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14 minutes ago, Chumino said:

I have a very high up source in the Spanish health system, I see interior ministry figures and he tells me the truth at ground level. 

Rightio then. 

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1 minute ago, Chumino said:

Go fry your brain. 

In this case a tin-foil (ally will do) hat is most definitely recommended for you!

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3 hours ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

Here's an interesting graph I've just seen. Does this mean that the UK's curve will start to flatten very soon?

FB_IMG_1586255735848.jpg

Probably. The US and UK trends are now the outliers on this chart, but the US is a blend of two opposing trends. States like Washington, Oregan and California, plus in the last few days New York - which has been the epicenter of the virus - have started to follow the other country curves, but other States like Michigan, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana are going straight up. What’s the difference? Primarily when they implemented social distancing. 
 

So give the UK 30 days and you should see that show up in the analysis. But IMO the stats that are most relevant are hospital admissions, hospital discharges, and deaths. Number of cases is too often driven by non-availability of tests so it’s almost irrelevant to report that once you know where the virus is geographically, and what % of the population will need to be hospitalized. 
 

Where testing will need to shift to is “proving” that workers are no longer “at risk” or “infected / infectious” That’s an economic recovery issue more than anything else so can wait a little while, but this testing will have to be on a massive scale unless society will accept randomized testing in the same way we accept randomized voter polling. 

Edited by Surfer
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29 minutes ago, Chumino said:

I have a very high up source in the Spanish health system, I see interior ministry figures and he tells me the truth at ground level. 

So what pandemic was 4g responsible for?

And 3g?

This is total nonsense isn't  it?

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35 minutes ago, ricardo said:

So what pandemic was 4g responsible for?

And 3g?

This is total nonsense isn't  it?

Given that cases are prevalent in places that are nowhere close to 5g technology, I think it’s safe to say. This is David Icke territory.

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

So what pandemic was 4g responsible for?

And 3g?

This is total nonsense isn't  it?

Yep, dangerous nonsense to boot. 

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1 minute ago, Herman said:

Yep, dangerous nonsense to boot. 

I will make the tentative siggestion then that Spanish Flu was due to putting the clocks forward😉

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19 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I will make the tentative siggestion then that Spanish Flu was due to putting the clocks forward😉

I heard it was from a dodgy batch of paella.🤢

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I have it  on good authority from someone at Chatham House ( look it up, if you dont know what they do) that there is no way 5g is responsible for anything.....except faster broadband.

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2 hours ago, Surfer said:

Rightio then. 

I have no reason to lie. I'm not a polotician. I did say a while back Spain would have have it worse than Italy. How did I know. Hmm. Jog on. 

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36 minutes ago, Herman said:

Yep, dangerous nonsense to boot. 

I'm sorry for your ignorance. Don't miss the news. Suck it up. 

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

So what pandemic was 4g responsible for?

And 3g?

This is total nonsense isn't  it?

Unfortunately it's not. 

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13 minutes ago, wcorkcanary said:

I have it  on good authority from someone at Chatham House ( look it up, if you dont know what they do) that there is no way 5g is responsible for anything.....except faster broadband.

Wow, steady on. Based on US experience, I am not sure I would go that far....  ( personal experience ... bit of a marketing scam so far) 

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2 minutes ago, Chumino said:

Best you educate yourself tw**. 

Hmm. Another example of the failure of Care in the Community. Consider yourself ignored.

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6 minutes ago, Surfer said:

Wow, steady on. Based on US experience, I am not sure I would go that far....  ( personal experience ... bit of a marketing scam so far) 

Please expand , would love to see evidence. 

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28 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

Hmm. Another example of the failure of Care in the Community. Consider yourself ignored.

Less said the better about 'It' I think. Thx.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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Interesting new app now available in some locations. One of the big problems we hear regularly on the UK briefings is the delay between actions and cases, admissions and deaths so you can‘t understand what is happening locally on a real time basis  This health authority app anonymously takes your postcode and your fitness tracker data. It obviously doesn’t know if you have covid 19 obviously but it does know if you have elevated resting heart rate and if someone is training less than normal. Therefore by tracking a sample of the population you have an early idea of how many people are sick and where to give an early warning of outbreaks which will help manage restrictions and resources. Cheap and clever. Came out of Computer programming online competition to see who could come up with the most useful app. 

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What on earth has happened with France's reported numbers today? 1400+ deaths and 11000 new cases? Must be either a new way of reporting (eg. including community) or a one off blip? Huge increase.

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17 minutes ago, sonyc said:

What on earth has happened with France's reported numbers today? 1400+ deaths and 11000 new cases? Must be either a new way of reporting (eg. including community) or a one off blip? Huge increase.

I think they are including care homes etc, not just hospital. I believe all other countries are hospital only but not entirely sure.

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9 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Would be really good to see a bit more emphasis placed on recovery rates. 

If it is really taking up to two weeks to report deaths to the co ordinating authority I cannot see recovery details being released anytime soon

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10 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

If it is really taking up to two weeks to report deaths to the co ordinating authority I cannot see recovery details being released anytime soon

We are getting thousands of admissions a day though aren't we, presumably many of those recover without the need for intensive care and are discharged, but I take your point on time lag.

Edited by Van wink

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3 hours ago, Herman said:

I heard it was from a dodgy batch of paella.🤢

Funny enough not really sure why they dubbed it Spanish flu when I believe it started in the heartland of the USA in a chicken & duck farm from a young man who caught it from a duck then conscription meant he spread it through his camp then got posted along with others to Europe. So American flu would be more apt! Might be wrong but sure I read or saw this recently.

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18 minutes ago, Indy said:

Funny enough not really sure why they dubbed it Spanish flu when I believe it started in the heartland of the USA in a chicken & duck farm from a young man who caught it from a duck then conscription meant he spread it through his camp then got posted along with others to Europe. So American flu would be more apt! Might be wrong but sure I read or saw this recently.

Think it was called Spanish flu simply because Spain being neutral in WW1 could report and did on it openly. It was hushed up elsewhere (bad for moral etc).

Edited by Yellow Fever
50,000,000 deaths. USA origin
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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

What on earth has happened with France's reported numbers today? 1400+ deaths and 11000 new cases? Must be either a new way of reporting (eg. including community) or a one off blip? Huge increase.

France had a couple of days with deaths above 1000 a day last week, they actually did include a lot of nursing and care home deaths, but the stats today, 11,000  new cases and 1400 deaths, apparently do not include the same as last week. The French authorities  banned outdoor exercise as they knew these horror figures were coming, theyve even admitted today they have not reached the peak yet. Indeed its shaping up to be worse than Italy.  Also, be prepared to see such figures here to in the coming days, as we are a few days behind France.

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5 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

France had a couple of days with deaths above 1000 a day last week, they actually did include a lot of nursing and care home deaths, but the stats today, 11,000  new cases and 1400 deaths, apparently do not include the same as last week. The French authorities  banned outdoor exercise as they knew these horror figures were coming, theyve even admitted today they have not reached the peak yet. Indeed its shaping up to be worse than Italy.  Also, be prepared to see such figures here to in the coming days, as we are a few days behind France.

Being just behind France E, and what you've outlined confirms a worry I've had .... because I've been surprised that UK new active cases have not increased in rate over the last few days. Those French spikes are disconcerting.

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The problem with all our data is that it is not necessarily comparable to other countries.  In the UK people are only tested if in hospital (so potentially tens(?) of thousands ill at home/old people’s homes are excluded)  + deaths are only being recorded as Covid-related if in hospital (ditto the above) which means both are grossly understated.  
We also have a rather sinister thing of older folk being told to fill out DNR forms when perfectly fit, the idea being that paramedics won’t then attend. 
 

One knock-on is our apparently awful death rate compared to others - 10%?or thereabouts compared to 1-2% elsewhere -  but this is far more related to the measurement.

It does seem the goal is to keep (some of) the stats down rather than report correct data - surely it would be better to be right.  The truth will come out in the end, but it’ll be way down the road and no doubt be all-but negated by other things 

Edited by Branston Pickle
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