunity is developed following infection, and if thats not the case then the test will be of no value in indicating who is safe to go back to work. But as you say, if the tests are a bit dodgy too then its a double whammy.

Edited April 18, 2020 by Van wink

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

4 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Pretty worrying stuff if this proves to be correct. If having had CV19 and recovered doesnt give you immunity then things really are looking grim. Indications of reinfection have been coming from Asia for some time but its not had much press coverage here. 

"There is currently no evidence to support the belief that people who have recovered from coronavirus then have immunity, the WHO said.
 

Speaking at a press conference in Geneva, Dr Maria van Kerkhove said: "There are a lot of countries that are suggesting using rapid diagnostic serological tests to be able to capture what they think will be a measure of immunity.
 

"Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serological test can show that an individual has immunity or is protected from reinfection."

 

VW - I wouldn't read too much into that.

It is your immune system that 'clears' the virus once you've had it - i.e. you can I think of yourself as being continuously reinfected and gaining immunity when you have the infection until your immune system eventually wins out.

Your immune system will then as with all viruses make a note of that particular 'virus' and generally react far far more quickly if it sees it again - conventional 'immunity'

Now the viruses can mutate like a common cold or flu (also coronaviruses) and keep changing their tags - and the immune system has to largely 'start over' next time. The immune systems can also I think eventually 'forget' or themselves become damaged.

However, the lack of current evidence as per WHO is far more likely given the limited serology testing to date to be down to very few people who we know have had the virus, truly cleared the virus and the been reinfected. It far more likely that there are false positives / negatives at work here it the testing!

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence!

More testing and statistics will eventually give us a better insight. 

For what it's worth I think you will gain some limited immunity for a few years (or this season's variety) anyway and it may well eventually become recognized as just one of those nastier but expected and generally recoverable illnesses rather like a bad bout of flu which we all sadly get from time to time (and yes much worse than cold).

[Van wink 2,994]

YF

"However, the lack of current evidence as per WHO is far more likely given the limited serology testing to date to be down to very few people who we know have had the virus, truly cleared the virus and the been reinfected. It far more likely that there are false positives / negatives at work here it the testing!"

What has been observed I believe is cases where people with CV19 have been admitted to hospital treated, recovered, tested negative, been released and then gone down with CV19 again. What I believe you are saying is that in these circumstance they may not in fact have made a full recovery first time round and the negative test may have been a false negative? Thats certainly is a possible explanation.

Absolutely agree that more testing will give a better picture, we are still dealing with a relatively small set of data with a lot of potential errors.

Edited April 18, 2020 by Van wink

[sonyc 5,511]

I've read before (sorry I cannot be exact for posters who like sources for everything) that there are 106/107 types of colds/flu that one can catch. The viruses and strains circulate to lesser and greater degrees. As one ages, it is usual to catch less colds because of previous exposure (which one's system recognises). Therefore when you do get an infection at an older age, it hits hard because your system has not 'recorded' it. Influenza therefore is serious as one ages given its potency. The same applies to pneumonia which is often life threatening for so many older people in ICUs. 

It appears that vaccination is the only solution and that with so low infection rates so far, immunity in the community would take years and years or as Yellow Fever suggests one might have a temporary immunity.

Unlike Barbe bleu, I would give myself far less than 18/100 for medical knowledge. Just an opinion.

Edited April 18, 2020 by sonyc

[Barbe bleu 823]

10 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Even if the test is accurate, whats really important is whether immunity is developed following infection, and if thats not the case then the test will be of no value in indicating who is safe to go back to work.

The ultimate pessimist!

I'll bet a dollar that enough people develop an enduring immune memory that with enough worldwide will and resources we can vaccinate this strain right out.

One thing I will agree on though (and for the sake of bill confirmation bias is at play) antibody testing will not play a major role in our slow path back to normality.

[sonyc 5,511]

3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

YF

"However, the lack of current evidence as per WHO is far more likely given the limited serology testing to date to be down to very few people who we know have had the virus, truly cleared the virus and the been reinfected. It far more likely that there are false positives / negatives at work here it the testing!"

What has been observed I believe is cases where people with CV19 have been admitted to hospital treated, recovered, tested negative, been released and then gone down with CV19 again. What I believe you are saying is that in these circumstance they may not in fact have made a full recovery first time round and the negative test may have been a false negative? Thats certainly is a possible explanation.

Absolutely agree that more testing will give a better picture, we are still dealing with a relatively small set of data with a lot of potential errors.

I think this makes sense. It seems this virus gets 'deep' into your system. And testing indeed will provide much more data.

[Herman 9,756]

 

[T 190]

35 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Pretty worrying stuff if this proves to be correct. If having had CV19 and recovered doesnt give you immunity then things really are looking grim. Indications of reinfection have been coming from Asia for some time but its not had much press coverage here. 

"There is currently no evidence to support the belief that people who have recovered from coronavirus then have immunity, the WHO said.
 

Speaking at a press conference in Geneva, Dr Maria van Kerkhove said: "There are a lot of countries that are suggesting using rapid diagnostic serological tests to be able to capture what they think will be a measure of immunity.
 

"Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serological test can show that an individual has immunity or is protected from reinfection."

They are saying there is no evidence   They are not saying there isn’t immunity   It will take time to know naturally S Korea reported some people coming back but when they checked they think is was the same Infection.  flaring up again in a few people according to local doctor.   The General expectation is there will be immunity but how much and how long is not known yet. 

[SHRIMPER 328]

15 hours ago, Herman said:

The staff aren't getting tested and they have little protective equipment. It was probably brought into the homes by visiting family members and then spread quite easily to some of the most vulnerable people in the country. This is not pointing fingers at the staff as I feel they were completely forgotten about, Out of sight, out of mind seemed to be the policy.

This far in and our girl still has not been tested and she is a front line nurse..In London

Edited April 18, 2020 by SHRIMPER

[Van wink 2,994]

46 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

 

I'll bet a dollar that enough people develop an enduring immune memory that with enough worldwide will and resources we can vaccinate this strain right out.

 

 

I hope you are right, I think you probably are, but of course no evidence to support your view with this particular virus