Corona Virus main thread

[sonyc 5,511]

Just a personal question Bb, have you got French ancestry or have affinity to France given your username? If I'm rude asking feel free to ignore (though I'm curious because of your use of bleu rather than bleue I must admit).

[Herman 9,756]

This is a tad concerning.

https://www.ft.com/content/91dea18f-ad0e-4dcb-98c3-de836b1ba79b

[Essjayess 307]

41 minutes ago, T said:

No. I know some lab antibody testing has been taking place but not seen results other than Dutch. and quiet on test kits. I hope so too as will be part of solution until vaccine. Hopefully in the next few weeks. 

The Public Health England Serology Antibody tests are classed by PHE as high accuracy.  The total of these tests done was reported on Pillar 4 of the DHSC site on Wednesday as 3.001. Today it read as 3,180, so its off to a slow start, but a start nevertheless.

[Barbe bleu 823]

2 hours ago, sonyc said:

Just a personal question Bb, have you got French ancestry or have affinity to France given your username? If I'm rude asking feel free to ignore (though I'm curious because of your use of bleu rather than bleue I must admit).

The lack of an e is an corrected typo.

Barbe  bleue comes from a book I was reading at the time of naming if I recall correctly.  Admittedly though the most likely candidate was a tintin book

Edited April 16, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[sonyc 5,511]

9 minutes ago, Herman said:

This is a tad concerning.

https://www.ft.com/content/91dea18f-ad0e-4dcb-98c3-de836b1ba79b

I made this point in a previous post Herman (can only read the headline). I would have felt that we would close or protect our borders (of course we've heard similar phrases like that before), especially during lockdown but linked to a testing/quarantine process?

[T 190]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

If the R0 really was 1.1 it would take two months for a single person to infect 3-4 others (assuming 5 infectious days) and that we get herd immunity at 1% recovered/vaccinated.   This doesnt sound right to me and it certainly wouldnt overwhelm the german health system.

 

I suspect that something has been lost in translation unfortunately 

  It was also with English sub titles on the BBC live reporting and I can assure you the translation was correct. I recall she said 1.1 would overwhelm the system only in September and you have to remember that it is multiplying from the current number of people that are infected. 

[T 190]

29 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

The Public Health England Serology Antibody tests are classed by PHE as high accuracy.  The total of these tests done was reported on Pillar 4 of the DHSC site on Wednesday as 3.001. Today it read as 3,180, so its off to a slow start, but a start nevertheless.

Thanks. Yes this is the testing done elsewhere. You will not need a massive sample to get a good estimate. The CMO sounded as if they are close to a rough estimate and they will have a range in mind already but want a more reliable estimate before going public so expect we will hear soon 

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

1 minute ago, T said:

Thanks. Yes this is the testing done elsewhere. You will not need a massive sample to get a good estimate. The CMO sounded as if they are close to a rough estimate and they will have a range in mind already but want a more reliable estimate before going public so expect we will hear soon 

It's what's been so desperately needed to make any plans at all!

[Ian 1,129]

Extremely interesting.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/six-questions-that-neil-ferguson-should-be-asked/

[T 190]

I think it will confirm where we stand but suspect we also need the rapid testing kits which are proving harder to develop a reliable test than expected to help with restriction relaxation. 

[Molly Windley 76]

I will not copy paste the full Wikipedia page  for 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic In Taiwan but post the link ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Taiwan ) and one of the more interesting passages.

Please note the date and that the CCP blocks Taiwan from being a member of WHO.

Preventive measures

Before first case reported

On 31 December 2019, Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC) implemented inspection measures for inbound flights from Wuhan, China in response to reports of an unidentified outbreak.^[39] The passengers of all such flights were inspected by health officials before disembarking.^[39] A six-year-old passenger who transferred in Wuhan and developed a fever was closely monitored by CDC.^[40] At this time, there were alleged to be 27 cases of the new pneumonia in Wuhan.^[40]

By 5 January 2020, the Taiwan CDC began monitoring all individuals who had travelled to Wuhan within fourteen days and exhibited a fever or symptoms of upper respiratory tract infections. These people were screened for 26 known pathogens, including SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome, and those testing positive were quarantined.^[8]

 

^tEdit - forgot to say that as of 13 April, there have only been 395 confirmed Coronairus cases, including six deaths in Taiwan

Edited April 16, 2020 by Molly Windley

[T 190]

5 minutes ago, Ian said:

Extremely interesting.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/six-questions-that-neil-ferguson-should-be-asked/

That is really an appalling Tory mouth piece fake news hatchet job using the Trump distract from your own failings play book. Either that or they have no understanding whatsoever.   I’m very surprised you fell for such a blatant piece of misinformation. 
 

It is difficult to predict at the early stages and you are just giving a potential range of values. It really is an appalling cheap piece of so called journalism which unfortunately has become acceptable in the UK and the US. Ferguson is aligned with Germany and what the rest of Europe is saying. 

[T 190]

It seems a lot of people have not read the warnings of dangerous fake news. I think it was one of the Scandinavian countries that has recognising fake news in the education syllabus. UK needs it too. 

[Molly Windley 76]

12 minutes ago, T said:

It seems a lot of people have not read the warnings of dangerous fake news. I think it was one of the Scandinavian countries that has recognising fake news in the education syllabus. UK needs it too. 

But post modernist teachers also tell children that there are no objective truths, only personal subjective ones

[T 190]

Coronavirus misinformation is flooding the internet and experts are calling on the public to practise "information hygiene". What can you do to stop the spread of bad information? 
1. Stop and think
You want to help family and friends and keep them in the loop. So when you receive fresh advice - whether by email, WhatsApp, Facebook or Twitter - you might quickly forward it on to them. 
But experts say the number one thing you can do to halt misinformation is to simply stop and think.
If you have any doubts, pause, and check it out further. 
2. Check your source
Before you forward it on, ask some basic questions about where the information comes from.
It's a big red flag if the source is "a friend of a friend" or "my aunt's colleague's neighbour". 
We recently tracked how a misleading post from someone's "uncle with a master's degree" went viral. 
Some of the details in the post were accurate - some versions, for example, encouraged hand washing to slow the spread of the virus. But other details were potentially harmful, making unproven claims about how to diagnose the illness.
"The most reliable sources of information remain public health bodies like the NHS, the World Health Organisation, or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the USA." says Claire Milne, deputy editor of UK-based fact-checking organisation Full Fact.
Experts are not infallible. But they are much more reliable than a stranger's distant relative on WhatsApp.
■   More coronavirus myths to ignore
■   Who do you trust for health advice?
3. Could it be a fake?
Appearances can be deceptive. 
It is possible to impersonate official accounts and authorities, including BBC News and the government. Screenshots can also be changed to make it look like information has come from a trusted public body. 
Check known and verified accounts and websites. If you can't easily find the information, it might be a hoax. And if a post, video or a link looks fishy - it probably is. 
Capital letters and mismatched fonts are something fact-checkers use as an indicator a post might be misleading, according to Claire Milne from Full Fact.
4. Unsure whether it's true? Don't share
Don't forward things on "just in case" they might be true. You might be doing more harm than good.
Often we post things into places where we know there are experts - like doctors or medical professionals. That might be OK, but make sure you're very clear about your doubts. And beware - that photo or text you share might later be stripped of its context. 
5. Check each fact, individually
There's a voice note that has been circulating on WhatsApp. The person speaking in the note says she's translating advice from a "colleague who has a friend" working at a hospital. It's been sent to the BBC by dozens of people around the world. 
But it's a mix of accurate and inaccurate advice.
When you get sent long lists of advice, it's easy to believe everything in them just because you know for certain that one of the tips (say, about hand washing) is true.
But that's not always the case.
■   Italy sees rapid spread of fake news
■   What misinformation has spread in Africa?
6. Beware emotional posts
It's the stuff that gets us fearful, angry, anxious, or joyful that tends to really go viral. 
"Fear is one of the biggest drivers that allows misinformation to thrive," says Claire Wardle of First Draft, an organisation that helps journalists tackle online misinformation.
Urgent calls for action are designed to ramp up anxiety - so be careful.
"People want to help their loved ones stay safe, so when they see 'Tips for preventing the virus!' or 'Take this health supplement!' people want to do whatever they can to help," she says.
■   How bad information goes viral
7. Think about biases
Are you sharing something because you know it's true - or just because you agree with it?
Carl Miller, research director of the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media at think tank Demos, says we're more likely to share posts that reinforce our existing beliefs.
"It's when we're angrily nodding our head that we're most vulnerable," he says. "That's when, above everything else, we just need to slow down everything that we do online."
Learn more about media literacy:
■   BBC Academy: Beyond Fake News
■   BBC Bitesize: Fact or Fake
■   BBC Young Reporter
Have you seen misleading information - or something you have doubts about? Email us.
With additional reporting from BBC Monitoring 
Follow BBC Trending on Twitter @BBCtrending, find us on Facebook or subscribe to the BBC Trending podcast.  All our stories are at bbc.com/trending.

 

[Aggy 755]

7 minutes ago, Molly Windley said:

But post modernist teachers also tell children that there are no objective truths, only personal subjective ones

Not sure why you started that with “but”. If there is only subjective truth then you need to be able to assess everything and make your own educated decisions. Being able to identify which sources are more reliable or less reliable is an essential part of being able to do so.

[Barbe bleu 823]

1 hour ago, T said:

  It was also with English sub titles on the BBC live reporting and I can assure you the translation was correct. I recall she said 1.1 would overwhelm the system only in September and you have to remember that it is multiplying from the current number of people that are infected. 

Ah ok.  Suspect they were saying that if R crept up to 1.1 it would be a growing issue rather than R0 was 1.1.

[Molly Windley 76]

23 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Not sure why you started that with “but”. If there is only subjective truth then you need to be able to assess everything and make your own educated decisions. Being able to identify which sources are more reliable or less reliable is an essential part of being able to do so.

But, I was quoting post modernist theory which does not trouble itself with logic, facts or reliable sources

 

 

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Molly Windley

[Bill 1,788]

oh dear, the numpties won't like this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-52287761/coronavirus-should-i-wear-a-mask-to-stop-the-virus

visited Aldi this evening - the security guard who I usually have a joke with didn't have his mask on - I had called him Hannibal Lecter last time

it appears a nurse told him the other day that he should get everyone entering the shop to use the sanitiser they use to clean the trolley handles, to clean your hands before and after you leave the shop, they now use a trolly with four hand pump bottles available

she also had a look at his mask and said that won't stop anything

......oddly enough they had ran out of garlic cloves when I looked, thankfully I still had my wooden cross made out of lollipop sticks.....and the budgie mirror I got off Ebay

so with the medieval chant I am learning  I feel quite safe now

 

 

[Mark .Y. 352]

11 hours ago, Bill said:

i believe it is the strategy the government have been told to follow - after the disasterous 'herd imminisation' fiasco

Where there was not enough resources to cope - and still not, hence the current delay

To talk about 'rising slightly' is to completely ignore  the reason why so many temporary hospitals have been built - even then the London one at excel has few patients because they is neither the staff nor equipment to cope with any more admissions

A shameful state of affairs, whatever weasel words are used to try to gloss over the frightening reality

"Weasel words"..........what on earth are you talking about ?  Are you trying to make this political or something ?

The reason the Nightingale at Excel has few patients is because there is sufficient capacity in the London hospitals, only the less frail were going to be transferred anyway, but the increase in ICU beds in the other hospitals has provided enough "headroom" to be able to cope, evidenced here :

ICU availability in London

Now, before we go any further, will you admit your statement about the NIghtingale at Excel is wrong ?

 

[Herman 9,756]

Robert Peston has an interesting report on the Nightingale hospitals. Worth a read of his twitter feed. 

[Mark .Y. 352]

8 hours ago, T said:

That is really an appalling Tory mouth piece fake news hatchet job using the Trump distract from your own failings play book. Either that or they have no understanding whatsoever.   I’m very surprised you fell for such a blatant piece of misinformation. 
 

It is difficult to predict at the early stages and you are just giving a potential range of values. It really is an appalling cheap piece of so called journalism which unfortunately has become acceptable in the UK and the US. Ferguson is aligned with Germany and what the rest of Europe is saying. 

Apart from the Netherlands and Sweden (and a few other smaller countries such as Croatia, Slovakia etc)  😉

[Mark .Y. 352]

16 minutes ago, Herman said:

Robert Peston has an interesting report on the Nightingale hospitals. Worth a read of his twitter feed. 

Yes, I had seen that admission criteria on the HSJ website Herman.

It does make some sense in that you would want to keep the very sickest people in the hospitals where you have the full suite of medical equipment. And I believe that was mentioned some time ago but probably got a bit lost. The Nightingales seem to be much more about treating the lesser affected and those who are in the recovery phase to offload the main NHS hospitals, thereby allowing them to concentrate on the worst affected.

Fortunately, they haven't been required so far, as the ICU capability in the main hospitals has coped.

Let's hope it remains that way.

[T 190]

8 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Ah ok.  Suspect they were saying that if R crept up to 1.1 it would be a growing issue rather than R0 was 1.1.

Correct. May have have got lost in smartphone typing   She was explaining the impact of lifting restrictions. On BBC live they estimated it was 3 in Germany before restrictions and is now 0.7 similar to what UK saying of 0.5 to 1 with restrictions. The message is that restrictions are working and you have to be careful lifting them as you easily get into rises that overwhelm the health service remembering you now have a larger infection base then at the start. 

[Mark .Y. 352]

In a world full of gloom at the moment, I liked this quote :

 

This crisis has provided out leaders with the unique opportunity to make every possible governing mistake.

They have not let us down.

 

😂

[T 190]

11 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Apart from the Netherlands and Sweden (and a few other smaller countries such as Croatia, Slovakia etc)  😉

I think that the R figures I posted for Germany demonstrate the catastrophic difference between no restrictions and lockdown. The aim everywhere is to at least keep within capacity. Lifting restrictions will cause covid 19 deaths which everywhere is balance against the impact of restrictions. If you are saying there are questions about the exact extent and timing of restrictions then I would completely agree. That is certainly not an exact science which is why a gradual step by step release makes sense depending on local circumstances such as capacity and population density. 

[T 190]

So update this morning in Germany. as comparison. Currently R is 0.7. At 1.1 system overwhelmed in October. 1.2 in July and 1.3 in June. The rate of increase will be naturally offset by Increasing natural immunity. The plan is to substantially expand testing capacity so you can trace and isolate much more locally be eg workplace and school. Something like 5 test and trace staff for every 20,000 people planned 

[Mark .Y. 352]

40 minutes ago, T said:

I think that the R figures I posted for Germany demonstrate the catastrophic difference between no restrictions and lockdown. The aim everywhere is to at least keep within capacity. Lifting restrictions will cause covid 19 deaths which everywhere is balance against the impact of restrictions. If you are saying there are questions about the exact extent and timing of restrictions then I would completely agree. That is certainly not an exact science which is why a gradual step by step release makes sense depending on local circumstances such as capacity and population density. 

I do understand all that you are saying T, and had already heard Merkel's address.

I suppose I could throw a bit of a discussion point in here.

The predictions Merkel has made are hypothetical ? I know there is science behind the infection rate spread but how many people need to get the virus to overwhelm the health system depends on the percentage of those who get serious symptoms and I'm not sure we have an accurate percentage figure for that.  Especially given that a lot of the most vulnerable have already passed away (feels a very cold thing to say 😥) and coming out of lockdown you would make provision to keep the vulnerable protected as much as possible.

To be clear, I'm not against the slower move out of restrictions, I can certainly see why you would want to err on the side of safety, no doubt. I guess the bit I still don't understand is why other countries are not as tightly locked down as the UK and don't seem to have any worse a problem. These countries are providing factual evidence, not theories or results of running models - and yet they don't ever seem to get a mention.

[Mark .Y. 352]

From the BBC website.......... this makes a great deal of sense to me 🙂

 

Leading scientists to begin unprecedented investigation

Pallab Ghosh

Science correspondent, BBC News

The Royal Society is to begin an urgent scientific investigation into ways of ending the coronavirus pandemic.

An expert panel will assess all the available science and lessons learned from other countries to provide advice in the next few days and weeks on how the current lockdown measures might be eased.

This is an unprecedented investigation for an unprecedented crisis.

Normally these kinds of analyses take months, if not years. This one will publish its findings to the public online shortly after the experts come to their conclusions.

In the coming weeks, they will aim to provide an assessment on the use of masks, whether the virus is less dangerous in the summer, and also to attempt to determine the impact of allowing children to go back to school. It will also look into the various options for safely easing social distancing measures.

The publication of its findings in the days and weeks to come means that there will be a public discussion about how lockdown measures might be lifted - even if the government isn’t yet ready to set out its ideas.

[Ld-99 1]

7 hours ago, Bill said:

oh dear, the numpties won't like this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-52287761/coronavirus-should-i-wear-a-mask-to-stop-the-virus

visited Aldi this evening - the security guard who I usually have a joke with didn't have his mask on - I had called him Hannibal Lecter last time

it appears a nurse told him the other day that he should get everyone entering the shop to use the sanitiser they use to clean the trolley handles, to clean your hands before and after you leave the shop, they now use a trolly with four hand pump bottles available

she also had a look at his mask and said that won't stop anything

......oddly enough they had ran out of garlic cloves when I looked, thankfully I still had my wooden cross made out of lollipop sticks.....and the budgie mirror I got off Ebay

so with the medieval chant I am learning  I feel quite safe now

 

 

Wheres Karl Pilkingtons ""Bullsh*t Man" when you need him?